The Problem with Iran Is Not Lack of Communication
“Groundhog day, over and over again,” is how Ambassador John Bolton has described U.S. efforts to talk with Iran, saying all such talks achieve is to buy time for Iran to work on its nuclear weapons program. That was in 2009, and right he was. There were talks with Iran before that — in 2009 Michael Ledeen linked to a list of more than 28 high-level U.S.-Iran meetings held from 2001-2008, under the Bush administration. President Obama arrived in office with an extended hand, offering “mutual respect,” and yet more talking — recall the December 2009 flop in Geneva.
Yet, with tensions high over tougher sanctions on Iran, and Iran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, here come the calls for Groundhog day, again. From Trita Parsi, with his knack for channeling policies that benefit Iran, not the U.S., comes an op-ed in Friday’s Washington Post, “How Obama should talk to Iran.” Parsi’s prescription is that the U.S. administration drop sanctions and shower Iran with (more) offers of respect: “Talk to everyone — and talk a lot.” Implying that Iran’s power structure is similar to that of the U.S. (by way of quoting an unnamed “prominent journalist” close to the foreign minister of Turkey to that effect), Parsi urges a “process” that would have U.S. officials engaging — respectfully, of course — in “sustained” palaver with a panoply of Iranian “power centers,” including “the supreme leader’s office, the parliament,the president’s circle of advisers, the National Security Council and influential clergymen.” Parsi would have the U.S. jabber away for however long it might take to build a “strong rapport” with Iran, in expectation that eventually the happy day would arrive on which Iran’s regime would have talked with so many U.S. officials, for so long, that Tehran would no longer feel the need to pursue nuclear weapons. (Of course, by then Iran’s regime would almost certainly have nuclear weapons — but let’s not be dissuaded by such tedious practical considerations…).
Also writing in the Washington Post, on “Steps to Defuse a Crisis,” David Ignatius more modestly suggests that the U.S. and Iran need a back channel for direct communication. For this purpose, he would like to volunteer CIA director Gen. David Petraeus, and the head of Iran’s Quds Force, Gen. Qassem Suleimani. Ignatius notes that “Some would argue Suleimani is the heart of the problem” — what with some U.S. officials believing he was probably aware of the Quds assassination plot that the Justice Department alleges was meant to blow up the Saudi ambassador in Washington, D.C. But Ignatius suggests that “precisely because Suleimani heads Iran’s most powerful intelligence network, messages through him would carry special weight.”
The unwashed Americans clinging to their Bbiles, and weapons might be against more foolish talk, but the puke blue UN supporting CFR controled American government believes in the New Age lie of everyone is good inside. You just have to keep talking to find it.
Plus, Iran’s desire to destroy Jews, and Israel seem to be shared with the global gocvernment,(see CFR global government), who see Israel as the problem in the Middle East. Therefore, Iran’s Islamic view of Israel is understood.
Foe example, the present American governement denies attacking the latest Iranian nuke Scientist. If the US state they did not do in the strongest terms, then who is DaOne stating did? would that be Russia, China, or Israel?
Shouldn’t we be quiet? Not tiping our hat towards someone else?
The obvious answer is to shower the mullahs with free iPads. That way they would enter into a dialogue with us through Apple in order to get an app online to bring forth the Twelfth Imam, thus distracting them from their nuclear ambitions. As I always say, Armageddon? There’s an app for that.
“Thomas Friedman” – outstanding
Claudia, I believe you’re at least partially wrong on that. It is about communication, to wit, that we have not convinced the Iranians that we will swat them like flies if they act out against us.
With Barry Sotero running the show, it’s hard to see how they could glean any message but that we will not act, and so they keep pushing and pushing.
Not for nothing were they scared to death of Reagan, because they understood he would indeed stomp them flat if they did something stupid against us.
Scared of Reagan? They were so afraid that they murdered 250 marines in Beirut. And afterward had their concerns confirmed when they suffered nothing because of it. I think amused but cautious better describes the relationship.
BTW, in case no one has noticed, the Iranian bomb is being built for use on the US not Israel. For the Mullahs destroying Israel would be a pleasure, destroying the US is a necessity.
I’d say Reagan was more likely to use force to punish enemies than most. The Gulf of Sidra comes to mind, for example. And certainly they had some real trepidation about him – else why release our hostages literally right before he took office?
