Will Turkey Turn Back Toward the West Next Year?
Turkey is lost under Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). They are firmly in the camp of Iran despite their competition over the title of reigning anti-Israel champion. Israel has labeled the IHH — the group that tried to break the Gaza blockade with the Marvi Marmara — a terrorist group, which indirectly labels Turkey a state sponsor of terrorism because of the AKP and Erdogan’s close ties to the IHH. Luckily, this may only last for a year.
The AKP and Erdogan are still popular in Turkey, but the main opposition group, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), has chosen a new leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is being well-received. Assisted by Erdogan’s overreaching domestically and internationally, the CHP may ride a backlash that leads to defeat or clipped wings for AKP during the next general election scheduled for July 2011.
A new poll shows the CHP with a one percent lead over the AKP at a time when support for Erdogan is supposed to be high because of the confrontation with Israel. The opposition is already taking aim at Erdogan’s foreign policy. This means that they feel he is more vulnerable on this issue than the current wisdom suggests. (The current wisdom holds that his provocations are good political investments.)
“There is a crisis in trust with the West because of their [the AKP] politics and the AKP needs to repair it immediately. If they don’t, then we will see worse results in the next few months,” Kilicdaroglu said. He has clearly called for Turkey to reverse course, decrying “the shift in our axis.”
At the same time, a group of Turkish diplomats is going after Erdogan for having an “adventurous” foreign policy. They are accusing him of neo-Ottomanism. It is very encouraging that there has been such a quick reaction against Turkey’s latest moves against the West and against Israel. The Turkish public is still opposed to Western policy and the CHP has condemned Israel for the flotilla raid, but there is definite angst over the overall Islamist trend and aligning against the West.
The Turkish population is vehemently against terrorism. A poll in September found that only four percent support suicide bombings and only two percent expressed confidence in Osama bin Laden to “do the right thing regarding world affairs.” Another poll from February found that Hezbollah is only looked favorably upon by three percent of the population and Hamas by five percent. Erdogan may well have overreached in his movement of Turkey’s foreign policy into the Islamist camp.
The AKP was originally careful with how it went about turning Turkey away from pro-Western secularism, because they understood that they won because their opponents were splintered. One of the keys to the AKP’s original 2002 electoral victory was the rule that parties failing to win 10 percent of the vote are not given a seat in parliament. If you look at the results, this excluded many anti-Islamist parties because their support was divided among voters, creating competition that ultimately doomed them all.
“Things are very bad with Turkey right now — but democracy, the process used by the AKP to come to power, may very well be its undoing next July.”
Unfortunately, I don’t share this optimism. Nothing succeeds like success, and Iran is succeeding beyond its wildest dreams. These stupid UN sanctions against Iran are a joke and Iran is merrily going along its path to becoming a nuclear power. Turkey sees this and is not stupid. Iran is on Turkey’s border and they see which way the political “winds” are blowing. They also have that never-ending problem with the Kurds, so both Turkey and Iran have an interest in joining in a fight against them. Turkey knows that having a friendly Iran on its border is much more valuable than being a good member of NATO, which these days (now that the Cold War is over and Russia is no longer a major threat) does nothing for it. Always remember, too, that Islamic fundamentalists were swept into power in neighboring Iran and then they just decided to keep it and stay in power. So once these people are in power, it could be impossible to throw them out, regardless of “elections.”
In fact, even in supposedly better times, our “friend” Turkey did not allow us to invade Iraq from Turkey, making the assault on Iraq much harder. Some friend. They wouldn’t even help us when Saddam Hussein was in power!
Nope, I think the only trump card we have against Turkey is preventing them from entering the European Union. We know the French, and probably the Germans, are against this, so why not support them? Punish the Turks economically, where it hurts most, and let them live in their Islamic “paradise.” The many pro-Western Turks will be frustrated and angry that their current government is alienating trading partners in Europe and may decide to overthrow the current pro-Islamic government.
Also, remember that the Turkish military has overthrown civilian governments in the past. Cultivate pro-Western Turkish generals and admirals and convince them that following Iran can only spell disaster for Turkey. Keep your eyes on the Turkish military, too, because if all the senior officers are replaced by Islamists, then it will probably be too late to save it from becoming another Iran.
Time is short and we must act fast to stop Turkey from drifting away from us. But with Captain Wiz-Bang in the White House and his horrible little toady Hillary sitting in the wings sucking her thumb, I’m not too optimistic on where all of this is going. Hope I’m wrong, though. There simply is too much at stake for us to “lose” Turkey.
Turkey will be watching the electoral horse races in the US this November,
and will likely make its decision by January, when the winner’s changes in
US foreign policy, if any, are made; There is no more time to procrastinate.
Sadly, I do not see it. Erdogan has been slowly but surely over the past 8 years breaking down the firewalls that Ataturk set up nearly 100 years ago that made Turkey an essentially western nation. He has intimidated and harassed ex-military people, the intelligentsia and other pro-western elements of Turkish society through threats and outright intimidation.
I think it may be too late and that Turkey is going the way of Iran circa 1979. Slower to be sure, but inexorably onward towards an Islamist theocracy.
I’m not an expert on Turkey, by any means. But, from what I’m given to understand, when Ataturk instituted his pro-Western reforms, the western, Europe-oriented part of the country and the eastern, Middle-East oriented part of the country were roughly equal in terms of population, standard of living, etc.
