The Long Rough Awakening of Russia
To my astonishment, the call went through. I reached Douglass North, and gave him a rundown on what I was witnessing in Russia. Then I asked him how long it would take before Russia might become a normal, free and, democratic society — in which both the utilities and the political institutions really worked. I was hoping against hope for an answer with a time horizon within the decade or so.
North replied: “Oh, about 50 years.”
He went on to explain that when a society has been through something as monumentally destructive as decades of Soviet rule, it can take generations to turn around the implicit rules, and create truly functional democratic institutions. I asked if there were any chance it might go faster. He said that even with luck and wisdom, it would take at least another generation coming of age.
Here we are, a generation later. The trajectory does not look good. How rough it might yet become is a big and terrible question, and the folly of expecting any simple “reset” in Russian state policy — whether foreign or domestic — should be brutally clear. But something other than Putinism is simmering in Russia. If, in this long and turbulent story, it comes to something good, that awakening began with the end of the USSR. For that, among so many other reasons, we can honor this day.
“It was a queasy time, fascinating but difficult. No one knew quite what the rules were anymore. Nothing worked the way one wanted it to. As one source explained it to me, no one even knew anymore whom to bribe.”
I lived in Moscow for a number of years, starting in 1997. I heard stories of the early days, when Christmas decorations were “allowed.” Suddenly, every little kiosk and storefront had them, but the reason was that they thought it was required. No one could quite believe that they were actually being given a choice to have the decorations or not. So, in fear, they quickly acquired some kind of ornamentation and placed them, so that everything would be uniform and they would be safe. I think there is still much fear in Russia of being different.
70 years is more than two generations, and that much time under communism is soul-destroying. Many westerners were amazed that Russian house cleaners, even when paid extremely well, would always be late or simply not show up. (I was not one of those westerners!)
Today, there is a disturbing similarity between the myriad, contradictory laws of Russia (which would allow any inspector to fine you no matter what you had done, thus necessitating the bribe) and the exploding regulatory burden here in the US.
I also have not given up on the Russian people. My only complaint is that they are too good at suffering, that is to say, too passive. More than two generations of communism creates such passivity as a simple survival mechanism, and they have to shake that off. The intelligent and brave ones are in the streets, more power to them.
It is actually worse than the 70 years of communism. Before that it was the tsars and the nobility. They average Russians don’t have a heritage of freedom and equality they can look back to for guidance. I hope they can slowly and steadily build a better life for themselves.
They also basically competely detroyed the religion of the Jewish population. We know have to live with the effects of this here in Israel.
And before them the mongols and tatars.
Having no real mountain ranges to defend their great land, the slavs were overrun by each and every people that came by.
And perhaps you now know from whence we get the word slave.
Dear Ms. Rosset, while you’re getting enthusiastic about a possible Color Revolution in Russia, you need to wake up to the status quo crumbling closer to home.
If you told me six months ago that there was a serious prospect that Vladimir Putin would lose the first round of balloting in Russia’s upcoming presidential vote this March, I would have laughed at you. And that Ron Paul almost beats
Mitt Romney in a Virginia populated by federal employees he’d lay off if given the chance? Well that’s also so improbable as to be laugh out loud funny, but then again, all the candidates PJM’s been backing besides Romney failed spectacularly to get on the Virginia ballot when many also-rans made it in 2008. So either the Establishment wants to hasten the dreadful inevitibility of Romney, or the stars are aligning for Ron Paul to make this an actual fight for the nomination, not a coronation of the latest Establishment Man.
Any candidate, any man, can be ignored, or crushed. But a movement based on an idea whose time has come is invincible. You may beat back Ron Paul in 2012. You might even deflect Rand’s rise somehow after Romney goes down to defeat to Obama, because you feared losing the status quo more than losing your freedoms. But the fact that you all seem so incredibly terrified of one not-so-charismatic 76-year-old man says it all. You can beat him. You will not beat his movement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE30TH6Y7cI
“you all seem so incredibly terrified of one not-so-charismatic 76-year-old man”
Firstly, you’re lumping everyone here together in a grossly imprecise generalization. Secondly, it’s the fanatical element among Paul’s base of support which has the potential to “terrify”, more so than the man himself. So far I haven’t seen any mild-mannered Paul supporters condemn the large proportion of angry, hate-spewing extremists who post ugly, bigoted, hostile messages ubiquitously on the net. Something about Paul and his agenda has unleashed the hounds, and their barking is growing louder.
