Will the Muslim Brotherhood Rule Egypt?
Everyone is trying to figure out what the new Egypt will look like, with some polls painting a nightmare scenario and another one causing cheers. The dizzying contradictions in the polls capture the complexities of Egyptian opinion and can guide a strategy to limit the Muslim Brotherhood’s inevitably large gains.
First, the very, very bad news. The Egyptian people overwhelmingly support the introduction of elements of Sharia into their government. A Pew poll from 2010 registered 84% support for executing those that leave Islam, 82% support for stoning adulterers, and 77% support for whippings and cutting the hands off of those guilty of theft. A significant minority of 22 percent say that a non-democratic form of governance is sometimes the best option and only 36 percent feel a non-Muslim should be allowed to run for president. A poll by Zogby found that 65 percent felt the “clergy must play a greater role in our system.”
The foreign policy of the new Egypt will undoubtedly move in a direction more hostile to the West. Zogby found last July that America has an 85% disapproval rating and 52 percent have a negative opinion of the American people. The U.S. and Israel are viewed universally as the biggest threats. Nearly 80 percent feel it would be a good thing if Iran acquired nuclear weapons and 56 percent believe it is trying to do just that.
A World Public Opinion poll from 2009 found that 64 percent of Egyptians have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood and 69 percent believe it is a democratic organization. Only 22 percent feel it is an extremist group that is not genuinely democratic. This poll means that the Brotherhood has a very good chance of winning an outright majority in a parliamentary election if it forms a bloc with Mohammed ElBaradei and other parties.
Nonetheless, here are some poll results that could lift you up a bit. The most recent poll, carried out by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy from February 5-8, had very encouraging results. Before jumping for joy, however, bear in mind that it only polled Egyptians in Cairo and Alexandria, two of the wealthier areas with the most Western influence. The Brotherhood gets the bulk of its strength from the poorer population that’s less affected by globalization and the West. Taken together, Cairo and Alexandria account only for some 12 million of Egypt’s 80 million souls.
That being said, this shows the major cities could form a base from which to challenge the Brotherhood. Only 15 percent in these two cities approve of the Muslim Brotherhood and only one percent would vote for a Brotherhood candidate for president. Only four percent want ElBaradei, the Brotherhood’s mask, to become president. To put this in perspective, former President Mubarak and Vice President Suleiman each scored 18 percent. The secretary-general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, led with 29 percent.
In these two cities, 37 percent want to preserve the peace treaty with Israel versus 22 percent who want to revoke it. When respondents were asked what they wanted Egypt to be like in 5 to 10 years, only 12 percent said they wanted Sharia fully implemented. Being hailed as the first Arab democracy is the vision of 22 percent, and the foremost concern of 17 percent is being known as a center of modernization and tourism. A little over one-fourth care most about Egypt being respected and feared, showing a strong nationalist sentiment.
When asked about the causes of the uprising, only four percent said it happened because the government was not Islamic enough and seven percent said it’s because Mubarak was too close to the U.S. and Israel. In terms of foreign policy, 19 percent want Egypt to be a full-fledged member of a pro-American bloc; 18 percent want to revoke the peace treaty with Israel and confront the Jewish state; 16 percent want distance from the U.S. and an independent course; and 15 percent want an alliance with Iran and Syria against “imperialism” and “colonialism.”
The polls show that a significant amount of Egyptians do not like specific terrorist groups. In the Washington Institute for Near East Policy poll, only 17% of those in Cairo and Alexandria approve or somewhat approve of the Hamas regime in Gaza. This contradicts a nationwide poll showing Hamas with a 49% approval rating with 48% opposing it. It is frightening that al-Qaeda is supported by one-fifth, but 72% oppose the terrorist organization. As for Hezbollah, 30% approve of the group and 66% do not. A huge majority of 80 percent feel suicide bombings are never or rarely justified and 70 percent say they are concerned about Islamic extremism in the world. A little bit over 60 percent are worried about Islamic extremism in their own country.
So what do we make of this statistical hodgepodge?
