Sometimes what looks terrible misfortune is simply what it seems — sheer bad luck. In the horrifying plane crash in western Russia that just killed some of Poland’s top officials, including President Lech Kaczynski, there is no sign at this stage of foul play. Reports so far are focusing on pilot error, fog, and the use of a Soviet-built Tupolev-154 for the presidential transport (Fox provides a list of Tupolev-154 crashes over the past 16 years).
But these sure do seem to be unlucky times for America’s allies, even as President Barack Obama goes into a fizz of activity advertised by the White House as making the world safer — jetting to Prague to sign a nuclear reduction deal with the Russians, hosting a nuclear summit next week in Washington, and producing a new “nuclear posture” in which the theory seems to be that if America preemptively disarms itself, we’ll all be more secure.
Meanwhile, a violent uprising has just ousted the president of Kyrgyzstan, which hosts the Manas military base (well, it used to be called an “air base” but these days it’s called a “transit center”)– chief transit point for U.S. forces serving in Afghanistan. Whether this plays into Moscow’s hands is still a matter of debate, but there’s no question that it has disrupted operations at Manas, where U.S. troop flights have been indefinitely suspended.
This follows the March 26 sinking of a South Korean frigate, the Cheonan, which — as North Korea expert Andrei Lankov describes in a recent NY Times Op-ed — was patrolling coastal waters near a disputed border with North Korea, when its stern was ripped away by an explosion. The warship sank; 46 South Korean sailors died. Despite signs suggesting the cause was a mine or a torpedo, the South Korean government has declined to confront North Korea, warning against jumping to conclusions.
A problematic grouping–the first three events are accidents, or acts by others, for which the U.S. clearly has no responsibility. The fourth item in the group, denying visas to Israeli nuclear scientists, is, if true, clearly a U.S. act. Crowley’s quoted replies sound like squirming out of the allegation instead of convincingly denying it!
This sounds like material for a good sci-fi movie…”The Barokeydoke Effect”
Far be if from ME TOO to weave conspiracy theories. HOWEVER, the hair has been standing up alot at the back of my neck PRECISELY due to the ‘coincidental’ bad luck swarming around US allies.
Either these allies are just mutually suffering from a string of crappy karma, or, alternatively, other forces are at play.
Consider: is it possible that US enemies (both outside the US and within it) have become so emboldened through Obama’s outreach to the most vile elements in the world, that all manner of mischief is not only possible, but will surely be non-reciprocated by Washington? Or, is it possible that a certain US intelligence service-which shall remain nameless-is ‘messing’ with these poor unfortunates of the US allied-kind?
The warship, the plane, the ouster are easy enough ‘contract’ jobs. The Israeli nuclear scientist putsch is easily handled by the anti-Israel, anti-American State Dept people.
I’m just saying…..
I find myself thinking of Goldfinger’s Law: “Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.”
In ancient Rome, lots of people died of sudden illnesses — especially political rivals of the leaders. REally bad luck.
How do you poison and airplane?
It’s sad and alarming at the same time.
I don’t like conspiracy theories myself but it does make you wonder.
And where was BO yesterday a.m. without the press corps?
Just asking…
Joel, “acts by others” can be invited by inaction or signals of weakness or indifference by us.
Adina, your thoughts and questions are precisely what I have been mulling over. A lot of coincidence going on, isn’t there?
OMINOUS DEATH OF LECH KACZYNSKI
First there was the brutal Russian invasion of Georgia where America stood by and did nothing. Then came Obama’s unwarranted, senseless canceling of the missile defense shield for Poland and Eastern Europe to appease Vladimir Putin and reward him for Georgia. Now two days after the signing of a badly flawed US/Russian arms control deal Poland’s freedom loving, anti-Moscow President dies in an ominous plane crash taking with him 96 Polish dignitaries. Obama’s policies of weakness and appeasement are leading America on a deadly collision course with neo-imperial Russia indicated by several events and the death of Lech Kaczynski.
Google my name ApolloSpeaks (one word on Townhall) and read my two recent articles: “The Ominous Death of Lech Kaczynski” and “The Charade in Prague.”
chief transit point for U.S. forces serving in Afghanistan
It’s an important logistics hub, but most of the personnel flowing in and out of Afghanistan go through bases located in one of the allies that border the the Persian(Arabian) Gulf.
