‘Yes, We Can’ Still Help Honduras
The Obama administration should now tell Arias that it views his approach as highly undesirable. Were Obama, even belatedly, to suggest that Arias change his tune, at least to the extent of not giving further legitimacy to Zelaya’s return by force, it probably would not prevent a civil war. However, it might diminish the legitimacy with which Zelaya’s return will be viewed by the world.
It might also change the nature of the press coverage in the United States which, when not ignoring the Honduran crisis, has generally put a spin on it favorable to Chávez, Zelaya, and Obama and opposed to the interim government. A change in the way that the people of the United States perceive what’s happening would be a very good thing. It might make some of the ideas suggested here more palatable in the United States, even among Obama’s legion of worshipers.
Obama should tell Chávez, politely but firmly, to shut up, get out of Honduras, and have his friends do the same. Chávez would probably ignore and giggle about such advice, but he might not.
Obama, not Bush the Evil and Sulphurous One, is now the president of the United States. Unless Obama’s apology tours have been worthless, this might be seen internationally as conferring at least a modicum of legitimacy on Honduran resistance to Zelaya’s attempts to ignore the Honduran constitution and regain the presidency by force.
Obama — along with Chávez — will deserve much of the blame for a Honduran civil war. Obama should state, publicly and clearly, that the negotiations in Costa Rica failed because of Zelaya’s intransigence, which he, Arias, and Chávez stiffened. Obama should also acknowledge that Zelaya’s return, which he and Chávez sought, will cause a civil war. These, unlike the subjects of his earlier apology tours, are things for which Obama needs to apologize personally; he did them.
Obama should disassociate his administration from Chávez and Zelaya, recognize the interim government as the only viable government in Honduras, exchange ambassadors with Honduras, and provide such “humanitarian aid” as may be requested by that government. The recently reinstated diplomatic relations with Venezuela should again be severed, with specific reference to Chávez’s interference in Honduras. This would be a loud expression of displeasure at Chávez’s activities. As a practical matter, there is very little value in having a United States ambassador in Venezuela and a Venezuelan ambassador in Washington, and it confers unwarranted legitimacy upon the Chávez government.
That legitimacy should instead be conferred upon the Honduran interim government.
Washington should do everything it can to diminish further Chávez’s already shrinking oil revenues. Venezuelan crude oil has many impurities and is difficult and costly to refine. Much of that happens at refineries in the United States, unfortunately under Venezuelan ownership. Some of the “economic stimulus” funds now being wasted elsewhere should be used to promote more domestic oil drilling in the United States and even the construction of a few new refineries. Independently of everything else, these would be good things. The economic effects on Venezuela might not be felt for a long time, but the anticipation of those effects would be immediate and salutary.
Colombia has cooperated with the United States in curtailing drug trafficking and diminishing the power of the FARC leftist guerrillas, who derive their funding principally from cocaine trafficking and kidnappings. Some success is apparent. Chávez has a symbiotic relationship with the FARC, and its activities are also the principal cause of domestic unrest in Colombia. FARC’s incursions into Panamá’s remote and undeveloped Darien Province have increased, due largely to FARC’s problems in Colombia. The United States now provides modest economic support and a few military advisors to Panamá in dealing with them. Enhanced United States-Panamá efforts in the Darien, to discourage the FARC guerillas and to send them back to inhospitable Colombia, would be welcomed by Panamá.
It might help were Colombia and Panama encouraged, financially and otherwise, to cooperate more at their mutual border. Anything that the United States can legitimately do to curtail the FARC and the associated drug cartels — and their support for and from Chávez — would be a good step. This would also provide at least moral support to two of the very few countries in Latin America which remain friendly to the United States and continue to oppose Chávez’s attempts to intervene in their internal affairs.
The United States has failed to ratify the free trade agreement with Colombia, due mainly to concerns that the government of President Alvaro Uribe is not adequately considerate of chavista union activists there. Uribe’s substantial human rights reforms have gone essentially unnoticed, and the FTA is languishing. The agreement with Panama is also languishing, but Panamá now seems to have little interest in it. The FTA would not help Panamá much, and the United States has demanded various unrelated banking reforms. Panamá seems unlikely to agree to these demands. They should cease; they won’t work anyway.
