Who Is Fighting Libya’s Civil War?
The Arab uprising in the Middle East has swept like wildfire. The uprising that began with the fall of the Tunisian president had a domino effect throughout the Middle East and throughout North Africa. After Tunisia, events in Egypt, and soon in Jordan, Bahrain, Syria, Yemen, and even Iran followed the pattern of the new revolution.
The Libyan conflict seems to be a prime concern of the international community now, as fighting between the Gaddafi loyalists and the rebels headquartered in Benghazi reaches a deadlock. Although this conflict has captured the attention of the international media, lesser known are the complex tribal relations and institutional weaknesses behind Gaddafi’s flamboyant tyranny that weigh heavily in the balance.
Gaddafi’s takeover in the late 1960s power equilibrium
Muammar Gaddafi’s assumption of power in 1969 resulted in members of the Gaddafi tribe (the “Qadhadhfa”) and the allied Maqarha and Warfalla tribes taking over all key positions in the security arena. That includes the armed forces, police, and intelligence service. It was never to be expected, in the event of open political opposition questioning the dominance of the three tribes, that the members of the tribes would renounce their own tribes and defect to the opposition.
The Warfalla tribe was opposed to the Gaddafi tribe’s harsh treatment of the opposition, and therefore distanced itself from the Gaddafi tribe. A powerful tribe, it could afford to change course. Smaller tribes are less likely to have this choice. The small and otherwise insignificant Gaddafi tribe, which allied with the Warfalla tribe and whose territory borders the Surte region in the east, took on a politically central and dominant role when Gaddafi came to power — a position it has been able to maintain since then by entering into tribal alliances.
People, Mercenaries, and Democratic Reform
Libya has not had a constitution since 1977. Unlike Tunisia or Egypt, it has no legal frame of reference. That is why statements about future developments are impossible to make.
However, in addition to the military, the domestic Libyan opposition, the opposition among exiles, and the Islamists will play a role — and this against the background of their respective tribal affiliations. In any case, more tribes than before are likely to be represented in a possible (military) transitional council, a new transitional government, or a government of national unity.
Family and tribal loyalties are coupled to oil revenue in a manner making it very hard for NATO to stop the advance of Gaddafi’s loyalists to Misrata or even to Benghazi. The vast revenue from the oil enabled the regime to hire loyalists and mercenaries alike, and motivate them to continue fighting for the annihilation of the opposition. The Gaddafi government has used mercenaries hired mainly from sub-Saharan Africa and the former Yugoslavia, drawing the attention of the African Union (with its Convention on the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa). Media reports have claimed that Gaddafi’s loyalists are paying Ghanaian mercenaries a colossal $2,500 per day. There are also claims that advertisements for mercenaries have appeared in the Nigerian newspapers. Ukrainian and Serbian mercenaries are reportedly fighting alongside Gaddafi loyalists, a charge reinforced by the fact that Libya used Serbian fighters to put down a civilian uprising in the 1990s.
Libya: Comparing with Other States
Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, where the militaries have a tradition of loyalty to the state and to the armed forces as an institution, the regular Libyan military has been kept deliberately weak and divided by Gaddafi, who seized power as a 28-year-old Army captain with a few hundred confederates in 1969.
The best-trained and equipped forces in the country are paramilitaries commanded by his friends and family members, who answer directly to him. At present, the generals in power can convince Gaddafi to negotiate with the rebels, but a majority of the military stands strongly behind him. In most cases, the forces are controlled by the three sons of Gaddafi — making it extraordinarily difficult for outsiders to penetrate into the command and control structure.
Current study pinpoints three groups believed to be instrumental in challenging authoritarian regimes in the Arab world: political parties, the Islamist movement, and human rights associations and other civil society organizations. The focus has been on highly institutionalized actors operating in the formal, public sphere. Opposition parties did not catalyze, organize, or lead the citizens’ movements that took to the streets in Egypt or Tunisia. They were almost missing from the scene at the outset. As for the human rights groups, their role in awakening citizens or mobilizing them into activism has been minimal, or almost nonexistent.
What, then, is to come? Amid the bloody struggle, as yet, neither the United States, Britain, France nor others are willing to send ground forces into Libya. Drones will not settle the matter. Libya’s fate is in the hands of Libyans themselves.
This still does not identify just exactly who the rebels are. There are apparently plenty of “organized” military or para-military groups in Libya, affiliated with one or another tribal factions. Yet these do not seem to be the “heroes” of John McCain. (BTW, Sen. McCain, you are one election cycle past your sell by date.)
Where did these ‘rebels’ get their weapons from? People who own stuff like that don’t just give them away. One sees them in videos, zipping to and fro, like a shootout from ‘The Wire’, only with crew-served weapons. They display no knowledge of tactics, or any training.
Libya is a former Italian colony, occupied by Great Britain after WW2. Is it possible this is not a tribal area, but a somewhat Europeanized part of Libyan urban society? Is it Western in the sense that there is a hodge-podge of politico/religio upstarts who took over an armory? What gives?
“What, then, is to come? Amid the bloody struggle, as yet, neither the United States, Britain, France nor others are willing to send ground forces into Libya. Drones will not settle the matter. Libya’s fate is in the hands of Libyans themselves.”
Dream on. If this stalemate continues, then NATO will not only look bad, it will look impotent militarily. If that happens, then nobody will fear NATO, let alone think it can defeat anybody on the battlefield. After all, if NATO can’t defeat Libya, a small country where roughly half of the population is actively fighting on your side, then NATO’s military credibility really is shot.
I’ll bet that in a month or so, the United Nations will call for a “peacekeeping force” to be sent in on the ground in Libya. This will represent boots on the ground and that, coupled with American (note I said AMERICAN, not NATO) airpower, will decide the issue one way or another. Either Gaddafi gives up, or this thing will simply turn into another Somalia, where the UN nations will simply have to run away in shame. Nope, to paraphrase the Obama administration, NATO is “Too big to fail,” so both Obama and the UN will do everything in their power to not let that happen. No American boots on the ground in Libya? Since Obama has a fetish for doing whatever the UN wants to do, don’t count on it.
My congratulations to Mr. MacCain supporting the democratic tribes who bravely oppose the undemocratic Quadhadhfa tribe of Gaddafi himself.
I am still in total awe that we actually got into this mess. We knew next to nothing about the inner workings of Libya under Gaddafi and yet our boy king jumped right in like a kid doing cannon balls in the pool.
Not unlike Afghanistan you can’t win a war against a tribal country. Calling it a nation is an insult to the definition of what constitutes a nation. The one thing that Libya has had going for it that Afghanistan never has, in recent memory, is a strongman who is/was able to keep the tribes together, albeit dysfunctional on the whole it worked.
I’d say the U.N. should curl its’ scruffy tail under its’ scruffier behind, lower its’ ears and head and go home. What a useless organization. Let Islam sort out its’ messes and help out where we can after they have buried their dead and the guns have been put on safety lock.
I was just wondering does Gaddafi ever reffer to his female body guards as “goddesses ? That would be so cool if he did, then after the war is over they could be guest stars on the Charlie Sheen Show.