Whither the Black Vote in 2016?
These numbers have definite implications for national politics. As long as the black turnout remains this high (and with Hispanic voters increasing on a yearly basis due to simple demographics), Republicans at the national level may face insurmountable odds. Democratic vote margins of 16 million among blacks, 7 million among Hispanics, and 2 million among Asian/Pacific Islanders & Native Americans would put any GOP nominee 25 million votes behind.
Could the 2016 Republican ticket make up that 25 million vote deficit with older white voters? It would be extremely difficult, but theoretically possible. Mitt Romney carried the white vote by 59-40%. Raising his share of the white vote three points to 62% would have swung Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire into the GOP column, giving Romney the presidency with exactly 270 votes.
Has any Republican presidential candidate ever reached 62% of the white vote? Yes, exactly two men have: President Nixon won 67% in 1972 and President Reagan won 64% in 1984. So it can be done. However, these were incumbents who won the two greatest landslides in the history of the two-party system dating back to 1856 — 49 out of 50 states. For Republicans to count on consistently matching those two unprecedented performances is too risky.
The good news for Republicans is that they may have other options: one is to hope that racial voting eases in 2016 and that the black turnout is lower. That is an excellent possibility, unless the Democrats can come up with another candidate who matches Obama’s drawing power among blacks. Since Obama won over 4 million more black votes than Kerry, we can properly call this an “ethnic pride” vote that will be tough for any other Democrat to replicate in the future. As Nate Cohn wrote in The New Republic:
If black turnout returns to 11 percent of the electorate and the next Democratic candidate only wins 90 percent of the black vote, there’s room for a shift of a net-4 million votes in the GOP’s direction. Whether those 4 million voters stay home or return to their Republican-lean from eight years ago could easily decide a close presidential election, especially in states like Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
An even better strategy for the Republican Party would be to find a candidate who can cut into the massive Democratic black base. Any defections among minorities would count twice: one out of the Democrat Party and one into the Republican Party.
As Jonathan Capehart reported in the Washington Post, a special pre-election poll by the NAACP showed that a Republican candidate who strongly supported civil rights would have increased the Republican vote in the black community from 3% to nearly 15%, thus helping win the election. And the same survey showed even greater gains for the Republicans if they put a black candidate on their ticket.
Who among 21st century Republicans might especially appeal to black voters?
Ever since General Colin Powell’s star turn in the Persian Gulf War of 1991, Republican Party Regulars have hoped that he would join a national ticket. But Mr. Powell resolutely refused to run for office and would be nearly 80 in 2016. (He also disappointed his fellow Republicans by endorsing Obama twice.). However, his successor as secretary of State, Condi Rice, has remained a strong Republican critic of Obama, giving a well-received speech at the 2012 GOP Convention. Might a Rice nomination for vice president offer the promise of big Republican gains?
Ms. Rice would be something of a gamble for Republicans: she’s never run for any office and is conspicuously moderate on social issues like abortion and gay rights. However, if she boosted the Republican share of the black vote to 12-15% like the NAACP survey suggested, that would add two million more votes to the GOP, thus helping greatly to carry swing states like Florida and Ohio. Some social conservatives would oppose her. But if Condi Rice can deliver two million black votes to the GOP ticket, plus surely some moderate whites in urban areas, thus tipping the balance to the GOP, that would quiet the grumblings of most conservatives.
When the Protestant Henry of Navarre converted to Catholicism in order to become king of France, he famously declared that “Paris is well worth a Mass.” Perhaps for Republicans in 2016, winning the White House might be well worth putting a moderate, pro-choice black woman on the ticket.
‘Wither the Black vote’ you ask’? I’ll tell you where the same way they went in a racist way to the USURPER to a Black candidate, if one is standing, if not then to whichever Democratic Santa Clause offers them the most ‘freebies’ as usual.
I give greater weight to the conversion of the civil rights movement to black nationalism, a move that started in the late 1960s. See http://clarespark.com/2010/07/15/index-to-black-power-blogs/. If you have time for only one item, choose White Enabling of Black Power.
So your message is the GOP needs to PANDER via Black candidates, go hand-in-hand with the ‘unbiased and neutral’ NAACP, La Raza, MehCA and other divisive, hyphenated, racist groups (who sadly are given federal/ taxpayer dollars) and their supporters?
Man, when actress Stacey Dash was vocal about her support for Romney she received despicable and vitriolic responses from the Black community.
I guess Ms. Dash should also pander to people of like-melanin to ‘be more moderate’ as well, right?
And here I thought talking to EVERYONE not as a special interest group but as a united ‘American people’ was far more dignifying and truly PROGRESSIVE. Silly me.
Sorry.. if I’m Allen West, JC Watts etc., and wanting to get my teeth back in the game I’d rather die on my feet than live on my knees.
