Will North Korea Collapse?
China and Russia have different interests.
Relations between Russia and China — apparently amiable now — could come under strain due to the Korean situation. China would not likely view a “positive impact on Russia’s standing in the Asia-Pacific region” as in her best interests. Although China has occasionally seemed frustrated with North Korea, they retain a symbiotic relationship. China’s acceptance of reunification, as summarized by President Hu, envisions neither collapse of the North nor reunification under Seoul.
Chinese President Hu Jintao has said that “independent and peaceful reunification” of the two Koreas is “in the fundamental interest” of both sides.
Asked whether China believes “that reunification of the Korean peninsula will bring more stability than maintaining the status quo?” Hu said, “As a close neighbor and friend of [both Koreas], China hopes that the North and the South will improve relations and achieve reconciliation and cooperation through dialogue and consultation and eventually realize independent and peaceful reunification, and we support their efforts in this regard. This is in the fundamental interests of both the North and the South and conducive to peace and stability on the peninsula.”
The Chinese leadership has expressed support for reunification independent of the military and political influence of the U.S. and led by the two Koreas themselves several times. But it has been widely believed to prefer the status quo for strategic reasons. (Emphasis added)
With unification on the terms desired by China, it could have more influence over the entire peninsula, including the South, than now.
Reunification and the South
Reunification is decreasingly popular with young South Koreans.
The change is clear both from anecdotal evidence and public opinion polls. In a recent survey conducted by the Peace Research Institute, respondents were asked whether they see North Korea as the same state and North Koreans as their ethnic brethren.
In regard to the first question, 44.1% chose the following response: “In the past North Korea was the same state, but now I am beginning to feel it as a different state.” In regard to ethnic solidarity, a majority (52.9%) said that they still perceive North Koreans as their ethnic brethren, but the second most popular (30.2%) response was: “In the past they were our ethnic brethren, but now I am beginning to feel that they are foreigners.” And an additional 9% said: “North Koreans are as foreign as Chinese.”
Just 15 or 20 years ago, such replies would have been virtually unthinkable. Every good, patriotic Korean, regardless of his/her views on other subjects, was supposed to be an ardent believer in the glory of unification.
Absorbing the North could cost about $3 trillion and be far more difficult than was the reunification of Germany. Meanwhile, North Korean defectors continue to dribble into South Korea, twenty-one on October 30. Although the trip by sea is very dangerous, a total of 21,294 defectors are reported to have arrived by various means as of April of this year. They provide much of the South’s information about the North.
Wishful thinking, that what this article is. Like all psychotic dictators, Kim would rather take down his whole country rather than be overthrown. Gadaffi is a great example of that. They have nothing to lose and certainly no country will take them, so why not pull down the whole nation with you? If things get really bad and there is a real threat to Kim’s power, then Kim will find some flimsy pretext to go to war with South Korea. Not only does Kim have nuclear weapons (which would do a lot of damage to the South), but Kim still has a huge amount of artillery that’s only a few miles away from South Korea’s capital, Seoul. So don’t start celebrating just yet. There are more than enough true communist believers in that country that can kill a lot of innocent people before Kim finally does go down.
Agreed. In fact, this is more or less what I was thinking as I read the article.
I can understand why the Russians would rather have Seoul rather than Beijing calling the shots in Pyongyang. It’s called “Vladivostok”, their major commercial and military port on the Pacific; in fact, it’s their only one on that side which is ice-free year ’round. Having Manchuria “behind” it to the west is bad enough; having it flanked on the south side by a Chinese-dominated North Korea would be significantly worse, notably for Russia’s trade with Japan.
As for North Korea itself compared to Libya, the major difference between Col. Qaddafi (the Man of Many Spellings Of His Name) and Lil’ Kim is that when Moammar saw the handwriting on the wall, he had nobody handy to declare war on.
Attacking a “foreign enemy” is a great way for a tottering dictatorship to rally the troops to the colors one last time. Not least because most of those in the upper echelons know that if the dictator goes down, they go down too. The result is usually an invasion of whoever is handiest. Civil wars against disliked ethnic groups serve roughly the same purpose.
