Where Is the ‘Red Line’ on Iran?
The IAEA report shows that the controversial National Intelligence Estimate of 2007 that concluded that Iran had stopped nuclear weapons-related work in 2003 is false. The IAEA clearly states that Iran was working on technical expertise related to a nuclear warhead into 2004, and the regime ended all communication with the inspectors about the topic in August 2008. The regulatory agency found that Iran has been conducting tests related to warhead reentry, nuclear triggers, and a “spherical implosion system” that forms the core of a bomb.
The Guardian reported in November that Iran had been working on a sophisticated “two-point implosion system” that allows for the miniaturization of a warhead so it can better fit onto a ballistic missile. The regime has also been testing solid-fuel, two-stage ballistic missiles that could deliver such a weapon, and the military has practiced using such weapons in an electromagnetic pulse attack that could potentially fry all electronic components for thousands of miles. In other words, even if one pushes back the red line to this final stage in order to expand the window of time the West has, the regime is progressing along quite nicely and while it is unclear when it will perfect such delivery capability, it is certainly drawing near.
The key question is which of these three benchmarks is considered by the Israelis to be the red line that forces military action with all of its consequences. Ironically, as I’ve written before, it is very possible that the Iranians are deliberately trying to cross that red line so as to provoke a limited strike that gives them an excuse to pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and announce that they will begin building nukes. For Israel, it’s a Catch-22 of the deadliest kind and it is the hardest decision any leader of that country has had to make.
The only way to prevent this horrid scenario from being actualized is for the Obama administration to take tough measures as suggested by members of Congress. Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz point out that the threat of sanctions on Iran’s energy sector is already causing banks and major companies to back out of investing in Iran. The Chinese are trying to come to the rescue by building refineries, but those will take years to finish. Senators McCain and Lieberman have proposed legislation forcing the president to publish a list of human rights violators in Iran so they can be personally sanctioned. Senators Brownback and Cornyn have presented the Iran Democratic Transition Act that paves the way to support the democratic opposition and actively support a transitional government. These bills must be immediately passed and enforced.
The Israelis are preparing for the worst. It is no coincidence that Israel revealed a fleet of unmanned aerial drones that can fly for an entire day and reach Iran shortly following the regime’s latest announcement. Only immediate, concrete, aggressive action can convince the Israelis to wait. Should such a strike commence, the international outcry against Israel will be misplaced. It will be the lack of action by the U.S. and its allies that, more than anyone aside from Ahmadinejad and Khamanei, will have forced Israel’s hand.
Those in the know in Israel understand that it is NOT primarily the drones/ weaponry which is brought to the surface that Iran has to fear,but rather that which is hidden from view.
Israel’s leaders are notoriously a fractured lot, but NOT when it comes to the existential threat emanating from the Iranian Hitlerite regime.
Rest assured the ‘bomb(s)’ in Israel’s basement have been hidden, have been non-threatening for decades, to be used as the ultimate deterrent weapons. However, our leadership are convinced that the mad Iranian leadership will NOT be deterred by MAD, quite the contrary.
Therefore, it is not a question any longer of if, but when. Whichever weapons Israel has in its arsenal which will save our people from extinction will be used. The blowback/fallout of such actions will pale in comparison to a nuclear armed Iran. After all, a vaporized Israel is NOT going to be the sacrificial lamb for all those who wish us ill and our leaders understand this black and white reality.
It is long overdue that Israel realize it can no longer bully their way around in the middle east and around the world ..Using the USA CIA ,Mossad so forth plus boatloads of money to destablize nations they dont like ! Zionism is the root of what caused the USA to be attacked on 9/11 . The muslim population constantly see the USA rubber stamp anything that Israel does and the USA as hijacked by zionist jews . Those muslims are correct in this belief. anyone investigating this question sees all control in the USA is in the hands of jews… one must logically come to that conclusion ..jews are less than 2% of US population yet control all media and finance , policy etc . lets face it .. a stranglehold on USA policy .Israel must learn that others in the middle east have the right to nuclear weapons . Iran must also know that they will be held responsible with that nuclear status or face off with extinction.