The FTAs with Colombia and Panamá should be ratified, promptly and without renegotiation. This would provide at least moral support to two of the very few countries in Latin America which remain on the side of the United States and continue to oppose Chávez’s incursions. It might even give some encouragement to those in Venezuela who oppose Chávez.
Ideological bent notwithstanding, Obama has to recognize that the successful but bloody reinstatement of Zelaya would be of great value to Chávez, and that its value would be enhanced were the United States to do nothing to prevent or to oppose it. The peaceful, democratic assumption of further control in Latin America by Chávez’s supporters would be bad enough. The violent overthrow by chavistas of Honduras’ constitutionally chosen interim government would be far worse.
The United States, if she is to have any moral authority in the world, must support those who desire freedom and democracy and must oppose those who don’t. The United States failed to take an appropriate stand in Iran until far too late, spoke decisively from ignorance at the beginning of the crisis in Honduras, and seems to be flailing even now. If the current process continues, opportunities to assert such principles may well arise later; then, however, it is likely to be too late for Honduras and may also be too late for the United States effectively to oppose similar processes elsewhere.
Obama is not yet, like Jimmy Carter, a former president. What he says and does are taken abroad, rightly or wrongly, to reflect the consensus view of the United States. Perhaps disturbed by the adverse reaction of many to his bland pronouncements during the initial days of the Iranian crisis, Obama decided that this time, as to Honduras, he would speak promptly and forcefully. He did and again got it wrong. Different statements and different actions are necessary in different circumstances, and the circumstances in Honduras now are very different from those in Iran a few weeks ago. When her president gets it wrong, the United States suffers for a long time. Obama needs seriously to consider his position.
Original
Rough translation
To sum up: authorities in Honduras have seized computers pre-packed with votes for Zelaya. It appears he was planning massive fraud to guarantee the will of the people.
What is it you wingnuts don’t like about democracy? Is it the “freedom”? You support military coups and the popular will of the people being overthrown by a ruling junta — unless that junta happens to be a bunch of godless Mooslims?
Consistency, people.
He had enough practice voting “present” as senator, you’d think it would be second nature.
CONCACAF Gold Cup
USA vs Honduras
Semifinals 7/23/09
& Mexico vs Costa Rica
Winners go to finals
Zelaya tried to subvert the electoral process, and in doing so he violated his country’s constitution. His country’s Supreme Court accordingly impeached him, and removed him from office. Since Honduras does not have Federal Marshals, the court ordered the army to carry out their orders; the army did. Zelaya was replaced by the speaker of the national assembly, as per the Honduran constitution.
The only attempt at a “coup d’etat” in Honduras was by Zelaya. His removal was a legal process as defined by Honduran law- which, by the way, was specifically written to deal with a President’s attempt to extend his tenure beyond a single six-year term in exactly this way. This is due to the number of Honduran presidents in the past who, once elected, quickly took measures to make themselves President for Life- as Zelaya apparently also intended to do.
As for Obama, from all the available evidence, he is “hoping” for a civil war, to give Chavez’ an excuse to move Venezuelan troops in as “peacekeepers”- thereby giving Chavez’ control of Honduras, something he has wanted for a long time as part of his irrational plan to become a sort of “super-caudillo” of the northern half of South America.
What neither Obama or Chavez’ seems to understand is that Honduras actually has a government, that government actually has the support of its people, and oh yes, it also has a rather large and well-equipped army by the standards of the region. And exactly none of the above like Chavez’ any better than they like Zelaya.
Chavez’ may find that being “Fidel’s chosen successor” isn’t as much fun as he thought it would be.
As for Colombia and Panama; Since FARC, a leftist revolutionary group, has become the de facto biggest group of narcotraficantes’ in the region (most of the cocaine coming out of Mexico into the U.S. comes from them initially; the Mexican cartels are basically just middlemen), The One has a serious quandary. Does he go with his natural impulse to support the leftists fighting the “evil” capitalistic government of Colombia; or does he fulfill his pledge to help Mexico fight the drug traffickers? (Mainly by searching houses in Texas for guns he doesn’t like, that is to say, any guns owned by American citizens.)
