Both John Boyd and Sun Tzu have much to say about endless merkur-ial “strengthening relationships with surrounding governments” Let’s see now there is: Putins dictatorship, Saudi’s Wahhabi dictaorship, and Afgahnistan and Iraq, and the Tribal Provinces of Pahkistahn. Well 2 out of 5, for now, ain’t bad for starters.
Action and Inaction. Both will have consequences.
Making enemies of every Shia on earth by a bombing campaign, conventional of course, against Iranian Nuclear Assets. This would be something new ?
Do we need to rerun the film here of Jimmy Carter getting burned in effigy daily on the streets of Tehran starting in November 1974 ? What exactly do they mean by “Death to America” at every mass ralley since ? I wonder ? This IS a hard one to understand. Perhaps if we just hold hands with them and sing “Kumbayah”.
They’ve been bombing us (Kobar Towers) and sponsoring terrorism (Hezbollah Inc. Syria & Lebanon) since that time.
And setting up Hezbo cells in the U.S. Mexico and South America.
So what new here is Mekur afraid of ? They can “reach out and touch him” or his child’s school, right now by activating a U.S. cell.
1) Economics –
Iran has a crumbling oil-producing infrastructure, oil just doesn’t ooze itself out of the ground and walk onto a tanker, even if Hugo Chavez and his buddy Ahmadinjad command it to be so. Iran needs to make $3 bill a year investment in their oil infrastructure just to stay even let alone modernize, their not doing it. Neglected Oil reserviors don’t just go to sleep, they degrade to the point of nonrecovery of oil resources. Iran may see that happening in the coming years. A coalition of the willing and final ultimatum followed by a bombing campaign will do two things. Demonstrate to “Take over the world” theocracies, that you can only play some of the people for suckers some of the time. And force them to deal with an economic calamity for a long long time diverting their national energy & resources to rebuild their revenue capacity rather than nuke weapons materials.
This ought to be followed up with some kind of renewal of cold war brinksmanship with Russia who has been Schooling Iran’s Atom Squad for 30 years. The U.S. Political class thinks the Cold War is over, The Russians think the Cold War is Just different now. They’ve already re-nationalized their cash flow engine Oil&Gas Industry i.e. stolen assets Knowhow and technology after billions of western investment.
2) Iran’s SS –
Iran’s ayatollah’s has something like the Nazi SS, the Pasdaran, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Force of 150,000+ to keep the Iranian Military, Iranian students, and Iranian democratic forces, under control, under constant surveillance and as needed under arrest. Lot’s of “extrajudicial killings” just to send home the message. The Pasdaran answers only to the Ayatollahs.
I’m not betting on an “Orange Revolution” to democratize Iran.
3) Whether it is a first strike on Iran or wait for Israel to get nuked then let their three submarines try to start the 2nd strike is irrelevant. Russia was completely under authoritarianism for 100 years. Iran is just a youngster at it and will be under authoritarian rule for a long time.
Iran is on it’s way to a bomb. Less than five years. Either they get bombed first or will be bombed second, it’s just a question of strategy and how many Israelis, European, and U.S. citizens we choose to sacrifice first before responding.
