Will Israel Attack Iran? Don’t Hold Your Breath
How do you know someone has no idea what they’re talking about? They predict that Israel is about to attack Iran.
From the perspective of people in Israel who are closely following these issues, this idea is ridiculous. Understanding why this is so tells us a great deal about the situation.
First, it is too early to consider such an option in strategic terms. As long as Iran has not completed its effort to obtain nuclear weapons, the less there is to be gained by destroying uncompleted facilities or processes that are not yet at their full capacity. The earlier one attacks, the easier it is for the Iranian regime to rebuild.
Second, the whole Israeli strategy has been based on winning the maximum amount of Western support against the Iranian nuclear program. Israel worked hard to encourage the United States and the Europeans to put tough sanctions on Iran. Now we are in the sanctions’ era and these governments want to see whether the sanctions are going to have any effect.
Clearly, they are hurting the Iranian regime. People often don’t understand the purposes for imposing international sanctions. Ideally, the goal is to change the behavior of the targeted regime. But that’s not all. Sanctions are supposed to reduce the ability of an enemy regime to do what it wants to do. The fewer assets Iran has, the less it can put into military efforts.
In addition, the pressure of sanctions is to open up splits within the regime’s leadership and between the regime and the population. The people ask: Why are we suffering? Because of bad leadership and policies. Other members of the elite ask: Why are the top rulers and their policies leading us toward the regime’s downfall and the loss of our wealth and power?
This is happening to some extent in Iran today.
Moreover, sanctions are intended to isolate the regime, so that it loses allies and trading partners. This is happening to a lesser extent, because the U.S. government is in effect making a deal with Russia, China, Turkey, and Brazil to break the sanctions in exchange for giving them formal support.
You are most likely right that Israel will not attack now, because of the reasons you mention.
But someone somewhere does not understand human nature if this is supposed to be one of the reasons:
“If the decision of a lowly local zoning board in Jerusalem to build a few apartment buildings set off a huge storm in bilateral relations, what would an Israeli attack on Iran do?”
But few do, so you and the Israelis are forgiven.
I hope Israel does attack and soon. Waiting until Iran “has” the bomb or is “close” to having the bomb is a mistake. They (Iran) could be years ahead of what we know.
Sadly, I must agree with Prof. Rubin’s conclusion although I firmly believe that inaction is a mistake. More than a mistake, an incredible blunder.
I find it quite ironic to be writing this on Tisha B’Av of all days.
I believe that the logic, the reasoning behind a policy of inaction, is primarily rationalization, basically, excuses to do nothing except perhaps make a few useless speeches.
As Prof. Rubin points out, correctly, sanctions will not stop Iran. I would call them fraudulant. At best, they are a minor inconvenience. True, there is turmoil within Iran. But regimes like the Iranian regime will use any amount of force to stay in power. They are capable of killing thousands, even tens of thousands. And, this regime is in no way isolated. They will evade the economic consequences of sanctions with the aid of Russia, China, and others (Turkey, Venezeula, Brazil come to mind).
If this is the case, why wait to take military action?
Correctly, Prof. Rubin says that such a serious decision with so many consequences is not one any politician would care to make. And that’s the problem. Netanyahu is a politician. He is not a leader. He’s not exactly Winston Churchill, that’s for sure.
Mr Netanyahu has a reputation for being indecisive, buckling under pressure, & changing his mind for his own narrow short-term political interest.
And so we come to the next point – Ehud Barak, the Israeli Minister of Defense & head of the Left-wing Labour Party & a member of the coalition that forms the current gov’t.
What can I say about Ehud Barak? He has made a career of being wrong, he’s a serial bungler, a strategic disaster, an unprincipled unscrupulous opportunist, corrupt, a conniver, treacherous, and he is Barak Obama’s man within the Netanyahu gov’t. – in truth, he should register as the agent of a foreign gov’t.
As long as this clown is Minister of Defense, inaction will be the policy of the Israeli gov’t. – inaction & appeasement.
Caroline Glick wrote a very good assessment of the current situation, an assessment that I have held for the last few years. Her article is titled, ”A War on Who’s Terms?” & it can be found on her blog. It’s well worth reading.
