Will North Korea Collapse? (Part Two)
North Korea’s Dear Leader Kim Jong-il is dead at the age of sixty-nine. The spin by the North Korean media is that he died of a heart attack caused by overwork: “He worked day and night for socialist construction and happiness of people, for the union of country and modernisations. He left us so suddenly.”
Here is a video from the North Korean media of assembled denizens of Pyongyang, some in tight military-like formations, lamenting his death. Residence in that city, the capital, is carefully limited to those deemed faithful to the regime. Luxuries unavailable elsewhere are provided there.
An e-mail alert sent by STRATFOR on December 19 states that Kim died on
the morning of Dec. 17, according to an official North Korean News broadcast at noon Dec. 19. Initial reports say Kim died of a heart attack brought on by fatigue while on board a train. Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008, and his health has been in question since.
He may have died shortly before the 17; official reports from the North are not usually very candid. In any event, the apparent two-day delay in the official death announcement — from the morning of December 17 until noon on December 19 — may be significant. If for nothing else, time was needed to ensure stability. Now, the country has essentially shut down:
Following the official announcement of Kim Jong Il’s death today, North Korea has imposed rigid social controls, including the complete closure of markets.
An inside source told Daily NK this lunchtime, “The jangmadang is closed and people are not allowed to go outside. Local Party secretaries are issuing special commands through local Union of Democratic Women unit chairwomen, and the chairwomen have been gathered at district offices for emergency meetings.”
According to the source, National Security Agency and People’s Safety Ministry agents have been deployed in streets and alleyways to control civilian movements. There have not been any signs of public unrest to date.
Kim Jong Il’s sudden death has apparently caught people off-guard, the source revealed, commenting, “Nobody had the slightest idea about the General’s death even right before they saw the broadcast. You can hear the sound of wailing outside.”
North Korea has also “urged an increase in its ‘military capability’ as the death of North Korea’s enigmatic leader Kim Jong Il spurred fresh security concerns in the tense region.” On the same days as Kim’s death was announced, North Korea test-fired two short-range missiles off its eastern coast. There has been little additional information from the provinces as to what else may be happening there in response to Kim’s death.
In South Korea,
President Lee Myung-bak canceled the rest of his Monday schedule and put all members of South Korea’s military on “emergency alert,” his office said. The two nations never signed a peace treaty following the Korean War of the early 1950s, leaving the two nations technically at war.
After an emergency Cabinet meeting Monday, Lee asked South Koreans “to go about their lives.”
“For the sake of the future of the Republic of Korea, peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is more important than anything else. It should not be threatened by what has happened,” he said.
“Brilliant Young General,” who has no military experience, is now referred to in the North Korean media as the “Great Successor.” Reminds me of the media description of Obama. Only our media isn’t supposed to be a state sponsored propaganda machine!
“240,000 tons of food supplies in twelve monthly shipments of twenty tons each.
You probably meant to say twelve monthly shipments of 20,000 tons each. 20 tons is the capacity of a single semi-truck. Your neighborhood Costco probably runs though more that 20 tons each day.
Ya got me! I must have studied arithmetic under Democrats.
This math error might be more portent than the news at hand. Math and science education in the USA continues to decline irrespective of which party controls the government. “No Child Left Behind” has been effectively a major assault on the quality of education. Demands to have better results on bubble tests will not bring a change in competency. My point is that while all eyes are on politics, the foundation is crumbling. Conservative ideas would turn this around but neither party seems to use them.
I think it’s been fixed.
I’m not sure why we are negotiating to give them food for action they have no intention of following through on. Let them starve or let China (who has the most to lose in NK instability). What a bunch of chumps we are. Let them find their own food or starve. The people will overthrow the government themselves. And if China and Russia are so concerned, let them send food instead of us borrowing money from China to send it to the NOKOs.
“Will N. Korea collapse?”. How could you tell? A collapse might be considered an upgrade.