The Egyptian people want major elements of Sharia law introduced but they want to elect who carries it out. They do not want a theocracy where they have no say. Egypt’s foreign policy will go in a direction more hostile to the West but a nationalist streak means they want independence, though there are strong pro-Western and pro-Islamist blocs. There is a huge desire for modernization, but they do not want to compromise their Islamic identity. And the polls indicate that the strongest rival to the Muslim Brotherhood and Mohammed ElBaradei would be a coalition led by Arab League Secretary Amr Moussa that includes secular nationalists.
These stats also reveal a possible strategy by the Brotherhood’s domestic opponents and the West. The key is to dispel the notion that the Brotherhood is a democratic group as nearly 70 percent believe, particularly by pointing to its own doctrine and tying it to Hamas and Iran. Its commitment to elections and political freedoms must be brought into question. ElBaradei’s affection for Iran and allegations that his campaign received Iranian financing must also become a part of this narrative.
Their opponents need to also make the case that the Brotherhood’s primary concern is Sharia and that the group is not qualified to manage the economy. It must be stated that a radical agenda will inhibit foreign investment, tourism, and economic improvements. A Western threat to cut off all aid if the peace treaty with Israel is abrogated can underscore these points. These lines of attack would play upon the Egyptians’ nationalism, fear of Islamic extremism, longing for democracy, and desire for modernization.
It is also critical that broad freedoms are immediately granted to allow the Brotherhood’s domestic rivals to play catch up to its decades-long head start in organizing, offer alternative ideas, and, most importantly, put it on the defensive. The West can provide aid in preparing for a democratic transition and elections as it does in other countries and focus these efforts on making the entire country as competitive as possible for the contesting parties.
It is foolish to think Egypt will become the Arab equivalent of Israel towards the West, but it doesn’t have to become the next Gaza Strip or Lebanon either.
It might as well be the Klu Klux Klan for all the U.S. is going to have anything to do with it.
a religion that murders it’s followers for leaving the fold is NOT a
religion, it’s not even a cult. it is slavery that is ignored by the
world because it is done in the name of god
One thing we can pretty well count on from a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt is that the same old small group of wealthy families which has pretty much owned & operated the place since Muhammad Ali destroyed the Mamelukes will continue to do so. Except that the individuals who are currently at the top of those families will be replaced by different individuals with impeccable Muslim Brotherhood credentials.
Something similar happened in both Nicaragua and Iran. Much of the Sandinista leadership were members of the same families who ran Nicaragua under Somoza and, when the Sandinista regime lost an election (big mistake, comrades – Stalin’s statement on the subject has been confirmed here: http://urbanlegends.about.com/od/dubiousquotes/a/stalin_quote.htm), they in turn were replaced by still other members of the same families.
Not too long after the Shah of Iran’s fall, the small group of families which ran that country under him were back to running it again, only via family members wearing robes & turbans as opposed to business suits. Admittedly they have had to share a bit more but sharing is always an issue in such countries.
The more things change, the less they change.
This does not mean that a Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt would not end up being destroyed by us, along with most Egyptians, for reasons explained by Richard Fernandes in his Three Conjectures:
http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/2003/09/three-conjectures-pew-poll-finds-40-of.html
Egypt merits far more military respect than Iran, as proven by 1973, and possibly more than Pakistan. While a Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt would not be capable of posing any conventional forces threat to its neighbors other than (maybe) the Sudan, it would quickly be able to deploy a fair number of nuclear weapons, and that gets us to the Three Conjectures.
Will the Muslim Brotherhood Rule Egypt? Do camels crap in the desert?
With 80 million people to feed and a huge famine in china, I say god help us if they elect a pro us regime. We can’t feed our own people. Let the MB be responsible for their misery.
Where have you gone
Queen Neferiti
A lonely nation
Turns it’s lonely eyes to you
Woo hoo hoo
“Where have you gone
Queen Neferiti
A lonely nation
Turns it’s lonely eyes to you
Woo hoo hoo”
Queen Nefertiti
Don has it right.
The Muslim Brotherhood are the expert in the art of Deception (Takiyya )
It is not a question of if, but when.
If it is not Muslim Brotherhood, it could be a evolution of other radical groups, may be Muslim Masterhood ? Hamas Eqyptian Jihad.