There was a very similar crash of a Polish Air Force plane carrying VIPs in 2008 at Mirosławiec in Poland. Pilot error was blamed and people were fired.
See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miros%C5%82awiec_air_accident
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7205810.stm
“MR. CROWLEY: To the extent the report is that we’ve stopped providing visas to Israeli scientists as a whole, that report is wrong.”
This response is completely misleading. There is no claim that visas are being denied to “Israeli scientists as a whole” – rather, only to those affiliated with the Nuclear Research Center in Dimona. So Crowley’s response shouldn’t be taken for a denial.
The report in Israel’s “Maariv” also claims that parts and supplies sought from US sources are under a “de facto embargo” unless precise details about their intended use is provided.
I think the plane crash was caused by the fog. I remember driving in heavy fog once. I couldn’t see more than a few feet in front of me and I was driving only 5 mph. It’s dangerous and scary driving in thick fog at night. I can only imagine how hard it would be to fly a plane flying at hundreds of mph through thick fog, especially a Russian built plane.
Politics might have been involved in the pilots decision to land in bad weather. The Polish President might have felt the Russians were trying to screw up their visit plans by not allowing them to land and diverting them to another airport. I wonder if the Poland President or the other Polish military leaders on the plane ordered the pilot to land despite the alleged requests by the Russian air traffic controllers for them to abort their landing.
I also have read in some news reports that the pilot was dumping fuel. So maybe they had mechanical problems besides the bad weather. Or maybe the pilot was ordered to land and decided to dump the fuel in case they crashed the landing. It’s a terrible tragedy.
One could also add the uninterrupted march towards a nuclear Iran, and the Messiah’s lack of interest in that issue. Is it any wonder the governments of Afghanistan and Iraq are now tilting towards Iran as a result?
The malevolent dictator must be deposed!
As someone may have remarked after Sarajevo or perhaps, Munich. So it begins.
@ 9. kolohe: Kyrgyzstan: Important Logistics Hub
Logistics is the most important military activity,
particularly in a remote location such as Afghanistan;
Inability to keep our forces supplied would make a
plausible excuse for winding down our operations there.
We will not do anything until it’s close to the 2012 election and Obama is behind in the polls. At this point it’s ‘way too early for the dog to wag.
Conspiracy theories are entertaining and allow oneself the illusion that one is smarter and better informed than the average citizen. Ultimately, however, most are false, and the more complicated they are, the less likely they are to be true.
One guy with a jerry can of gasoline can start a Reichstag fire. But for 9/11 to be a conspiracy, some 3000 people from the President to the WTC janitors would have had to been in on it, with several dozen agreeing to plan for their own deaths. And so it is for the webs of conspiratorial thinking being spun here. Our clandestine services are good, but I don’t believe they can either cause ground fog or telekinetically force a pilot to attempt an unsafe landing in it.
We have so many legitimate issues on which to fight Obama. Let’s not marginalize ourselves and diffuse our efforts by following the rabbit trail trodden by the 9/11 truthers.
Conspiracy or not, the reality is that our president is purposely damaging the US. If he is not a part of these mishaps, he certainly does not mind that they are happening to our allies.
Remember, for obama it is all about the results not how he arrives there.
Talk to the Poles and Russians that are living in the US. They have a different take on what happened. And it ain’t what this administration or their lapdogs, MSM, suggest.
This couldn’t be anything like “The Godfather” where Michael settles the family business, could it?
@ John Skookum
I don’t think that anyone believes, President Pantywaist, is behind a conspiracy to destroy our, once dependable, allies through espionage. However, anyone that believes Putin, Iran, Syria, N. Korea, China, et al, aren’t emboldened by the weakness of Obama (or capable of aggressive espionage) is a damned fool!
Welcome to the brave new world.
…but I’m a superstitious man, and if they should get struck by a bolt of lightning or die in a plane crash, then I’m going to blame some of the people in Russia. And that I do not forgive.
Planes land and take off in fog all of the time all around the world.
The pilot relies on the ground control system to provide him information on his glide path.