Will N Korea collapse? Yes. My prediction is that N’ Korea will be like E. Germany. South Korea, a strong, sensible economy, will make integrate the North within 10 years.
Maybe not. The economic costs of reunification would be far greater than they were for West Germany upon reunification with the East. The division between North and South Korea has lasted longer and the mood among the young people of South Korea seems to be shifting away from reunification. The pull of reunification remains strong, but is weakening.
Venezuela, another highly regarded bastion of freedom and democracy, has expressed “sincere sorrow” about the untimely death of the Dear Leader.
When el Thugo passes to his own communistic reward, will the Great Successor to Kim Jong-il express similar condolences?
N Korea has been collapsed for 50 yrs
It is a failed state with 60 nuclear weapons
A country that is now in the hands of an inexperienced, near adolescent, who loves basketball…being ushered into a job he can’t handle, to perform socialist maneuvers on behalf of someone behind the scenes pulling the strings…and the question, Dan…is will that country collapse?
If the people let it…it will.
I’m confused, are you referring to the US or North Korea?
yes
Where the food and water have been used as means to control and empire are called Water Empires in the history books. They aren’t dynamic enough to fall by themselves but they get weaker and weaker and eventually even a small military force can push them over.
If China or South Korea wanted to either could push North Korea over. By the time North Korea is twice its current age a Chinese tong from Macau will be able to push them over and take over. Somebody needs to do it before North Korea drops to Organized Crime Haven.
Anyone who has gotten beyond the superficial level in understanding North Korea knows that they have a great deal of well-protected artillery along the border with South Korea. That artillery can easily reach Seoul, which is very close to the border. Whoever wants to overthrow the North Korean regime has to weigh that very carefully indeed or there will be tens of thousands of dead people in Seoul.
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The Coming War With China, Part Two
As antithetical as it is to the Christmas spirit of peace on Earth and good will toward all men, the unfortunate reality is that the grossly cynical view of peace as merely a temporary interruption of war is as true today as it ever was.
As Americans finish up their Christmas shopping and read encouraging, heart-warming stories of troops returning home following the “end” of the Iraqi War, more realistic observers are aware the conflict is far from over and that many of those same soldiers will soon be re-engaging in that and other wars.
Even more ominous in our unstable world are the activities of America’s primary trading partner, lender of hundreds of billions to our treasury, and our unacknowledged adversary, the Peoples Republic of China, the PRC.
Almost two years ago, I posted an opinion piece, “The Coming War With China,” which offered the unoriginal theory that the inscrutable Chinese were preparing for an inevitable clash with the only power that stands in the way of their world dominance, the United States.
Russia continues to make noises and threats asserting its pretensions but, despite Putin’s blustering and new missile development, the time of the Russian Bear passed with the passing of the U.S.S.R. and the best hope the new Russia now has is a military alliance with the PRC when the appropriate time comes for alliances.
And it will.
For years, most military analysts felt China did not pose a realistic threat to America and little chance to re-claim what it considers Chinese territory in Taiwan because of a weak, under-equipped navy, particularly a dearth of aircraft carriers.
That assessment has been changing as rapidly as China’s economic boom has boomed and was recently updated after a commercial American satellite–not the CIA–discovered a Chinese aircraft carrier under way in the Yellow Sea. Almost as secretive as its ally, North Korea, China originally contended the Varyag, purchased from Ukraine ten years ago, would be converted into a floating casino.
Something changed and now the PRC is saying the Varyag ”is intended for research and training, which has led to speculation that it plans to build future copies,” according to a Huffington Post report.
Attempting to save face in the wake of the private satellite photo, our Defense Department expressed no surprise amd suggested the carrier wouldn’t be fully operational for years.
One re-furbished Soviet carrier does not an attack force make . . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=11496.)
Will North Korea collapse?
North Korea is always collapsing. The question should be “when will North Korea stop collapsing?”