Prophet Mohammad have declared in 760 AD, that all infidels must come under the rule of Islam ( I Slam ) or face the sword.
So “infidels”, belt up.
“The Egyptian people overwhelmingly support the introduction of elements of Sharia into their government.”
Absolutely. Otherwise women’s families would have to pay for clitorectomies! Oh, wait, they already do! Never mind.
“84% support executing those that leave Islam …”
The United Nations will be so pleased to learn that,
“77% support for whippings and cutting the hands off of those guilty of theft …”
Gee, what’s the fine for tax evasion? — Hmmmmm, Timmy?
“The foreign policy of the new Egypt will undoubtedly move in a direction more hostile to the West …”
Oh, well, then we should fund them heavily through U.S. Aid.
“Taken together, Cairo and Alexandria account only for some 12 million of Egypt’s 80 million souls …”
Paging Mao Tse Tung … (mention of “souls” notwithstanding”).
Actually I would double that to some 23 million.
“… this shows the major cities could form a base from which to challenge the Brotherhood …”
Paging Pol Pot …
“Only four percent want ElBaradei, the Brotherhood’s mask, to become president …”
Only 0.0014% agreed with the statement that “Mubarak is a swell guy” — so what?
What exactly did everyone expect…?
Democracy is damn bloody business, and nobody can predict which way it will turn. It was ignorant to Invade Iraq in 2003, and it was Ignorant through CIA and other groups to plant the seeds of Democracy in nations when there is no framework in place to guide it.
Its when people believe their own BS that problems arise, in this case the creators of US foreign Policy the last 60 years regarding the Middle East. There are political and Royal bloodlines in Middle east a thousand years old, 60 years is nothing to wait for grave errors in judgement and force advantage; as Iran did in Iraq when US invaded in 2003, as Saudi Arabia did with President Nixon in 1971, As the House of Saud has done with the Bush Family the last 40 years, and as is occurring today with fundamental Islamic interests with President Obama.
The geography of the Middle east was radically altered by British and US politics and military the last 100 years, and is slowly being forced back though the Saudi funding of Wahabbi and terrorism, Through outright war and insurgency in Iraq, through infiltration of western society, and Economic pressures on US dollar and energy structure;
Iraq will become a satellite of Iran, or simply be absorbed by Iranian political and economic interests. The US played into Iranian intelligence and spy networks in overthrowing Saddam, we did Iran’s Dirty work for them. (Mr Chalibi was / is an Iranian Spy) and provided the Bush administration with manufactured intelligence.
The House of Saud has been funding Wahabbi terrorist training and fundamentalist / Sharia theology schools to the tune of over 100 Billion since 1973, when President Nixon Shifted the foundation of the US dollar to Saudi Petroluem reserves. This movement exists in US and European Prisons, in schools located in USA and Europe, and is funded by the sale of Saudi Petroleum, and trading of US dollar by Saudi banking interests.
The US is impotent with anything Saudi Arabia does, as we have inexplicably placed the fabric of the American Dollar (Petro Dollar system) in their hands to control.
The Muslim Brotherhood is a multi-national outreach program, and will link with other Muslim programs once their goals have been achieved.
The American Nation is rapidly headed towards the cliff, and the best people can do is argue whether the driver is liberal or conservative. Maybe it would be better to turn the car around, then worry about the Politics.
It doesn’t seem likely that the protesters who took to the streets to be beaten, shot, gassed and arrested did so in the name of putting themselves under the yoke of the Muslim Brotherhood.
I don’t think they’ll put up with it and I have not heard one word from the protesters about this being in any way about religion. Egyptians are generally conservative and traditional but this does not translate any more into wanting all their women veiled than does Norman Rockwell symbolizing Christian fundamentalism.
You haven’t heard it because the media doesn’t want you to see it and you haven’t looked hard enough at the messages on the signs and the words being spoken.
Our media ONLY cares how these people view Obama’s involvement and that people don’t start to look at the Muslim world as being a repeat of Germany during the riots that brought in Hitler – like they should be doing.
Everything is a curse on America and Israel. Everything said in the Arab street is attaching the regimes that are being booted to us and the Jews and laying the blame for the people’s misery at our feet. Not just in Egypt but everywhere else in the Muslim world.