My estimate is, he’ll do what he does best in such situations; eat a waffle, which coincidentally accurately defines his usual decision-making process when he finds himself faced with a collision between his dogmas and reality.
In the end, his dogmas usually win. Which means everyone else loses.
clear ether
eon
Deep brain:Zelaya was removed by the Honduran military on orders from the court.What he was attempting was illegal.I suppose you think districts that had more votes than registered voters last year due to ACORN fraud is the”will of the people.”
#2 – what is it that _you_ don’t understand about how the Honduras Constitution works? Both the Honduras Congress and the Honduras Supreme Court ruled that Zelaya’s plebiscite was unconstitutional.
Zelaya was attempting to extend his presidency through fraud. He was rightly and legally unseated, and replaced by a member of his own party.
Perhaps you ought to become more educated before forming an opinion. Your “Obama good, conservatives bad” meme just doesn’t cut it.
Update
20 July 5:41 PM EDT Taking exactly the wrong course, the Obama Administration threatened that unless the “de facto Government” in Honduras relents and reinstates former President Zelaya,it may slash economic assistance. According to a State Department spokesman, Secretary Clinton stated that “we seek a restoration of democratic and constitutional order, a peaceful resolution,” and opined that unless interim President Micheletti accepts the terms laid our by Costa Rican President/Mediator Arias there will be “a significant impact in terms of aid and consequences, potentially longer-term consequences … for the relationship between Honduras and the United States.” Meanwhile, “The European Commission on Monday suspended all budgetary support payments to Honduras to increase the pressure on Micheletti, although he again insisted he would not give in.”
20 July Despite this, the Administration warned Zelaya not to attempt to return to Honduras until further negotiations in Costa Rica have had a chance to resolve the issues.
Two things have been obvious from the first in the Honduran situation. Obama and his Marxist blood-brothers in South and Central American would re-instate Zelaya by political means if possible. If that failed,they would do it by civil war or assination. Obama will support the Marxist Zelaya in any way he can short of going down to Honduras and carrying a rifle himself.
Here are some remarks by Mauricio Villeda, one of the interim Government negotiators, after the talks in Costa Rica broke off last week.
Kick the illegal US president from his throne.He is dragging US in to the ditch.Just like Honduras throw the Left loony out.
If it comes to fighting, Cuba and Venezuela will help Zelaya, while zero will insist–using force if necessary–nobody help the legitimate government of Honduras. No supplies, cut off money–a la the dems and the ARVN some decades ago–and otherwise facilitate another president for life.
Expecting Obama to recant is totally delusional. He is never wrong. His ego will not permit him to say he is EVAH wrong. Waiting on Hillary, our feckless State Department, the namby-pamby UN and the corrupt OAS to come to their senses is utterly pointless. VIVA Honduras.
not just a civil war, but international war: chavez and venezuela will enter the fray…
2. Deep Brain Diarist
“a bunch of godless Mooslims”
You really need to learn how to spell. I have never seen conservatives deliberately mispell “Muslim” as consistently as you do. I assume you are trying to act as those conservatives do this. Sorry. It’s not.
The old straw man premise is so silly. Useful to people without a decent argument, but still silly.
correction to 13….”act as though conservatives do this”
Repeatedly calling the legitimate, elected government of Honduras “the interim government” does not strike me as helpful here. Words matter, and referring that way to the elected Congress, the Honduran Supreme Court, and Zelaya’s successor, who assumed his office according to the Honduran constitution* when Zelaya was removed via legal process, taints it with illegitimacy. (Which Zelaya will no doubt appreciate, once he is assisted to complete his putsch and thereafter removes both the Honduran congress and its Supreme Court by decree.)
* Special note to Deep Brain Diarist: when the new head of state is the constitutionally-mandated successor, instead of some general, they don’t normally call it a “military coup”.
Why is President Obama intent on meddling with the internal affairs of an independent foreign nation-state?
