Three Ways To Tell If North Korea Is Serious About Giving Up Nukes
With this week’s visit of North Korean envoy Kim Kye Gwan to New York, it’s deja vu all over again — with yet another U.S. administration hoping to wheedle Kim Jong Il into giving up his nuclear weapons program. The Washington Post has just published an AP story with the timeless headline, “US seeking signs that NKorea serious about giving up atomic weapons for better relations.”
The U.S. has sought such signs before — with the 1994 Agreed Framework, the 2007 denuclearization deal, and round after round of feelers and talks betwixt and between. While the U.S. has been doing all that sign-seeking, which has by now spanned more than 17 years and the administrations of three American presidents, Pyongyang has conducted two nuclear tests, unveiled a uranium enrichment program, and been working away — in cahoots with Iran and other paragons of proliferation — on missiles to deliver nuclear warheads.
The unpleasant but obvious reality is that Kim Jong Il has no intention of giving up nukes. Without them, how could he or his designated son and heir continue the nuclear shakedown racket that has been core for years now to the survival of North Korea’s totalitarian regime? Kim doesn’t mind sending his envoys back to the negotiating table every so often, to collect whatever diplomatic loss leaders they can get. But a visit by Kim Kye Gwan to New York does not herald a sudden wish by Pyongyang to render up its nuclear program. It simply means that Kim is ready for a fresh intake of concessions and nuclear payoffs from the Free World.
If U.S. diplomats are serious about seeking signs that North Korea is serious about giving up its nuclear program, here are three signs they should be looking for:
1) Kim Jong Il and his heirs have fled North Korea, and are begging for asylum — perhaps as guests in exile of someone like Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe.
2) Having kicked out Kim Jong Il and his heirs, North Koreans have emptied their prison camps, opened the country’s borders, and are asking for help in dismantling the country’s nuclear weapons program — the better to spend scarce resources not on nuclear weapons, missiles, and a swollen military; but on feeding, doctoring and rebuilding a society maimed, starved and stunted by more than six decades of dynastic rule by Kim Jong Il and his late father Kim Il Sung.
3) Corollary to signs #1 and #2 above: There will be no need to seek signs that North Korea is serious about giving up nukes. North Korea will make it unmistakably obvious.
Diplomats might reasonably object that none of these conditions currently apply, and we must deal with the world as it is. To which one might reasonably respond that, in that case, it is time to stop endlessly chasing after fantasies of North Korean good faith that doesn’t exist, stop entertaining Kim Kye Gwan and his cohorts in New York, and put a lot more effort into creating conditions that will produce the above signs #1, #2, and #3.
- Will Kim Jong-il attack South Korea again as he did on Chon-Ahn warship and Yon-Pyong Island? Yes, 100% for sure.
- Will Kim Jong-il test his nuclear weapons and missiles again? Of course, 100% for sure.
- Is Kim Jong-il to give up his nuclear weapons? Never! 0% chance!
- Is Kim Jong-il to dismantle the political prisoner’s camps in North Korea? No! 0% chance!
- Kim Jong-il will stop publicly executing innocent people in North Korea? No! Not likely.
- Is Kim Jong-il going to open up and reform the way Red China did? No, he cannot even if he wants to. It is suicidal for his dynasty. So, again 0% chance.
- Can Kim Jong-il feed his own people? No, he will not and cannot. Starving his own people is a way of control for this evil.
- Will Kim Jong-il let go of the defectors to China and South Korea? 0%! He cannot afford to.
Kim Jong-il lives from 0% to 100% on all these issues. All or nothing! Life and murder! He is 100% on killing people, and 0% on saving people.
The State Department wants to talk to Kim Kye Kwan again? For what?
They cannot stop another Chon-Ahn or Yon-Pyong Island.
They cannot stop another nuclear test.
They cannot have Kim dismantle the political prisoner’s camps.
They cannot make Kim open up and reform.
They should not send food aid to Kim Jong Il to make his army fatter.
The situation is “NO WAY OUT!”
But, there is a WAY! North Korean Human Rights!
Attack Kim Jong-il, harass South Korean government, make trouble to the State Department with NK Human Rights!
Do not kill your people, Kim Jong-il!
Dismantle the political prisoner’s camps, Kim Jong-il!
Stop publicly executing the innocent refugees, Kim Jong-il!
Send back the people you kidnapped to South Korea, Japan, and other countries!
Go to hell, Kim Jong-il!