I don’t think Allen west, mia love, and Vernon parker have to don the silken choir robe. Its possible that these 3 in particular were kneecapped by Hispanic voters who given a choice between Joe arpaio and a black conservative would vote arpaio many times over. The GOP simply needs to nurse that narrative and have it ready when Hilary/exotic or Joe manchin run in 2016. You can havethebigger tent but never the BIG tent.
“Whither the Black Vote in 2016?”
Down the same subversive rathole they’ve been throwing their votes ever since the Democrats decided to cultivate their plantations in big urban centers. Why should Republicans pay any attention to their issues? With people like the CBC representing them, and most disgracefully too, they don’t need any one else.
Whither the Black vote? LOL! Are you really clueless enough to seriously ask such a question?
1) If a candidate with a similar skin color is available, >90% will vote for him/her no matter how utterly unqualified that candidate is for the office being sought;
2) If no candidate with similar skin color is available, >90% will vote for the Democrat who promises them the most free stuff.
Blacks are the segment of the American population most prone to judging everyone and everything on the basis of race and skin color yet everyone else is supposed to be “racist” not them. Funny how that works.
I’ve always maintained that Obama was a poor representative for the American blacks, but apparently I was wrong.
In addition to all that, it’s the easiest thing in the world to stuff the ballot box in black precincts – because nobody suspects anything, and because nobody will report it even if they know about it.
We don’t KNOW what the black vote percentage would have been, in the absence of the massive election fraud that obviously occurred in 2012.
BULLS-EYE
Whither the Black Vote in 2016 -> Wither the American Dream.
Clearly, clearly, this is a demographic group that votes based upon nothing else than the relative pigmentation of the candidate, all the while hurling about accusations of racism to anyone that dares call attention to their actions.
We stand at a precipice of their making. Let them take a step over it. Let them be the pebble that starts the avalanche that is national bankruptcy.
After all, it is they who will feel the full effects of such a disaster – unless of course those in the dark blue, inner cities have figured out how to raise corn and milk cows.
I suppose that it should come as no surprise that those who rely upon government largess rather than the sweat of their own brow to put food on the table.cannot in good conscience vote against their immediate self-interest, biting the hand that feeds them.
Problem is that the government is biting the hand that feeds it.
And we’re just about ready to shrug. To hell with them.
In 2012, the black vote was especially important in Ohio. In every Presidential election, Ohio is a must-win state for the GOP; lose it and lose the election. (And in 2012, the GOP lost Ohio and the election.)
According to the exit polls, 15% of the Ohio voters were black. That was Obama’s winning margin, swamping the evangelical Christian voters who voted for Romney and who had delivered Ohio for Bush in 2004. Obama had increased black turnout compared with 2008, something that GOP strategists had thought was impossible.
And you really think that black voters are ever, EVER, going to vote Republican? Never happen. Sorry, but years of liberal Democratic indoctrination just won’t allow that to happen. Blacks in America today are mainly living on the Federal Government plantation, where Democratic leaders promise to provide them with everything as long as they continue to vote Democratic. From food stamps to welfare to student loans to affirmative action to public housing, to name but a few, the Democrats have promised the moon to blacks. Don’t believe me? Then take a look at this mind-set from a black city councilwoman in Detroit:
http://www.therightscoop.com/detroit-city-councilwoman-believes-obama-should-bail-out-detroit-because-they-voted-for-obama/
This woman understands, really understands, what the Democratic party is all about. It lives for quid pro quo, where you give the Democrats your vote and then you “bring back the bacon,” to use her “happy” little phrase. So unless you’re willing to offer these social parasites more “free” stuff, then I suggest you forget about getting their vote.
You should concentrate on getting the votes of people who are at least open to the idea of conservative values, like Asians and Hispanics. These people could be convinced to vote Republican if you give them a good reason for doing so, and that reason generally is a better economy with the potential for more jobs and financial opportunities.
Obama made it an art form of dividing this nation into competing and warring “tribes” to win this election. Sadly, we’re going to have to do the same thing. We are now engaged in a fight to the finish. Under Obama, we have gone down the road to socialism because the majority of people in this country, especially blacks, think that the Federal Government has an unlimited check book that can give them whatever they want, especially now with Obamacare. When we finally do go broke, and that WILL happen by 2016 at this rate, maybe people will be more receptive to a different political message, just like Britain was when Margaret Thatcher came on the scene. Unfortunately, I think it will take even worse economic hard times for blacks and other minorities in this country to really be convinced that socialism just doesn’t work and that when it collapses, as it did in Greece, THEY will be the first ones that feel the brunt of the collapse.
Of all the things that Obama has done to harm this country, nothing rises to the level of the harm that he has done to the reputation of black people as a racial identity group. He had the perfect opportunity to show the country and the world that a black president could be fair, logical, hard working and effective – in short – a great executive. Instead he blindly pressed forward with his ideologically driven and ill-founded agenda — damn the consequences and ignoring any evidence that his activism was/is unworkable, unfair and naive.