By concentrating on that system he brings the plane to a safe landing 99.9999% of the time.
One wonders what might happen if someone jiggled the parameters of that system so that the glide path intersected the earth about a kilometer from the runway.
A reasonably astute investigator might immediately impound that system, all physical and electronic logs and all personnel with access.
Good point. I was buying that fog story there.
Conspiracy? No. Just things and events long set in motion coming together to produce history.
You might remember that the first reports about Ron Brown’s plane crash blamed bad weather. Later we find the skies were clear.
Don’t trust first reports. They are always wrong.
There is such a phenomenon known as “clear air turbulence/wind shear”.
It probably was an accident, but, then again, it might have been an act of war.
Prudent men pray for peace and prepare for war.
Throw in illegal alien invasion, moon god worshiping enemys allowed into these United States, plus teaching children in a secular false way to mislead them.
I almost forgot all the lead based stuff from the CHICOMMS that murder our dogs, cats, and children who drink the formula from there. Why are we in hock to the CHICOMMS?
I, for one, welcome our new alien overloads.
America under the Indonesian Imbecile:
Worst Friend, Best Enemy
This nation is continuing to suffer irreparable damage, every day that The Precedent is in office. At some point, Americans are going to realize that our nation will not make it through The Precedent’s full term, intact. This is the fact of our situation. Every day that goes by, America dies a little more – and the idea of recovery is getting to be nothing more than a fantasy.
America experienced a psychotic break from the credit crisis and declared national suicide on Nov 4th, 2008. That is what we are all now living through. The senseless and utter destruction of our country – the greatest that has ever existed in the history of the world – and all for nothing but insanity and white guilt.
Unlucky things always happen, conspiracies are always carried on, but the problems get really bad when these normal facts of life combine with the WILL to make America weaker.
And this administration is second to no foreign enemy in its will to make America weaker.
“Accidents don’t happen to people who take accidents as a personal insult.”
–Michael Corleone, The Godfather (the novel)
“But I’m a superstitious man. And if some unlucky accident should befall him – If he should get shot in the head by a police officer, or if he should hang himself in his jail cell – or if he’s struck by a bolt of lightning, them I’m going to blame some of the people in this room, and that I do not forgive. But, that aside, let me say that I swear, on the souls of my grandchildren, that I will not be the one to break the peace we’ve made here today.”
Don Corleone to the other Dons in the movie “The Godfather”
I’ve written an article – check out my blog
The plane crash is just too co-incidental to be a mere coincidence.
Yes, it has been tough times for our country for the past ten years or so. However, it appears that we are managing. The economic collapse has been thwarted and there is progress at home and abroad, but things do continue to happen. Will we survive? I think the answer is yes, as long as we keep a steady hand on the ship.s wheel. Dont you agree?
The only progress abroad is the advance of our enemies. The only progress at home is that of the enemies of the Republic and freedom. You, too, are the enemy. The steady handedness of Obama is driving us toward the rocks. We don’t need a steady hand; we need someone to wrest control and turn this ship of state around, or else kill the engines so that she is dead in the water.
Don’t i agree on a ten year long disaster? Nope –the disaster began on election day November 2006 –look at the charts, comrade.
OP: “and producing a new “nuclear posture” in which the theory seems to be that if America preemptively disarms itself, we’ll all be more secure.”
Hate to be the turd in the punchbowl here, but absolutely nothing Obama has done can be construed as pushing for unilateral disarmament. A reduction of 1/3 of our nuclear arsenal – leaving us with 1500 weapons distributed among ICBMs, functionally invisible Trident subs, and 24/7 in the air nuclear bombers – is hardly the same as abandoning our nuclear deterrent.
As for BO’s stated refusal to respond to non-nuclear attacks with nuclear weapons, IMHO it’s actually a shrewd foreign policy move. At the very least it is not a simple question of black and white. To understand why, please do some research on the previous US policy called “Calculated Ambiguity”, in which we were deliberately opaque about when and if our nuclear arsenal would be used:
In March 1996, Secretary of Defense William Perry explained: “For obvious reasons, we choose not to specify in detail what responses we would make to a chemical attack. However, as we stated during the Gulf War, if any country were foolish enough to use chemical weapons against the United States, the response will be ‘absolutely overwhelming’ and ‘devastating.’”