Anyways, the point was, we aren’t communicating lines in the sand very well to the Mullahs, and each time we don’t do something real, rather than “jaw jaw jaw,” the more emboldened they become.
If Iran killed those marines then Americans killed whoever anyone says is a proxy for us. No one knows who is responsible for those Marine deaths and to simply lay it at the feet of Iran is goofy. Iran is not in Lebanon but we were.
Frenz,
Hezbollah’s Imad Mugniyah is believed to have masterminded the bombing. What is sometimes forgotten is the US Embassy was bombed, and the French by Shiites as America started supporting the Christians in a civil war.
Hezbollah was not very big then, but is very large, and supported/armed by Iran.
I think Mugniyah is dead now. Shipped.
Anyway, Hezbollah has enough American blood on their hands to call them at war with us. As such, we should not leave them alive if Iran’s military is destroyed. Go ahead, and include Hamas in there with them for good measure.
Iran is not in Lebanon but we were.
But Iran set up the crew that rid Beirut of over 200 marines who were there to put a stop to the civil war Arafat and the Syrians started.
Hezbollah is in Lebanon and it is Iran’s Foreign Legion.
Frenz – You’d better have a chat with Hassan Nasrallah and his senior officials and convince them that Iran does not exercise guidance and control over Hizb’allah. They don’t seem to agree with you (http://jerusalemcenter.wordpress.com/2011/06/20/hizbullah%E2%80%99s-veneration-of-iranian-leader-ali-khamenei/).
I would say the better analogy is swatting them like bees. There will be some stings, but the longer we wait, the bigger the hive gets and the more stings we will receive. SWAT ‘em already!
Bolton is right, we yak, Iran builds its nuclear program.
Think of all the barrels of ink that have been exhausted on the blah blah blah of international politics. There hasn’t been any better analysis & advice since “Speak softly and carry a big stick.”
A’jad in the hemisphere last week, trying to look tough, yakking with 2 very sick idiotlogues, should give rise to mockery and scorn.
And sticks.
There has been talks, and more talks. What is everybody missing? They have been at WAR with us for over 30 years and we want to talk?? The sanctions are always subverted by one or more countries. There has been the Stuxnet virus that contaminated their software and the killing of nuclear scientists.
But the one thing they would listen to is “the big stick”. No one, not even Bush, was able to communicate this clearly and mean it. Who in this world respects Obama. Nope, they’re laughing behind their backs. He’s weak and the U.S. voters are even weaker for electing him.
related, worth reading – http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2012/01/out-of-options-in-egypt.html
That article is NOT worth the reading. It is ignorant propaganda by yet another blogger who insists on speaking authoritatively about Egypt without knowing what’s going on. It is a great weakness of bloggers to write about things outside their actual knowledge and to also repeat false rumors and myths. A plane ticket to Egypt is not that expensive. Go and report and stop with the Muslim Brotherhood has taken over scenario already. If the people in Egypt don’t know what’s going to happen, of what worth is a keyboard and the will to use it by an outsider who’s sheer intellect cuts through all nuance?
Saile,
I just read the article and found it to be right on the money. I recommend it. What is your problem with it? That it takes a hard line? What is happening in Egypt is grim, and likely will get grimmer. Perhaps a hard line is required.
“…a country divided between the Islamists who want to chop off heads now and the Islamists who think that it’s wiser to consolidate their power before chopping off heads.”
You think that’s right on political analysis? It’s idiotic. It wasn’t even being sarcastic.
So, what’s wrong with the article? It’s wrong.
Prof. Barry Rubin is a well regarded analyst of Radical Islamic movements and has assessed that MB is extremely influential in post-Mubarak Egypt. He’s also the Middle East Editor for PJM. Many of PJMs other writers have come to a similar conclusion.
Are they all also engaged in “write(ing) about things outside their actual knowledge and to also repeat false rumors and myths”?
Well, actually going to Egypt while at the same time not hating them would be a good start.
You’re a propagandist appearing on different threads with different names (even on this single thread you used two), but by now I’ll recognize your style and message everywhere. You incessantly repeat the lie that Barry Rubin is motivated by hatred and Islamophobia in the hope that if you’d repeat it often enough people will start believing it and disregard what he writes, as well as apparently what any other person that doesn’t agree with the line you’re trying to promote writes. However, considering the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists gained a solid majority in the Egyptian election it is certainly with reason and rationality that people assess there’s more than a very good chance that they will rule Egypt. And concidering the ideology and views expressed in speech and in writing in Arabic by members of these movements, both recently and over the many decades of their existence, and knowing their history and background, it’s with reason that people are worried about the consequences of such movements becoming the leaders of the largest Arab country.