Basically, the point is that the advantage lies with the side that strikes first. Preemptive action, the truism that the best defense is a good offense is the best option in our circumstances. Waiting to be attacked is not smart.
It should also be quite clear by now that the Obama administration has tacitly accepted the idea of a nuclear Iran, stupidly believing in some idiotic version of containment.
Not initiating an attack is a major blunder to put it mildly.
Our situation is very much like pre-1967 but Israel is repeating the mistake of 1973.
Debka, which I know is often criticized, claims that the Iranian re-defector who turned up at the Pakistan Embassy in Washington was indeed an Iranian gov’t agent, and that he has been feeding misinformation to the West for years. According to the analysis, what he was tasked to cover up was the fact that the program is much farther along than the CIA, or Barry Rubin, believe. According to Debka, it was his misinformation that prompted the ‘discovery’ near Qom which turned out to be a dead end, while the real work is going on elsewhere.
Larry in the Silicon.
I read the post at DebkaFile. I know that many say Debka is not reliable but I think they’re more often right than wrong. I figured he was a double-agent from day one.
In any case, everyone is pretty much guessing at the time-line so why take a risk?
There’s another major problem here – Western intellectuals & academics, ”experts”, journalists, etc. etc. don’t like war. The thought of deliberate violence, the use of force, goes against their principles. Being from a different culture, I have no qualms about being ruthless, I’m not squeemish like Westerners (& that includes most Israelis).
If we have the military capability, we should use it. Winning is better than losing, that’s my motto.
Terry, let’s hope that the leadership shares at least some of your professed ruthlessness. You are absolutely right – Westerners are soft, including most conservatives. So many times we talk ourselves out of toughness on ‘moral’ grounds. In fact the tenets of ‘im ani li, mi li’ and ‘those who are kind to the cruel…’ are true. Human nature is not what we would wish it to be. You see the liberalism even in the national-religious camp, and the urgent wishes for a messianic conclusion and lions laying down with lambs. Meanwhile, Assad is massacring Kurd with Turkish and Hizbollah help. I’ll start praying that Bibi is more Raful or Zeevi than he is a Kadima wannabe.
Terry, I agree that DEBKA is more often right than wrong, in fact, their odds are very good in the accuracy department.
I also concur with your other assessments. It is most always the case, the one who initiates the action is the one who has the advantage. Here’s hoping and praying that Israel’s leaders don’t leave us exposed to the Iranian madmen.
I can guarantee that the day that Iran joins the nuclear club is the day that immigration here dries up, and emigration speeds up.IF our leaders don’t want Israel to become a shadow of itself it would do well to consider these words.Moreover, the brain drain will be devastating-a slow, tortuous, economic death.
An attack is the trigger for global war. Certainly a deterring factor in Israel’s decision to not yet act. The question is now, will Iran have the ability to develop, deliver and detonate an atomic device before late 2011?
Based on your reputation Mr. Rubin I am hopeful that your information regarding Russia and China and Turkey is correct. I don’t doubt their ability to “publicly denounce and secretly take…”.
Of interest is an article at the Weekly Standard.com – ”Should Israel Bomb Iran?” by
Reuel Marc Gerecht, sub-titled, ”Better Safe Than Sorry” ….
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/should-israel-bomb-iran
The question I have for Prof. Rubin is what is the acceptable level of risk?
I say that it is ZERO. There is no acceptable level of risk.
Unless you’re a fan of playing Russian roulette with a loaded gun ……
Rubin’s points are valid and worth considering but he overstates the case in saying anyone with a different view doesn’t know what he’s talking about. For a different view by someone who’s also a Middle East expert, see this by Reuel Marc Gerecht:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/should-israel-bomb-iran
He says Israel shouldn’t waste any more time hitting Iran because the situation is more precarious by the day, and he sees a substantial possibility that Netanyahu and Barak will go for it.
By the way, how do you (or anyone else) know for sure the time-line for Iran to complete it’s program & obtain nuclear weapons with a delivery system?
Do you really believe the CIA or other intelligence services? They don’t exactly have a sterling record for accuracy.
The truth is that no one knows for sure, for all you know, they could have the bomb tomorrow. Or next week. Or next month.
Agreed, believing it is 2-4 years out is way too comfortable. My guess is that they will have an operational capacity sooner than that.
