Why Did the National Hurricane Center Blow It on Earl?
Businesses gearing up for a profitable Labor Day weekend in a recession economy were devastated, but it wasn’t Hurricane Earl that did the damage. It was the inaccurate predictions from the National Hurricane Center.
From Cape Cod to Maine thousands of would-be vacationers cancelled their hotel reservations, as hurricane warnings were issued for the Cape and tropical storm warnings were posted all along Maine’s coast. Reacting to these warnings local media sprung into action — mighty Earl was on the way! Reporters waited along the beaches from New York to Maine.
Amtrak cancelled service from New York to Boston. Continental Airlines cancelled 60 flights.
The strongest sustained wind on Nantucket Island was 41 miles per hour — just above tropical storm strength of 39 miles per hour. The peak wind gust there was 54 miles per hour — far short of the minimum hurricane force of 74 miles per hour. Rainfall totaled 2 to 4 inches.
In a part of the country accustomed to dealing with Nor’easters, this was just another windy, rainy Friday night. By Saturday morning Earl was gone, along with profit opportunities for hotels and restaurants across southern and eastern New England.
Is the National Hurricane Center guilty of yet another example of manufactured panic by the government that brought you Y2K, West Nile virus, and the bird flu scare? Is there a systemic process in government that tends to blow events and potential events out of proportion?
The Hurricane Center did accurately predict the path of the hurricane as it passed south of New England. It was forecast to pass south of Nantucket Island Friday night as it was weakening to a less potent tropical storm.
If they got the storm track right, why were the other elements of the forecast so bad?
The winds of a hurricane blow counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere, making the strongest winds of a hurricane on the storm’s right side — where the forward motion of the hurricane and the winds around the center are generally in the same direction. The opposite effect is realized on the left side of the storm. As Earl was moving to the northeast, the wind on the north side of the storm was blowing opposite to the storm’s forward motion. This has the effect of reducing the winds on the left.
Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the islands, coastal New Hampshire, and Maine were accurately predicted to be on the weaker side of Earl. But in spite of this, tropical storm warnings (meaning winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour) would hit coastal New Hampshire and Maine as Earl passed well to the south Friday night.
Some hotels at Old Orchard Beach, Maine, lost 80 percent of their reservations when vacationers heard the scary forecasts. Saturday, Sunday, and Labor Day Monday’s weather was spectacular on the coast of Maine, but many vacationers weren’t there to enjoy it.
Well, here in NE at least two things contributed:
1. All the local stations followed Earl from three or four days out with their “Earlwatch etc” promos ad nauseum. It’s a lot more exciting to think a storm may be coming, blah, blah, blah. The central premise is to get people to WATCH, right? By the last 24 hours, it was 24/7 coverage. The sheepish stations did (probably under pressure from Cape Merchants) tell people when the storm passed that the Cape would be a good place to visit for the rest of the weekend.) Too late.
2. Hurricane Bob, a decade or more ago, which was not a monster hurrricane, tore thousands of boats from their moorings, smashed them into each other and/or left them well inland when the storm passed. So a huge majority of boat-owners pulled their boats before this one, just to be safe, and that contributed to the buzz.
Art: You don’t think the MSM heightened the magnitude of the storm in order to cause another crisis? They would NEVER do that, right? That the left did would not use the storm as another example of global warming? That the Dear Leader could have saved the day? Nah, neither did I.
The National Weather Service did report accurately what they believed to be the track and intensity of the hurricane. With that said perhaps the was a little excess of caution regarding the potential damage from this hurricane. This is just one more example of our Nanny State. It is no longer sufficient to tell people of the potential danger and then let them decide a course of action.
The new networks( the word news is used loosely) is infected with blond talking heads and an over stock if metro-sexual males( and the word male is used loosely) have a lot of hours to fill with breathless excitement, reading teleprompters filled with comments made by other brainless metro-sexual males and airhead females.
I no longer wonder why every “news story” is exaggerated and overblown.
I’m with Dwight. Although from the Harrisburg, PA area, I was watching the media hype and the ‘official forecasts.’ They didn’t seem to be in synch. As Earl went up the coast, the reports (more accurately the lack thereof) from where it had been were pretty clear. It wasn’t what was expected. The farther north it went, the more that was true.
As a Florida resident for the last 8 years I’m pretty familiar with charts. What the TV weather people were doing is indicating the whole cone of the track as hurricane strength. This was a blatant distortion of what the wind strength surrounding the eye was. All for TV ratings.
Another of those prime-a-facial examples where the Lame-stream-Media got the “do-do” on their faces . . . but they sure put those extra bucks away. Just as they assisted in putting a Obama-bin-lyin in the Oval-tine and make the the bucks . . . now they rip off the localized, small business, and . . . put the bucks in their pockets again.
The MSM has no credibility on much of anything anymore.
We live in an era of political science. Science means to know, and our best educated, highly technical, instrument rich people, simply hit the wall of unknowable very quickly. This is normal; we are far better informed than in the days when a Cat. 5 hurricane appeared unannounced on the coast, causing massive deaths. Today, people who choose to stay and risk certain death from hurricanes, are simply exhibiting natural selection, the survival of the smartest.
We knew infinities about Katrina before it hit New Orleans as a down graded rain storm. What we did not know is that the Corps of Engineers knowingly, for decades, designed and built levees that could not withstand a rain storm. This is political science. We learned it at Three Mile Island with the NRC, we learned it in the BP oil well blow out with the Interior Department. We are suffering through it with global warming; our power plants are so old, “some critics say they might fail and kill you.” Whenever you hear, “some one said”, or “might”, you are hearing political science, Democratic science, Republican science, environmental science, corporation science. There is a difference between might know, and know.
Take scientific statements with a grain of salt. Chances are it will rain in New England.
