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Your Monday Morning Doom & Gloom

You might want to get your boss on speed dial and prepare to call in "sick of all this" while I show you the real jobs picture.

by
Stephen Green

Bio

July 7, 2014 - 12:04 am
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Here’s to hoping you enjoyed your long Independence Day weekend. I sure enjoyed mine, because it wasn’t until today that I looked past the touchy-feelgood headline numbers in the June jobs report. 288,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, the lowest it’s been since before the beginning of the Great Recession. Even the figures for April and May were unexpectedly revised upwards. Helping to keep that good mood humming along was the big increase in auto sales, which “shattered expectations.” Sales were so hot that even beleaguered GM, which in recent months has announced recalls for seemingly every car and truck sold since the Truman administration, saw a modest increase. And let’s ice that cake with the good news from Bloomberg that after a slow (and cold!) winter, pending home sales jumped 6.1% in May. That’s the biggest increase in four years.

Jobs, cars, and homes make up the bulk of the value of most Americans’ incomes and possessions, so happy days must indeed be here again, right? Wrong. I looked beneath the headline numbers, and now I’m sorry we don’t all have Monday off from work, too.

You might want to get your boss on speed dial and prepare to call in “sick of all this” while I show you the real picture.

Are you ready?

The United States lost over half a million full-time jobs just last month. 523,000 full-time positions eliminated. We haven’t seen that kind of shrinkage since the dark days of 2008-09. This might be why Neil Irwin, writing for the New York Times, cautions readers to “hold the fireworks.” He cautions:

For example, if you wanted a reason to be skeptical of the June jobs numbers, you could point out that the bad winter weather forced many schools to remain open later into June than usual, resulting in more teachers and administrators being on payrolls in the middle of last month than the seasonal adjustment procedures would account for. Private educational services jobs rose by 5,000, while local and state government jobs added a combined 20,000. There is a good chance those jobs will “disappear” in the July numbers, even if it remains just a continued after-effect of the bad winter.

Nobody wants to look for reasons to be skeptical, or as I said of the headline number on Thursday, “I’ll take it!” But it doesn’t take a skeptic to look beneath the headlines to figure out where the 288,000 net figure came from — and it came from a surge in part-time employment, which surged by nearly 800,000. An almost equal number of workers — 676,000, not seasonally adjusted — became “discouraged” and left the labor force and are no longer considered by the BLS to be unemployed. Teenage unemployment shot up again, to 21% from 19.2%. The labor force participation rate held steady, but is down two-thirds of a point from a year ago, meaning that job growth isn’t keeping up with population growth. The number of African Americans in the labor force is a similar story — better than last month, worse than last year.

We should cheer that the total number of Americans with jobs is going steadily up, but those cheers should be muted by the tough reality that when it comes to creating jobs, the Obama economy isn’t quite treading water.

And there may be dark clouds behind the silver lining of home and auto sales. Real Estate Weekly reports that “lax underwriting” may account for recent gains:

“There is a deterioration of underwriting standards independent of what is happening to (market) fundamentals,” said Sam Chandan, an economist who follows the U.S. real estate markets. “Lenders have good reason to be concerned right now about some of the trends we are observing.”

Top Rated Comments   
O-bots will NEVER own this...never.

Have you ever met a Progressive who personally embodied the character trait of political personal responsibility?
To this day they have never owned up to what the amendments to the CRA did for the housing bubble...that was all about combatting "red-lining"
in housing loans, remember?

They've never admitted that Carter's policy of closing residential mental health institutions primed the pump of the homeless problem.

The awful Viet Namese diaspora and the madness that gripped Southeast Asia in the late 70's and early 80's "just happened". Had nothing to do with our withdrawal and betrayal of South Viet Nam.

Heck...they even maintain that Alger Hiss was framed

They'll find another witch to blame and burn for their misfortune.

And they always "meant well" anyway.

It was Bush...it was Reagan...it was Nixon...it was the Koch brothers...it was...
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
4 people over 20 in my home. 1 full-time job (mine). 2 working part-time off the books for cash. 1 with absolutely nothing. All of us voted for the other guys both times.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Lost in the fact of all these "wonderful employment numbers" is a poll seldom mentioned by anyone but FOX News, though no one denies the validity; one the Obama lapdog media has tried to bury for some months now because it asks a very simple question that doesn't require a knowledge of macroeconomics, finance or foreign policy.

By about a three to one margin, Americans believe the country headed in the wrong direction. In a country this divided, those results are about as close to a trending consensus as you will find.

