Will NATO Abandon Ukraine Too?
Voice of America’s Peter Fedynsky writes that Ukraine had been expressing solidarity with Georgia long before the Russian tanks rolled in, and Russia’s actions are causing Ukrainians who previously worried about provoking Russia by jointing NATO to reconsider their position just as the Poles have done. He quotes Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, long one of the boldest Russian-language critics of the Putin regime, who “cautions that Ukraine could be Russia’s next target as part of what he says is a grand Kremlin plan for the partial restoration of Russian greatness.” Felgenhauer states: “Russia right now wants at least half of Ukraine to be annexed. Vladimir Putin talked about that rather openly at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania in April. Ukraine will disintegrate into two halves, and we want the eastern half, including of course, first and foremost, Crimea.”
Fedynsky adds: “Felgenhauer says Ukraine’s overwhelming vote for independence in 1991, which included a majority of Crimeans, means nothing to Kremlin rulers, who the analyst says do not respect the will of even their own people.” He points out that Russia’s Georgia adventure ties it down militarily, and gives the West a window of opportunity to move forward with NATO admission while minimizing the risk of any Russian response. Moreover, of course, no more compelling argument could be made to those in Ukraine who have sympathy for Russia than to see Russian tanks on the move.
There are many other steps that NATO can take to defend its interests from Russian encroachment. Its members can — and should — boot Russia out of the G-8, block its entry into the WTO, boycott the Sochi Olympics, and massively increase funding to organizations like Voice of America that give Russians some hope of actually finding out what is really going on in the outside world. Poland has already taken the bold action of joining the U.S. missile defense plan for Eastern Europe, clearly showing that it cannot be intimidated by Russian threats in Georgia and indeed is motivated by them to move even closer to the West. (Prior to the Georgia attack, Poland had been expressing misgivings about the plan.) Ukraine understands its peril just as clearly. All these measures will make the KGB spies who govern Russia think twice before they assert military power towards the West.
But Ukraine is first and foremost. NATO must draw a line in the sand around Ukraine and understand that its failure to act decisively on Georgia when it had the chance may well have cost that nation its freedom. Even if Russia does not annex the whole country now, what is to prevent it from continuing to bait the nation’s leadership from its new positions in Ossetia and Abkhazia, provoke a new incident, and move on Tbilisi? Based on NATO’s response so far, why should it not believe it is free to do so?
Ukrainians have already shown their mettle. They’ve offered the use of a Soviet-built satellite facility as part of the missile defense system for Eastern Europe, infuriating Russia in the wake of its barbaric attack on a major civilian railway line for the purpose of crippling Georgia’s infrastructure just hours before Russia signed a cease fire agreement. It’s a clear sign that they are ready to join the fight against Russian imperialism, and we must respond in kind.
The USSR was bankrupted and destroyed by being forced into an arms race by Ronald Reagan, and it toppled and fell without firing a shot. Russia’s economic base is far flimsier than the Soviet Union’s ever was, and its allies are far fewer. It is not only morally proper to reach out to Ukraine now, it is a strategic imperative.
Many of us in the West would be willing to trade Russia’s cooperation with Iran and Syria for a free hand in the “near abroad.” My guess is that were we to give Russia a free hand in the “near abroad,” that Russia would still be assisting Iran and Syria.
Kick the useless out of NATO. Any country that sends troops out to Afganistan with instructions to not engage the enemy is useless.
Eastern Europe knows the what having the boot of tyranny on your neck is. If they are willing to fight against it, the are real allies. To hell with the western eurotrash.
If Ukraine is depending on Europe for help, I hope all they need is hot air. NATO members outside of the US don’t even have real militaries anymore, not capable of projecting power outside of their borders. They suckled on the tit of the US for so long, their social services consumed the money for military capacity. NATO has been reduced to a grass skirt covering US military power, providing the cover of “coalition” that fools no one.
If any entity exists that CAN help the Ukraine, and WANTS to, I don’t see it. Bush playing party president at the olympics while Putin oversaw the Georgia operation provided a clear indication of what would happen if Ukraine was attacked: hot air, bloviation, useless sentiment and empty gestures. Putin is smart and ruthless enough to sense a timid opponent and go for the throat without apology.
W Europe has lost all desire to be free. They are unable to defend themselves on the political or military front. They depend on the US for their muscle, and can’t we all just get along for their morals.
The sad part is the US depends on their political support. The US needs to realign itself or at least re-evaluate who we have aligned ourselves .
To bad our leaders are to occupied with getting theirs, instead of doing what they were elected to do.
ROME all over again.
The best place to defend the Ukraine was Georgia.
A robust air campaign there would have forced the Russians out by cutting their logistics.
They still there 14 days and counting.
I don’t know what these contributors are smoking in their bongs but it’s certainly strong hallucinatory stuff!
In the immediate aftermath of WW2 the Americans and their British allies did what they could to undermine Soviet rule in the three Baltic states and local Communist rule in Albania [dig out Kim Philby's autobiography for a mention of his role in thwarting the restoration of King Zog] but those efforts came to nothing.
They came to worse than nothing, actually; they led to much unnecessary suffering for tens or hundreds of thousands. Ditto the C.I.A. aid to the Tibetans in the 1950s [dig out the Dalai Lama's autobiography for a fleeting reference to this tragic episode.]