I think the blame is squarely with the media not the Hurricane Center or the government. To get more productive the media has to get more viewers but it has the same input stream of news that its always had. So it has to take small events and blow them up into major events.
I am always greatly amused to see grown men (metro-sexual?)try to advance the hype of a storm or hurricane by standing out in the weather. They tell us the strength of the wind, the accumulated inches of rainfall and the heights of waves – all while wearing their ‘oil skins’ and leaning into the wind to bear witness to their bravery. Heraldo Rivera (sp) instantly comes to mind.
Of course this always happens AFTER the mayor / governor has ordered evacuation of the area, so I wonder whom they are trying to impress? Maybe after one of them finally gets killed by flying debris they will finally come to realize they can provide the same information to the viewing public from behind their hotel window!
The media frequently uses hurricane hype as a distraction from more important stories. The last time Hurricane Earl turned out to be nothing more than media hype was in 1998 when Bill Clinton was busted by the stain on Minica’s blue dress.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdaxBkQjJXo
Don’t y’all get? WE tilted the storm towards the northeast to send all them yankee libtards and media into a tizzy. Once we got ‘em runnin’ around like scared chickens, WE just tuned it down and steered it safely away. Always good for a laugh when the mediots look foolish. Gotta go now.(my black helicopter’s waitin’ to take me to… uh..nevermind)
I am sorry, I have to disagree. I moved to N Fla in 1993. In 2004, my perceptions changed. I lived in the bat cave for a month as storm after storm came close by. I was returning from Ky on I-75 at I-10 as tropical storm Jeanne ( formerly hurricane ) racked nearby. I could barely see the road past the front hood.
The NHC is very good at what they do. As Earl moved over PR, it wasn’t suppossed to be there with the forecast from four days before. So it actually was to the west of the cone.
The weather underground is a nice place to track storms, even if the good doctor is a GW type of guy. I have learned much.
As hard as these guys try, and some are very good and have creds of their own, the NHC is the best at this.
So I would give the NNHC a break here. Remember Charley? Things happen.
It is always better to prepare for the worst. It’s only common sense.
Global warming alarmists have been predicting record hurricane activity every year since 2005 as supporting evidence to the inevitability of a crisis. They have lost credibility on everything they have preached for the last 20 years, but the flow of money from the federal government, to whomever supports the theory, continues to run unabated. The National Hurricane Center has been attempting to make these clowns look like they are right about something as well. Follow the damned money and you can explain all of the crises we always seem to be facing.
Funny, but a media meteorologist wondering aloud about storm hype doesn’t mention his glazed colleagues who promote this claptrap. I’d put 80% of the blame on the lazy media that were counting on weather drama to carry them through a holiday weekend while lounging between takes at the shore. Pity they and Earl didn’t deliver the goods; and that this guy missed the point too.
No matter how many times the TV and newspapers deceive them, millions of gullible boobs will continue to pay for the privilege of being misled. Just like the 40 thousand car drivers all stop and gawk at an accident on the other side of the road and claim not to be a rubbernecker, too many people that should know better still allow the media filth into their mind. Just say no. You will be better informed by ignoring the daily “news” and getting deeper knowledge on a series of topics. Does anyone really need to know the instant a car chase happens in L.A.? Does it really matter if some back-woods preacher holds a press conference?
I don’t believe the NHC Earl forecast was too off. Maybe the extent of tropical storm force winds like you say, but the track was predicted flawlessly. Granted, I’m only an armchair weather-geek and not a pro so what do I know. This was MSM-hype pure and simple. Even Hannity was getting into the act on his radio show. Listening to him you would have thought NYC was in for a Cat 5 direct hit. All the MSM has to keep the eyeballs glued anymore is hype and scaring folks. We all know they’re full-time liars otherwise.
Katrina marked the end of any personal responsibility people think they need in disaster preparedness. All outlets of the government and media must now necessarily overreact, lest they’re deemed culpable for anything that goes awry.
Now, for the fun side of Earl. See how beefy he made the surf while the MSM crowed… Surfline.com’s Earl coverage
Yep, you’ve got to love the NWS. I split time between the Hill and Virginia Beach. The NWS called for gloom and doom, cats and dogs living together, etc.,
40 knot winds and ~1/2 of rain later..
I can go on about their poo-poo forecasts for snow this past winter, causing school closures for mostly clear/clear skies, ’50% chance of..’ crapola forecasts, etc.,
Gubmint weather. Always interesting to say the least. Though I’m sure ‘Government-run health insurance’ will be more thorough… bwahahahaaha
Just as much of a problem are the storm pimps at The Weather Channel. Their MISSION IN LIFE is to get dramatic footage of Jim Cantore on some wind- and rain-lashed street corner in the middle of a hurricane. When there’s no hurricane, hour after hour of vintage tornado porn will have to do as filler.
Whenever I see some weather person standing in front of a camera during a hurricane, I DON’T think ‘wow- dramatic and educational footage’- I think “GET INSIDE, YOU IDIOT! IT’S A FRIGGIN’ HURRICANE!”
No me when I see those fools out in the wind I hope to see the roof of a condo squash them. The closest yet was Geraldo Rivera getting knocked over by part of a palm tree.
I live in South Florida on the coast where evacuation is mandatory. Many times I have been forced to evacuate because safety is the primary concern like it should be. I don’t think the National Hurricane Center’s warnings and calculations should be influenced by holidays and other events rather they should be dictated by the scientific knowledge they possess. Hurricanes are not totally predictable and evacuations have to be done in advance when the data is less solid.
Rather than blame the National Hurricane Center blame the media that hypes storms for ratings rather than simply presenting the facts. I repeat hurricanes are not totally predictable so one can be hit quite hard even where it is unexpected. If anyone doubts that they should look at the films from Hurricane Andrew.