Not only that, it is very likely that Iran has *some* nukes obtained from Russia, N Korea, or Pakistan. The real delay is probably in the delievery system department.
“Iran’s obtaining a deliverable nuclear weapon is at least two, probably three, and perhaps four years off”
Unless, of course, they’re hiding something.
Israel, like America, is under attack from many fronts.
And Obama is not helping things by calling on our Middle East ally to give what little land it has to its enemies so he can sleep better at night.
We are at war with people who want us all to accept eternal slavery= Islam ( translation from Arabic = submission).
Consider this:
The chief of the operation that killed 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics just died. What is telling is that the man whom Obama and the rest of the world is calling on Israel to give land to, to essentially capitulate to, Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority, just sent a letter to the murderer’s family in which he praised him for his service to Palestine and the enemies of Israel and Judeo-Christian society.
http://www.jewishdailyreport.wordpress.com
We’re already endangered, war is imminent, you can be assured of that.
Was there any totalitarian regime which collapsed because of huge international sanctions? I don’t think so – Iraq, North Korea, Cuba, Albania. It just strengthened those regimes.
And I doubt that sanctions are even practically and semi-fully possible. US has sanctions against Iran on just everything, doesnt it? And you can buy Cocacola and Pepsicola products just everywhere. They are manufactured under Ireland’s license. Companies very often just don’t like to pursue same policy as its government. And even government should be liking this since it increases cultural power of its nation.
The tension between corporation and its government I like the most is Chevron in MPLA’s Angola – Cuban “advisors” were defending its oil rigs against American and South African proxy UNITA…
Let me get this straight: Because there is more anti-semitism across the globe than there has been since 1930′s Germany, Israel should appease nations across the world and not attempt to protect itself from the existential threat of an Iranian, Syrian, and Lebanese attack. Why should a country protect itself when it will not be politically expedient? That makes so much sense! Recently, Syria used Israeli-made drones sold/given to them by Turkey to kill hundreds of Kurds, including many civilians. How come this didn’t make mainstream news? The world would rather ostracize Israel for defending itself and not letting ships with “aid” break a strategic blockade preventing weapons from entering the country.
All that you posit is true, the case you present against an Israeli preventive strike on Iran’s nuclear program is certainly stronger than the case in favor of that strike, at least for now.
Difficult decisions like these, which involve the real chance of out and out war potentially engulfing the entire region and which could cause massive casalties and huge physical damage, are difficult to take. Indeed, these decisions can only be taken if the danger of not taking them is demonstrably far greater.
However in this case Israel is in a unique position in that Israel remains the only country in the world which has been and remains directly threatened with nuclear annihilation by the Iranian leadership when they acquire these weapons of mass destruction. Thus Israel has it’s own calculations to make and these calculations neutralize much of your case against an Israel strike. Furthermore, as you recognize, for Israel time is running out.
Thus Israel could decide any day now that on the basis of it’s own information, intelligence, and military capabilities a military or missile strike on the Iranian nuclear program, the Iranian leadership, or the Iranian Republican Guards and the ensuing region wide fallout from that attack is far outweighed by the real and immediate possibility of the nuclear genocide of Israel at the hands of the Iranians.
But whether now or later, there is going to be a very high paid indeed, when the Iranians achieve nuclear weapons capability or are prevented militarily from doing so.
Hmmm. We’re isolating Iran are we? I suppose that is why Brazil has contracted to sell Tehran hundreds of tons of uranium ore. And Putin has guaranteed them oil and gas to circumvent the paltry UN embargo. And Turkey is establishing a military alliance with the Revolutionary Guards. And China is furthering its commercial penetration into Persia.. On the other had, Andora has remained a steadfast supporter of US policy. Short of employing nuclear weapons, Israel lacks the technical ability to seriously cripple the Iranian nuclear program. Only the US has the non-nuclear tactical wherewithal to do the job. But won’t. It would not be considered compatible with Obama’s feckless Muslim outreach. ‘Isolating Iran’ is an inanity, a self-deluding cover to assuage the feelings of our impotent policy makers.
Do you know what you are talking about?