Since then, the modern, Western half has basically followed Western ways, with Western standards and Western reproduction rates. The Islamist half of the country has done the opposite.
The demographics made the Islamist takeover inevitable, at least in a Turkish democracy. The Western side has obvious advantages, on which Mr. Mauro makes some excellent points. And it’s entirely possible that Erdogan has overreached. But I just don’t see the pro-Western forces in Turkey being able to overcome the demographic imbalance or Western diplomatic policies, especially that of the United States. If Obama handles Turkey the way he handled the trouble in Honduras and the eruption of protests in Iran last year, pro-Western/democracy people in Turkey will lose.
“Will Turkey Turn Back Toward the West Next Year?”
Nope.
Next question?
Erdogan offers plenty of nothing. That is what the Turks will get. They can expect what they see happening in Iran. What the Turks really need is to get a life.
Libertyship46,
I can assure you that the German population overwhelmingly is against a Turkish EU accession. In terms of percentage points, the ratio is in the high 80s, if not in the 90s. Simple reason: We have plenty of Turks in our country, and our experience with them is overwhelmingly and dramatically negative (school and other violence, crime, lowering of educational standards, unemployment due to unemployability or cheating of the system, hugely disproportinate claims of welfare benefits — you name it).
However, this kind of popular sentiment (encompassing all political strains: otherwise such numbers could never be reached) in this wonderful country of ours doesn’t assure that our beloved guardians of the people, our political elite, won’t push the idea regardless. You see, we must demonstrate that we are “tolerant” and that the EU isn’t “a Christian club” — when that’s exactly what it is and should be.
I don’t know about the sentiment towards Turkey in the Mediterranean countries, but I suspect that it isn’t exactly favorable either. People there probably easily — and correctly — transfer their experience with the Muslim Arabs on the opposite Mediterranean shore, historical and present, to the Turks.
I know for a fact though that in virtually all of Eastern and Southeastern Europe people are viscerally anti-Turkish. After all large parts these regions were for many centuries colonies of the Ottoman Empire (Hungary, Bulgaria, Rumania, Greece, etc.) or frontline states desperately fighting to maintain their independence against the encroaching Turco-Ottoman imperialism (Austria — think Sieges of Vienna –, Poland, Croatia, Slovenia). People(s) don’t easily forget that kind of experience.
As an aside, Turco-Ottoman imperialism and colonialism in Europe much preceded European imperialism and colonialism in Africa; Turkish colonialism more deserves this name than its European successor in Africa since it much more pursued a policy of implanting conquering foreign (and Muslim) populations in the dominated areas; and Turkish imperialism and colonialism lasted much longer than its later exotic European counterparts: 400 years as opposed to 100.
The event Mavi Marmara is nothing but a conversion of the confession of the so called armenian genocide, which was accepted by Turkey last year on October 2009 in Zurich. The insistence on Israel’s apology is nothing but to hide the acceptance of the last year’s agreement on genocide from the nation.
Since 1979 as Ayatollahs came to power in Iran, from the European media we heard nothing but Turkey is on he way to become the second Iran. 31 years have past and Turkey has never been a second Iran. Why? Atatürk has closed the way back by introducing the latin alphabet, otherwise Turkey would be at least another Egypt. That is my own explanation, as one who witnessed the time of Atatürk’s reign.
The point is moot: a country CAPABLE of oscillating into/out of Islamism, a year here and an election cycle there, has forfeited any claim on our trust. It’ll be gratifying if Turkey boots the likes of Erdogan, but no one should consider his successors reliable allies or factor them into long-term considerations–the AKP voters knew what they were getting, and if they elected them once, they’ll do so again.
A minor aside: I can’t think of a SQUARE INCH of Turkish land that wouldn’t be more civilized, more humane, and more functional if the Turks had never occupied it. This fact may be unprecedented in world history–even the Huns were arguably an improvement over some of the eastern tribal areas they overran. If only there were someone other than the Greeks we could give Constantinople back to…
Well, theoretically there ARE the Russians….
What I said then I say now: the Turks have never been and with the current camps never will be a part of the West in any way, shape, or form. Attaturk’s much-ballyhoed “reforms” have locked the nation into a tiny tinpot oppertunistic banana republic that occasionally sides with us when it sees an advantage in doing so. The Kemalists- whom disturbingly many people see as our friiends- sold us up the river more times then not when they could, first to the Germans, than to the Russians. It is a mistake to trust them.
Expect to prepare for the eventual removal of Turkey from NATO, as it is clearly not even an ally in name.
Turkey, much more than Iraq, is a indicator that it is possible to turn an Islamic state in something other.
It is interesting the point done by Azmi Güran. Without the ability to read the Quran in original, the people of Turkey is unable to return to the “origin”. People in Turkey is stuck with the Latin alphabet and I don’t think we will see a return of written and spoken Arab. Too much hassle for the common man and woman. In many nations in Europe, the local Muslims try hard to keep their links with their homelands; the Islamic schools stress so much on learning Arabic and the Quran.
But, if they are not able to form a critical mass for speaking and writing, they will lose their knowledge of Arab language and their cultural/religious links, as the the Quran and Islam are tightly connected to the Arab.
Losing the ability to speak and write in Arab have the added feature to make easier for the anti-terrorism police to control them.