While it doesn’t always work (cf; Falklands War, 1982), it has at least bought a few “Maximum Leaders” either time to run for cover (Amin in Uganda, Siad-Barre in Somalia), or else allowed some of the more psychotic ones to go down in a blaze of imagined glory.
Lil’ Kim and his son Mini-Kim very likely fall into the latter category. If they can’t rule a United People’s Democratic Republic of Korea from the Yalu to Pusan- they will just Blow Everything The F**k Up.
And if either one, or both, have such a last roll of the dice in mind, it will come fairly soon. That is, before the deterioration of the the DPRK’s economy and livability can adversely affect the offensive capability of its military.
I would look for a replay of 25 June 1950 along the DMZ. Except it will probably look a lot more like 22 June 1941- the opening phase of Operation Barbarossa. Think “everything in the North Korean People’s Army, Air Force, and Navy heading South”.
Such a “root, hog, or die!” attack would be well in keeping with not only NKPA strategic studies and capabilities, but also Lil’ Kim’s mentality. Remember, we are dealing with somebody who is at least mostly convinced that He Is A God. Such people rarely reason like the rest of us.
I expect that, if they still have the capability, such an attack will come long before any sort of deterioration and reunification in the 2020s. I would say within the next five years, at the most.
While some people (like a certain TOTUS) may think that we don’t need to worry (while he secretly dreams of the PRC ruling the roost), the better policy for the ROK forces- and U.S. 2nd Infantry Division- is to lock and load.
cheers
eon
I think the reality is that while North Korea might WISH it could stage a Barbarossa style invasion of the South, it is unable to do so. Its aircraft are obsolete or obsolescent, its pilots under trained. Their army’s logistics are crippled – they’re short fuel, food, and ammo; their army has spent more time in the fields harvesting than training.
Finally, assembling the troops for the invasion would be just too darn obvious and we’d love that sort of density in our targets – break out the cluster bombs!
There’s a concern that the change in leaders to the son might cause a demonstration of “new” power on the border. As a show of “preparation” the US military will be sending additional troops during the period of the change-over.
True as far as it goes. But;
1. In a one-shot surge, even forces with little or no logistical depth can inflict tremendous damage. Also, remember that Seoul is a lot closer the the DMZ than Moscow is to the Pripet Marsh.
2. Speaking of the DMZ, we can’t strike across it to hit those marshaling areas. The One wouldn’t like it.
3. Persuant to (2), the first waves across might be starving NK peasants- driven by NKPA machine-gun fire. Rather like driving a flock of sheep through a mine field- except that the defenders don’t dare harm these sheep.
Logically, no, it’s not a high-success-probability gambit overall. But (a) the King of the Hermit Kingdom may not be sane enough to understand this, and/or (b) may not give a damn anyway.
He is more likely to operate on the principle of, “If I don’t get to be God, nobody else gets to live, either.”
cheers
eon
I see another more survial orientated reason for a last ditch assault on South Korea.
Reigniting the ongoing Korean War would set the stage for certain elements in South Korean media to call for concessions with the North This would be championed as a way to quickly end any offensive by the North. The KFR (Kim Family Regime) might be able to win a generous aid package through multilateral negotiations. Likely, China would push hard for such a resolution. No one in the Chinese politburo wants to see South Korean and American troops across the Yellow River.
What the DPRK needs most right now to sustain it’s totalitarian regime is a means to feed its people. The economy inside the country has virtually collapsed, leaving the regime to rely on aid packages, Chinese ventures, and covert sweat labour from nationals working abroad.
This is why the regime occasionally escalates things; drawing the Americans, Chineese and South Koreans back to the negotiating table. For decades he has played this game. As soon as the aid packages dwindle, he performs some act of transnational hostility (attack ships, murder SK ministers, launch missiles over Japan, detonate nukes near the Chinese border). Then the aid agreements and concessions follow, wash, rinse repeat.