Seems to me that all it would take is someone in the Legislative branch to call him out on this issue at every opportunity to get this point across and the truth in front of the American people.
Yes, he could change his stand, but why would an avowed socialist/marxist change at this time. He is currently supporting Chavez and the Castro brothers, and has no problem with that. It appears that at this point in time, Honduras is on their own, and GOD help them. They are going to need all the help they can get because it sure won’t come from the Obama administration.
“Whoever is fighting for liberty is defending America.”
The CURRENT government of Honduras and the Honduran people who wish to uphold the Honduran constitution are fighting for liberty. The American people must find a way to support those who are defending America.
With a communist in the White House and the communist running the State Departmrnt, Honduras is toast. Another win for Hugo Chavez.
Headline 1: Obama behaves rationally
Headline 2: Scorpion thanks frog
The Honduran allegiance to their constitution is admirable; would that we could learn from it.
Pardon me, but if, as has been reported, as many as 90% of Hondurans support their government’s legal action to deport their scheming law breaking president, then how can you say a civil war is imminent? An insurrection or invasion perhaps, but not a civil war. Escalation by the Communists and wannabe dictators south of the U.S. with help from the current crop of Socialists running America might bring war, but not civil war. Rather it would be a stage for the struggle between Democracies and reemerging Communism.
Howard Lohmuller
Re Comment #17 — referring to the Honduran Government as “interim” should not be taken to diminish its legitimacy; it is better than calling it the de facto Government, since it is also the de jure Government. I do recognize the problem, however. The Congress and the Supreme Court have not changed; only the President has. I understand that the Government refers to the President as the “interim” President, and that’s what he hopefully will remain, until the scheduled elections are held in November or possibly sooner and an elected President can assume office. To refer to him as other than “interim” would suggest a degree of permanence which he has disclaimed. Perhaps the better usage would be to refer to the Government without a qualifier such as “interim,” and to continue to refer to the President as “interim.”
On another matter, according to this article, Brazil has discovered substantial oil reserves which may be adequate to diminish the position of Chávez’s Venezuela as a major supplier to the United States.
If so, Chávez’s problems in Venezuela and elsewhere should increase. Chávez already has other problems with Brazil, which is failing to agree to the entry of Venezuela into the Southern Cone Economic Zone (Mercosur).
The position of Arias in this sordid affair is a bit mysterious. Or at least I thought so until I realized that his problem is probably the involvement of the Honduran army. The Honduran Constitution, so far as I can tell, allows, or even encourages, the Honduran courts and legislature to act as they have, but it doesn’t say anything about army involvement. Since throughout much of Latin American history the army has been the route through which Castro wannabees managed to turn themselves into El Presidentes for Life, Arias’s suspicions are understandable. But, I think, mistaken.
I tend to think things in Honduras are exciting enough without our Affirmative Action President being such a putz. Honduras will probably have to fight, at least a bit; this crap won’t end until Zelaya is dead. Our man Big O won’t do anything of consequence either way, being essentially an inconsequential kind of guy.
Dan,
I wish President Obama would follow your recomendations, but he won’t. He is very good at apologising for the sins of his country but I have yet to seem him admit error or apologise for anything he has done.
If Honduras can hold-out until November, then they should be all set: They will then have a new elected president. Zelaya is very unpopular in Honduras and could only be installed to power by external force.
Ryan Mauro has this: http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=1460
1956 redux. The Suez Crisis and the Hungarian uprising. Both events went quite the distance to give us the world we have today. And leave it to the
“leaders” to continue to have their blinders on to what they do not want to
see.
It should be embarrasing to the American people that the Honduran government today is by its own constitution more legitimate than the current US government is in accordance to its constitution.
Everything this current administration and congress has done or is contemplating is without any doubt out side its scope of authority as per the US Constitution. Obama cannot even prove that he is fact legally qualified to even be President of the United States. The fact that when a Major refused to go to Afghanistan claiming Obama was not legally qualified to be the Commander In Chief and instead of being subjected to a court martial and sentenced to prision for such an egregious affront to the CiC but was simply reasigned elswhere is a stunning (albeit unintended) confirmation of Obama’s illegitimacy. Rather than simply produce without comment a birth certificate showing he was born in the US, he chose to have the officer reasigned. Which means he cannot produce a birth certificate that clearly proves he is a natural born citizen of the US as per the law in effect at the time of his birth.