Some of us were hoping for great leadership and if I were black, that is precisely what would make me proud. Instead he will go down in history as a president who horribly missed his chance as the first black president to give even a moderately good accounting of himself. What a wasted opportunity.
O.J. Simpson might be out of jail by 2016, So, do you think you’re gonna like him as President?
as obama’s 3rd term v.p. maybe
Condi Rice? The next column I loaded was Fernandez’s ‘Belmont Club’ piece on starvation and black markets in North Korea where Mrs. Rice placed so much of her hopes and dreams on the ‘Grand Breakthrough’ that was always going to happen with the next round of negotiations. It’s possible, if Condi were placed as close to the seat of power as the Vice Presidency, that we could find incompetence could be as dangerous or worse than malice.
I think it was Jimmy “I’m not done f***ing things up yet” Carter who gave us the current nightmare of North Korea.
I’ll summarize. We’ll give you food and a nuclear reactor if you PROMISE to not be belligerent. Now THAT’S genius diplomatic skill. It’d be hard for anyone to clean up the mess after that stupendous feat of incompetency blew up in our faces.
jimmah did it for spite because he’s a prick and america kicked his ass out of the white house
“we could find incompetence could be as dangerous or worse than malice.”
Dude, we already know this after 6 years of Progressive control of our country. I’ll take my chances with Condi.
Don’t waste your time, you may as well go after the cat vote or the cow vote. Concentrate on disenfranchising blacks. They, for the most part, are incapable of doing the right thing.
yeah…keep wallowing in your human waste. It just makes Obama’s election victory all the more sweeter.
I cannot think of anyone out there who has a stronger case of “group think” than those of the black community. They routinely disparage conservative blacks as not being authentically “black.” I cannot imagine what on earth tells you that the Republican Party has even a remote chance of making headway into their community; “Republican” is a dirty word to them. Support for the GOP is just not ever going to happen among them. Instead, the GOP should be spending its energy on garnering more Hispanic & Asian voters. Forget about the black voters altogether.
besides skin color, 97% of black americans have one thing in common, their racism — they hate all whites and jews
oh, one other thing — they are, despite any and all studies to the contrary, utterly stupid, almost brain dead in fact
their beloved great leader and black messiah, barack hussein obama, is nothing less than their muslim slave master
when the economy crashes, as it soon and surely must, they’ll be shooting and killing each other in record numbers
One of the most important tasks the GOP has, imho, to work against the well studied industry of inciting black resentment. This is done by the left and very successfully. And could be turned around. It was a GOP president who abolished slavery. It would be worth making a list of all movies with black actors that were prepared or finished during times with Republican presidents. It is necessary to note that it was the Republican Party who had a black man in a high position (SoS) first and not the Democratic Party. It is complete nonsense that black people weren’t able to become achievers during Republican presidencies. One should remind them of that. Thomas Sowell – is he white? This artificial race divide is a tool of the left against Republicans. Blacks can be very conservative, as in the end they are American whereas Latinos from left-leaning countries might be a lost case for the GOP which makes their immigration desirable for the left.
African Americans have truly come of age in national politics.
Coming of Age generally refers to a maturation process. There is nothing mature about Black voting. It is very adolescent. I want to be an adult, I want to make my own choices, but…I need mom and dad to buy my food and clothing, and give me a house to live in. The difference is, that for the most part, we still push our children out the door to make their own living and support themselves. No one is even attempting to make Blacks provide for themselves anymore. When someone does suggest that we disincentivize welfare to promote self-reliance, the first response is to cry “racist”. I never knew that trying to help people transition from dependency to independence was a racial issue. I know tons of poor White people on the dole too. And here’s the crazy part – I expect those White people to try to better themselves and be productive too. But that somehow makes me a racist?
The Democrats have determined that a people locked in arrested development is the price paid to ensure a monolithic voting bloc. They don’t represent Black people, they just keep them in extended daycare. I don’t see the Democrats ever making any concessions here. The end will be when the inner cities are burned out ghost towns after the Second Great Depression occurs.
Obama had a chance to be something special and he blew it. He had a chance to be more then the first black president. He could have been the first black president who told Democrats to stop playing the race card. He could have been the first black president to tell blacks that they have things they need to fix. He is the only one that could have done this. As dramatic as this sounds I feel he was our best shot at ending racism. But he choose not to. Instead he played party politics and did the same kind of pandering and demonization that plagues this country. At this point he is the first black president sure, but he wasted that title. It’s as meaningful as a baseball statistic.
This country is not ready (& doubtless never will be) for a black president who would do the things you describe above. There is too much money to be made in the market of divisive racial politics. Just think Jesse Jackson & Al Sharpton.
