North Korea and the Audacity of Nuclear Extortion
And the witness selected by North Korean authorities to make the virgin tour of the uranium enrichment plant at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, or at least to visit the control room and gaze through an observation window at what he has since described as a vista of “more than a thousand centrifuges,” was American nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker — a former director of Los Alamos, now at Stanford University. Hecker in the past has been a go-to guy for North Korean officials wishing to persuade Washington that Pyongyang poses a serious nuclear threat — part of the one-two punch in which Pyongyang threatens, and then extorts. In 2004, Hecker made a trip to North Korea, during which North Korean authorities gave him a look at their Yongbyon complex. Far from trying to hide their interest in nuclear weapons, they made a point of trying to show Hecker that they were on the way to producing them. Among the exhibits they offered him was a glass jar with a metal screw-on top, containing a sample of what they said was plutonium. Hecker returned to the U.S. to testify before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations — then including, as ranking member, Joe Biden — that there were many uncertainties about what he had witnessed in North Korea. But he also transmitted the message that North Korea officials had told him they had “weapons of mass destruction.” That, driven home by his tale of hefting plutonium in a jar (“The plutonium’s alpha radiation is easily stopped by a glass jar” he explained to the raptly listening senators), created quite a stir.
Earlier this month, together with two colleagues, Hecker made another trip to North Korea, and on Nov. 12th was treated to another supervised tour of the Yongbyon nuclear complex. On Nov. 20th, Hecker published a report on his trip, breaking the news of North Korea’s new uranium enrichment facility, with what he described as its “astonishingly modern” control room, from which he had gazed out through an observation window at the “stunning” view of “a modern, clean centrifuge plant of more than a thousand centrifuges all neatly aligned and plumbed below us.”
As ever, Hecker in his report was careful to note the uncertainties surrounding much of what he saw. He said his hosts informed him not only that the uranium facility is meant to provide electricity, but that the entire plant is the product of “strictly indigenous resources and talent,” and that the centrifuge cascades are already operating. Hecker said that while some of what he was told is plausible, and might be consistent with what he saw, he did not have independent confirmation of these things. This is, after all, North Korea, where you want to be extra careful about believing anything the authorities say. In 2002, confronted by the Bush administration over its uranium enrichment program, Pyongyang first admitted it, then denied it, then un-denied it, and is now evidently at pains to advertise it. (These are the same North Korean authorities who, on the day of Hecker’s visit to Yongbyon, were applauding themselves via the state-run Korean Central News Agency for promoting “long and happy life in good health” for the North Korean public by way of “the universal free medical care system.)
And yet, despite his scientifically punctilious caveats, Hecker ended up transmitting a message precisely consistent with the mix of threats and come-hither maneuvers that are the hallmark of the North Korean nuclear shakedown racket. Hecker, in his report, pondered what it all might mean. Under the heading “Where do we go from here?” he warned that while North Korea might be merely questing after electricity, there are certain complications — potentially “serious” — introduced by the “inherently dual-use nature of nuclear technology.” He concluded not only with a summary of what he had personally seen, but with a leap to the policy prescription he favors: “The only hope appears to be engagement.” He ruled out military force as an option. He ruled out tighter sanctions. He ruled out “waiting patiently for Pyongyang to return to the six-party talks on terms acceptable to the United States and its allies,” saying this would only “exacerbate the problem.”
In sum, by selecting Siegfried Hecker as the conduit, inviting him back to Yongbyon and handing him the hot exclusive of the first outsider tour of the new uranium enrichment plant (or at least of the “stunning” view from its control room), North Korea hit on the perfect messenger to whip up a storm over its threats, and couple that with a prescription that America return to the bargaining table — even if that means doing so on terms that ought to be utterly unacceptable to America and its allies. The State Department has already dispatched its North Korea envoy, Stephen Bosworth, for meetings this week in South Korea, Japan and China. Now, Pyongyang waits for the “engagement,” a.k.a. the payoff. And that, folks, is the art of the North Korean nuclear shakedown. Iran, as usual, is no doubt taking notes. One more reason to hope against hope that this time Washington will have the wisdom to depart from the Kim Jong Il script.