As for the man himself, you should watch some old videos of Paul from the early 1990′s or before. He comes across as much more measured, even-tempered, thoughtful and articulate. Unfortunately, he’s become more cantankerous, impatient, inarticulate and easily flustered with age. Those negatives are only going to get worse. Even if you like his policies, you and other Paul supporters ought to consider that he may have exceeded his “best before” date. He’ll be 78 in his first year in office. What’s even more “terrifying” than the fanatics who support him is that his increasingly sclerotic brain may be at the helm of the nation, contending with a very complex and dangerous world.
Age isn’t always relevant in a candidate, especially nowadays when modern medicine exists to assist and maintain us physically and mentally longer than ever before. But sometimes it IS a factor. On top of all the other reasons put forth as to why Ron Paul shouldn’t be President, his slightly but noticeably deteriorating intellect ought to give all voters pause.
Ron Paul – a very old man in an extreme hurry. An explosive, self destructive mix. In his madness, Paul is ready to pull the entire America towards the abyss together with him.
Ron Paul is not my favorite candidate for president, but I will vote for him against Barack Obama because Obama *is* pulling us towards the abyss. Paul may or may not succeed in pushing US society uphill towards freedom but a failed Paul presidency will be a great deal better than an Obama 2nd term.
However, I have to admit that I tend to agree with Ron Paul almost 100% on all domestic issues. Even on the issue of decriminalisation of drugs believing that only a strict definition and execution of the so called “PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY” can combat that horrendous social pathology.
In that case Ron Paul resembles the tragic, doomed figure Dr Jeckyl and Mr Hyde from R.L.Stephenson’s novel. When paul deals with the domestic policy, he is like the benevolent, wise dr Jeckyl. As soon he attempts to take on the international policy, he instantly morphes into that revolting, self-destructive monster – mr Hyde.
Thank you for your input to an otherwise silly argument maintained by a fatuous and smug commentariat both Left and Right.
I had a similar experience with a Latin industrialist, former Cuban, who visited Cuba often and whose advice, though never taken, was highly valued by their plutocrats right up to Fidel. Not long before he died I got to ask him how long he thought it would take for Cuba to ‘turn around’. He said:
“It took them 50 years to get here, it’ll take another 50 to get out of it, and another generation at least to show lasting improvement. If they continue as they are, the factor of time to recover may be more than just double.”
Leftist Americans, take note.
> Leftist Americans, take note.
What lesson do you want them to learn from your comment?
One lesson is that every year that they hang on takes two years to undo.
Remember, these are the folks who are currently trashing Vaclav Havel, saying that he ignored all the good that communism did the eastern bloc countries.
Obama could (not to waste this sweet spot) show a sign! Visit Cuba,Visit Moscow,give Russia some breathing room to worry about Iran,and North Korea.Dare he also enter an Eastern Orthodox church?
Commmmoonnn,put the gulf clubs down and give the Russian youth something to sing about!
As I maintain, you can educate a population in a generation but it can take centuries to civilize them.
Does anyone have a good grasp of how many people are protesting? I’ve heard reports ranging from fewer than a thousand to tens of thousands, but in aggregate fewer overall than our own OWS numbers.
Protesting against totalitarianism, propaganda, graft and corruption of communism in one country, protesting for totalitarianism, propaganda, graft and corruption in the other.
Can we trade the people in their streets for the people in ours?
Or is freedom just another word for nothing left to lose?
please don’t compare these brave Russian protestors to the ows crowd. people in this country are so spoiled they will riot over not getting the ‘coolest’ shoes for Christmas. these folks in Russia are literally risking their lives protesting against a dictator. we have a fairly incompetent dictator in training, they have a kgb trained one. we have a constitution to fall back on and hold up as practically sacrosanct. they have many decades of soul rending communism garbage to eject from their system.
with that being said, both systems show some revealing similarities. both of our election systems are rife with commie voter fraud, both have partisan officials ruling against keeping the elections pure, both have the majority of the press carrying water for the politburo, as it were, and both have hoardes of corrupt officials. both also appear to be broke, compliments of many well connected thieves.
there are probably many more similarities, as we may be crossing paths here in time. one system struggling internally as it sinks slowly and methodically into communism, and one maybe striving to find its way out. i suggest that these two countries may have one critical thing in common. if either freedom party loses this next ‘free’ election to communists, it will probably be their last.
i won’t mention the part about both commie leaders in both countries having an affinity for photo-ops and standing in front of mirrors.