The irony is that the most sinister racism hides behind the guise of welfare, government housing, every so-called feel-good altruistic move on the part of government for the black community has done them harm ultimately. Thomas Sowell warned against it 30-40 years ago. He warned how destructive it would be. White commie-liberals ignored him and others. Their purpose was and is to divide and conquer, to bankrupt and conquer. They have been patient, and here we are.
“the most sinister racism hides behind the guise of welfare, government housing…”
It also hides behind Planned Parenthood’s big-business abortion-on-demand program (Margaret Sanger’s dream come true in action).
No no no no no no NO! Your solution treats the symptom and not the problem. Let’s be frank here. Despite us whites always being the bad guys and racists, minorities clearly voted along racial lines. The exit polling doesn’t lie. There are many problems at hand here and until they are addressed the result will always be the same.
#1. The democrats are pandering to minority groups. They are offering them free things. They are falsely telling them things like how we will put them back in chains if Republicans get elected and that Republicans are scheming against them. They need to stop this. Not only because it’s wrong but because this line of thinking instigates racism. Blacks will now continue to not trust whites because of this false idea. Democrats are able to perpetuate racism by manipulating black voters and it is terrifying that they are allowed to do this and no one calls them out on it.
#2. The black community needs to wake up and start taking responsibility for themselves. It is the year 2012. Racism isn’t as serious an issue as it once was. We have affirmative action, an idea racist in itself but regardless it helps aid them through quotas and preferential hiring. I’m sorry but the KKK, a group founded by a Democrat hasn’t been an issue in years. Invoking them is stupid. If I was to be racist towards any black person and was caught my career and personal life would be over. I’m not saying racism is over but it isn’t a serious problem as it once was. Hell Asians were once persecuted against and they are in line to rule the world now. They need to understand that any wariness towards them is done by themselves and their culture. Their idealizing of hip hop. The way they dress. The way they act. The way they talk. The crime statistics my god. No one ever wants to talk about this but black on black crime is the #1 killed of a black person. The statistics in NY, Detroit and Chicago don’t lie. Most importantly they want to be outcasts. What I have been noticing throughout the years is that it seems like blacks go out of their way to not be “white”. This means not eating what we eat. Not drinking what we drink. Not having the same hobbies we do. Everything they do is done so they aren’t like white people. Hell, the dumbest thing I noticed is on the site World Star Hip Hop which is basically black youtube. They all record their videos in portrait view and not landscape. You ever watch a portrait video? It’s terrible. They all do it though and it seems like a retarded cultural thing. To be unlike us.
#3. This one is most important and Republicans need to hear this one too. In the end, black, white, gay, straight, man or woman we are all AMERICAN first. Our politicians should not be pandering to subgroups but to AMERICANS. This is why it infuriates me to read here that Republicans need to pander to Latinos to win next time. No. It shouldn’t be like that. Instead Latinos should realize they are American first and support anything that helps us all not just them. This is the only tag that should be used for us. As it always has been. Until we return to this idea we are doomed.
Re#3
That’s what happens when being the party in power is the most important thing, even more important than your country. It’s not surprising that the “Party first” attitude blossomed under the watch of a man who came from Party Politics Central (Chicago). Does anyone think that the Daley machine ever cared about the people of Chicago? Now that mindset has expanded nationwide. I would say the Democrats became solely more interested in what helps the Democrats than what helps the nation about 15 years ago, when the welfare rolls started to surge. Now with the help of the enabling media, the Democrats don’t even have to argue how they’re helping the nation, only that they’re protecting the dependent from the evil Republicans.
I’m a younger guy so when Clinton was in power I was a very young teen and politics did not interest me. Was he as much of a divider as Obama was? Did he play the same dirty games that Obama currently does? If so which Democrat would you say was the last one who didn’t do such a thing?
I wasn’t “young” when Clinton was in power but I wasn’t too old either. I probably would have labeled myself as libertarian independent leaning conservative. Clinton came out full of piss and vinegar, but he never advocated a Democratic party based upon dependency – at least by my take. I think things tipped right around 2000. The demonization of G.W. Bush and all things Republican. That’s when I felt the Democrats were willing to make any promise, skirt any law, and undermine any process to keep power. I also think they were (and still are) emboldened by the media, who about that time, stopped any pretense of objectivity and went full bore into advocacy journalism. That shark was officially jumped in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina coverage.
“Our politicians should not be pandering to subgroups but to AMERICANS.”