Abkhazia and Ossetia are not natural constituent parts of Georgia and it is in Georgia’s own interest to let both go and, having let go, to become a disarmed and prosperous Costa Rica / Finland / Switzerland of the Caucasus rather than being an embarrassing and awkward Eastern flank of NATO.
I think the real question the Ukranians are concerned with is ‘Will the USA abandon us?’.
NATO has proven itself rather feckless. There are simply too many freeloader members involved for it to be taken it seriously.
The good thing would be for Kim to advise Cuba to demand the USA fleet in Guantanamo to report to the Cuban government and ask for permission before leaving the harbor. Also to give them 72 hours note about where the USA ships are going to sail, what weapons and crews they have. It would be same reasonable like Ukraine’s Yushchenko demand.
For now, Russians are just showing Yushchenko a middle finger.
RB, there IS no U.S.Fleet at Git-mo.
Another useless Russian analogy. You guys are getting pretty desperate.
Shall we carry that analogy out a bit? Cuba has ben hostile to America for 50 years now and the USA has NEVER invaded it. So a good analogy would be Russia going 50 years without invading Cuba. I would be surprise if it’s more then 50 weeks until Russia invades the Ukraine. 50 DAYS might be within reason.
They still there? 14 days and counting.
And, once again, the dizinformatzion-cheks show up, to defend their beloved, rabid, Russian bear!
“bkhazia and Ossetia are not natural constituent parts of Georgia.”
Ossetia has been part of Georgia since the 6th century. It’s not clear when the Ossetians moved in; they originated much farther to the east even according to their own traditions, but what is important is that most Ossetians retained UUSR citizenship which became Russian citizenship, and thus became aliens in Ossetia and thus Georgia. They voted to secede from Georgia, with less right than Virginia had to secede from the US.
The Abkhaz may or may not have been where they are forever. They are indigenous to the area, unlike the Ossetians, but people do move around. The land where they live has been part of various Georgian kingdoms and confederations on and off for about 3,000 years.
And Orion Strategies will rake in some $$$ lobbying for Kiev’s membership into NATO while other companies go for the arms contracts.
Kim, what if the eastern Ukrainians and people of the Crimea want to secede? Is it NATO’s job to keep them in the fold by force?
Incidentally, is KZ an Orion Strategies plant?
jim, so by your logic, albanians, who moved to kosovo mostly during 20th century, do not deserve independence either?
Buchanan is right. Scheunemann is a sellout.
“Kim, what if the eastern Ukrainians and people of the Crimea want to secede? Is it NATO’s job to keep them in the fold by force?”
What if Virginia and the Carolinasa and other parts of the country want to seced? What if parts of Texas and Arizona vote to secede and join Mexico?
“Is it NATO’s job to keep them in the fold by force?”
Why would it take force and why would it be up to NATO rather than the EU to take action? Is Russia so compleltey invulnerable to econmic and diplomatic pressure, so completely self-sufficient in food and medecine and a hundred other necessities that it can withstand external pressure?
“jim, so by your logic, albanians, who moved to kosovo mostly during 20th century, do not deserve independence either?”
That is a valid conclusion, and it applies in lots of other cases – Northern Ireland and the Prots is one obvious example – and I don’t agree with because it would entail a lot of monstrous expulsions. On the other hand in the case of countries with populations of Russians, they are going to have to start looking at the existence of these populations as a threat to their own existence as nations now.
Sometjhing like this, maybe not quite monstrous, occurred a few years ago when soem federal court finally settled a land dispute between the Hopi and the Navajo that had been building since the 1200′s basically the Hopi lived on islands of land surrounded by Navajo. The Hopi had been there forever and the Navajp drifted in and started raiding in the 1200′s. The solution was finally to buy out the Navajo in the contested area and tell them they had to move out. A woman I worked with took her pay-out and made the down payment on a house near Saettle. It was hard on people, but maybe because of the pay-out they didn’t feel absolutely disposessed, and then too they may have half-accepted the Hopis contention that the land had been theirs first.
The logical problem is that we have two principles in contradiction – the Westphalian principle of territorial integrity and the principle of determination of peoples. This is just one example of how ncherent the notion of nationalism is.
“Kim, what if the eastern Ukrainians and people of the Crimea want to secede? Is it NATO’s job to keep them in the fold by force?”
No, that is Georgia’s job. NATO’s job is to keep the Russians from using force to remove them from Georgia and add them to Russia.
What about Chechnya? The people there wanted to secede, was it Russia’s job to keep themin the fold by force?
A LEGAL point. Chechnya and S.Ossetia were included in their respective countries by TREATY. Kosovo WASN’T. Serbia wasn’t either. When Tito’s pocket empire broke up, there was NO legal division of the former Yugosolvia. The sepperate states just fought it out until they had borders, in the old fashioned way. Serbia and Kosovo was just an extension of that process. Chechnya and S. Ossetia were established by treaty when the Soviet Union fell apart. Without the (former)KGB stirring the pot, there is no reason to think that S. Ossetia and Georgia would not have come to an arrangement of some sort.
They still there? 14 days and counting.
Western Europe is dead man walking. Too weak to defend itself against a neurosyphilitic crack ho, much less a decrepit Russia. Eastern Europe on the other hand is freshly out of slavery from the communist bear. They will fight the slobbering Putin dictator if given assistance.
everyone must remember that more than half of ukranians are AGAINST joining nato.
i agree that eastern ukraine will secede if ukraine does join nato, but i highly doubt that ukraine will join nato in the first place due to the french/german/italian vetoes.
john Samford:
> “Kim, what if the eastern Ukrainians and people of the Crimea
> want to secede? Is it NATO’s job to keep them in the fold by force?”