” we have a constitution to fall back on and hold up as practically sacrosanct”
If you can keep it. I maintain it’s mostly already gone.
Another big difference. . . . we have guns. . . . the Russian citizens do not. The 2nd Amendment is about the only thing holding back the “o”s plans. As long as it stands, and we have strong state governments that weill defy the fed’s power grabs, we may yet survive, but I am not holding my breath. . . . and I keep stocking up on “supplies”.
“Yet so tumultuous is the world right now that the 20th anniversary of the Soviet collapse is figuring as little more than a footnote in the news.”
It is little more than a footnote because to the lefties in the MSM it proved that their idolized system – communism – was a failure.
#9 daveinga: “please don’t compare these brave Russian protestors to the ows crowd…”.
I didn’t.
Great post. It is because we’re somewhat ignorant of the roots of our own founding that Americans believe democracies spontaneously burst from nothing. Let’s hope something good comes from Russia..
The Chinese example suggests that for a nation that has never known freedom but now wishes to discard communism, fascism may be a better fit for that nation than democratic capitalism.
My feeling is that China and Russia will have nominally private sectors but under rigid authoritarian control: Fascism.
They’ll have to make that work first.
They’ve got it (fascism-an extreme version of it) already. How it is working for them?
Compare the Russian “highways” outside Moscow with the BILION dollar palace Putin is buildin for himself in Crimea.
The only places where the semi-authoritarian control worked were Spain and later Chile, but it was because both Franco and Pinochet were commited democrats operating in the circumstances when the real democracy was unworkable.
It took them thirty years to reailse their dream about a true democracy.
As it proved later though, even those thirty years were not enough.
Putin or Hu Jin Tao are as friendly towards democracy as would be Himler or Goering.
Their strategic aim is not to improve their people’s lot but the destruction of America.
Russian history has preconditioned them for a lot longer than 70 years, I’m afraid.
The Tzars and later, the commisars, learned their trade from the Mongols. Indeed, the Mongol Yoke has never left Russia.
If Putin is successful in this latest attempt to rule by cult of personality, then he will just be the latest in a very long line of such Russian rulers going back to Ivan the Terrible.
There is something in the Russian psyche that, especially in times of turmoil, reaches back to an all powerful leader. Even now we hear murmurings of nostalgia for the Soviet state and the glory days of Stalin.
“They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work.”
I am inclined to think that it may take the Russians a bit longer to get it. God help them and us.
With all due respec to the other commenters here, I wouldn’t say the protesters in Moscow are risking their lives, or even their livelihoods — witness New Jersey Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov joining the crowd. As a near 7 footer he can’t exactly blend in even without the Maybach and body guards.
“If Putin is successful in this latest attempt to rule by cult of personality, then he will just be the latest in a very long line of such Russian rulers going back to Ivan the Terrible.” Unfortunately there’s a lot of laziness and hackneyed ideas left over about Russia. I would have to agree with at least one true thing that Mikhail Khodorkovsky wrote from his (deserved) prison cell in Siberia 10 miles from the Chinese border — Putin has governed more liberally than a majority of the Russian population, particularly with respect to the West (you may have noticed Alexey Navalny has only achieved his popularity as an opposition politician by attacking NATO from time to time). The trouble with Putin is that he’s decided to stay too long, and he did in a way that seemed clumsily stage managed if not insulting to the urban upper middle class and those who aspire to such in Russia. In the regions, I still expect United Russia to do quite well — think of the Red vs. Blue split in the U.S. and then apply it to the map of Russia with the ‘liberal’ Blue areas in major urban centers i.e. mostly St. Petersburg and Moscow, analogous to New York and L.A. in the U.S.