Perhaps the reason why many people believe that Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities is because they conducted a similar attack on Syria in 2007. You do not have to support Israel or hate it to see that. Israel is the master of pre-emptive action and not afraid of other nations disapproval to go it alone to defend its national interests; they certainly have not cared about the voices in Washington calling for an end to settlement expansion in the occupied territories.
How do you know someone has no idea what they’re talking about? Their name is:
Barry Rubin: I looked at the first few paragraphs…For me, your article demonstrates perfectly “no idea what they’re (you) talking about…in my view you wrote till you believed your own BS”…so out to lunch, I bet you supported and voted for “Harold Hill” Obama…yes you did…and you may even be proud of it…
Barry said:
“First”…wrong
“Second”…wrong
“Clearly”…wrong
Well, I owe you an apology. My first comment was posted. Please delete my previous complaint.
You know, I was really shocked when for some reason (technical) my post wasn’t there.
I’m so used to being censored, that’s what I immediately assumed. And to have it come from someone whose work I admire, even if I don’t always agree, it really got me angry.
So, again, my apologies, most sincere.
This time I can sign it ”Still A Fan”
Based on the questionable integrity of the Iranians as well as that of the supposed UN & other observers, how in the world can PJ categorically say how far the Iranians have come in their alleged efforts to complete a nuclear weapon?
This article is purely speculative, totally subjective & written by someone with an agenda, not sure what it is yet, but this type of “journalism” is the type that gives rise to ignorance that furthers the ignorance of already ignorant people.
Lots of folks in the US are willing to fight Iran to the last dead Israeli. The US has enough firepower in the gulf to take care of the problem right now. And still the only people to suffer if that happens will be Israeli when Iran, Hezbolla, Hamas, and Syria counterattack.
Even then it is still the US doing the heavy lifting and Israel taking all retaliatory blows. Where are the Saudis? They dont want to scratch the paint on the high tech planes we keep selling them.
The Iron Dome being put up now will not help. There is only enough money for 2 batteries and both will be in the south. They are mobile I think but not enough rockets even with the Arrows, and the sky will be black with them within hours of a strike on Iran, no matter who does it.
I am not so worried about the mistakes of 1973 as those of 1956. With Obama at the helm nobody has Bibi’s back. This is not the time to go all in.
Spin
An attack on Iran would ensure that israel would be dismantled as a state in the near future. It would never survive the hypocrisy of attacking a neighor 1600K miles away for obtaining what it itself already has.
it would rule out a real peace with all of its neighbors that it would never recover from.
you can bomb them, but Iran with its 40 million people wont go away. India, China and Russia will cozy up to them, they have oil after all…what does israel have? israel will be sided against the emerging world…eventually america will stop supporting it and poof, either they become a one state bi-national state or it will be picked apart to its no longer legitamate or until stronger countries attack it. the future is practically written already…if israel doesnt make a real peace with its neighbors soon, it will never last.
Blah, blah, blah…
It’s a mental condition, pointless to argue, do you speak any Yiddish? Gornisht in kop.
Is it any wonder that the Left is so totally discredited here, all you can do is laugh.
People from the Flat Earth Society make more sense.
No Yiddish really, but I think I can translate that one anyhow.
Basically, ‘Avi’ believes in the Religion of Jewish Powerlessness. It works for individuals. My mother had a friend growing up whose older brother was George Steiner, a refugee from France. I believe that Steiner was the first prominent American Diaspora Jew to bring ‘anti-Zionism’ to the arts. He was a playwright. I read a book years ago that was a collection of essays on Zionism, including one by Rabin. I am not, of course, a fan of the late former PM, however, I did take pleasure in his essay. In it, he attacked Steiner and what George represented. It was eloquent, I have to say. I feel about these people as Rabin felt. Gornish in kop.
This discussion avoids some critical elements of the situation:
- we don’t know exactly at which point of the bomb-making process the mad mullahs are
- the main target of the world wide islamic war against the West is America
- as soon as the mullahs will have the bomb, the terrorist organizations will have the bomb
- despite the big propaganda on missiles and long-range attacks, the mullahs are probably studying the way to TRANSPORT nukes, into America
- our Southern border is open to the penetration of MANY groups of terrorists carrying huge bomb components
- a sequel of nuclear explosions IN America would leave America in shock and the world in the hands of the mad mullahs
Conclusion:
many people have a lot of problems to think about.