> No, that is Georgia’s job.
in other words, you approve of genocide as long as it;s our clients georgians who will do it, right?
Sorry to disappoint you Poul but there was no Ossetian Genoside by georgians, check out new rusian numbers of dead ossetians – 144 people, the old numbers(1600) were never substatiated by any prove as we all know, very sad but hardly a genoside and while you at it take a look at reports of ethnic cleansing and other atrocities commited by ossetian crimnals as well as russian “peace Keepers” as part of “securing ” measures, even so called president of so called south ossetia himself admits, that they wanted to make sure Georgians “will Not come back”. There are 118 000 people displaced in Georgia today. So let’s all be obljective here, the world is not blind.
Ukraine does not want to join NATO. It is Yushchenko gang who want to join NATO. Current crisis will be defused when he will be booted from office (by another gang).
Actually, I do not think that Yushchenko is serious about joining NATO. He just flirting with US to get free stuff, and use NATO card to black mail Russia, to get discount on Russian gas and oil.
The good idea would be to make plebiscite if Ukrainians want to join NATO. It will clarify a lot of things.
The best model of Russian-Ukrainian relationship I see is like between US and Canada. Sooner or later it will be this way.
John Samford, You did not get my point. My irony was about the recent Ukrainian president Yushchenko’s order to the Russian Black Sea fleet (which is renting the naval base in Sevastopol) to report to the Ukrainian authorities and to get permit each time when the fleet is going to leave the base. To obtain the permit, the fleet command, not later than in 72 hours must submit information about the purpose of the leave, the route, the armament and the crew(s) on the board(s). Russians are renting the base based on the Russia-Ukraine treaty effective till 2017. The treaty does not have such limitations. So, if Ukrainian fleet is going to enforce this order, there can be a few Ukrainian ship sunk by Russians. You may blah-blah about “Russian agressors” if it happened, but would it be right? Imagine Guantanamo. It is a port and some USA ships are there or visit that place regularly. How would it look if Cubans issued same kind of orders for the USA Navy?
Relations between Cuba and the USA have not been that nice like you present them. And certainly, not because the USA is a proponent of the peaceful co-existence with Cuba. The USA attacked Cuba in 1962 and it took the USSR involvement with middle range missiles, and the Cuban Missile Crisis to stop the USA from further attempts. To the USA honor, they have been keeping their promise not to attack Cuba given to the Soviets in 1963.
Possible attack on Ukraine by Russians? Everything is possible. But if Ukrainian authorities abandon their unfriendly anti-Russian rhetorics, if they respect the rights of their Russian speaking citizens to get education and information on their language, if they do not go to the NATO, and do not allow NATO forces on their territory, if they do not steal the gas Russia is pumping to the West Europe through their pipes, and if they pay their bills for gas, I do not see why they may be attacked.
Kim says: It’s widely believed that Russia had a hand in poisoning Victor Yushchenko….
Interestingly, that strongly anti-Russian Yushchenko, who has been “trigger happy” about saying bad things about Russians is keeping silence. It seems like he does not believe in Kim’s version. Otherwise he would be screaming about “this disgusting Russian crime” at his every meeting with the press.
-Poisoning somebody by Russian spies, and the client still alive? You could not insult the Russian secret services worse than this, Kim.
here are many other steps that NATO can take to defend its interests from Russian encroachment…. (among them) massively increase funding to organizations like Voice of America that give Russians some hope of actually finding out what is really going on in the outside world.
Isn’t she stupid? Like there is still 60-70th outside. Like there is no Internet. Like hundreds of thousands of Russians are not traveling abroad every year. Like there is no opposition newspapers and radio stations in Russia.
Kim, you are pathetic. Do you think before you write your stupidities?
maka, what i meant is “to keep them in the fold by force” would require a genocide.
it didn’t happen yet – but not for the luck of trying by georgians. the attempt to ethnically cleanse ossetians most definitely happened, several times in last few decades. that’s the fact, if you indeed want to be objective.
Dont be fooled, Ukranians and the Poles will fight Russia to the death this time. THEY know all about Russia.
Rick554:
You gotta know who “Ukrainians” are actually are. Two thirds of Ukrainians have Russian as first language. No less than 30% of Ukrainians are ethnic Russians. 90% of Ukrainians have close relatives in Russia. Most of Ukrainian economy is tied to Russia. 90% of oil and 70% of gas is coming from Russia. 70% of Russian Gasprom workforce and most of board of directors of Gasprom are Ukrainians.
Ukrainians fighting Russian invasion is same fiction as Ohayo invading upstate New York.
Ukraine joining NATO and Russia invading Ukraine are fairy tales to milk dry you American retards for free stuff for Yuschenko gang.
If Texas and New Mexico declared their independence from the USA, and then signed a military alliance with China and Iran would the US be very happy or sympathetic toward those states? I rather doubt it.
Much the same is going on in Russia. The Tsars spent 500 years building that empire and the Communists let the whole thing fly apart. What is going on now is an attempt to reclaim what they lost. The US would do no different if placed in the same position as Russia.