Exactly. Mitt Romney did. He said one should vote for love of the country. A few million Republican voters didn’t show up in spite of that. Really careless, really comfortable. I was very impressed by Romney’s sentence. But one thing is for sure: Obama lost more voters, so some might have turned around. Imho it is the sentence to continue with. And it is also important to remind the black community of the fact that without slavery they wouldn’t be in America in the first place. So history, even if it hurts, has good sides sometimes. Otherwise they would all be in Africa, or nearly all. Some were free to go back to i.e. Liberia. Does anybody think they are better off there? Then he should go to Liberia too. He’s free to go. The left not only tries to dissolve attachments to family and church, but also to the country. So better remind them of the country.
Just another call for yet another “winnable moderate,” dressed up by appealing to black voters. Look at the past elections since 1992, winnable moderates have not done well and the next one will not either.
I know one doesn’t compare Obama and Hitler in polite society.
Only problem, polite society is a thing of the past when you’re dealing with Obamunists, who, among other affronts to decency, laugh at urine defaced paintings of the blessed mother, invite terrorists to the White House for leftist planning sessions and leave SEALS and ambassadors to die horrible deaths in Benghazi; then lie about it, and order the mainstream media not to talk about it.
Our culture now accepts a leftist pointed head talking point puke to flap his gums at halftime of NFL games arguing for removal of parts of the Constitution. Bob Costas needs to spout off about gun control like he needs a hole in the head.
Others who embrace his traitorous tendencies are rampant in the media too, taking their marching orders from the White House to put more blacks in commercials and wrap story lines of sitcoms around the wondrousness of ObamaCare and all acts that attack the Catholic Church and Christmas because the Church is the last defender of the slaughter of the unborn and newly born whose supporters naturally vote for Obama and steal votes for Obama; the unmarried women, some of who have the balls to be in combat, but revert to their girlish ways when it comes to a possible draft. It’s called wanting your cake and eating it, too.
Certainly,our culture has become very accepting of hypocrisy.
It embraces a President who targets half of the country’s citizens as enemies. White Males.
Some of Obama’s enemies he drones to death, others he enforces death by executive order. There is no avoiding the discussion. Obama has the kind of similarities with Adolph Hitler that to ignore them is to be Polish and ignore Sept. 1, 1939. Or to be Jewish and ignore the middle of the 20th century, and the seeping hate for Israel that Obama now champions.
Hitler picked his scapegoat; the Jews. Obama picked his scapegoats: the white male, the Catholic Church and upscale Americans who have reached the American Dream. You see, Obama’s plan is not only to devalue your savings by borrowing 150 thousand dollars a day from China, but to make Americans imitate Germans after WWII who would have to bring wheel barrels of devalued German money to the store just to buy a loaf of bread.
Obama cares about the middle class like John Wayne Gacy cared about male teenagers.
How to fix America? Remove Obama which is easier said then done.
At this point, I’m boycotting Obama. What does that mean. Ignoring his illegal, corrupt actions. Turning him off when I see his big ears on TV and hear that condescending voice that to me sounds like chalk on a blackboard.
Boycott Obama. That works for me. He’s a leach that’s sucking America for all its worth. And too many Americans are too dumb to realize it.
Whither the Black Vote in 2016?
Why should I care? They’re voting for their own ultimate demise. Again, why should I care? If this attitude renders me racist, then c’est la vie.
The other way to do it is to show all the disparate groups under the Dems that they do NOT have a common cause, and that in fact the causes of some groups is detrimental to the causes of others. For instance, blacks in general are hostile to gay rights. Women have been required to subsume most of their interests (outside of sex) to promote the interests of other minorities. Illegal aliens take the very jobs young black men need in order to get their start in the working world.
It’s almost magic the way the Dems have convinced these groups that they are stronger working together. Smart conservatives can show them that they are in fact harming one another, and that some might even be better off supporting smaller-government, lower-tax initiatives.
I’m curious why you all don’t have a problem with white voters voting for white candidates as the article pointed out was also the case?
vote for whites 97%, ask the question then
AC, It’s 59% vs. 97%. Since you seem a little challenged by the concept of percentages, I’ll give you numbers. For every 3 Whites who voted for Romney, there were 2 that voted for Obama. For every single Black person who voted for Romney, there were 32 that voted for Obama. Get the picture?
Hey, I don’t vote based on color. I vote for conservatives and I vote against baby-killers.
Baby-killers are just about as anti-black as anybody can be.
Nice try at clever retorts but you still didn’t answer my question. I guess you don’t have an answer.
white voters, as the figures show, didn’t vote just for skin color, stupid
Ok, AC, are you trying to be obtuse or are you really that dense? The question has been answered. It’s called a difference of magnitude. A Black was 33x more likely to vote for the Black candidate than the White one. A White voter was only 1.5x more likely to vote for the White candidate. It’s a matter of degrees.
One more stab here. If White people had voted for the White candidate at the 97% level, the media would be declaring it a clear sign of racism. The fact that Blacks voted 97% for the Black candidate should be called racist if the media (or you) had any sense of intellectual consistency.