If the U.S. market place had really reduced unemployment from 10.2% to 6.1% these last few years and the net worth of middle American families was increasing (and most here realize even those numbers are fudged to the nth degree), the mood of the country should be euphoric as it was under Ronald Reagan.

To the Obama bootlickers and lapdog media, I was there during the Carter malaise years. This uneasiness our nation now feels isn't malaise. It's the palpable feeling we've just about removed enough bricks that the walls are crumbling.

When those walls fall, many of you Obama sycophants better be looking for the tall weeds to hide. That weight you feel on your necks won't be the building, but the feet of the stampeding dependents you created under the slogan of 'Hope & Change.'

6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (32)
All Comments   (32)
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Monday Morning Doom & Gloom
New name for a cocktail?
(I'll have one)
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Great idea.
I guess scratch all sugar based drinks or liquors...although they would have created a nice layering and dark cloud on top ...a la Tequila sunrise.
Coffee drinks are out.
Perhaps a layered bloody mary or very dirty martini.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
My job has always been seasonal however I would be part time at least during the slow winter construction season in Nor Cal. Now I'm lucky to work full time 6 months out of the year. The other 6 months I'm looking for work or I'm SOL. My goal was to buy a home before I was 30 but now it doesn't look like that'll happen. Just hanging on to what little I have is the goal. Thankful to God though I have very little debt and make enough to save for now.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
pros: Cal and that really nice unemployment basket for you
cons: you will always be living in an apt if you stay in Cali.

Move to Texas. We take all hard working people who have a dream....and construction is booming now for the 6 yr in a row.

Not only that, you keep what you earn with your labor. Texas does not tax.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
If you are one of the lucky Americans who manages to have a job, you certainly can't afford to call in sick.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
A picture is worth a thousand words, or in this case, curses:

https://www.tumblr.com/search/inonechart
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Lovely.

The question for today is:

Do you prefer to be lied to straight up or with statistics?

Obama and his sniveling clowards have combined two games to create their new favorite.

Hot potato and kick the can. By kicking the hot potato down the road they can fool enough voters past another election cycle. (And blame dazed and easily confused Republicans for "not doing their job". The primary function of which is to reach into conservative taxpayers pockets and rip out their remaining cash)

Governmental money laundering needs a corrupt media engaged in fact laundering.

Part time jobs replacing full time jobs, to pay higher gas, food and utilities prices...so that crony communist green and Workers Party slackers can enjoy the perks of bonuses for wait listing veterans to death.

And the band played on.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Subprimes"? Seriously?? Maybe someone could hit up Tom Woods or Tom Blumer to post a blurb here explaining the critical difference between sub-prime and adjustable rate loans.

An increase in subprimes simply means that lenders are getting desperate to loan money, and that an increasing segment of the borrowing population has sub-par credit.

What someone might want to take a look at is how much new credit out there right now is based on an adjustable rate, which is currently pegged to the ridiculously, artificially low FED rate.

If we get another 17 straight FED rate hikes in a row (like the last string that ended in mid-2006), beginning oh, say, like next January (eh... primed and ready to begin in case of a change to GOP control of Congress this November...), we'll be staring at another case of the needle that actually pricked the housing bubble 7 years ago. You all remember that, no? That was back before the Democrats', GSEs' and the media's disinformation campaign aimed at blaming "predatory lenders", "subprime loans", "deregulation" and "Wall Street" for the credit meltdown.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
A lot of those cars weren't really sold to consumers, they were sold to banks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/another-month-another-gm-channel-stuffing-record
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
No, no, no. The longer loan periods for autos puts the lenders, not the borrowers underwater. The security cushion is eliminated. The owner begins to care less whether the car is repossessed. And the bank is on the hook for collecting the remaining balance from a borrower without sufficient assets. That leads to Chapter 13 cases, which means collecting at best a small fraction of the deficiency.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
Very critical point, which is at the heart of what led to the '08 credit meltdown.

That is, the lenders at the top of the chain in that case were GSEs who sold their subprime paper along with their other "riskless" stuff (see F.D.Raines' "explanation") into the credit markets, which toxic-asset-laden bundles were then 'derivatived" and "CDS'd" several times over. They got away with this because of their ostensible Treasury (i.e., Taxpayer assets) backing and Wall Street was left holding the bag... and ALL of the blame.
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
On MSNBC today, it is those EVIL Corporations who are making that profit and not sharing it with their employees. They were flashing the cover of Fortune Magazine stating that corporations that headquarter themselves overseas to avoid big government taxes "are deserters and un-American." Does anyone realize that every damn Democrat does the same thing when they hide their profits from the tax man? The whole thing is a JOKE!
6 weeks ago
6 weeks ago Link To Comment
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