It is time for some realpoltick and a reexamination of our strategic interests.
von Rum
Once again, Eastern Europe is stuck between east and west. History proves French and German hordes, Turk, Arab, Russian hordes from south and West. Even the Swedes came through town at one time.
I think that at this moment, after centuries, the Eastern European people should be respected enough by the West to make their own decisions, choose their own allies, and their own economic vendors and buyers.
Ukraine? Well, they have the same screwed up mentality as the Russians. The Russians will never leave Crimea. Ukraine is already Russian.
The line should be drawn from Poland, CR, Slovak, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria.
“If Texas and New Mexico declared their independence from the USA, and then signed a military alliance with China and Iran would the US be very happy or sympathetic toward those states? I rather doubt it.”
Comparing the cultures in America to those in Russia is folly. There is no rational comparison here. Furthermore, this would only make remote sense if the USA had fallen apart like the USSR did.
“reclaim what they lost”……So, Russia has the right of reclamation from the last 500 years? gheesh……
“So, Russia has the right of reclamation from the last 500 years? gheesh……:
Not what I said. I said they had built up this territorial control over that time period. It only fell apart with the (thankful) demise of the Soviet Union. It is however folly to think that the Russians would just shrug and say ohh well, we lost them, thats that!
We would not do it, and they are not going to do it. That being said, all of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Ukraine are not worth the bones of a single US Marine.
von Rum
Washington can help Ukraine and is helping thru providing important intelligence
on Yushenko poisoning
on Tymoshenko involvement in poisoning and other KGB plots, including her sabotage of 2 important OIL projects:
1.Baku-Odessa-Brody, 2.Drilling by Americans on Crimea shelf
Yushenko is under a big threat now. Medvedev invited him for a visit on Sep.6 and we are 100% sure it will be an attempt to kill Yushenko
ukraine is extensovely infiltrated with KGB from top(parliment, government) to bottom( pro-kremlin militant provocators)
Mass Media is effectively under kremlin KGB control in Ukraine
Situation is very bad.
Russian plan to occupy Ukraine will be executed as a siege of Kyiv from the Belarus and Russia border(200miles fro Kyiv),
And from south, from Odessa where marines could land,to Vinnitsa.
In this way kremlin will cut Ukraine in parts,
Siege of Kyiv in the north will serve strategicaly
in the same way as South Osetia in Georgia: cutting territory, isolating Ukrainian troops in the east
details
Kremlin forces will take the Stalin line: an old defence nad natural structures used in WW2
Pridnistrovie, where kremlin regiment is positioned since 1990s and where kremlin had recently stored ENORMOUS amounts of weons-
will serve as a blockade to cut Ukraine from the West and western help
————————–
USA can help Ukraine to design strategy, may be try to deliver arms, but very secretly.
Ukraine has to position their forces in key areas and start fortifying important parts of its defense line
May be Polish forces can come into Ukraine say for military exercise and be positioned accordingly to threats
USA has a certain political procedures in our governing bodies that has to be undertaking before any foreign military involvement may take place
Also USA can not effectively stretch its army forces all over the globe. If we sent serious enforcement to Ukraine- kremlin most likely will destroy Tbilisi by SS21 with 10 kiloton warheads, yeah, same way they ruined GROZNY not long ago
If kremlin uses SS21 on Tbilisi- their goal will be to kill several hundreds of thousands of Georgians to paralyze any resistance in Georgia and paralize future resistance in Ukraine by fear
details
RE: If we sent serious enforcement to Ukraine- kremlin most likely will destroy Tbilisi by SS21 with 10 kiloton warheads
Why Tbilisi!? It would not be fair! What Tbilisi has to do with American enforcement to Ukraine?! We would destroy New York and Washington DC by a few SS-27 with 10 megaton, same way like we destroyed Grozny.
A joke from the Soviet time:
The Armenian Radio* is asked:
-Which city in the world is the most beautiful?
The Radio answers: Sure that is Yerevan.
The next question goes:
-And how many atomic bombs are needed to destroy the city?
Armenian Radio thinks and responds:
-Tbilisi is a beautiful city too.**
* – there was a series of jokes about the Armenian Radio
**- Georgians and Armenians do not get along quite well.
TomJW,
good thinking, glad our leaders, as inept as they may seem at times, have more acumen than you.
Bill Corr,
Those breakaway areas are a large chunk of Georgia and not on their fringe either.
Russian Bear:
We would destroy New York and Washington DC by a few SS-27 with 10 megaton, same way like we destroyed Grozny.
Зїсти то воно з’їсть ,
АЛЕ ХТО Ж ЙОМУ ДАСТЬ)))))))))))))))))
Jim:
Ossetia has been part of Georgia since the 6th century. …… They voted to secede from Georgia, with less right than Virginia had to secede from the US.
neoneo:
Aug. 2008 brought the third wave of Georgian genozide against S. Ossetia, first being in 1919-1921, second in 1990th :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia
Suckashvilli already talks about rearming Georgian army and starting the 4th wave. What would you expect? Russian will protect S. Ossetian just as they protected Armenian and Kazahs in the distant past.
Herr Zigfeld:
Last week, Ukraine demanded that Russia give 72 hours notice before activating war ships at its naval base in Crimea, on Ukrainian territory (similar to the U.S. base in Guantanamo, Cuba). Russia said it would simply ignore the demand.
neoneo:
Should Raul Castro demand that American send him notification any time they make a serious use of their military base in Cuba?