Add the fact that there were tons of Blacks who said that was EXACTLY why they were voting for Obama. In 2004, the percentage of Blacks voting for for Kerry the Democrat was 88%. Why the big jump from 88% to 97% UNLESS race were the factor? Only 59% of Whites voted for the White candidate, so obviously race was not a big factor in the White vote, or it might have been something like 97%.
Me thinks you are trying your hardest to tell us that reverse racism isn’t reverse racist. You prove to me it isn’t. Just saying that there were Whites voting for the White candidate, doesn’t change the Black racism charge at all. If you still don’t understand how your question has been answered yet, well you know, I can’t teach algebra to my dog either , no matter how many times I explain it. Kapeesh?
They have come of age, but a majority of blacks have not come to maturity. Race-based Populism and class envy do not make an admirable mindset.
MLK was the antidote to Black Power. Now latent and overt Black Power is trying to do all it can to scrub memory of those three words: “Content of … character”.
A majority of blacks are selling their souls for what feels good. This is not a Faustus story. The outcome will be far more dreadful.
(And blacks didn’t win this election. Barack Obama and the Alinsky Machine did.)
Sorry, but when blacks vote 95% for a profoundly un-American socialist for President, there’s no way you can say they have politically come of age.
First, they’ll have to reach the age of reason.
Having reached adult physical stature is not maturity.
Having developed independence and responsibility is.
And…will we have the patience to wait another 147 years? Or another 50? Not me.
If in 2016 we don’t set things straight or back on track….we ned to seriously consider either a 3rd party or…secession. Why not? We’re not like the nation we were even 20 years ago.
The problem with running Rice is that to the left, being “Black” is not just a matter of race, but of following the liberal othodoxy. There is nothing more the left hates than a woman or non-white thinking other than what the left wants them to think.
The left will attack Rice as being an enemy of blacks, and they’d probably get away with it.
Condoleezza Rice was, and is, an Affirmative Action incompetent. She has never been a conservative.
I fully expect Obama will get 95% plus of the black vote in 2016 as well.
Seriously, folks, there IS a guy with the right stuff –his name is VCharles Payne, and he runs his own investment house as well as comments for Fox news and business news channels. He grew up urban poor, got his education in the Air Force, and walked into Wall Street with nothing but his mind and spirit.
He’s very very conservative and is very aware of selling conservative ideas in some way other than –well, Mitt as a self-made man is a little thin compared to a Charles Payne type whose poppa wasn’t George Romney.
Payne is an intellectual who spontaneously frames the abstract principles in terms of ”what’s the behavior, here?”
He’s not just virtue with a common touch, he’s a chooser of virtue with the common touch. IOW, he knows his own image, and is seriously worried about his fellow black Americans –and seriously pissed off at the people and situations that make the conditions that make the statistics. He has no race-chip on his shoulder, he savvies the warts but has the perspective to see the warts in the context of the enormous beauty of the USA opportunity society, warts and all. IOW, he always has his eye on the ball, and knows how to tell you why you should, too. Plus he’s young but not too ypoiung, and close enough to his own core self that if you call him an Uncle Tom, he’s liable to simply knock you on yer ass, then help you up and explain that the ‘uncle tom’ idea is communist rot for suckers, and it’s working well to keep black ambition stupefied, and how that is a self-fulfilling prophecy that makes fear of being an uncle tom into what really makes you an uncle tom.
search the web –check on this guy. He’s not running for anything –but we need to draft him into politics.
Not VCharles –a typo –it’s Charles Payne.
The ultimate tragedy is that if America does fall, black Americans (unlike Asians and Latinos) will have nowhere else to go.
This is one of the worst analyses that I’ve ever seen. The author assumes that black turnout will equal in 2016 — without a black on the ticket –, what it did in 2008 and 2012 with a black on the ticket — not bloody likely. Many black voters will return to the woodwork where they have been for decades. Hence, black turnout in 2016 is likely to equal its historic figure of between 8-10%. So the 5:1 ratio of white-to-black voters the author cited for the 2012 election will be a footnote of history. That ratio will go back to the 7-8:1 ratio that it has been for most of the past 30 years.
Moreover, the GOP operatives who continue to dream of black nirvana for the Republican Party are deluding themselves. The GOP spent a $100 million reaching out to black voters in the 1980s in what was called “Operation Switch.” After all that, the black share of the GOP presidential vote was comparable to its historic 10%. As many commenters have said, blacks have been brainwashed into accepting the Welfare Plantation of the modern Democrat Party. They like their new masters, and don’t want a freedom that they would find unfamiliar and challenging. The GOP is wasting its time on this demographic. And the soon-to-be-announced new black Senator from South Carolina — Tim Scott — will do nothing to attract more blacks to the GOP, as with Clarence Thomas’s appointment to the Supreme Court, or Michael Steele as GOP Chairman. Blacks are the equivalent to political “fool’s gold” for the Republican Party. And it’s time that RINO consultants and party operatives got the memo.