It is insanity to use preemptive theory of war .Former Pres Bush found himself made a patsy by the office of special plans setup just in time for his election . This office was run by jewish agents .. wolfiwitz, feith , pearl … with the sole purpose of drawing Bush and the USA into the war in Iraq by pumping phoney evidence about WMD , curveball and so forth as the pretense to get Saddam ..I am sick and tired of seeing USA’s kids fight, get wounded and die in these pathetic wars for Israel .. Let Israel fight their own battles .Israel now find themselves out of friends in the world because they have screwed just about every nation . If Israel does attack Iran unprovoked … Israel will NOT survive .. By the way …
sources are now saying Iran already has nuclear weapons .
Vince Vance and the Valiants had it right: Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!
The maddest notion ever to be broached in international politics is that one can negotiate with a force willing to be exterminated if that’s the price for achieving its aims.
Iran’s rulers have shown every indication that they’re willing to accept the obliteration of Iran as the price for the obliteration of Israel. As a lapel button I treasure says, “If you’re willing to die, you can do anything.” What’s left to negotiate?
Israel must strike — and the Israelis know it.
I don’t think Isreal will overtly bomb Iran for the simple reason that Israel probably will not be able to destroy all of Iran’s nuclear capabilities in one air strike (or even two, for that matter). Israel could severely damage it, but not destroy it. Would that outcome be worth the retaliation that would undoubtedly come from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself? When Israel bombed Hussein’s nuclear power plant in Iraq in the early 1980s, there was only one major target that could easily be seen from the air. Not so with Iran, which has most of its nuclear program placed underground or inside mountains. So what’s the point of attacking if you can’t destroy all of your enemy’s nuclear assets? No, watch for increased covert operations inside Iran, more aggressive attempts to destabilize the Iranian public, and the random act of sabotage. This fight will be waged (and won) within Iran, not by attacking it from the air. Regime change within Iran is the only thing that is going to save Israel.
Adina has it all on the money.
Only a loser would attempt to attack Iran’s nuclear capabilities. That should have been done 7 years ago. Now it is too late – four years too late.
The bottom line is that Tehran and Qom must be vaporized, and we in Israel must be the ones to unleash OUR weapons upon the idiots in Persia. We can no longer rely on the Persian people to save themselves from destruction. They cannot ditch the military dictatorship that governs them. In order that we may live, millions of Persians must die. It is all that simple.
All those American “leaders” running to Israel understand this and are trying against hope to convince our leaders to be sacrificial lambs. The trouble is, they have nothing to offer against obliteration. And they know it. Obama doesn’t care. That explains Clinton’s statements that America cannot stop Israel is it wishes to attack Lebanon and HizbAllah. That also explains Gates’ arm-twisting on Obama’s behalf. Obama and crew don’t give a damn if we all die here.
Other American politicians are not sure what to think. Jewish Americans, as usual, are spineless cowards. Whether we live or die, they face obliteration in America when the American economy finally implodes – and they are blamed for it.
I believe in the Living G-d of Israel. WE will live.
Or, Isreal could salt a couple of very special munitions with cobalt and use them on the Iranian sites. Nobody would be able to approach the site for decades.
It’s not “too late” and all of Iran’s nuclear facilities do not have to be destroyed in one fell swoop. We can knock them out one at a time at a pace we choose.
Also, all of them need not be destroyed. Knocking out a few key facilities (and re-striking, if needed) would prevent them from building a bomb.
I am not sure but I think Israel will strike simply because they have no choice. We are quickly reaching the third stage of Churchill’s comment about fighting….you will fight without hope of victory because it is better to be dead than be a slave.