WWIII is burning on the horizon and our media is fiddling mighty loud to keep you from hearing the roar of the flames.
Actually I have looked hard enough at the signs which are almost all variations on “Mubarak Get Out!”.
If all of Egypt were Cairo May would be right.
#16 alex – that’s quite the conspiracy theory! Have fun with it. You know, conspiracy theories are ‘virtual realities’, purely imaginary. Islamic fascism is also a conspiracy theory!
#17 james may – thanks for your insight. I agree – the protesters aren’t seeking to supplant one dictatorship with another. That era is over.
The fact that each and every individual now has the power to access information, to interact with others – via the electronic net – means that power no longer rests within a vertical top-down authority. The power over information – and reality – belongs with the people.
And I am sceptical of the PEW polls; their data was contradictory. I’d rely more on the Washington Institute.
Of all the claims you have made here, including those equating Israeli ‘settlers’ with typical Arab political behavior, the one about Islamic fascism being a conspiracy theory takes the cake. At a certain point folks like you and May must be confronted and ridiculed, no matter if your motivation is clean as the driven snow. At the same time, this nearly maniacal naivete may serve the purpose of waking other folks up. So maybe you should just keep making these claims….
Well pal, we keep waiting for you to confront us, maybe with your own version of what we speculate on, but instead you just give us the ridicule half.
Since I was actually IN Tahrir Square during 9 of 16 days Jan.29-Feb.13, this reveals my “naivete” to actually be the voice of experience and your own certainties to be revealed as in fact residing in the land of “claims” and “naivete”.
This puts you in the strange position where, in order for you to follow your own imperatives, you are at once confronting and ridiculing yourself.
Well done – I’m not “maniacal” but the Ahab who was looked awful stupid tangled up in his own harpoon ropes. Logistically difficult and you are to be applauded – so again, well done.
Tell me Mr. May when you were in Tehrir Square did you notice as CNN did that when it came time for prayer 60% bowed reverently to Allah while the rest disrespectfully stood standing? This is emblematic of the ideological divide and coming clash and chaos between Islamists (Islam is the answer) and secularists (freedom is the answer) temporarily held in check by their common hatred for Mubarak. Egypt is on the brink of a deadly abyss and no amount of positive thinking on our part can change that.
Larry, I have a prescription for the addled among us, surely it will wake them up, or, at least get their immediate attention.
I would mandate they have to attend Lesson 101 re Islamic ‘intentions’-a front row seat in S’derot, as flush up to the border fence with Gazan jihadists as possible. As the rockets/missiles fly over head, said addled folks MUST stand in place, not even given a second to run into one of the MANY bomb shelters littering the streets.
IF after said experience the deluded/apologists for Islamic terror(same difference) still ! believe that they are nothing more than a mirror image of Jews settling their land, then I guess we will just have to up the ante-moving them straight into Gaza, or Hizbullah territory,thereby letting the terror chips fall where they may.
In my experience there is NO substitute for reality based living to smack sense into nonsensical heads.
Missiles away……
This comment keeps the winning streak intact of no confrontation but with the ridicule once again intact.
Rockets flying out of Gaza has absolutely nothing to do with the issue on the table and so it’s really a childishly transparent straw man argument dressed up in overweening arrogance that dispenses naivete to those on the scene and expertise to those not.
It is a typical liberal charade where moral high ground and sheer intellect trumps observation and experience.
Congratulations, you are hovering somewhere between plain ignorance and disinformation and propaganda.
My thoughts about Gaza are world’s apart from Tahrir Square.
This is the smartest article I’ve read about Tahrir:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/miles-mogulescu/signs-i-didnt-see-in-tahr_b_823053.html
Well said. The naivete of some never ceases to amaze me. Still looking at the surface instead of what’s underneath as the world did with Hitler, Castro, and Chavez. I’m also amazed that Obama and Clinton aren’t throwing more money at them in support only to have it thrown back at us as Castro did.
Obama cut funding for promoting democracy in Egypt long before the uprising.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/28/obama-cut-egypt-funding_n_815731.html
James May: You are incoherent. Please channel Queen Nefertiti and try again.