The real, unstated goldmine opportunity for the Republican Party is in the vast, untapped, white working class voters who, for whatever reason, choose not to vote. This recent election saw 80 million eligible voters abstain — at least 2/3 of whom, or 54 million — are white. Consequently, the GOP should get over its minority fetish and apply the “Willie Sutton” rule to voting. Asked why he robbed banks, Willie Sutton said, “That’s where the money is.”
Had Romney gotten a mere 6-7 percent of the 54 million whites who chose not to vote, he would be president now. To achieve this Romney would have had to run a very aggressive, “Southern style” campaign that was politically nuclear, and the RINOs running his campaign were not going to do that. In addition, Romney would have needed to state an agenda that would attract working class voters, e.g., a change in the GOP’s open-borders position on trade, which is tantamount to unilateral disarmament. We’ve lost 30 million manufacturing jobs in the past 35 years or so, and for what? So people can have slightly cheaper consumer goods made first in Mexico, then China, and now Vietnam!!! An American job is worth more than slightly cheaper goods, most of which people don’t need anyway.
Even Democrat shill Ruy Teixeira has acknowledged the potential power of the white working class voter, as from this article dated June 2011 in the New Republic — http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/90241/obama-election-2012-working-class-kerry?utm_source=The+New+Republic&utm_campaign=d4cb9da619-TNR_Pol_062011&utm_medium=email#. Romney gave lip service to a message for this untapped goldmine of voters, e.g., blasting China for cheating on trade and manipulating its currency, but in fact Romney was a very flawed candidate on many fronts, i.e., too wealthy, a Mass. moderate, and had the ball-and-chain of RomneyCare that undermined his ability to attack ObamaCare. In truth, Romney was never going to reach the white working class voters. To make it worse, his record turned off millions of the conservative base, causing them to stay home on election day.
On the Hispanic front, a myth has been created and nurtured by GOP operatives like Karl Rove that we must cater to this huge demographic. It is time for some cold water to be poured on the myths surrounding the Hispanic vote.
First, as with blacks, the likely lack of a minority on the top of the Democrat ticket in 2016 will result in many Hispanics not voting. Second, though 15% of the national population, one-third of these are illegals, and therefore are not eligible to vote. Thus, the relevant portion of the Hispanic population is 10%, and their actual turnout is historically several points below that. Yes, their numbers increase slightly every election cycle, but nonetheless will likely equal no more than 8% nationally in 2016.
Third, the best GOP numbers among Hispanic voters, i.e., Bush 43′s alleged 44% take in 2004, has been refuted by a recent academic analysis showing that Bush, in fact, got 35% of the Hispanic vote.
Fourth, recent demographic data reveal that the birthrate among third-world women, including in Mexico, has plunged. The data is the same with Hispanic women in the U.S. Therefore, the Hispanic demographic time bomb that has been so discussed and overwrought in the past 20 years appears to be much ado about nothing. Yes, the Hispanics that are in the U.S. already will continue to have a disproportionate share of total births, but the figure won’t be anywhere comparable to what the predictors have claimed for the past 20 years.
The bottom line is that the white share of the national electorate will likely return to the 77% figure that it has been in recent cycles, but was only 72% in 2012. If the vast majority of Asians who live in CA and NY are discounted, then that figure would approximate 80%. Consequently, merely looking at the demographics would point to a Republican victory in 2016, assuming that a RINO, e.g., Christie, is not nominated. Nonetheless, to succeed in the distant future, the GOP must become the party of the working class if it is going to tap this goldmine of “virgin” white voters who are looking for a reason to vote. This change of tack by the GOP from supporting crony-capitalism and bank bailouts that benefited Wall Street at the expense of Main Street and the average voter would also attract some minority, working-class voters.
I disagree that blacks will retreat back to indifference toward voting. They have tasted the power of success and will be invigorated to continue the process.
You’ve eloquently described why the GOP is dead. And we, the majority, need to place the carcass on a burning pyre of old, wishful, outdated thinking.
It’s past time to abandon the GOP for a 3rd party that preserves traditional, really conservative values.
Don’t count out Michelle Obama in 2016.
I think your first paragraph is spot on over future elections — probably more systemic than all at once.
As to your comments about the 80 million registered voters who didn’t vote. I suspect, though I have no way of knowing, that most of them represent that portion of voters who are tired of corrupted politicals and corrupted everything else. A good portion of them may well have been from the GOP camp who did not endorse the platform put forth by the evangelical Christian ‘social’ movement inside the GOP which has decimated the party.