In his article “The Commitment Trap” Scott Sagan lays out a few very Realist (aka, non-moonbat) arguments against this policy:
“The central argument is that the current nuclear doctrine creates a “commitment trap”: threats to use nuclear weapons in response to a chemical or biological attack are credible, because if CW or BW are used despite such threats, the U.S. president would feel compelled to retaliate with nuclear weapons to maintain his or her international and domestic reputation for honoring commitments. The increase in the probability of U.S. nuclear retaliation is both the deterrent benefit of current doctrine and its gravest potential cost.”
“This section focuses particular attention on a hidden risk: that U.S. nuclear threats increase the likelihood that other states will use chemical and biological weapons by accident, through unauthorized action, or in response to a false warning of attack.”
Now, it’s my personal opinion that Sagan (and many others) are right, but whether you agree with them or not, you must at least concede that the recent nuclear posture review is far from insano-Leftist idealism.
Just a nit — we haven’t had nuclear bombers “in the air 24/7″ for almost 50 years. They did keep a “Looking Glass” plane (a 707 full of generals and radios) plane in the air 24/7 until about 1990.
I stand corrected on that fact, you sir are right and I was wrong. As of 1960 we just keep them on the runway.
Now, could you please tell me how getting one peripheral fact wrong invalidates my whole point, or makes me a nit?
Ooooo, unless you mean you are just nitpicking a detail, in which case I totally misunderstood and took offense for no reason. In the rather insane world of online poker (which I am so fortunate to live in the same house with), a ‘nit’ is some kind of slang for a dumb person. So if that’s what you meant, I apologize.
So if the reduction makes little difference considering what we’re left with then it seems superficial. Was it just for show to stroke the left?
Or does he really intend to reduce capability and in that case handicap our deterrence?
One way is for show. The other way hurts us.
I’ll second what Liz Cheney said today.
That Barack gathering all those folks for some kind of nuclear confab in Washington DC won’t change jack sh!t when it comes to proliferation and/or the possibility of rogue state obtaining nukes, suitcase or any other variety.
Meetings signifying nothing, it’s what liberals do.
Netanyahu is wise to decline a potential for Arab attendees to lean on him over the Israeli nuclear program. Some of those Arab states are desperate to use any means, “the UN” or whatever is available, to preclude Israel from defending herself.
Beyond the monstrous sadness, it’s hugely ironic that all those Polish officials were traveling to Russia for a ceremony over a slaughter of Poles that happened in 1940, for which Russia has never officially apologized.
I happens to be in Poland right now. The atmosphere is really indescribable. The red-white Polish flag is everywhere, topped with black ribbons. Churches are packed with people. Shops are closed. Thousands of people lined the streets of Warsaw to catch a glimpse of the car carrying President Kaczynski’s body. On television, commentators are wondering whether politicians will find the strength to conduct nasty campaigns in the coming presidential election. The entire political class is broken by the enormous human losses. One would never have guessed, but it’s an incredibly sad sight when spin doctors speak honestly. The tragedy took its toll on all political parties in the country. The leftist, post-communist SLD lost its presidential candidate, former defense minister Jerzy Szmajdzinski. It looks unlikely that they’ll be able to field a replacement as formidable. The topper echelon of Kaczynski’s party, Law and Justice, was decimated. It’s unclear who will take his place. Most likely, Bronislaw Komorowski from the center-right Citizens’ Platform will become the next president of Poland. He has already taken on the responsibility temporarily.
Putin looked genuinely shocked and saddened during television appearance. Lately, Russia has been signaling that she wants to close out the dispute over Katyn. Putin took part in the commemoration in Katyn a week ago. He wasn’t explicit in his condemnation of what happened, but at least he brought himself to mention Lavrientija Beria, which is progress. Russian television has broadcasted Andzej Wajda’s film “Katyn.” On Monday, the country will observe a day of mourning in honor of the victims of Saturday’s crash and “Katyn” will be shown again. We should expect, of course, Russia to behave in accordance to her national interests. In this case though, the bear seems to have decided to stop being a boor.