Harry, I think eon has already answered your (reasonable) concerns:
To which I can only add, “Bingo.”
My wise father used to say, “Don’t judge other people by yourself.”
That’s good advice in personal life, and in war and politics.
We’ve been hearing about the pending collapse of Iran and DPRK for years and years. It never happens. Maybe something so low is much more resistant to collapse that we appreciated. I think it is entirely possible we will see the collapse of the US first. A liberal society in the classical sense is the aberration. Even our own citizens and especially the young are clamoring in the streets for less freedom, more dependence, more authoritarianism. The fact that our overbearing and asinine security regime is even possible speaks volumes about how far we have sunk.
Air drop 10,000 care packages, each with a canned ham, a bible and a loaded 9MM, and the government falls within a week.
The bible? Yeah, sure. Deuteronomy and Numbers especially.
Drop the Federalist Papers, the Declaration of Independence, and the Bill of Rights.
The Bible? Yeah, sure. The foundation of the Federalist Papers, the Declaration of Independence, and the Bill of Rights.
Or didn’t you know that?
“It’s not what you don’t know that hurts you; it’s what you do know that ain’t so.”
North Korea is already in a Dark Age, thank you.
So, you’re OK with the canned hams and 9MM? The bibles have been known to stop bullets.
That stuff doesn’t matter to most of us. Maybe the N. Koreans will have an appreciation based on their brutal education in uncontrolled government.
Damn few Christians in North Korea. The Bible would be used for toilet paper or kindling. You want a revolution, give them a manifesto. The Declaration of Independence would be much more useful, along with the CIA manual on guerilla warfare.
Communism is a religion to these people. The only way to take down a religion short of absolute genocide is with another religion. Give people the real Jesus and they’ll abandon the cheap imitation.
Brilliant comment, adding the bible is a great idea.
There is enough smiting and murdering in that book to get anyone riled up.
China will not sit idly by and watch an NK collapse with the requisite mass wave of refugees across their border. They would intervene and then it will get really messy for all involved.
China isn’t the juggernaught people think. They have their own problems. But they really could save everyone the headache and just geek L’il Kim.
This just looks like another example of the U.S. starting to get warmed-up to support another “change” with no belief in our Constitution. We freed Iraq from a dictator and left them without the Bill of Rights and now their military (U.S. funded, trained, and equiped) is talking about closer ties to Iran which routinely calls us the Great Satan. I can only imagine the state that we’ll create in North Korea when we try to impose democracy without God, without a Constitution, and without a Bill of Rights. Why oh why do we feel the need to spend our money supporting ANYbody that doesn’t believe in our freedoms? Wouldn’t it just be easier to say NO AID unless you loudly proclaim support for OUR Constitution? Shout it out or eat rubles. But then, of course, there’s no room for GE.
“We” don’t have to impose anything.
Korea is a U.N. operation. They will meld the two systems.
Say, who is the Sec-Gen of the U.N. these days – does the name Ban Ki-moon, ring a bell?
Plus, with re-unification, that pesky 48-yr old Cease-Fire can finally be put to bed.
According to a Voice of America reporter in Seoul,
I’ve been hearing of the collapse within 5 to 10 years of North Korea for at least 30 years. I suspect that North Korea has in fact collapsed years ago and the information kept quiet because there is an industry based on predicting the collapse of North Korea within 5 to 10 years.
I suppose it all depends on what “collapse” means. In a sense, North Korea can’t collapse because it hasn’t been noticeably viable as a country for many decades. Still, the north keeps on keeping on and the Kim Dynasty continues to prosper with rotating threats, provocations and adventures in begging. The Regime leaders continue to live comparatively well and others get by barely if at all.
In February, North Korea opened a new luxury goods store in Pyongyang
Meanwhile,
The Kim Dynasty seems to be on the road to collapse but remains in power. Whether that can continue under Kim junior and whether some Regime faction will displace him are presently unknown.
Tottering Communist regimes don’t collapse until some leader appears ready to admit reality.