As to your comment concerning the loss of “…30 million manufacturing jobs in the past 35 years or so…” Between labor unions and union scale throughout the entire mfg chains and the government, circular inflation has destroyed the value of the dollar, especially the value of a dollar in a society that already lives on extreme excessive credit. Twelve dollars today has the same buying power of $1.43 in 1956.
Thanks for a data rich comment!
I should clarify what I meant by “eligible” voter. I meant in many if not most cases non-felon adults — people of age but without any detriment keeping them from registering and voting should they choose to do so.
A substantial majority of the 80 million figure that I cited — roughly 1/3 of all American adults — are not currently registered to vote. Many of these have likely been registered in the past, but have dropped out for some reason, perhaps for one of the reasons you cited. It is these, along with those registered voters who abstained in the 2012 election, who the GOP must target in future elections.
“It is these, along with those registered voters who abstained in the 2012 election, who the GOP must target in future elections.”
I have yet to see evidence that the Pubs are talking about this. I gather they must think all these people are ensconced in the Dems’ camp.
One point overlooked is if the black community as a voting block is disenchanted with the economic advance in their lives not materializing as promised by Obama, may shift their support to other minorities such as Hispanics or Asians, not quite ready yet to vote for a white candidate. The party should begin courting these groups more vigorously.
Yae…that’s why 100% of blacks in DC voted for Obama…..and the same for Philly. It matters not what their “economic” condition is…he’s black…he’ll take care of them. After all….it’s “my people” he’s concerned about.
“Over 16 million blacks voted in November of 2008, with virtually all of them going for Obama. (The networks’ “adjusted” exit poll gave Obama “only” 95% of the black vote, but both the Gallup Poll the day before the election and urban black precinct studies indicate that Obama won closer to 97-99%.”
And this was the day that racism…reverse racism became accepted, mainstream and institutionalized. Republicans better understand the mood of the majority of Americans….not blacks who will never ever cast a vote for them in any significant proportions…nor hispanics who don’t share a common surname with a candidate like the 7 we offered up.
Even a man like Alan West or Herman Cain would have never soothed the inner calls of racism they they dutifully responded to. ( and IMHO were more “authentic” blacks with transparent records of achievement unlike the “Savior” Obullcrap ) Instead of offering up token “minorities” for VP or S of S….the R’s better consider that the entire country is now split almost exactly in half. Not unlike the pre civil war days. And solidifying the white vote to counter the illegal vote and the throughly racist vote of blacks….is the only solution.
It’s time to end the CBC, LaRaza and a man like Obama’s campaign of “African Americans for Obama and Hispanics for Obama.
Unfortunately…the “R’s” have no spine to stand up and say loudly…if you can do it…why can’t we?
I agree with much you say; however, Blacks aside from being a voting block for their belief in a person who will uplift their spirit as did MLK, still have the basic human drives and needs to advance their living standards and provide stability for themselves and their families. Welfare doesn’t meet this criteria, and unless Obama can deliver more than a “bandaid” for the ills that plague them they will look towards someone who will whatever color or race they may be. I do not believe the often touted theory that the majority of blacks are content to do nothing but collect perks for their survival. Black pride means exactly that!
“Welfare doesn’t meet this criteria…”
It certainly must be acceptable. We now have 3 or more generations that know and accept nothing more. It pays more in gov’t subsidies today then for way too many to get an actual job.
“and unless Obama can deliver more than a “bandaid” for the ills that plague them they will look towards someone who will whatever color or race they may be.”
For four years Obama’s record points to causing more injury to race relations than he has ever done to stop it. It’s obvious racial discord and animosity works for him.
“I do not believe the often touted theory that the majority of blacks are content to do nothing but collect perks for their survival.”
As I stated in the beginning. How naive can you be?
“Black pride means exactly that!”
It means getting over on the “man”….spreading the wealth, demanding more “reparations” and keeping the power. Oh…and demanding that someone else bail them out for their years of liberal failures that have destroyed many urban centers under their rule.
It “Black Pride” were really pride…men like Alan West, Herman Cain, JC Watts, Thomas Sowell, Condaleeza Rice or Clarence Thomas would have been the answer. Yet they’re mocked, insulted and shunned by the majority of blacks….aren’t they?
The “Poverty Pimps” like Jackson and Sharpton have more damage to the self image of blacks prior to Obama, and have become prosperous off their backs. Keeping blacks in a welfare mindset works for them and when the black realize this they will be able to raise their self-respect out of the “gimmie” mentality.
Change is difficult. Until the GOP clearly and repeatedly articulates why its vision is better for Black Americans and until the party is more welcoming to Black Americans, nothing will change.
So, you’ve got the choice. Give up, or try. So far, we’ve failed. Quit or keep trying? There aren’t any alternatives.
Yes, Mark, change is difficult but it is imperative that the old way of relating to each other must change. The bitterness that as developed systemically is negative and destructive to all. As you say, there aren’t any alternatives.