PS:
) Your unability to apply to yourself the standards you set for the others shows that you have serious problems with your moral compas. It is also obvious that you are mentally unstable.
Herr Zigfeld, you are a fascist maniac (I use “intellectusl” vocabulary of your previous article
the idiocy of this discussion is just staggering.
ukraine geographically is mostly plains, which is ideally suited for russian strategy of strike with tens of thousands of tanks. the eastern part of ukraine, closer to russia, is populated mostly by ethnic russians or russian-speaking ukranians, many of them quite pissed by enforcement of mandatory use of ukranian language, and envious of higher living standards at the russian side of the border. ukrainians don’t have even half of military and technological expertise that russians do. russians have absolute air superiority over and around their territory, and nothing that nato can throw at them could even temporarily shake it.
in other words, if russia decides to take ukraine, nothing can be done militarily to stop them, short of nuclear war.
I remember the “Newsweek” magazine front cover somewhen in the beginning of 1991. The USSR was still alive and Yugoslavia too. Some smart journalist wrote an article about how the map of Europe would look in 10 years, which would be in 2001. And that map was placed on the cover. It showed exactly the way how Yugoslavia split, but for the USSR it appeared to be not that right. He showed independent Baltic states, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Western Ukraine. But the Eastern Ukraine, including Crimean peninsula was left in the same state with Russians. That was reasonable prognosis, based on the ethnic borders and preferences. Why did it come out different?
When Russian president Yeltsin, Kravchuk from the Ukraine and Belorussian leader Shushkevich, secretly from Gorbachev met in December 1991 to abolish the Soviet Union, the mischievous, sneaky Ukrainian leader Kravchuk kept pouring vodka in the Yeltsin’s glass till that alcoholic got hammered and signed up the agreement which yielded the Russian-populated areas under the administration of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic i.e. Donbass and Crimea to the new independent Ukraine. It was drunk Yeltsin’s mistake. He loved vodka too much. He could sell his mother for vodka. And Ukrainian president Yushchenko knows that it was not fair. But it is hard to get anything from Ukrainians. They had reputation of the greediest nation among the others in the USSR. All this “entering NATO” campaign is the way how Yushchenko wants to keep those territories.
Russian Bear- is a disinformation officer and should be ignored
—————————–
“All my professional career i was trained and prepared for the only one event:
a surprise nuclear attack on the United States”
colonel Lunev
no doubt that killers in kremlin united with beijing are waiting for the right moment
so USA defense strategy should be geared exactly to this evennt
which will take place under the condition of deep economic and political crisis in USA so much promised by Medvedev recently
with the coming elections and possible war in ME, Venezuelan oil sabotage and Persian Gulf trouble
it must be expected that gray terror phase will intensified
we already had threat letters with powder sent to McCain and his possible running mate
We should expect serious terror attacks and more attacks on USA economy: again oil price inflation thru the same methods as in the last year: they tested the strategy, it worked, now they cashed out the position and will do it again and harder
Look, you ain’t gonna take my son and send him off to fight in Georgia or the Ukraine. Let the Neo-cons who seem to want to fight every war as long as it is someone else’s kids fighting – let them send their own kids.
GuyInCT
`they` will kill him here with plaque or anthrax and you and at least 100 million more americans
because ignorant people earned it
and you are ignorant because you never cared when communists were killing people by 100s millions
and you are ignorant that kremlin has 20 times TWENTY TIMES moer nukes then USA
and Kremlin has 100s of thousands of tons of biological weapons
and USA has NONE
and you will die because you are ignorant and you earned it
Buy buy GuyInCT:
you are already dead
KREMLIN NUCLEAR WEAPONS versus USA NUCLEAR WEAPONS
KREMLIN
Russia possesses the largest stockpile of weapons of mass destruction in the world. Russia declared an arsenal of 40,000 tons of chemical weapons in 1997 and is said to have had around 6681 nuclear weapons stockpiled in 2005, making its stockpile the largest in the world. The Soviet Union ratified the Geneva Protocol on January 22, 1975 with reservations. The reservations were later dropped on January 18, 2001.
Nuclear arsenal of Russia
Russia was estimated to have around 6681 active strategic nuclear warheads in its arsenal.[1] Russia also has a large but unknown number of tactical nuclear weapons [1]. Strategic nuclear forces of Russia include:[1]
1. Land based Strategic Rocket Forces: 489 missiles carrying up to 1,788 warheads; they employ immobile (silos), like SS-18 Satan, and mobile delivery systems, like SS-27 Topol M.
2. Sea based Strategic Fleet: 12 submarines carrying up to 609 warheads; they employ delivery systems like SS-N-30 Bulava.
3. Strategic Aviation: 237 bombers(16 Tu-160,63 Tu-95,and 158 Tu-22m) carrying up to 884 Cruise missiles.
Doctrine of limited nuclear war
According to a Russian military doctrine stated in 2003, tactical nuclear weapons (Strategic Deterrence Forces) could be used to “prevent political pressure against Russia and her allies (Armenia, Belarus, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan).”
Thus, the Russian leadership “is officially contemplating a limited nuclear war”.
