I suspect that out of Iraq, Iran, N Korea, Churchill would have identified Iran and Korea as the real threats that they are and would not have been blinded by neocon ideology or in selecting Iraq becuase it was the weakest of the three ‘evils’ and therefore the easiest to invade. He was a big picture man.

If Bush had not invaded Iraq and still had a freed up US military to seriously threaten Iran, then we could probably have ‘scared’ Iran to getting rid of its nuclear programme.

In 10 years time when Iran and North Korea both have substantial nuclear weapons stocks, GW Bush’s place in history will be cemented as the President who identified 3 enemies (Axis of Evil) and then invaded the one posing the least threat thus allowing the real threats to the West to grow stronger than they otherwise would have.
————–
“But they (Iran) quickly surmised that we were not serious, that we were not going to confront this evil, and so they began what we now see.”

What Iran surmised is that with most of the US army bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US is essentially powerless to take military action against Iran.