I must admit to wondering if the kidnapping of the Brits would have occurred 2 years ago, before our commitment to Iraq and President Bush became as unpopular as they now are.

It seems to me the Iranians must have been paying attention to the polls which tracked the falling popularity of both, and may have half-way believed them.

But when the Dems took over congress, and when they began behaving as irresponsibly as they now are, the Iranians must have taken heart and felt now is the time to gamble.

After all, Bush is weakened if not outright impotent, and there’s every reason to believe that any attempt to engage Iran militarily would result in highly publicized hearings to determine whether or not he should be impeached.

Given all the things that are going badly in Iran (inflation; teachers unrest; defections of high-ranking security people; guerilla attacks on Quds busses; the pitiful UN sanctions; high-ranking guys being caught red-handed in Iraq), I can imagine that the Iranian leadership might see the benefits of a distraction to divert attention from the bad things in their world to events they could represent as transgressions of their enemies and their stiff resolve and courage in countering it.

I think the Iranians made a really, really good bet. The British lack the military might (and by themselves) the economic clout to do anything about this crisis; the EU won’t help (you’re right — ka-ching, and also because of a blind hope that the alligator won’t eat them after they’ve sacrificed all others to it); the UN is both unable and unwilling to do anything of substance; and the US is paralyzed politically.