After the Korean War,
Soviet Union transferred nuclear technology and weapons to the People’s Republic of China as an adversary of the United States and NATO According to Ion Mihai Pacepa, “Khrushchev’s nuclear-proliferation process started with Communist China in April 1955, when the new ruler in the Kremlin consented to supply Beijing a sample atomic bomb and to help with its mass production. Subsequently, the Soviet Union built all the essentials of China’s new military nuclear industry.”[3]
Russia is one of the five “Nuclear Weapons States” (NWS) under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Russia ratified (as the Soviet Union) in 1968.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, a number of Soviet-era nuclear warheads remained on the territories of Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Under the terms of the Lisbon Protocol to the NPT, and following the 1995 Trilateral Agreement between Russia, Belarus, and the USA, these were transferred to Russia, leaving Russia as the sole inheritor of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. It is estimated that the USSR had approximately 39,000 nuclear weapons stockpiled at the time of its collapse.
The collapse of the Soviet Union allowed for a warming of relations with NATO. Fears of a Nuclear holocaust lessened. Recently, however, a new threat has gained attention, both in politics and in popular culture: Nuclear terrorism. Movies such as The Peacemaker and True Lies depict terrorist organizations obtaining nuclear weapons from Post-Soviet states and smuggling them into the US. In September of 1997, the former secretary of the Russian Security Council Alexander Lebed claimed 100 “suitcase sized” nuclear weapons were unaccounted for. He said he was attempting to inventory the weapons when he was fired by President Boris Yeltsin in October 1996.[4] In 2005, Sergey Sinchenko, a legislator from the Bloc of Yulia Timoshenko (a Ukrainian reformist party) said 250 nuclear weapons were unaccounted for. When comparing documents of nuclear weapons transferred from Ukraine to weapons received by Russia, there was a 250 weapon discrepancy.[5] Indeed, several US politicians have expressed worries and promised legislation addressing the threat.[6]
In 2002, the United States and Russia agreed to reduce their stockpiles to not more than 2200 warheads each in the SORT treaty. In 2003, the US rejected Russian proposals to further reduce both nation’s nuclear stockpiles to 1500 each. Many say that this refusal was a sign of US aggression and accuse the US of thus leaving the danger of US and Russia’s mutual destruction.[citation needed] Russia is actively producing and developing new nuclear weapons. Since 1997 it manufactures Topol-M (SS-27) ICBMs.
Russia refused to discuss reduction of tactical nuclear weapons[2] and allegedly transferred nuclear technology to North Korea.[7
USA
The United States is one of the five recognized nuclear powers under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ("NPT"). It maintains a current arsenal of around 9,960 intact warheads, of which 5,735 are considered active or operational, and of these only a certain number are deployed at any given time. These break down into 5,021 "strategic" warheads, 1,050 of which are deployed on land-based missile systems (all on Minuteman ICBMs), 1,955 on bombers (B-52, B-1B, and B-2), and 2,016 on submarines (Ohio class), according to a 2006 report by the Natural Resources Defense Council.[14] Of 500 “tactical” “nonstrategic” weapons, around 100 are Tomahawk cruise missiles and 400 are B61 bombs. A few hundred of the B61 bombs are located at seven bases in six European NATO countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Kingdom), the only such weapons in forward deployment.[15][16]
Around 4,225 warheads have been removed from deployment but have remained stockpiled as a “responsible reserve force” on inactive status.
Poor kabud! How can you live with all that stuff in your head?
Life is scary, isn’t it?
Russian Bear is certainly aptly self-named. If you look up the word imperialism, you’ll see a picture of him.
It’s absolutely hilarious to hear his remarks about Ukraine’s greed.
This coming from the biggest, greediest animal on the whole continent of Europe.
As for NATO, there is not enough belief that sufficient support would be adequate. But public support for NATO has changed in Ukraine since the idea was first proposed.
It would be interesting to see how that stands now. Despite the Russification efforts, Ukraine will stand up and fight.
Having been there during the Orange Revolution, I have no doubts about that.
RW:
you have more wishful thinking then is healthy
read my first comment up there, it is realistic assessment of the situation
NATO never conducted ANY military operation of sufficient significance
KREMLIN goal now with the war in Georgia and threats to Ukraine and Moldova is:
to scare Europe, push USA out of Europe, finish with NATO by dividing it by fear, —->
then Europe will be totally unprotected because there are less then 100 nuclear warheads in Europe and up to 40000 in Russia
USA is the only military protector for Europe
Kremlin pushes for NE DEFENCE STRUCTURE in Europe where KREMLIN WILL DOMINATE
Next step will be surprise attack on USA
Notes on Grand Strategy
By J.R. Nyquist 12.18.01
Recently a German reader and researcher wrote to ask me about Russia’s threat to Europe. At the risk of boring American readers who may not know where Europe is, I will offer some observations that may be useful for understanding the overall significance of the Russia-China alliance.
Europe is the main prize that Russia hopes to win in the event of a future world war. That being said, Russian strategy fluxuates as conditions change. One also has to keep in mind that there are two different schools of strategic thought at work in the Kremlin since the late 1950s. These I will describe in general outline.
From a careful review of Russian defector testimony and Soviet military literature, it appears that a dialectical approach was developed by Soviet planners after the advent of the Brezhnev Committee (which met from 1956-57). This is the committee which brought KGB Gen. Dmitri Mironov together with Marshal V. Sokolovskiy in an effort to integrate nuclear war concepts with advanced disinformation and subversion concepts.