The U.S.S.R. might not have collapsed without a Gorbachev-style figure who finally admitted the need for change–and then watched as change gathered momentum and got away from him.
Something like that may be happening in Cuba now that Fidel Castro is no longer the top dictator and his brother Raul isn’t getting any younger either.
But it won’t happen in North Korea until the current ruling family is replaced by someone else, maybe an army general. The Kim family seems content to continue with their fantasies.
North Korea, like Iran, is ferociously anti-Israel. North Korea actually fought against Israel in the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War—despite the fact that Israel is nowhere near North Korea and has never had any conflict of interest or quarrel with it. Richard M. Bennett, writing in the August 18, 2006, edition of AsiaTimes online, informs us that North Korea sent not only arms but pilots to fight those wars: “25 pilots went to Syria during the June 1967 war with Israel and 30 pilots to Egypt and Syria during the Yom Kippur War of 1973.”
This information is essential if we are to understand North Korea’s commitment to supporting Islamic states. North Korea is a major source of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Yes.
A Korean friend of mine has told me that anti-semitism is a frequent theme in the propaganda the North spreads through its leftist allies and dupes in the South. He has shown me things that look like cheap comics from the Third Reich. Truly ugly.
Why is that surprising? As has been noted in other posts, NK’ers are indoctrinated from birth with the notion that their dictator is a god. (I will leave it to theologians to figure out how the dogma can allow for its “god” to die.) It therefore stands to reason they would hate Jews. They would also hate Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, etc. with equal ferocity, simply because they all embrace “false” religions.
Indeed, but most especially Christians, because their emperor cult is a mock-up of Christianity. A counterfeit is only effective when the marks don’t have the chance to compare it to the genuine article.
I’ve blindly held that Kim J. isn’t a Castro or a Gaddafi. That would be nuts if he were… No doubt such a puppet is being trained to take over though.
“most any Asian can easily distinguish Koreans from Japanese, Chinese, etc.”
Sometimes. Sometimes not.
Westerners might think the quoted snippet is the case. Asians don’t. There are certain stereotypes that both Westerners and Asians have about the three named ethnic groups. But each of the stereotypes has so many exceptions that they break down.
Some Asians might claim they have ethnic radar. Just don’t test their claims. You’ll embarrass them when you reveal how faulty their guesses are.
North Korea is the worlds OWS protest carried to the level of nation state size.
let us allow the RoKs to intergrate their Northern brothers into their society and work on our own problems.
Oh, man. I can’t wait.
When the North Korean regime finally falls, it’s going to be a sex-tourist paradise. Legions of young girls willing to do anything for $20 or a pair of blue jeans.
Just like Eastern Europe in the early 1990s.
Dictatorships crumble from within when the dictator allows even the smallest amt. of “reform” or freedom.
It took the Soviet Union about 70 years to collapse and the collapse was ONLY the result of a sort-of-loosening of the govt’s (due to Gorbachev’s )tight control.
Dictatorships collapse when the dictator refuses – for whatever reason – to cease being absolutely ruthless and murderous and tyrannical. Once the people sense that this is the case, it is all over for the dictator.
Stalin, Hitler, Saddam Hussein, Assad Sr. of Syria, etc., all held fast because NO ONE doubted they would use any and all means to exterminate any resistance.
So Assad Jr. in Syria, unlike his father who had no problem killing 30,000 Syrians who rebelled, allowed some demonstrators to live or not be arrested. That is all it took. Ditto for Mubarak.
Castro and his thug-criminal-murdering associates have allowed no such demonstrations. The message he is sending to Cubans is demonstrate or rebel and I will kill you. So, this is why the Cuban people do not rebel; they choose living in an island prison in lieu of death and torture.
(Frankly, the Cuban people, in the aggregate, simply have no problem tolerating their meager existence and as long as they are expected not to work or do much of anything, they will tolerate Castro’s bunch. Not ALL cultures are the same ! Those Cubans who are motivated to improve their lot, for the most part, left long ago, are in prison or dead, or are in the underground economy there).