And the idiots who run Washington in particular and the West in general are working overtime to assure that the end result will be as bad as possible.
Alas we are stuck at stage one.
I don’t know if Israel has a bomb big enough — a one megaton bomb would do it. If they do, launch that up to about 250 miles directly above Iran and detonate it. The EMP would take out Iran’s entire electrical infrastructure, as well as all electronic command and control devices. No radar, no radio, no computers. No electrical power for all those centrifuges. And it would take them months if not years to recover. No need for bombing multiple hardened underground targets. No direct casualties other than taking down all commercial airliners over Iran. Just one EMP. The 21st century weapon of choice!
I have written this article on my blog about two weeks ago. I think it contains some interesting thoughts.
http://hyphenatedamericans.blogspot.com/2010/02/conclusions-are-obvious.html
# 9 Sunsword-now you’re cooking……keep up your train of thought and extrapolate from there.
Iran’s leaders are a bunch of cracked pots that hate Israel so bad (and the thing is, they don’t remember why they hate so)that they are willing to have the entire middle east become one giant sucuide bomb in order too try to destroy Israwl
Its funny to see all these delusional Israelis and Americans talk about attacking Iran…it will never happen…and the reason is economic.
1. Countries like China and Russia will not allow their interests in Iran to be damaged or destroyed by a vassal state like Israel. Like Ron Paul once said about Israel: “You take the king’s shilling, you must listen to the king.” Israel is a vassal state of the United States, it won’t do a thing.
2. China won’t go along with any sanctions because it wants and needs Iranian oil. HOw are you going to replace or even come close to meeting China’s energy needs once the oil in the Persian Gulf is cut off.
3. People here seem to forget, that in order for Israel to “fly” to Iran, they will have to cross other countries first. They can either go over Iraq, wich as a sovereign nation will object, and since the US military is responsible for maintaining Iraqi airspace, it would be very interesting what would happen. Also, the fighters have to get back right? Israel does not have the capability to conduct an aerial raid on Iran. Iran is simply to large. Or they can fly over Turkey, and anyone who believes this is a possibility hasn’t been reading the news about Turkish Israeli relations lately.
4. If people here on this blog really believe that the American Elite and leadership structure will sacrifice their interests and the Interests of America for Israel, then they are sorely mistaken. People like Orin Hatch, Ron Paul, Pat Buchanan, and many others who are America First people, have influence as well. Its not all neo-cons who have a religious dogmatic base for their beliefs that live in DC.
5. Lastly, You can’t deny a country like Iran the right to nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Nowhere is it written that the Jews are the only people allowed to have Nuclear weapons. Also, people that think Israel will use a nuclear bomb on Iran are even more delusional, in doing so, Israel would spell its end automatically. Who is to stop Pakistan at that time in nuking Israel. Who is to stop Russia from giving Iran a nuke and letting them go at it. The possiblities are endless, but they all have one thing in common: Neither Americans, or Europeans, or Russians or Chinese give a rats ass about Israel. And the sad part is, Israel because of its reliance on those countries, can’t do a thing.
SZ,
When all you have to lose is your own life, and nobody gives a rat’s ass about you, you do one of two things. You allow the world’s thugs to just kill you – or you strike hard, and mean and fast, and you don’t HAVE to give a damn about what the world will do or say – they don’t give a rat’s ass whether you live or die – remember?
That is the point we Israelis are approaching – driven there by scum like the American government, and the many many European successors to Nazi Germany.
Since the world doesn’t give a damn whether we live or die, if we care what they think at all, we are extending undeserved mercy to the scum. We are rapidly approaching the point where we no longer have to give a damn about what the world thinks – and for my money, the faster we get there, the better. It will allow US to clean up some of the garbage in the Middle East, so we don’t live in a stink-hole of Arab and Persian oppression.
Remember the Warsaw Ghetto revolt. Jews armed with virtually nothing held out longer than the Poles could. We are not armed with nothing anymore.
