Why Santorum Voters Wouldn’t Become Gingrich Voters
Conventional wisdom has been that Rick Santorum’s continued presence in the presidential race is taking votes away from Newt Gingrich. As the Florida primary vote approached, Professor William A. Jacobson warned that “a vote for Santorum is still a vote for Romney.”
However Rush Limbaugh cast doubt on the theory, saying that there was a reason Santorum voters were not for Gingrich and that he suspected Santorum voters would break more towards Romney if Santorum were not in the race.
To believe the polls, the truth lies somewhere in between, with data suggesting that Santorum voters wouldn’t break overwhelmingly either way:
- The NBC-Marist poll taken right before the Florida primary showed Romney leading Gingrich by fifteen points. They asked how voters would vote in a straight Romney-Gingrich race. In a two-man race, Romney’s lead became sixteen points.
- Public Polling polled Missouri voters and found in a four-way caucus race, Gingrich led 30% to 28% for Santorum and 24% for Romney. In a two-way Gingrich-Romney race, Gingrich held a scant 43-42% lead, while in a Santorum-Romney race, Santorum led 50-37%.
- In Ohio, PPP found a similar phenomenon. Gingrich led Romney and Santorum 26-25-22%. In a two-man race, Gingrich only led Romney by a 42-39% margin, while Santorum would lead Romney 45-38%.
- While not a scientific poll, the blog Hot Air’s reader survey gave a picture of how supporters of each candidate would react to different scenarios. Gingrich held a 45-33% lead over Romney in the most recent site survey with Santorum drawing 22% of the vote. If participants were restricted to Gingrich and Romney, the margin for Gingrich would be 57-43%, but in a two-man race, Santorum beats Romney 61-39%.
All four polls illustrate the point that Santorum voters aren’t all going to break for Gingrich, and three of the examples suggest that Santorum would do a better job of picking up Gingrich supporters than vice versa. Is this polling noise or is there a reason for this trend?
The answer is found in the entrance and exit polls. While often cited for evidence of how people voted according to identity politics, the exit polls also look at the most important candidate quality voters used in making their decision. While the phrase “values voters” has been in vogue since 2004, the voters that have hurt Newt Gingrich’s campaign for the presidency could be known as “character voters.”
Gingrich doesn’t appeal on a number of levels. Among women, his appeal is least because he is the least handsome.
It boggles the mind that writers like Adam Graham are so wont to writing Santorum’s political obituary.
A contest between Romney and Obama? What? Americans are forced to choose between a Mormon and an anti-Christ? Is there a better case for a country suffering from mass insanity? It would seem more compelling to seek another country than a polling place.
Here’s hoping you’ll take your own advice.
Atlantis sounds like the perfect option for you; don’t let the door . . . . . .
Atlantis is under water.
Chile seems to be doing well.
Romney will manage the Washington branch of Goldman Sachs at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave about as well as the Bushes did, if you’re lucky. My bet is that he’ll grow Leviathan and do nothing to undo Obamacare. There is some doubt about whether he can inspire enough people to trade the current Harvard man in chief for a newer, whiter one.
I thought this was a presidential election-not a beauty contest.
When we live in the age of color television and 50% of the electorate are women, looks matter. Sorry, old, short, white haired and bald guys.
Among women, his appeal is least because he keeps changing wives
What is the purpose of this article?
Is it to apply “divide and conquer” among Conservatives?
Which benefits *which* other candidate…?!? (wink wink)
FAIL.
*Each* candidate has their strengths and weaknesses.
As with marriage, you have to accept or reject the whole package.
That’s still no excuse for such drivel as this piece.
Thanks Ed Wallis, and a great big DITTO.
At least in my case, you and Rush are wrong. I’ll vote for either Gingrich or Santorum, depending on who’s still in the race, etc. The only reason I’ll vote for Romney is ABO.
P.S.
a ditto to Ed Wallis and L. McKinnon.
Interesting to note that Gingrich has suggested that Santorum drop out.
Santorum has said that he wouldn’t ever think of asking someone to drop out.
The underlying thought process is what is interesting. Gingrich believes that those now voting for Santorum would automatically “split” the “non-Romney” vote.
Polling suggests he’s wrong. Santorum is much more likely to pick up Gingrich voters…Gingrich is in a free fall at the polls. Now, we can take polling or leave it. But, we can’t take it one day and then completely dismiss it the next.
Or, suggest that it’s the gospel last week and rubbage this week.
Gingrich’s internals must be telling him something that is making him very cranky and irritable. His inner circle must be telling him that this rerun of V for Vendetta isn’t playing well any longer.