Kim Jong and his henchman KNOW that if N.Korean people perceive they lack will to use any and all forms of terror and murder to suppress any rebellion, the people will revolt and the rulers will all be KILLED in the revolt – a la Mussolini or Qaddafi of Libya. Basically, Kim Jongs associates have no choice but to remain ruthless murderers and to remain in power.
The clear sign of the demise of the N.Korean ruling psychotic murdering ruling elite will be when the first tiny bit of freedom is allowed; say internet access or allowing more “tourists” to visit or allowing more liberal travel to S.Korea, etc. Then, and only then, can we predict the beginning of the end.
Ironically, it is “change” – allowed by the dictator – that brings the demise of a dictatorship. Kim Jong and his fellow murderers know this.They are not stupid.
The clear sign of the demise of the N.Korean ruling psychotic murdering ruling elite will be when the first tiny bit of freedom is allowed; say internet access . . .
As noted in the third paragraph from the bottom of the article, internet access is spreading, at least among the elite. Support for that assertion is provided here, a video interview with Abraham Kim of the Korean Economic Institute who had recently returned from the North. Mr. Kim also observes that cell phones are becoming more widely available to the elite. I doubt that others have or soon will have such access. This lengthy propaganda video shows happy looking North Korean school children at work with their computers, busily accessing the internet. They are most likely children of the elite and it seems quite unlikely that internet access will soon spread further. This raises a question, whether rebellion may eventually arise among the elite and/or their children. That does seem unlikely if they remain prosperous under the Kim Dynasty, since their self interest would ordinarily suggest that for them to rebel would be suicidal.
Couple issues with this.
1. North Korea maintains only a couple operating cable lines into China. It is extremely difficult to access the internet outside of North Korea. The sites they are visiting are likely either North Korean based sites or at the most, Chinese ones. Unfortunate, China’s internet is heavily censored and largely removed from the rest of the world.
2. North Korea employes jamming devices that make calling the outside world nearly (not nearly) impossible. They also routinely jamb radio broadcasts. Radios for sale inside North Korea are often set to receive only 1 or 2 stations by intent.
But who is Fidel Castro? We’re often told how lucky we are to live in a free country. I suppose we are, for if we lived in Cuba the very people saying this would kill us. I guess we should thank them?
There are plenty of historical cases where citizens rebelled while a dictator as still at the height of his authority and ruthlessness. The most recent case of this is Libya. Regardless if the resistance would have been successful or not on it’s own, it did occur.
What most foreigners don’t understand is North Korea is a Stalinist totalitarian collectivist state. Confucianism has been hijacked as a means to pacify the population. They are trained from day one to believe that their dead leader is a God and his son must rule the nation. All but a few elites cannot travel to other countries and outside news is blocked. Education is strictly controlled. This is a hermit people who know nothing else.
That only works so long as the dictator is ABLE to back up his threats. If the economy is in shambles to the point that even the military doesn’t have enough to eat, there will be a revolution, and no matter how ruthless the dictator might be, he won’t have the firepower needed to stop it.
If Kim Jong (mentally)-il were to mass troops on the DMZ in preparation for an invasion, we have a bomb that is detonated at a high altitude above the ground and drops titanium darts, one per square yard over a square mile area. The darts are supersonic when they hit the ground and will penatrate anything man made on the ground such as tanks, artillary, etc, disabling them not to mention killing all human life. If one dart per sq yd in not enough, explode two bombs. Bring it on Kim.
I ran the numbers. It would take just under 3.1 million of those darts to cover a square mile at a density of 1 per square yard. That’s a mighty big bomb! Please provide a link for verification.
OTOH, a properly detonated fuel-air explosive device can cause death & destruction comparable to a tactical nuke, but without the radiation. If I had to choose, I’d take the FAE.
China will never give up its favorite puppet regime. They will keep it tottering beyon d our lifetimes. They will not let Russia dominate North Korea. They may, someday, use the North Korean army to attack South Korea also. Not to win, but to destroy it as a competitor.