Including the present administration, that is surely made of subversives , but that probably wouldn’t like to be called to answer for a colossal massacre allowed by its demented policies.
Meditate, folks, meditate on these points…………
Here two Israeli security experts, while not going into whether Israel should attack, see the Iranian threat as much more looming than Rubin does, and I do think they know what they’re talking about–
http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=4234
“Iran’s obtaining a deliverable nuclear weapon is at least two, probably three, and perhaps four years off. Why do something now?”
Uh, how on God’s earth do you know that for sure? Who says that? Are you believing our CIA, the same people who just three years ago in 2007 contributed to an intelligence report that said that Iran gave up its nuclear weapons program? You know, the one that allowed the mainstream media to call Bush a “warmonger” for wanting tougher sanctions against the Iranians? Or are you trusting the Europeans, who negotiated with the Iranians for years over this very issue and have nothing to show for it? Or how about the “much-vaunted” IAEA, who under the Bush administration said there was no nuclear bomb program, but now says the Iranians are working on such a program?
I’m really curious to know where you get your information from to make such a bold statement. From the same people that said North Korea was not able to make a nuclear weapon for years? Or maybe the same intelligence people that said in the 1990s that Osama bin Laden was just a regional threat, but certainly not an international one.
God save us from “analysts” who know, who just know, what’s going on inside closed dictatorial regimes. The only thing you can count on is that they’re almost always WRONG.
All these “experts” pronouncing that Iran is “so many months or so many years” from having a nuclear bomb”.
How the Hell would they know? The Persians invented Chess. You hide and disguise your moves until…Checkmate! Many people whose daily lives are dedicated to the current war with Islamism have said for years Iran already has nukes. Paul Williams “Day of Islam” is on such book. It’s not speculation, it’s all based on connecting the dots of existing hard intelligence.
Why wouldn’t the Iranians have a bomb already? They’ve been working on it for decades. Tunnel boring machines are a huge industry in Iran right now. They have been boring enormous tunnels into the mountains for years and years. They could easily have a whole stock pile of nukes…what are they waiting for? Trying to goad Israel into attacking first? Or the U.S.? Then what? EMP strikes over the mainland?
So, which is it? That they already have them or are so many years out? Only one thing is for sure: it’s WAY to close.
Who really knows the circle of decision-makers in Israel and their level of tension today, tomorrow, and the next day? Who knows who will say “Enough! We go!” What information will come from what source and when will it arrive to become the trigger event? Is it not so that Israel is in a heightened state of preparedness now? Might just one believable intel report set off their strike, even today?
In the end game, it is not hard to believe that Israel will strike, since it is a matter of national survival; it is simply a question of obtaining one piece of information that tips the scale, or one strong opinion that forces the decision, with, or without, that final bit. To predict the time of the strike’s beginning in the short term is rather difficult, yet I personally do not see any real and public defusion taking place, either on the part of the Israelis, the Iranians, or the US.
First, it is too early to consider such an option in strategic terms. As long as Iran has not completed its effort to obtain nuclear weapons, the less there is to be gained by destroying uncompleted facilities or processes that are not yet at their full capacity.
The earlier one attacks, the easier it is for the Iranian regime to rebuild.
It may not be as early as you think. What if this situation is progressing exponentially rather than linearly? When a situation is progressing exponentially, what appears to be “half way” is really the 11th hour. The time to solve an exponential problem is when it doesn’t look like that big of a problem.
Much more on this at The 29th Day – Solutions in a World of Accelerating Change
The regime is under more pressure than ever, currently there are strikes going on in bazaars across the country which has never happened to the Mullahs before. Many in the IRGC are refusing orders to kill protesters, some are defecting, and officers have been assassinated in Iran and in Syria. Planes full of high ranking IRGC members have been crashing. The IRGC is a huge business conglomerate with billions of dollars at stake, should the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad lose their support then that could spell the end of the regime. The strikes hurt their bottom line, the sanctions hurt their bottom line, and now they are having trouble selling their oil. Iran has to discount its oil $3 to $5 a barrel. Credit is also a problem. What would happen if tankers carrying Iranian oil were systematically but clandestinely sabotaged enough to further discourage foreign buyers. Given that Somali pirates have been pirating ships at will, how hard would it be to have a few frogmen take out a tanker’s propeller? Navy divers can be inserted and extracted by submerged subs. Should that not work a blockade could be imposed before massive strikes need be considered. The high level commanders of the IRGC will never give up; the only road surrender will give them stops at the end of a rope. The rank and file however…
Perhaps the Israeli’s are waiting for the moral high ground to attack, like when Tel Aviv is smoking from some multiple missile attack by a multitude of islamonations intent on the final solution.