In the history of strategic theory we find two dialectically opposed ideas of war. First, we have the Chinese theorist Sun Tzu, who said excellence in war consists in “winning without fighting,” and we have Carl von Clausewitz who emphasized that winning without fighting is a dangerous concept because it leaves one unready for the bloody confrontation. When Soviet strategic theory was revised in 1956-57, Mironov represented the Sun Tzu theory and Sokolovskiy represented the Clausewitz theory. Looking at defector testimony and Soviet strategic literature the two theories were joined in a dialectical forward march — a competitive interaction with one side of the dialectic advancing the agenda of the other.
How does this dialectic work?
In a conversation I had with former GRU Col. Stanislav Lunev in 1998, I was given an ultra-simplified version of the 1980s Soviet war plan against NATO. According to Lunev the First Strategic Echelon of the Warsaw Pact would drive over NATO’s nuclear land mines and be destroyed. Then the Second Strategic Echelon would advance to exchange tactical nuclear blows with NATO forces. Then the Third Strategic Echelon would overrun Europe. This is a simplistic version of something incredibly complex, but readers will get the overall picture of blood, fire and horror that it presents.
How does this bloody Clausewitzian plan dialectically advance the cause of winning without fighting?
The very existence of this plan and the psychological pressure it exerted on Europe resulted in a Russian peace offensive under Gorbachev that effectively disarmed and denuclearized Europe in a remarkable way, so that Russian strategists are near to their goal of bypassing Europe entirely in any future war with America. In fact, the European press is reporting that France’s military forces — Western Europe’s main continental nuclear power — are in total disarray after a decade of budget cuts and mismanagement. A confidential French Ministry of Defense report states that France’s armed forces are incapable of defending the country. A third of the country’s tanks are unusable and half the helicopters are grounded. It is all due, of course, to Russia’s strategy of pulling back from its previously threatening position in Central Europe.
France is not the only European country with a backward and useless military machine. Russia’s efforts to pacify Europe have worked like a charm. Only a few largely political obstacles remain for Moscow in Europe, and although these are proving to be quite painful to remove, future tricks are sure to take Europe out of America’s benevolent orbit. When that happens Russia will be free to unite with China and North Korea against America in the Pacific.
It is only obvious, as things stand today, that any future war pitting Russia against America will involve a Russian-Chinese cross-Pacific attack on American interests. The advantage for Russia would be in keeping Europe out of such a war, safe and neutral for later use.
It has to be understood that Russia’s sophisticated combination strategy aims at America’s defeat, not at Europe’s destruction. Why fight 19 countries for world dominion when you only have to fight one country — the USA?
There is great danger, however, in Moscow’s extreme reliance on deception and disinformation. Even now people (like journalist Gordon Thomas) are beginning to trace the lines between Beijing and bin Laden. They can also trace the lines that connect Beijing and Moscow. Given the fact that people will eventually see through Russia’s schemes, Europe cannot be a reliable partner for Russia. Even if Europe one day moves away from America toward Russia the mistake will soon be realized and regretted.
In a certain sense every deceiver puts himself in the Devil’s chair, and this is what Russia has done. However successful you are in tricking the whole world, one day you must act contrary to everyone’s expections. When that happens Europe will realize that communism’s collapse was a brilliant organizational contrivance, involving great failures but also significant successes upon which Moscow built a new and better strategic position for itself. Already this realization begins to make its appearance in Washington D.C. It even appears in the work of columnists like William Safire who suddenly dub themselves “Angletonians” (i.e., people who see through Russia’s schemes).
There is also another difficulty which Russia must eventually face. Carl von Clausewitz was far deeper in his analysis than Sun Tzu. In my opinion the Russian objective is too ambitious, their maneuvers too elaborate and one day their moves will appear absolutely transparent. That’s when the next great war in Europe will break out.
I think we should look ahead to a period of crisis in the next several years. The enemies of America seem to be fishing for weaknesses. Well, they have so far come up empty-handed, though time will tell.
The key point here, I think, is for American strategists to Watch the Far East and for Europeans to stick by the Americans.
It would be nice to say that Putin is just a new Stalin waiting to expand back into the old Soviet shoes, but this denies exactly how much the US has invested in Central Asia and the South Caucasus over the last 10 years. It is US involvement (particularly in the natural gas industry) that has sparked the nationalist/jingoistic sentiment of Putin’s keepers. If they can’t make money off mineral rights in their own sphere, you better believe the Russian oligarchs will fight to control the flow of that energy from their sphere. There is far to little empathy for Putin’s actions. What would you do if a Starbucks opened up further down the same private drive you own a coffeshop on? You’d blockade the road back to it if you knew you could get away with it.
Laughable it is, listening to the world’s Shylocks cry foul over Russia’s historic 21st-century economic wealth and speedy global ascendancy. Hitch your panties, Kim, and admit to yourself that Russia didn’t resume her role as “the bear” this month, until after Georgian rockets mysteriously found their way into South Ossetia. Baby, you can fool the Levant, perhaps, but not the world.