Congress can cite no article of the Constitution that can even have the most remotely plausible source of authority for what it has done in the last six months and is contemtemplating in doing in this session. We side with Chavez a failed coup leader and presently only president by virtue of electoral fraud and go against a country who has never harmed the US. Each and every time this present administration and congress when presented a clear choice between the right thing to do and the wrong thing to do inevitably choses the wrong course of action. God help us and spare with these communist in charge.
Don’t waste your time replying to useful idiots from the left like Deep Brain Diarist. By his comments you can tell he needs a deep brain transplant. Usually these people don’t procreate, it’s a matter of time before they become irrelevant.
Last Sunday Daniel Ortega announced, “that he would seek a referendum to change the constitution to allow him to seek reelection.” Real Clear World, July 20, 2009. Is that why Obama and his band of leftist brothers want to destroy the nation of Honduras and its legal government? Does it stand in the way of the big plan to control Central and South America? Mexico and the United States, if poor Honduras falls in to their bloody hands, you are next.
Is Chavez, Castro, Ortega, and the other leftist planing to force the police, and or military of Honduras to be blamed for blood shed of Zelaya supporters? The attempted return of Zelaya, on a Venezuelan plane, to Tegucigalpa was designed to do that-it failed. So far, only one person has died in this deception, but it was proven that he was murdered by a Zelaya supporter. Will the thugs from the leftist countries, being smuggled into Honduras, be used to massacure some Zelaya supporters, and blame on the Honduran authorities? Will that be an excuse to trigger an invasion by Chavez, Ortega, Castro, and even The U.S.?
Viva Honduras!!
Chávez is now talking about a military arm for his pet, the Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas (ALBA). “During a meeting in Bolivia last week, President Chávez, Morales (Bolivia), [and] Correa (Ecuador) discussed the possibility of amplifying ALBA to include the armed forces . . . .” The principal “threat” cited in the discussions was United States activities in Colombia.
Also in Comment 31, I messed up the link. It is, Chávez is now talking about a military arm for his pet,
To Deep Brain and other Leftists:
Consider, if Nixon had been impeached and convicted, and refused to leave office, and the FBI and Secret Service were still following his orders, would it be a coup if a Marine company, following orders of the Supreme Court, forcibly removed Nixon from the White House and put him on a plane for Orange County?
I think you’d cheer.
Consistency, people.
As for Obama, he does seem to be giving the Chavezistas considerable aid and comfort. I don’t think this is cluelessness, I think it is intentional. He adheres to Chavez’s ideology and wants Chavez to gain influence and power.
Thank God that elections in the US are run locally.
Why should Obama do more? Backing the Honduran government in this issue will only provide ammo for Ortega and Chavez. You’re basically giving them the very gasoline they need to fuel their own agendas.
#2 Deep Brain Diarist – The Nations BETRAY ANTI-COMMUNIST Honduras & Jewish Israel
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
US turns up pressure on Honduras coup government
By MARK STEVENSON (AP) – July 20, 2009
TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called interim President Roberto Micheletti to say there would be serious consequences if his government ignores international mediation for Zelaya’s return.
Honduran business leaders, meanwhile, say U.S. Ambassador Hugo Llorens has called them into meetings to warn that Honduras — impoverished and highly dependent on exports to the United States — could face tough sanctions if the interim government continues to refuse Arias’ compromise proposal for Zelaya to return as head of a coalition government.
The European Union added to the pressure on Monday by announcing it was suspending $93.1 million (65.5 million euros) in aid to Honduras.
The United Nations and Organization of American States have called for the return of Zelaya, who was arrested and hustled out of the country by the army on June 28.
But Micheletti vowed not to stand down — and implied that the United States is betraying one of its staunchest allies. Honduras allowed its territory to be used as a staging area for U.S.-backed Contra rebels in Nicaragua during the 1980s, and more recently it sent troops to Iraq.