And lastly, I’ll make one more point about PJM’s recent wave of Ron Paul hate/hysteria: they carried a paid advertorial from Porter Stansberry of Stansberry Research. They denounce Mr. Paul for appearing on the Alex Jones Show and associating with alleged crackpots, but guess who’s the Christmas guest of honor on Infowars today? None other than PJM advertiser Porter Stansberry! You can’t make this stuff up folks. If Newt is so incompetent and poorly organized that he can’t get 10,000 signatures from his neighbors in the most affluent on average suburbs in the country in northern VA, then he no amount of shilling for him here at PJM will maintain his crumbling facade. And no don’t tell me about Newt’s whining that it’s just soooooo hard, four also-ran candidates got on the VA ballot for Super Tuesday 2008 before bowing out to Senator McCain.
C’mon PJM, stop making asses of yourselves. At least pretend to be nuetral for a little while yet until the dreadfully inevitable Mitt Romney becomes the choice of Fox News and the GOP corporatist apparat.
Those 10,000 valid signatures can’t be gathered in just a few counties of Occupied Virginia. So, I gotta ask: what other key facts do your rants ignore?
How about this, how about we mind our own business about what other countries do, and focus some of this concern about “freedom” to the United States.
We have have more people in prison per capita than the supposed police states of Russia and China combined. Our police are more militarized than many militaries.
We have a crooked machine politician from Chicago as our president, who is looting the country. The other party isn’t any better, all the candidates but one are rushing us to war against Iran and will loot the country just as badly only giving money to their cronies.
Yes,we need to take the log out of our own eye before we take the speck out of theirs. We should be an example to others not a rubix cube.
The twenty years the Russians have just spent, even with the tremendous progress made by the Russian people, should put a chill up the spine of anyone contemplating what to do with North Korea once the inevitable unwinding takes place there. The Soviet Union, for all its faults, was much more open and free than North Korea, and its people better prepared to take their place in the world of 1993 than the North Koreans will be in 2012.
Russia is a bad comparison to North Korea. Think East Germany instead. Yes, North Korea is a lot worse than East Germany ever was, but like East Germany, they have relatives on the free side who will help rebuild after reunification.
Should Putin fall, who will take his place? Another autocrat. All of the options are, in fact, worse than Putin. The next leader of Russia will install his relatives and friends in high places, loot the country and hang onto power for as long as possible. It’s all they know. It’s what they do.
Little old ladies can get on airplanes without government officials rummaging through their underpants in Russia.
Well, not exactly. In Domodedova airport, everyone has to go through the “naked scanner.”
The Russians are very intelligent in the way they do this, however. Before you enter, there is a woman in a white lab coat seated at a screen who appears to be in her mid to late forties. She says, “Next … next … .” This excellent choice of personnel, including her quasi-medical garb, makes parents of teenage girls feel that their daughters have been treated with respect.
North replied: “Oh, about 50 years.”
Optimist. Russia had its first democracy in 1917 (or 1905, if you prefer the founding of the Duma). France had its first republic in 1789. Only with the founding of the fifth republic in 1958 did France settle on a democracy. And the French are trying to rid themselves of it, preferring instead to be governed by unelected nobles in Brussels. That’s not fifty years. It’s 180. Minimum, since it hasn’t yet succeded.
Optimist. Russia had its first democracy in 1917 (or 1905, if you prefer the founding of the Duma).
The 1905 Duma at least lasted a few years, even it’s power was rather limited compared to the Tsar’s. The “new, improved democracy” of 1917, while it had more power, was extinct within a few months. The Tsar abdicated in early March 1917 and a brief flowering of democracy broke out. Lenin seized power in early November (by the Western calendar), permitted the Duma elections scheduled by the Provisional Government, then promptly shut down the Duma at the end of the first day they met. The 1917 democracy didn’t survive even a year. And that was the last democracy the Russians experienced until Gorbachev.
The Jews had to wander 40 years in the wilderness before they were allowed to enter the Promised Land. They had to await the passing of those born in Egypt and to become ‘Born Again Jews’ as it were. Same principle holds in Russia. Ain’t it amazing, there really isn’t anything NEW under the sun. If it isn’t in the Bible, it’s in Shakespeare.
From what I read the party 2nd behind United Russia with the most votes was the Communist party. How can such a thing happen? I can ubderstand a liberal party but the Communists getting alot of votes? I’m not a fan of Putin, but to have the Communists come back to power would not be a good thing. But I’m sure it would be OK for the State Sept. and this Administration to have them back since they are birds of a feather. I can’t remember if “redistribution of wealth” was first said by Obama or Marx.
Yes! Not a middle aged bowl legged chunky male perv that TSA tends to hire!