kabud:
I’ve read your comments with great amusement. Does it really MATTER that Russia has 40,000 nukes and there is only 1,000 positioned in Europe? Do you not think that those 1,000 would destroy all of European Russia? Do you not think that a SINGLE US Navy Ohio class submarine laying undetected in ice off the north coast of Siberia couldn’t target Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and a dozen other Russian cities… if EVERY ONE of the 1,000 European missiles were destroyed pre-emptively? Come on! Why even compare numbers? What’s the point of such madness? The USA could destroy Russia with nukes. Russia could destroy the USA with nukes. No elected President of the USA would ever “push the button” first. As unstable as Kruschev was, he never took it to that level. Putin is emminently brighter… it’s just never going to happen. You just don’t get it: all of those former Soviet satellite republics reaching out to the USA and NATO have done so for a REASON – they’ve already lived (been subjected to) the Soviet/Russian way of life, and don’t WANT a return to that. If there is anything the USA has erred in understanding Russia and its recent stance on Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova, it is that Putin and Russia will seek to shore up its influence in those regions historically tied to Russia, those regions where ethnic Russians are a significant portion of the population or are of major strategic importance militarily and/or economically. Russia has already paid a terrible economic price for their unilateral military action across a sovereign country’s border, and as they have quickly discovered, reinstilling foreign investment faith in Russia may take years to achieve. Putin and Medvedev stating that Europe would be hurt more by imposing sanctions against Russia than Russia would be hurt by the (essentially) imposed isolation of them was not completely thought out… yes, the EU is quite reliant on Russian oil and natural gas, BUT, foreign investment (most importantly, the USA, which is NOT hostage to Russian oil) in Russia is EQUALLY critical to Russia’s rise as a global economic power. Personally, I have written hundreds of articles and columns espousing the wisdom of a USA – Russia partnership. The tone in the Kremlin today is: “its done” (the Georgian conflict), and “it’s back to business as usual. It’s SAFE to invest here… really! Please invest with us again!” … We all know the day is coming: the USS Ronald Reagan docked in Sevastopol at its new Black Sea berth… get hip dude! Now, you know I’m joking, but there are paranoid neo-Soviets in the Kremlin who wake up with that nightmare every day. Which do you think will happen sooner, that, or the Peter the Great docked at Guantanamo Bay, seriously?
Cuba has more than once been invaded by the US. Read a book. — Russia is the east edge of the West and has suffered invasion from Germany, the US, France, Britain. Read two books.
Hey kabud, where is your cup? Let me top off that kool-aid for ya!
Kabud, Thanks for showing some information in the periphery that has been largely overlooked. Gorby and Putzin have more in common than not. There is greed in the West to Invest, just like a suckers rally in the stock market. The smart money however won’t go there. What is slowing down the Kremlin plan is money going abroad. Savoks cannot be trusted. That is why LondonGrad exists with a bigger stock market than the US.
It would be like Educated Gentry trying to move into an American Black Slum like Newark, doing business with normal congeniality. The neighbors seeing your doing good, will harass and treat you with violence. Roosha is Number One in Heroin and alchohol. I know a Ukrainian man there that mowed his lawn, and the Russians burned down his house saying that he wanted too much by doing that.
Another theory to think about militarily, is that Conquest always favors the North over the South. If the North does not win outright, then it results in a long stalemate. Just the way it happens. Maybe we have to wait for depopulation and disease to wipe it out like the rest of the Mongolian Republics that returned to savagery
AL , ” two thirds of Ukrainians use russian as
their first language ” FALSE ; in spite of
centuries of draconian measures by the moscovites to suppress the Ukrainian language ,
it is still the primary language of at least
54% of the population and this percentage will
only increase as more and more children are
brought up and schooled in it. And then ” 30%
of Ukrainians are ethnic russians “. Have you
actualy tought about that one ? What you no
doubt meant is, that 30% of the POPULATION is
ethnic russians . Still , WRONG AGAIN , the
figure is closer to 17% ! This still high
percentage is due to the mass starvation ,
(Holodomor) , mass executions , deportations
and other killings the moscovites perpetrated
on the Ukreainian population , at the same time
bringing in hordes of hungry moscovites to take
their place. They and their descendants are now
the primary ” russian speakers ” and the fifth
column in Ukaine’s rebirth.
BILL S. , if you compare Ukrianian mentality to
russian , then you really are not someone that
I would engage in a discussion , however let me
just say that whereas Ukraine has always been a
democratic society , Moscovia does not even have
a concept of democracy . I should think that alone should be enough of an distinction between
us . By the way, Ukraines’s constitution , written by Hetman Pylip Orlyk , in 1712 , pre-
cedes the American by 64 years .
POUL , you must be a military genius ; ” eastern
Ukraine is mostly plains , idealy suited for
russian strategy to attack with tens of thousands of tanks “… Are you insane ? Tens
of thusands ?!!! Anyway are you aware that when
the great conquering moscovite army atacked
Georgia fully 30% of their tank force was side-
lined during the assault because of mechanical failure ? In any case , not to worry , they can’t afford the gas.
RICK554 , you are dead on , they know the
moscovites .
RW , I was there too and you are absolutely
right.
Here is the way it’s going to play out folks :
Moscovy is not going to attack anybody . All the posturing and saber rattling is for the
benefit of the Germans and the French and any
one else of the decrepid “Old Europe” crowd that
is so intent on not getting their fuel supply
interrupted . As though the moscovites could
afford to do it . They CANNOT !!! They need the
money !!! And all the RUSSIAN BEARS and the
like with all their dreams of imperializm will
have a rude awakening when the whole thing comes crashing down around their ears . No one
wants to be part of those loosers anymore .
China will take Siberia , the Islamic population
of the Caucasus and Central Asia will emerge
and in about twenty years Moscovia will be a
muslim province .