The way it looks now that is the only way Israel can win by dying to prove a point, the Israeli’s are or were the good guys.
Well the pressure is on Tehran now with todays announcement that they will not be getting the Russian S-300 system. This leaves them very vulnerable. The success of the Iron Dome tests raises the possibility that their forward based smaller rockets in Lebanon may become obsolete if not used soon and Israel is rapidly developing yet another intermediate range missile defense called “David’s Sling” which they are hoping to get online in the next few years.
The Iranians are taking a huge risk spending so much political and economic capitol on a weapon system which may be destroyed before it ever becomes operational. Even if they got nukes using them would mean that Iran would cease to exist. The fools should have concentrated on conventional forces. Nuclear weapons are fools gold. They do not make you invulnerable and Israel has the scars to prove it.
Imagine you are an Iranian general. You have 10 nuclear missiles with which to attack Israel. Here are some of your problems:
- The launches will be tracked immediately by Israel which has Arrow-3 and Patriot-3 batteries capable of destroying all or most of your precious arsenal. They will also be tracked by US navy anti-missile ships which can take them out.
- You must aim carefully with small warheads. It wouldnt do to drop a nuke on the al-aqsa mosque or to wipe out Gaza with fallout. Fallout would also endanger Lebanon, Egypt, Jordon, and Syria. Can you imagine how Christians would forever feel if the birthplace of Jesus, minutes from Jerusalem, was nuked? The Israeli government is in Jerusalem and would survive.
- The second you launch you have can be sure that your nation will no longer exist. Tehran, surrounded by mountains, has been described as a perfect nuclear killing field. So your missiles might never reach their targets but the Israeli ones will and they have a lot more than you do.
Anyway, you and I might not know much about where Iran is in their program, but it is the business of Israeli intellegence to know. Assuming that it is no rush better to let them spend their money and wreck their economy and political standing for now. They cannot strengthen their defenses and Israel is rapidly strengthening hers.
This is not to say that Iranian nuclear threat is not real. They must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. I simply doubt that this would be the best time to do it. You really want to mess with the Mullahs? Make a peace deal with the Palestinians, or better yet, Syria. Oh well that probably wont happen either.
The problem with Iran having nukes doesn’t just involve whether they will actually use them. They may not have to in order to destroy Israel. They can act as a deterrent to strong action against the country much as North Korea uses its nukes. Look at the fact that North Korea actually committed an act of war by sinking a South Korean ship and no one’s done anything. Imagine what Hamas and Hezbollah might be capable of if Israel was afraid to retaliate. Also VDH has put forth the idea that just having nukes could so demoralize Israel that it could cease to exist as a Jewish state.
Israel’s Cuban Missile Crisis — All the Time
http://article.nationalreview.com/395387/israels-cuban-missile-crisis-all-the-time/victor-davis-hanson
“Once armed with the bomb, Iran will likely increase the frequency of its now-familiar denial of the Holocaust. In between such well-publicized lunacy, some Iranians, such as Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will periodically threaten to wipe Israel off the map — or promise Armageddon if Israel retaliates against Hamas or Hezbollah.
The net effect would be for half the world’s Jews to hear constantly two messages — there was no Holocaust, but there might well be one soon. It would be analogous to the American public reliving the threats of the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 — every day.
A recent poll revealed that a quarter of Israel’s population quite understandably might emigrate if Iran gets the bomb. And it seems likely that within a decade or two, a nuclear Iran could so demoralize the Israelis by such psychological intimidation that it could unravel Israel demographically without dropping a bomb.”
I think you have some good points Rancher. I think what the Iranians have in mind is strategic, rather than tactical. They know from history that once one has a viable nuclear force that it does not get taken away. Israel is a good example of that. Yet Israel did this in another era where such things could be done without all of this intense scrutiny and pressure. Those days are gone.