But listening isn’t Newtrino’s long suit. He’s right, of course. Dropping out would clearly be in the best interest of the “not Romney” crowd. Santorum would clearly pick up what’s left of that fevered pitched movement.
If Newtrino clearly believes what he says…that they are splitting the “not Romney” vote which only one of them can survive…then all the “not Romney’s” should be clamoring for Santorum.
Except…Santorum doesn’t “fill” the empty spot. He’s not satisfying in the visceral itching places that need scratching. He doesn’t punch the propaganda machine in the nose. Newt does…and he punches out and tilts at windmills whenever he feels the slightest slight as well. Many voters might cheer Newt’s inner “don Corleone” once in a while, but not his inner don Quixote. Eventually, they may stop cheering both sides of the Unstable Newtrino. Most of them have already.
They are different as corn and cottage cheese stylistically, Newt and Santorum.
But is was Santorum all along who was the more dangerous opponent for Romney. Santorum understood it was business with Mitt, not personal. The Newtonian Implosion always wants to go to the mattresses, all the time.
That’s bad strategy. It’s reckless. Frankly, it’s stupid. He’s making enemies where he needs friends. Santorum is letting him do this and not getting mixed up in it. Smart. If Newtrino believes his own stance…then he should drop out. His campaign is about to make a turn onto the causeway.
I think the author’s conclusions are reasonable. Taking the poll numbers and bumping them up against the exit polls from Florida is, IMO, a valid approach, and I will take El Rushbo’s political instincts over mine any day.
If Santorum dropped out, there would not be a mass exodus of Santorum voters to the Speaker, but in all liklihood there will be a mix, based on the “character” issue. This may be bitter medicine for some of you to swallow, but it sounds like a well-thought-out conclusion to me.
A better response would be for Romney to withdraw.
He is proud to be a moderate & grandfather of Obamacare. Brags of it. Even his ‘solution’ to national Romneycare lets the mechanism in place.
His supposed selling points are his draw to the moderate voters and liberals.
However …
He lost in Iowa, proving that he can’t pull moderate mid-westerners to his cause.
He lost in the open primary in South Carolina, proving he can’t pull in democrats.
He lost in the northern part of FL, further proving that he can’t pull in the south. He won the areas overrun by liberal & moderate retirees from New England and New York.
His only clear win is in liberal Vermont. And they will go with the rest of New England since Obama will promise them more goodies.
He couldn’t even get a majority in Sodom in the Desert even though he effectively had favorite son status
Time for mittens to withdraw for the good of the party
Brilliantly stated, thank you.
Add to all that, the fact that Bain Capital (core to Romney’s campaign of “creating jobs”) will be used by the leftist MSM to crush him in a general election.
Here’s an interview with a conservative venture capitalist about Bain that will is sooo sobering – because we are *that* close to nominating someone who will lose to Obama.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmrEUHdwAwQ&feature=youtu.be
Newt Gingrich would have to overcome a huge burden placed upon him by Mitt Romney’s lying, but it’s doable, because Mitt has been so clumsy about it.
I’m a Liberal, and I’d gladly vote for Gingrich, for I have been pleasantly surprised to find out that he has some very good ideas and policy plans, and a history of genuine fiscal accomplishment, openness to good ideas from any source, and willingness to put aside some differences in order to work with anyone who agrees with him on a given point. I used to think he was poison, but then I found out how very badly his ideas and words had been mischaracterized.
I’d vote for Santorum, reluctantly, because he’s a cultural conservative as distinguished from a fiscal conservative. I don’t think he would be able to campaign against BO as effectively as Gingrich.
Romney’s a liar, I won’t support him, and I think he’d lose against the Obama machine because the Democrats won’t have to lie to make some strongly negative, truthful, ads against him.
There is something to this argument. My thinking is that Newt Gingrich resents being slimed by millions of dollars of Mitt Romney’s negative adds and will stay in the race until the end in order to keep damaging Romney. There is a non zero possibility that Rick Santorum will wind up as the last man standing from that mutual annihilation fest.
Personally I will vote for one of the non Romney candidates when the primary is held in my state. If the only non Romney is Ron Paul, oh well.
When it comes to the November election I will vote for the Republican candidate regardless of whether it is Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Ron Paul or Charley Sheen. I would vote for the next President to be selected at random from the population to replace Obama if that were the option.
As with Obama, Romney can’t run on his record…what a LOSER:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHIiR7yr9rM&feature=player_embedded#!