It is probably unwise to discount the possibility that we will witness the birth of a successor regime to the People’s Republic on the horizon. Some people in Asia are talking about this discreetly.

The Pearl river delta region is a disaster, hundreds of thousands of factories closing, millions of people laid off…this cannot be denied or covered up. One of the pitfalls of Capitalism and interaction with global economy is the exposure of economy to forces outside your country. This will take pre emptive steps by the the Party to avoid making the situation worse.

The region will need to focus on high tech manufacturing mainly on higher value processes; medical equipment, aerospace, heavy engineering, wafer manufacturing etc., which is occuring and will convert the region from generic manufacturing to high tech. and bring stability.

Another program is the recapitalization and development of Northeastern China. There are large construction projects and complete overhauls of regions that require workers and skilled individuals to complete. This is a large venture that will take decades to complete and set off another wave of investment in China. This will percolate to the delta river region as well and also absorb job losses there.

The Peoples Republic will stay but it will evolve from what it is today to continue managing Chinese economy and future. It will certainly give up power in the coming decade(s) to business and Government…that is a given. What i do not believe is the Communist party will be overthrown or dissolve or be forced to abdicate…China needs to have a group in charge to avoid repeating what occured in Russia; collapse of currency,economy and free for all in the market place.

Chinese people are highly resilient, independant, patriotic and passionate about their Nation. Philosophy in China is an artform, with resurgence of traditional lifestyles that support self sacrafice and the greater good. China’s atrength has always been the individual sacraficing for the greater good, and the ability to call up massive resources when required. This is a huge benifit especially in the bumpy road ahead.

http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2009-01/05/content_10605345.htm

(Note: Martin Oei’s original blog post in Chinese here: http://martinoei.wordpress.com/2009/01/06/%E4%B8%AD%E5%A4%AE%E7%9F%A5%E5%BE%97%E5%A4%AA%E9%81%B2/ “It is too late for the [Chinese] Central Government to be aware [of the root cause of protests]” )

In sum, I think your hypothesis may become true, but my judgment is that it is unlikely the People’s Republic will be the regime/dynasty/government that oversees this.

http://martinoeiarchive.blogspot.com/2009/01/blog-post_14.html

“Guangdong lays a political time bomb if political reform does not start immediately

政治不改革 廣東埋炸彈”

The conclusion:

“…in addition, on issues like urban planning, [China] should learn the example of Hong Kong where it is monitored by politically independent commissions, and not solely decided by the officials responsible. In fact, the current arrangement acts as an ideal breeding ground for corruption, and The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Communist Party of China is unable to stem the tide of corruption as long as the issue is not mitigated from an institutional standpoint.

In sum, the Pearl River Delta has become [China's] political powder keg, and as a critical region of Chinese economy, it benefits no one in China if a major political incident breaks out in the region. The cost of initiating political reform right now is much lower than letting the powder keg explode on its own.”

“…此外，在城市規劃等問題上，亦應學習香港，由獨立的委員會去把關，而不是由政府官員自己說了算。事實上，現時的制度，根本只是貪污溫床，而不在制度上減少貪污，中紀委三頭六臂都無補於事。

總言之，珠三角已經變成了政治火藥庫，而作為中國經濟的黃金地區，一旦出現重大政治事件對中國誰都沒好處。現時搞政治改革所付的成本，總得比任由火藥庫爆炸低一點。 “

The Communist Party prospered in a globalizing world. It is now facing a test with bland leaders and an inflexible political system. This is not Deng’s China anymore, and I don’t think its leaders have the ability to cope with adverse trends.

We’ll see, in the next few years, whose vision of the country comes closer to reality.

And I very much appreciate your perspectives on this critical issue.

Thank you for the response Gordon, civil debate is a lost art in the world today.

All governments are afraid of Change, it is anathema to their existance. If you want to truly frighten a politician in Washington DC, organize a grass roots campaign. This will scare them into action like nothing else, real change comes from the streets and neighborhoods of the city. Media is a mirror that reflects who we are at a given moment, but cannot effect change itself.
What causes Change? when a people have had enough of the status quo.

The Communist party ( the party) of China has a difficult job to balance the ebb and flow of markets, economies, social requirements and allowing change to occur in increments for a nation of 1.3 Billion people. This is a complicated dance and requires delicate moves. There are massive spending programs enacted in China, with more to come. These programs are paid out of cash reserves, china does not need to borrow funds, which is unique in the world today. Comparing China to western economies makes leadership in China appear downright visionary to avoid the banking errors now taking hold in the west.

Will the Communist party have the same appearance in 10 years that it has today..? no it wont, it will change to accomodate social and economic pressures we are witnessing. I believe it will be a better and leaner system than today, with greater social support along with greater economic freedom. China sits in the catbird seat, able to create economic programs that will transform entire regions into magnets of development and revitalization.

This is a difficult time for the world, but also time of great opportunity. China forges ahead with plans for reconstruction and redevelopment of large regions, continues to invite and welcome foreign companies to locate in China, continues to partner with world class companies on large overseas projects, and will continue to change in Small incremental steps.

Change always comes, no force on earth can stop it including the communist party of China. However it is how change occurs that will define leadership. Will it be based on thoughtful deliberation and careful calculation of the environment, or will it be let loose without care or concern for those that cannot fend for themselves. The communist party of China must control and guide change to allow benifit to as many people as possible and allow people to understand the benifits, pitfalls and responsibilities of Capitalism, Liberty and Freedom.

Other things the Chinese gov’t represses…

…the text of Obama’s inauguration speech when he mentioned “communism” and American steadfastness in defeating it (the live stream of the speech was, reportedly, truncated)… freedom of the Internet, any semblance of taking care of resources (water resources especially) when they come up against the (relatively new) capitalist styled, Communist dream (so when do you think the Three Gorges dam might actually burst ? 7 of the 10 most polluted cities in the world are in China) freedom for people in the provinces who are viewed as fodder for the regime…any rights attaching to those individuals who have been imprisoned, rightly or wrongly, especially when some rich “westerner” might be paying a fortune for a replacement kidney or some other body part…

China Joe, China’s biggest (maybe only goal) is to be Top Dog and it seems like China’s leaders today will do (literally) anything to its people and its land to achieve that end.

The people who Carter inspired to build houses for the needy are still building houses.

Larry, you haven’t read recently of all those Habitat for Humanity dwellings that are, literally, rotting from the inside, having been erected by people who didn’t (exactly) know what they were doing in the area of home construction ?