So you’re saying the army hasn’t yet turned over the power, so we can’t know what will happen. Maybe they won’t rule Egypt after all, even though they won the election. This is a legitimate point to make, but considering they did win the election, saying that anyone who does fear an Islamist rule in Egypt does so on the basis of ignorance and irrational hatred is nothing but empty propaganda line to delegitimize your opponents and stifle any rational discourse.
LoL – You are the Snooki of PJM comments, reduced to complaining about “haters”.
Want to bet? Obama will bomb Iran or make warring noises in the summer, latest in September to show he is tough before the first Tue of Nov. Anyone critcises him on anything will be pro-Iran, pro-Islamist, and impeding the war effort. His race card is maxed out, he is recharging with an anti-Islamist card.
Saile – I apologize – i will now urge readers to not click on that link -
as it lacks – nuance —
although i have been to Egypt in past, i think i’ll decline your offer to visit now, –
do you have any information you can share on the state of the tourist business these days in Egypt? – how is the overall economic situation shaping up, now that they have – democracy.
I assume from what you write you are in Egypt – can you let us know what is going on now?
Admitting you like stereotyped comic book versions of political events isn’t exactly making your case.
Here is an example of nuance the runs against stereotype and is true: in the 17th century 400 British ships were attacked by Turkish pirates in the Med and some 6,000 British were captives in N.Africa. Few wished to return and the reconversion to English society was so upsetting a theme that there was a parliamentary debate around 1640 – I’m going on memory.
Cornwall was at least twice attacked by Turks and captives carried off.
This is an example of knowledge that challenges the unwashed narrative, of nuance that flies in the face of these completely unnuanced stereotypes of Egypt as Iran and heads being lopped off that you are resistant too. Fine, read stupid articles like this and ask for the Bugs Bunny supplement too.
It could be true, sort of. It is not conversation that is the problem but the person doing the talking. Send Nancy Pelosi. Remember what a bang up job she did in Syria. Certainly one of the best of the best. A gal for all seasons so to speak. A person of such deep understanding of religion, economics, and politics should be able to talk some “turkey” with those worldly mullah. Fait accompli.
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“Also writing in the Washington Post, on ‘Steps to Defuse a Crisis,’ David Ignatius more modestly suggests that the U.S. and Iran need a back channel for direct communication”
-we’re already getting enough directly in the back channel from these maniacs.
Bolton had it right.
Groundhog Day.
Isn’t what is proposed exactly what we have been doing for the past 30 years with North Korea?
All that results are deals where we provide them something they want in return for the promise of future concessions, which never appear.
As was pointed out, we were talking to Iran from 2001 to 2008 with no appreciable change. I’m afraid that if the Obama administration started talking with Iran they would feel the need to offer something to them to get some meaningless promise.
The Iranians aren’t stupid and they can see how well that has worked for the North Koreans.
Carcajou – Saile
with apologies to the Bard
to read or not to read: that is the question:
whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer ignorance
the slings and arrows of outrageous criticism
or to guide eyes toward a sea of troubles
and by opposing end them? to die: to read
no more: and by not reading to say we end
the heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
that minds are heir to, ’tis a consummation
devoutly to be wish’d. to search, to read
to read: perchance to learn: ay. there’s the rub;
for in that searching and reading what dreams may come
—————
some of my favorite music, is classical or traditional Persian – played on the Santur, a Persian hammered dulcimer
My interest in Egypt is Historical – i have stood at the top of the pyramids, and plumbed their depths,
i am greatly saddened by both of their recent histories, as well as that of the whole mid-east — i wish it could be different – there is much wonder there and histories beyond understanding – due to the present situation, i doubt if i will ever visit them again – i send my best wishes to the inhabitants of those ancient lands
No, the problem is not communication. We’ve communicated very well that we’re a bunch of milquetoast pansy wusses and they can tweak us any time and any way they desire and we’ll do nothing about it.
The current situation is a victory for the ‘at least we’re talking’ crowd.
I listen to the same argument by Trita Parsi on NPR,I was thinking that these people will never learn.