The one thing about nuclear weapons is that you cannot eat them. North Korea may have nuclear weapons, but it is painfully low on all types of food. North Korea’s population is literally starving to death and the government is doing very little about it. What we need to do is keep up the pressure of embargoes against North Korea, with possibly even a naval blockade. North Korea has been famous for trying to smuggle weapons out of the country on board ships, so ships leaving North Korea need to be followed and eventually stopped and searched. If we stopped North Korea’s ability to get cash through weapons sales, the country really will go broke and Kim will be finished.
Will a naval blockade start yet another war in Korea? Maybe, but Kim knows he will lose it, even though he will try to take down his whole country with him. If we try to prevent this by reaching out to some of his top generals and bribing them, then they may be convinced to switch sides and possibly even kill Kim in a coup. It is a long shot, but one we really should be taking. With Kim facing a lot of internal turmoil, he may not have the strength to launch another war, let alone try to break an American naval blockade.
Ms. Rosett,
While agreeing with your premise, I must say that yours is a much too common sense answer to the challenge of not only NK but also Iran and the other bad actors who are blackmailing the US and the ‘west’. It seems our leaders are committed to constantly repeating the same ‘solutions’ no matter the continued failure of same. Yes, Albert, they are insane and we the people are deluded if we actually believe they (our leaders AND the bad actors) are actually going to change their stripes, spots, whatever. The current policies suit their agendas and the ‘common folk’ don’t pay enough attention as a whole and can continue to be fooled.
Couermaeghan in 29 Palms, CA
There is a forth indicator! The NKs are serious if all the NKs formerly surnamed “Pak,” have officially changed their last names to “Johansen.”
It is indeed worthwhile to stay in reality, when considering North Korea. The truth is that no American President can do much about NK; madmen and scoundrels run that nation with an iron hand. However it is certainly obvious that Presidential candidate John Kerry’s criticisms of his rival, G. Bush, were/are absurd. (Does any one remember the hot conflict: talk unilaterally with the nut. Or not.) China feeds NK, or rather feeds the men with the guns. From recent reports, even this is not enough; soldiers are going hungry. A crown sits lightly when armed men are starving.
Clinton gave them oil to keep them from freezing, and would have given them a nuclear power plant had they not gone loopy. That did not work. South Korea tried flowers and poetry, while demonstrating against the US military. This resulted in a sunk destroyer and murdered people who were shelled by canon.
The clock ticks. They have the bomb. Some day they will make it small and light enough to fit on the top of a multistage missile. The next day Hawaii may not exist; it depends on NK kindness and sanity, a thin reed indeed.
The NK civilians eat bugs, grass and tree bark. Millions have starved. Perhaps, after some crisis de jour, we should have another Berlin air lift, except not land but drop bags of rice in the country side. Inside each bag would be a 9 MM and a few clips of ammo. Or not. This might precipitate some decisions in NK and China. They, now, enjoy kicking the can down the road.
There’s no ‘like’ button here, so I’ll just say ‘I love this article’. A fresh breath of honesty in our delusional times.
Throughout sundry American administrations, the Norks and Kim Jong (mentally) Il have been as serious about giving up nukes as I’ve been about giving up the internet or red wine
They’ve played administrations like fools, exploiting the très academique inclination to deal in elegant little (albeit largely meaningless) negotiations.
The Russians play similarly on using our version of diplomacy to wrangle concessions and weaken us.
Expanding on P.T. Barnum…”There’s a sucker born every minute and half of them gravitate to Washington DC.”
Greetings:
Since the recent analog-to-digital TV signal conversion, I’ve been watching the (South) Korean Broadcasting System’s KBS World channel. What has come across to me, in both its news programs and dramas, is the deep emotional wound the Korean people are suffering due to the partition of their country. This is a result of both their history, the long time it took them to unify into a nation state, and their Confucian-type culture which views social disruptions almost as familial events.
Obviously, I have no great advice for them, but I was a bit disappointed that, once again and despite the recent atrocities by the Kim regime, the South has decided to provide more food aid to their cousins in the North. I see this as emblematic of the deep emotional bond that the South Koreans feel with their relatives in the North. The South is such a success in terms of its economy and democracy, even though that took several decades to come to its fruition, that I have to think if the Kim regime were dismantled, the Korean people would respond at least as well as the Germans in re-unifying their country.
As it is now, it’s like when your best buddy is in love with an evil woman. There’s really nothing you can say or do to fix the problem.