“I hate all bungling like sin, but most of all bungling in state affairs, which produces nothing but mischief to thousands and millions” Goethe
and
“Success does not consist in never making mistakes but in never making the same one a second time.” GB Shaw
If the morons who keep troops and barbed wire on the South Korea side would get rid of the troops and tear down the wire, capitalism would do it’s work and like the iron curtain, North Korea would come tumbling down into the nice happy land of iPhones and professional wrestling. In the first 5 years of freedom, probably half the GNP would be used in North Koreans downloading for free everything from the last 50 years, literature, music and the 29,000 different releases of Avatar.
While I’m sympathetic to the idea that capitalism would fix most of what is wrong with North Korea very quickly, I’m not sure how removing the “troops and barbed wire on the SOUTH Korea side” would lead to an massive inflow of capitalism to North Korea. There are plenty of obstacles on the North Korean side of the border to any sudden influx of freedom.
As for downloading, the North Koreans don’t even have reliable and consistent ELECTRICITY yet. There’s a famous picture showing that corner of Asia at night and all of Asia is awash in light EXCEPT North Korea, which has only one or two small lighted spots at Pyongyang. Can you imagine that? It must be like stepping back in time 200 years….
Access to the internet in North Korea is extremely limited. There is not wireless network, and even cell phones are tightly regulated. Even TVs and Radios are given out with tamper seals on them to prevent the owners from changing the channels.
North Korea’s greatest threat is its massive population and their extremely low standard of living. It will make German Unification look like a happy little stroll in the park. Even a peaceful fall of the North would be catastrophic for the global economy.
Kim Jong Eunuch
“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on ME.”
- Chief Englineer Montgomery Scott
I, for one, am really getting sick of playing this game with North Korea. I might be tempted to believe the North Koreans if they had kept their promise not to develop nuclear technology the last few times but they’ve obviously reneged yet again.
Let’s start looking a little more seriously at the other options. I think it’s time to get serious about the military option since diplomacy keeps failing. I’m not sure if it would be realistic to encourage a coup by some faction within North Korea but that might be the best place to start. Failing that, maybe we should figure out how to neutralize them militarily or even persuade the Chinese to do so.
I know that this is a very difficult military problem due to the massed artillery along the border between North Korea and South Korea. That artillery can easily reach Seoul and kill a LOT of people before it can be knocked out. But how many will die if the North Koreans are allowed to build working nuclear weapons and the delivery systems to launch them at us?
Kim Jong-il will never give up his nuclear weapons we don’t even know for sure he has or does not have.
China will never ask Kim Jong-il to give up the weapons of mass destruction. In fact, China has and will encourage Kim to continue his course.
South Korea will never confront Kim Jong-il for anything. They will continue to send “humanitarian aid” which they know Kim uses to develop more weapons of mass destruction.
The U.S. will continue the 6-party farce because it has no other option, Bill Clinton, W. Bush, and now Hussein Obama, all alike. The U.S. knows it, China knows it, and I believe South Korea knows it also.
Russia? It does not matter to them one way or the other.
Arm South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan with nuclear weapons? Who will have the audacity and guts to do such a thing?
Kim Jong-il has won while millions of people have died of starvation and are still dying in the living hell on earth, North Korea.
Shame on you and me, and the world.
Obama, the doormat President, the worlds dictators sure know another peanut farmer when they see one.
Perhaps all the world’s a stage and all the various actors play their parts safe in the knowledge that they are sticking to the script.
If so.
Who wrote the script?
And how does it go from here?
Why do I wonder the above?
Simply that for the West to commit abject suicide just does not make sense.
No one wants to die. Or get poorer.
So what are the people who were intelligent and forceful enough to claw their way to the top of the political heap playing at?
When something simply does not make sense then one knows one has not got all the story.
Because, everything does make sense.
you are the voice of physical responsibility we can’t afford another war.rime for China or Russia to step up not us
A few years back I asked Bill Clinton [at CLSA conference in Hong Kong] if, in hindsight, he wished he had done things differently as far as his decisions on N. Korea were concerned. I don’t have a direct quote for you, but the thrust of his answer was “We really got snookered. It was my fault. I had the choice of whether to focus on N. Korea and get something meaningful done there, or whether to continue to court Yassir Asafat in the hopes of achieving peace in the Middle East. It looked as if we were so close to a deal with Yassir. We gave him almost everything he wanted and he still walked away! And then North Korea made us look like chumps. I got the worst of both.” This is of course not exactly what he said, but the essence is correct. I thought it a remarkable revealing, and bitter, response. We are still dealing with the fallout of Bill’s choice.