The iranian secular opposition exposed trita parsi as the IR lobbyist in the U.S long time ago. I wonder when the media can open their eyes and be balanced.
While the Iranian secular opposition is totally ignored sellouts like Trita Parsi get all the attention.
history evolves – there are peoples throughout the mid-east, who would prefer a – less – regimented – life – a change towards – freedom – individual freedom – actual democracy – a chance to prosper by their own efforts – and be rewarded by their own efforts – not by crime or alignment, but just by their own efforts –
to us in the west – this is a fundamental, well understood, and in most cases, possible future – to those in the east, it is still a dream
i hope dreams come true
Trita Parsi is an agent of the Iranian government who is trying to buy time for Iran to produce nuclear weapons. Kind of like the Japanese who were negotiating with us in DC when Pearl Harbor was bombed. We have enough communication with Iran-Ahmadinejad is adjunct faculty at Columbia U in New York and gets free perks whenever he stays in a Pritzker hotel
I concluded in 2004 that no one was going to do anything serious about the Iranian attempt to get nuclear weapons and that they would, therefore, succeed. There is nothing you can offer the Ayatollahs that would persuade them to give up their quest for nukes. To gain such weapons they have impoverished the country and risked internaional isolation. The benefits they anticipate from possessing nukes are so great that there is nothing that outweighs their desire for them.
Nuclear bombs will make Iran top dog in the Middle East. It will make them invulnerable to any retaliation for their terrorist wars with numerous enemies. It will allow them to use nuclear blackmail on any other states they wish, especially after they mate nukes to missiles. It will enable them to conduct massive terrorist attacks on the US and Britain using smuggled nukes (using proxies so that the attacks will not be directly traceable to Iran). And it will allow them to nuke Tel Aviv, annihilating those uppity untermenschen the Jews with a single blow. It will allow them to cause the world-wide chaos that will herald the return of the 12th Imam. Compared to these desiderata, what can we offer them to get them to refrain from building nuclear weapons?
To all those who are complacent about the Iranian drive for nukes, what part of “Death to the Great Satan” do you not understand?
Claudia,
It’s not the number of communications that is the problem, on that you are quite right. It’s the message inherent in the communications. After six years of the Euro 5, ‘negotiating’ with Iran over the nuclear program the Iranians essentially thanked them for all the extra time that their oh so sophisticated diplomats bought for Iran……….no charge!!
As each pressure point is reached the Iranians signal that; possibly, maybe, they might be willing to ‘talk’. In each and every case nothing changed othere than more time to pursue nuclear ambitions.
The communication gambit has reached the point where the communication should acutually have a point. STOP or we will STOP YOU!
That message is not going to come from the Obama Administration, it’s not going to come from Europe, nor Russia or China. We can only hope that between the growing internal resistance and Israel we can hold them off long enough to actually do something about them.
#18 –
well, it would also make them deader than doorknobs –
they could possible get off a first strike – as could the well equipped Russians and Chinese – but you can’t really hide things like this — it may not be publicly known – and details may be obscured – but – there are not a lot of militaries who have this capability – and none who can adequately hide their capability or use – it will be known to a degree adequate to retaliate, as nuke warfare cannot be allowed to go on – as – if you will note – it has not since the first, and only, two were dropped on Japan, decisively ending that war – I suspect that the development of these weapons in n.korea, iran, syria – are all well known enough to not only retaliate immediately, but to preempt – and there is the present danger – the possibility of preemptive strikes – probably of conventional but probably unusual, means – and the ‘collateral’ damage that goes along with that. i suspect we will see unconventional preemption, as we perhaps already are – with the suxnet virus and the small magnetic car bombs attached by motorcycle – and the other interesting events that are not well reported, but have happened – well before any actual use of nuclear devices by any of them — it is always possible, the US southern boarder is pretty much open to all kinds of smuggling, not a good thing – and other lapses of security world wide — but i also suspect that any use, would not be dithered about – and would, unfortunately, be decisively retaliated.
and to those who have criticized my writings – this is not what i would like to happen, it is just observation and comment – please try to be rational and not personal in your replies – i don’t ‘hate’ anyone, per say – and not the Egyptians nor Persians in general – nor any other peoples, as a group – i do understand that there are individuals who would harm – or ‘hate’ – me, due to my opinions and beliefs and ideas – not much i can do about that i suppose. such is life. flail away if you wish.