Ms. Rosette, I don’t think it is a good idea to make this kind of half hearted accusation, or insinuation, of conspiracy. Hedgeing, hand wringing and having it both ways will not help in any way. We already know that we are worried. If you go into the woods to shoot a bear, make sure you are fully loaded (metaphorically speaking).
tinmouth/37; all due respect, but please speak for yourself. I want my antenna extended and waving energetically. I can seperate wheat from chaff, i don’t need to herded away from the field. I’d bet most folks these days agree. Your bear axiom is great if the bear is just sitting there waiting for you –if he’s coming out after you then whether you’re fully-loaded or not is the problem you should have worried about yesterday.
This is an uncommonly long list of comments for Ms Rosette. You may be new,
It’s odd hearing someone tell her how to do her job.
Its hilarious that the US can assassinate the leaders of foreign countries outright, but if a place crashes in the fog we create a conspiracy around it and begin to question if there are hidden forces at work. You all need to crack a book more often, read blogs a little bit less
Nuclear weapons are being replaced by Fuel / Air Bombs, also known as MOAB Bombs. these are incredibly powerful but leave no radiation. Again, some light research would enable people to learn why we dont need to rely on Nuclear weapons as much to inflict mass destruction on wide scales.
This article is bordering on Jerry springer journalism, appealing to right wing conspiracy nuts.
–what, Alex, you couldn’t work “raci*st” or “sarah palin” into that somewhere?
…and re F/A weapons –i’d rather we all had peashooters and slingshots but everybody needs to act together or we’ll be right back in that old five-thousand year habit of murdering & pillaging towns cities and populations by sword & torch (the last hundred adding in flattening by bomber and artillery) –something that apart from right or wrong IS the history in which the species more or less continually engaged until the period 1945 – 2010, the era of nukes ‘too-terrible-to-use’, and oddly, an era of unprecedented global freedom from natural killers poverty disease ignorance and famine.
I’m sorry but moonbattery is really starting to degrade the future, possibly permanently depending on the breaks, and tragically so for the innocent –who are also our most vulnerable –the children, the poor and ignorant, the third-worlders just now finally breaking free of hand-to-mouth and death by bad crop weather.
It’s come time to stow the silly gear and try to learn something real about the world and mother nature –and for cryinoutloud, inside that mother nature, the human nature.
Unlucky? UnLUCKY????? That’s a very generous take on this mess.
Yes well please watch this video, it will explain it all!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W57aBMYKvU
Another “inconvenient” Polish Leader the head of the FREE Polish Government in exile died in very suspicious circumstances in WW11 . Churchill and Roosevelt were blamed then as he was a thorn in the side of good allied relations with “Uncle Joe” Stalin.
Unlucky indeed to be an Ally of the militant extremist G.O.P.!
Or an Associated Power. Or even a mere Little Foreign Friend.
Healthy days.
Who was responsible for permitting the top rank of the Polish government to get on the same flight? That is the first question that should be answered.
The Katyn Curse
. . . No, Putin couldn’t have arranged for the thick fog but there are other possibilities: A desperate pilot or co-pilot? A mini-bomb in the cockpit? A planted shoe bomber or underwear bomber among the passengers?
Again, with Putin in control of the black box, we may never know. What we do know is that no atrocity was beyond the KGB and no murders are beneath the dignity of Vladimir Putin.
By the way, Vlad, who killed all those Russian journalists who opposed your regime? And, is it true you can take the man out of the KGB but there’s no way to take the KGB out of the man?
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=1624)
Mrs. Rossett:
The odds that Vladimir Putin could be instantly relieved of a serious political problem in one stroke are slim–so slim as to be considered outside the realm of possibility.
The depths of evil in the human heart, on the other hand, are something upon which you can place money.
See, for example, this Russian eyewitness video report suggesting that 1) there was no fog, 2) several attempts to land were not made, and 3) the plane was making strange noises (“slaps”) before it crashed.
The world should not have to wait for 50 years for this crime–and it is a crime–to be revealed.
And that’s just in the east…what about the Russian/Iranian/Venezuelian axis in the west?
For the first time I feel surrounded.