It’s quite coherent – please channel the Rosetta Stone and try again; or maybe a reading comprehension DVD.
Or maybe Mad’s Snappy Answers to Stupid Questions which at least had the dual qualities of actually being both clever and funny.
It is a pity that Egypt has chosen the barbaric, the savage and the backward. Because of their love of these things they will also have poverty, ignorance and misery.
To persue injustice as your delight, simply means that the scales will come down heavy upon oneself.
Personally, because of their choices, I don’t see that they have anything to build upon.
MOSLEM BROTHERS TO FORM POLITICAL PARTY AFTER RENOUNCING THE QUEST FOR POWER
Islam is a totalitarian political faith where mosque and state are inseperably linked governing society by God’s final truth and revelation: THE “HOLY” KORAN. So it came as no surprise to me to see the treacherous, lying Moslem Brotherhood within 48 short hours doing a somersault on the question of seeking political power in post-Mubarak Egypt. Indeed, what Mohammed Mursi, spokesman for the group’s political bureau, said Sunday was reversed today possibly in honor of the Prophet Mohammed’s birthday. After announcing Sunday that the Brothers “would not seek political power…..and the office of Presidency” Mursi shamelessly said that “The Muslim Brotherhood believes in the freedom to form parties and is therefore determined to have one.” As I noted Sunday what Mursi said was pure Islamic deception. Mursi then said that the Brothers would be applying for political party status with the state.
But what was it that happened these last two days to change the group’s decision not to enter the hustle and bustle of politics? A MIRACLE! Something that the Brothers hadn’t anticipated or thought possible given the longstanding hostility of the secular military to their Islamist agenda. Appearently on Sunday the Brothers had cause to believe that the constitutional ban on religious groups forming political parties wouldn’t be lifted; and instead of confronting the military on the matter they thought it best to publicly renounce having political ambitions and run their candidates stealthily as individuals-like they did in 2008 when they won 88 seats in parliament. But then came the game changing miracle: the eight member panel charged by the Military Supreme Council to amend the country’s constitution would include none other than Sobhi Saleh, a Moslem Brother of high standing and former parliament member. It’s likely that after consulting with Salah the Brothers were convinced that their big day was coming; that their organization would be legitimized after 55 years and allowed to run in the elections. If true this was a bad move by the military as it makes the Brothers’ path to power that much easier.
If the Brotherhood party calls itself KHALIFA then you will have your answer as to where this is going.
They even had a website with this name 2 days or so ago, but it is gone now (its hard to search with 80% of the sites being for some Wiz-khalifa clown filling the pages).
I expect Zahwahiri (and maybe even bin Laden) to fly in to a heroes welcome in Cairo within 2 months.
yes
the egyptians are basically sheep- they’ll follow whomever promises to keep things quiet, keep the stores open and the buses running
Change that to “Jews are basically sheep” and see what kind of response you get here. The double standard is amazing to me.
A bold prediction, going out on a limb I admit, but whatever happens in Egypt the U.S. policy will mangle our own interests in the region and intentionally or otherwise, advance murderous islam.
Further, the idiot in the W H will make many speeches that , as always, talk of bull—- “ideals and aspirations”,not meaning a word of it & inducing vomit among normal Americans, but rapture among our media.
Egypt will eventually go down the tubes, Obama will love it. The media will cover his ass and dead brain.
The news of the assault on Lara Logan has been a revelation. Not specifically about her, but about how the News media is covering up the real situation in Egypt. A few, mostly conservative, news outlets are reporting that the crowd was chanting Jew, Jew, Jew as she was being assaulted. Most of the news media has omitted this information.
Wherever objects of hatred are objectified as Jews (Logan is not Jewish), this is a classic sign pointing to redirecting the rage and resentment outward, rather than reforming society. People like Mr. May, a frequent commenter here, who up till now I have given the benefit of the doubt, I am now suspicious of. He claims the protests were all about Mubarak. I suspect something else is brewing. The gang rape (that’s probably what it was, even if cbs won’t confirm it) of the “Jew” Logan is telling.
Steve, I was in Tahrir Square at that exact moment, 6 ft. 2, obviously a foreigner and with a giant camera and flash around my neck. I had nothing but smiles, handshakes and welcomes and took a lot of photos and was all around the mammoth crowd.