Get me a match for that nuclear cigar, son. I need a smoke real bad.
# 13 – SZ – You are so full of animus towards Israel you can’t think straight. The fact of the matter is that flying over airspace is just one of several ways to decapitate Iran. Do you even know why Israel acquired FIVE Dolphin Submarines, all retrofitted for Israeli specific nuclear warheads? Do you think they were bought for show, perhaps to troll the seas for sport?
The fact of the matter is that NO one, including the isolationists and Israel haters in the US, can’t do a damn thing to stop Israel from using their subs, nor from detonating an EMP. Why in the world do you think there has been a constant ferrying of Washington mucky mucks to Israel? Do you think they are interested in our beaches, or, perhaps they are fearful that THIS time Israel won’t obey their orders?
The other fact of the matter is that Israel is the ONLY power in the world to have destroyed 2 nuclear sites – in Iraq and Syria. Granted they were single hits, but our nuclear subs are our ace in the hole, whether you like it or not!
Israel has become so power hungry and impressed with itself that you consider yourselves royalty .. How many people must die to make sure no one in Israel gets hurt .It looks like Israel would kill everyone on planet earth to save themselves ..Your talmud spells out clearly what Israelis think of non jews.. former leader Sharon said in 2001 that “Israel tells the USA what to do” when questioned by a reporter
The game is up .. No longer the world citizens have their eyes closed in regard to how Israel really thinks. Israel has burnt too many people in this world
The USA policy on Iran has been consistent for the 30 years since the USA “stabbed the Shaw in the back” and brought in the Totalitarian Dictators, that parade as religious people, to rule Iran. Yes, the USA policy is to keep the dictators of Iran in power at all cost for the specific purpose of guaranteeing the continuation of the “nice long lasting war and sell lots of weapons” (c 1991 Getty)
If you think I am wrong then you know you are brainwashed!
I’ve feared for quite a while now that something really, really bad was coming, and wondered if I was just being paranoid. Now I know it’s all but inevitable, and I blame that weak sister in the White House and his lapdog congress.
SZ – “5. Lastly, You can’t deny a country like Iran the right to nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Nowhere is it written that the Jews are the only people allowed to have Nuclear weapons.”
You went from a run-of-the-mill idiot to the height of ignorance in 5 easy steps. What is obvious is that you are a Jew hating Arab.
Why do you oh Ishmael want to kill your half-brother Isaac? Because God has chosen Isaac over you since you are an illegitimate bastard child of Abraham. This half-blood is the basis for your generational hatred of the Jews.
If you think “economics” will trump Islamic eschatology in this matter you are ignorant of theology and the history of mankind. But I doubt you are ignorant of the facts and your “economic” smoke screen is nothing but a ploy to support your equally ignorant statement that the Iranian cult in power will be nothing more than a harmless little fuzz ball with a nuclear weapon.
To Adina #15: Hasten that day that you describe, hasten that day!
To SZ #13: You sorely underestimate God’s chosen people! I just hope the IDF has all their coordinates straight and put the Hagarines in Persia back to the Stone Age where they belong!
this is the most pathetic site I have ever come accross. the dynamics of this site and the people who market it are extremely smart… very smart people writiing blogs for evry uneducated republican. this is a bad and dangerous combination…
Mr. Ryan Mauro: I am from Iran and I hate the Iranian govenment… you know that this is not the 1950′s where we or anyone else can go and bomb the hell of out of another country. but what is so disturbing here that you know your readers do not know this and you rile them up. you should be ashamed of your self. #18 siad it right on the money… look Ryan:
first of all there is no way Israelis can go and bomb Iran and get back in one peice
the Iranians most likely have a few thousand missles aimed at Israle. they would love nothing but an Israeli attack.. the will take Haifsa off of the map.. think about it….