Technology is the key here.
That is why Iran is having so much difficulty. Information technology is way past what it was when Israel was in it’s nuclear phase. I think Iranian government invested way beyond what it can sustain.
Given that I do agree with Ari about the essential point that in the long term the goal is peace. If Israel and Palestinians can find a workable solution then Iran and the other bad apples lose the wind behind their sails. That is the real reason it has not happened yet. Too many parties need this conflict to continue. This a drama on the world stage entertainment reality show.
A bad peace is better than a good war
Besser a schlechter shalom vi a Guten krieg
Yiddish proverb
(Yiddish proverb)
Mahmoud Abbas has literally no room to maneuver and cannot enter the so-called “proximity talks” so long as Israel refuses to reverse itself. (The fact that they are called “proximity” talks reveals how fragile they are: Abbas could not be seen to be talking to the Israelis directly.)
But the other casualty here is the increased likelihood that Israel will see Obama’s weakness as a green light to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. In the larger scheme of things, this has graver implications than the continued floundering of the two-state solution (a solution which was on life support even before the Jerusalem issue exploded).
Ken Enlarge
Given Israel’s predicament it may be wise for Israel to wait until the very last moment. However, given the permanent nature of the global jihad, Iran must be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons at all cost. Hence, because of the possibility that Iran may have a parallel nuclear program totally undetected, the USA should not take any chances and should move to act as soon as possible.
Not only that, but given the permanent nature of the global jihad, the regimes responsible for financing and funding it, primarily the House of Saud and the Emirs of the Gulf states, will also have to be eradicated and their oil wealth confiscated. Otherwise, they will continue financing and funding jihad against us permanently, and that is something we should not tolerate.
In other words, instead of lifting up Muslims as both the GWB and BHO administrations both advocate, we really need to be rendering them all into abject poverty. Lifting up Muslims is exactly the wrong thing to do, because it is exceedingly counterproductive.
the other casualty here is the increased likelihood that Israel will see Obama’s weakness as a green light to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. In the larger scheme of things, this has graver implications than the continued floundering of the two-state solution
What do you mean the floundering two state solution? Haven’t you figured out yet by now that the so-called peace process is really a faux peace process, as the jihad against Israel, just like the global jihad as well, is permanent? The Dar al Islam will never make peace with Israel since that would be blasphemous.
Any action worth its salt would come as a complete surprise, including to us.
Iran uses proxies in most of its attacks.
Hizbollah, the Shi’ite Iranian proxy army in Southern Lebanon, on Israel’s northern border, is such a terrorist group. All of their weapons, training and financing comes from Iran.
Israel intel has determined that they are preparing for an attack soon.
http://jewishdailyreport.wordpress.com/2010/07/23/israel-prepares-for-war-with-lebanonhizbollah-terrorists/
This might not be the right place to post this question but I just read an article and I keep on wondering…. I wonder if all these that are so strongly against Israel’s methods of defending themselves would feel much better if Israel becomes extinct? If Israel is attacked by Iran with nuclear weapons, I just read, that it would take only 3 nuclear weapons and 60 seconds to destroy all of Israel. Is that what all these that are so much against Israel are hopping for? And if the answer is no then why shouldn’t Israel do all they think is right to do to defend themselves? The other question is, IS the answer no? I wonder.
As an Israeli.. I realize a lot of people would get hurt and I am probably going to lose a member of my family or a friend. I also pity the Iranian people who I grew to like as smart and advanced.
But if we don’t stop the nutcase that took power in Iran it will only get worse as time passes. Better to attack now and acknowledge the retributions to come than to wait for their capabilities to grow. It is coming whichever the case is.
Israel Iran war is coming sooner rather than later.. and it’s probably not going to be restricted to those two countries alone so you better get ready to ramble.
dave r its nice to see ur true colors sounding like god with ppls lives u jew until iran attacks anybody with its nukes u cant attack em cause then ur no better, just because u think u r just greedy jews zionist want money and whores simple
debating “when” is a moot point,when the showdown is imminent. Placing emphasis on a small window of 2, 3, or 4 years is pointless.