One learns in life that people who seem to be friends are not really friends.
He vowed to stay in power until the scheduled Nov. 29 elections. The United States has suggested it may not recognize that vote because it will be held under a de facto government.
Zelaya has aligned himself with leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
On July 8, the U.S. government announced it had suspended $16.5 million in military aid, and had placed a hold on development aid expected to total about $180 million. But it has not yet threatened to cut off trade or remittances, a move which analysts say could quickly bring down Honduras’ economy.
“The U.S. could make this be over in a second if it imposed strong sanctions,” said Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University. “But in doing so it would hurt the poor, it would hurt our allies.”
Adolfo Facusse, the head of Honduras’ National Association of Industries, was defiant:
“We prefer sanctions to Zelaya’s return,” which he said would bring the “loss of liberty, dictatorship, communism.”
Zelaya angered many here by ignoring the objections of the courts and Congress to try to hold a referendum on changing the constitution, which many saw as an attempt to impose a Chavez-style socialist government.
Bulnes said the damage to Honduras’ image since Zelaya’s ouster had already hurt the country’s tourism, hotel and restaurant industries.
Seventy percent of Hondurans live in poverty and the per capita gross domestic product is just under $4,000 per year.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jAkMGKIUDg_ngUiZboxQbYj5_DPwD99ICUP80
Honduras PUNISHED for Being ANTI-COMMUNIST. Israel PUNISHED for Being JEWISH.
It is most ominous that the U.S. and the nations, are condemning and punishing the peaceful, freedom-loving people of Honduras for their refusal to accept communism. Honduras, NEVER give up the fight for freedom!
Is this hostile act against tiny, courageous Honduras a prelude of what is planned for America and the nations? Is it planned that America and the nations will become communist?
The DEATH of FREEDOM: Obama’s Civilian National Security Force
Obama promised change. The End of America as we know it:
Obama: “We cannot continue to rely on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we’ve set. We’ve got to have a civilian national security force that’s just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwaAVJITx1Y
GLOBAL JIHAD’S BIGGEST VICTORY – Non Muslim nations, US/EU teamed up with Islamic nations – demand vulnerable little Israel surrender half her Holy Land to Muslims bent on Jewish genocide-70% of PA Muslims support savage suicide bombings of Jewish innocents.
The Free World is in a fight for her survival! Israel, stand strong! NEVER give up the fight for freedom! NEVER surrender to the global jihad onslaught! Not one inch of Land to barbaric, implacable enemies!
NEVER agree to vicious and evil ethnic Jew cleansing!
Well said!
We, the people of Honduras feel abandoned by the international community! We have just acted to defend our laws, our freedom, our democracy. No coup has taken place here, but a lawful destitution of a corrupt megalomaniac who used socialism as a crutch to support his ultimate goal of staying in power indefinitely under strict compliance of Chavez’s so-called socialist franchise!
Long Live Democracy, Long Live our Freedom, long Live the Rule of Law…. Long Live The Republic of Honduras!
#2. Deep Brain Diarist
#11. Knight J
Say, are you two married?
#38,
Long live the Republic of Honduras? Egads. Last time anyone on here talked to a Honduran they probably told him that he needs to take his illegal alien butt back home.
I wish Sarah would give a speech in defense of the Honduran Constitution.
Boy, the left’s heads would explode.
There wouldn’t be enough popcorn even in Iowa.
38. Rene:
“We, the people of Honduras feel abandoned by the international community!”
We? 50%? 40%? 10%? 1%?
Zelaya subverted everything he or one of his associates got their hands on. Rigged elections are just the tip of the iceberg. And yes, I feel abandoned in Honduras. “Friends” like the European Union and the United States are trying to subvert a very democratic system here by forcing the return of Mel Zelaya.
From Tegucigalpa
vivo
90% who support the legal government of Honduras. We are not only abandoned-we are in danger of being murdered by foreign invaders from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and other communist dictators.
It is interesting that Zelaya is in Nicaragua today helping Ortega celebrate the armed overthrow of a democratically elected government by communist thugs.
From Nicaragua, former President Zelaya urged the United States Government to increase sanctions on the Honduran Government.