I must confess to complete bewilderment as to the nature of that attack on Lara Logan. I can’t even speculate how it happened. I can only say that it was so out of keeping with the jubilation of the people that I just can’t figure it out.
Keep in mind that you are talking about a crowd that was consistently welcoming to journalists as it was the pro-Mubarak people that targeted journalists. The anti-government protesters were at all times aware of the worth of having foreign journalists get their story out into the world and this was made clear to me many times by people coming up to me and saying, “Thank you for being here”.
I would caution against that aha moment where one goes, “See! I told you so!” as this incident was unique as far as I know when it comes to the anti-Mubarak protesters. What set them off in this instance and who they were is completely unknown to me and I am still at sea on this one I must admit.
The only chance they have is if outside forces like the US and the EU understand that Egypt needs to have FORCED a decent constitution upon them. You cannot create a constitution that protects minorities with a majority ruling.
There is no other way. The contradiction one needs to grasp is that a country’s first democratic constitution and the first election is basically a coup done by wise people. Democracy cannot be created by democracy. Just like you can’t lift yourself by pulling you shirt collar.
And when they do get it, the EU and US that is, they should use all forces at their disposal to achieve it. ALL FORCES. This issue is more important than anything else that has happened since WW2.
No sooner did PJ publish this idiotic piece of neocon tripe than DrudgeReport published the refutation –http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,745526,00.html
Anyone who harbors any delusion that Egypt is heading for anything other than another Iran-like state of theocracy, and believes that “polls” mean one damned thing, is unschooled in either Islam, revolutions, the dynamics of seizing power, geopolitics (do you really think this has no backing elsewhere??), or reality.
James May,
Perhaps the Egyptian rapists don’t hate men as much as women? That just might explain it.
The Coptic Christians are the canary in the mine. What do they have to ssy about what is going on? Are they packing up and getting ready to leave? They weren’t doing well even under Mubarak. so what can they expect now?
We Americans should try letting these Islamist Arab savages eat each other, and aim our concerns towards the Persian nuclear bombs. Forget the worn-out ideas of the usefulness of USAID, which only feeds graft and off-shore bank accounts.
Those who cite the positive effects of the Marshall Plan in Europe are mixing apples and oranges as applied to Central/West Asia. The peoples’ mindsets inside Asia simply don’t work in ways amenable to Western meddlesome attempts at do-good applications of money and credits.
So, we must accept that there’s not a thing we can do to change “hearts and minds” among those effectively brainwashed by the cancer of Islamist iron rule. This is akin to a re-application of that nauseous phrase from VietNam days and terrible nights.
We’d best look to America’s cyber and anti-nuclear defenses, and get away from the tentacles of OPEC. Self-discipline here at home seems to be a thing of the past. We’d best re-learn what that means.
Contain these Islamists, save America.
This is hot off the presses:
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/5778/Egypt/Politics-/Sheikh-ElTayeb-Article–of-the-constitution-should.aspx
It is getting next to impossible to be overly cynical these days. Insufficient sharing can be fatal for dictators.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20110216.aspx
“Storm Troopers Are Not A Luxury
February 16, 2011: A major reason for the inability of the recently deposed Egyptian dictatorship to suppress anti-government demonstrations was the lack of a large, loyal and reliable security force. Not having such a force handy was unthinkable for any security conscious dictator …
… Former Egyptian ruler Hosni Mubarak got lazy and greedy by filling his “regime maintenance” forces with conscripts (as troops) and recent college graduates (as officers). Theses security forces, like the 325,000 paramilitary police in the Central Security Services (belonging to the Interior Ministry, nor the Defense Ministry), were more loyal to the people than to the small group of corrupt politicians running the country …
… The only people who were loyal to Mubarak were the most senior officers (active or retired) who were allowed a share of the national wealth being stolen by Mubarak, his family and key allies in the business world. By not spreading the largess around, Mubarak insured that he would be unprotected when a popular uprising got started.
Dictators everywhere are noting what happened in Tunisia and Egypt, and what did not happen in other nations undergoing popular uprisings. Expect to see some reorganizations, and more attention being paid to having a reliable KGB, Republican Guard, Waffen SS or Revolutionary Guard when you really need it.”