Meanwhile, Arias had asked for an additional seventy-two hours to continue his mediation efforts.
Zelaya said he would give Arias the 72 hours he had requested, but if no deal was reached he would return to Honduras as early as Thursday despite a standing threat from the de facto government to immediately arrest him.
Dan,
I don’t know if you can afford it, but if you can, you should invest in renting some satellite time and checking out what is going on yourself. Before pooh-poohing the idea, at least ask a few questions….
You live in what may well become a danger zone, and Panamá may be in the middle of troop movements.
In all truth, I would avoid wasting time on what you think Obama should do, and pay close attention to what he is doing, and the psychological pattern his actions seem to evince. In my opinion, in addition to being a Jew-hater, he is an incompetent. Nevertheless, there is appears to be a pattern to his actions, and Obama seems to telegraph his moves once you have figured out how he views the playing field.
It appears to me that he starts small, and moves slowly to a more extreme position with time. This appears to be the case here, as it has been with his demands on Netanyahu to freeze all construction in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem.
Linda Rivera has it on the money, by the way. The regime in Honduras is being purposely de-legitimized by the United States in the exact same way the movement to settle all of the Land of Israel has been de-legitimized.
Ruvy, I wish I could afford some satellite time. However, there are quite a few blogs out there which seem to present valid and timely information. Here is one of them. La Gringa posts daily from Honduras, and cites various sources. This blogger in Venezuela does a pretty good job of watching things there.
I think it very unlikely that troops will move through Panama. Venezuela is separated from Panama by Colombia, and moving Venezuelan troops through here would be extremely difficult; it would also very likely be opposed by the new President of Panama, who overwhelming defeated a chavista candidate and took office on 1 July. There are enough troops in Chavez’s ally Nicaragua, right on the border with Honduras.
I agree that “Linda Rivera has it on the money” for most of the same reasons.
Here is an article from today’s la Prensa, a major newspaper published in Panamá. The original Spanish text and an English translation are provided. The article states,
This expression of “sympathy” from President Uribe is probably the best news for Honduras since the “not legal coup” last month. Uribe had previously spoken tepidly concerning the situation in Honduras. Note also that the article speaks of del nuevo Gobierno hondureño,” not of the “defacto” government.
According to this article, from the same source, talks in Costa Rica have been postponed awaiting a “new proposal” from President/Mediator Arias. President Michelettii has instructed his principal negotiator, Carlos Lopez to “keep working.” As stated in the first linked article, Mr. Lopez is the foreign minister of the new Honduran Government, who had discussions with Colombian President Uribe on 20 July.
Maybe this will put a cork in Zelaya’s bid to return as president
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/22/video-millions-honduran-cash-missing/
According to this brief article, which appeared a few minutes ago, the “new proposal to end Honduran crisis includes ousted president’s return in 2 days.” No further details were made available.
Should the new Government accept it, chaos would likely result in Honduras, Chavez would have won and the rule of law would have lost.
Talks are back on, Honduran authorities agreed to allow Zelaya a return to power & hold open elections-just as soon as Obama proves his US citizenship.
Smitty — don’t hold your breath.
They should have arrested him in the first place instead of exiling him at gunpoint.
It now appears to be almost certain that former President Zelaya will try to enter Honduras on Friday. He is now going to the border with Nicaragua.
Should Zelaya return, he is quite likely to be arrested for the crimes he is said to have committed.
Update
Former Honduran President Zelaya crossed into Honduras from Nicaragua today. The reactions from the OAS and from Secretary Clinton were less than enthusiastic:
According to the Honduran military, there are concerns that Zelaya’s own followers may seek to make a martyr of him.
Further Update
According to this article, former President Zelaya got to the border with Nicaragua but no further.
Police in riot gear waited a short distance over the border and a helicopter flew overhead as Zelaya approached.
Discussions in Costa Rica are apparently continuing to some extent, and Honduran officials are apparently considering various proposals advanced by Costa Rican President/Mediator Arias.
I screwed up. Please place comment #57 with this:
Here is what I consider a reasonable interpretation of the situation.