This column is filled with so many lies & distortions that Mubarak lies pale in comparison – and it was Mubarak who claimed US journalists who were responsible for the protests in Tahrir. The author of this piece as well as most commenters have no idea what they are talking about and both those polls quoted are so full of shit they makes camel dung smell nice. The Muslim Brotherhood will rule Egypt the day the KKK rules the US but judging from the utter stupidity displayed by most Americans when it comes to anything they have to say about Egypt – the KKK dominance might just come to pass.
You were going good up until the part about El Baradei and any internal opponents.
1) Muslim Brotherhood “majority” – Yes, they will get a “majority” in parliament, but it will not be the same kind of majority we think in the west from largely two party systems with one getting more than 50%. We are talking about the MB getting 25-30% of the seats. The problem will be what party, if any, can get an equal block of seats or if any parties would be able to form a large enough coalition block to actually form a government, appoint ministers and control some of the laws being passed. There is a very good likelihood that the next strongest party will be the socialists/labor unions and after that will be the revamped NDP (under a new name) and after that will be the ten to fifteen other parties that fight for what remains of the seats and finds themselves seriously out on the corner fighting for their beliefs. If you have any questions about that, see Iraq. The major parties cannot even form their own government because they don’t have enough seats.
The two sad realities are that the socialists (led by El Baradei) are in bed with the MB and any liberals who hope to compete are going to be stuck making politically dangerous alliances with groups like the reformist NDP party that will emerge.
I would like to echo someone earlier about “yes please” to the MB being part of the government. It is much harder to fight an untried philosophy than it is to destroy a tried and failed philosophy. Also, now they will have something to lose whether it is political or economic power or the physical reality of state.
2) Sharia law in Egypt – you all are aware that Egypt’s laws, while socialist in bent, is based on Sharia law since 1981? Divorce, property rights/inheritance and child custody are three areas that are already controlled by the Sharia. We aren’t actually talking about a drastic change in legal/philosophical direction.
3) El Baradei’s opponents – Well, first Baradei actually has to be an opponent. In a weird kind of revolution without leaders, while there is a group that supports El Baradei, they have yet to coalesce into anything solid or strong. Why? Because the groups that used him for a rallying point are falling apart as we speak.
The Revolutionary Youth Activists (as they styled themselves) were from every sort of political make up including the April 6 Youth movement (socialist in bent, but mostly a network of similar thinkers on “freedom” as opposed to any real political party) and a cohort of MB Youth (who think the old guys at the MB were holding them down) are what moved El Baradei to the forefront. That and Wael Ghonim;s backing.
However, each of these groups are starting to blame the others for negotiating with what appears to be the remains of the regime that figured out how to hang on by letting the military take over. They even accused Ghonim of being an NDP dupe or something. So, what we see now is that everybody is jockeying for position.
I expect that the socialist liberals are going to be the third in line at parliament because it is the labor party that will be second in control of parliament. In case you have wondered what a number of those protests that keep on going are about. This is the labor movement continuing to flex its muscles. It is the labor/MB association that should be worrying people the most.
As far as the million or so who went to Tahrir on Friday, that is because they recognize that the old regime is still in place. All you have to do to know that is to read the list of “interim” ministers. Half of them have “already served” in the NDP regime, most notably around the 2004-2005 period when Mubarek was trying to “appease” the west with opening democracy.
Three key positions including Defense, Interior and the Ministry of justice, have not been changed. The Minister of Finance will go, but the minister of Investment/marketing stays the same. The only positions anyone “new” got were cabinet posts with no real political power such as tourism, immigration, etc.
Oh, and the prime minister remains Shafik who is Mubarek’s pal and choice, close ties with NDP related businesses, etc. Plus, you really think the military guys are going to let their piece of the pie go?
My vision of Egypt goes something like this: a parliament of the people with a heavy dose of MB and socialists/labor milking the state pocket whose second check is not the judiciary or the veto power of the president, but the military who will be very unhappy if their economic power is eroded by strict sharia and Islamist bent interfering with tourism and the all mighty Egyptian pound.