For the West there is no red line. Iran will get nuclear weapons, and some Arab states have already stated their intention to get nuclear weapons if Iran gets such weapons. How long do you think a MAD stalemate will hold off a nuclear war in the Middle East? A nuclear war in the Middle East will cause a precipitous drop in oil production, leading directly to a precipitous drop is world wide agricultural production, thereby causing the mass starvation of billions. With each passing day I see this possibility as more probable.
We’ll react immediately after the mushroom cloud can be seen by the surviving Israelis.
How about Israel finally stop suppressing Palestinians and giving the people in the open-air prison called Gaza more rights?
I agree that the rulers of Iran are idiots and suppressing the people there but i also think that Ahmadinejad’s statements toward Israel have been overhyped and used for propaganda.
Don’t forget Israel is a military state and next to USA one of the few biggest military industrial complex nations and rely always on conflicts and the so called war on terror in order to keep the M.I.C going. And look how many billions in military aid Israel received from the US since many decades, around 100 billion $.
Israel too has nuclear warheads they don’t admit, yet the west is tolerating it but not so with Iran. Do you really believe Iran would use a nuclear bomb on Israel? How stupid are the people?
The minute that happens Iran itself will be wiped off the map.
Why doesn’t the U.S. bring freedom, prosperity and democracy to North Korea? Oh yeah because they have nuclear warheads.
Matt
Israel has nothing to say about human rights in Gaza or Hamastan. If you want human rights ask Hamas for them. Otherwise, Israel is a sovereign country and not responsible for Hamastan’s human rights situation. You want to see an open air prison, look at Israel surrounded by 800 million hostile Arabs. Now put that in your salt shaker and season your own dish.
23. Because every time the Palestinians get more freedom, they use it to start a war. We are afraid Iran is as insane as it seems to be. We are afraid they may actually WANT Israel to annihilate them, if it means they can take Israel with them.
Israel’s red line is the threatened possession of nuclear weapons by states that threaten the destruction of Israel: eg., Israel’s bombing of Iraq and Syrian reactor complexes. The Americans have had no red line, not with Pakistan, India, or North Korea. The last American red line was Cuba, the Cuban embargo and missile crisis, but Obama is not JFK, and Bush had to put up with an intelligence insurrection over Iran by pandering progressive liberals. Israel can’t afford one or two bombs getting through. American’s have a wider margin for error; besides, the mass casualty incident provides American justification for retaliation levels that could include total war. Whether Russian or Middle East Oil, Europe’s red line is energy, and the suppliers call the tune for the party.
To my Iranian reader,
I am not advocating “bombing the hell” out of any country. If you read my past columns, you’ll see that I question whether Ahmadinejad and Khamenei don’t WANT a limited Israeli strike so as to justify withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and announce they are building nukes in 6 months.
And you’re right–there would be tremendous retaliation by the regime. It’s a horribly tough decision for the Israeli leadership.
Read a post at DEBKAfile, ”U.S. Backs Off Speedy Iran Sanctions Promised Israel” – No country’s leaders can trust the Obama administration. Hell, even Britain was just thrown under the bus re: the Falkland Island dispute with Argentina. There can be no doubt that appeasement of Iran & Syria is setting the stage for a large regional war. Israel will have no choice but to mount a preemptive military strike not only against Iran but also Syria & Lebanon.
There is huge unrest in Iran, and the population is unhappy with the regime in charge. However, for Israel to depend upon regime change from within is a gamble, and it could take years. In the meantime, the current regime could finish building their nuclear weapon and use it. As stated before, they have expressed the idea that they are willing to die for their cause if it means the annihilation of Israel. Does Israel dare to wait for Iran to implode from within? Should Israel wait for Iran to develop a missile system that could deliver the nuclear weapon, or could/would they give a nuclear weapon to a terrorist group to smuggle into Israel? A nuclear missile launched from Iran would be detected by the USA and the blame placed upon Iran. A smuggled in nuclear weapon … who do you hold accountable?
Iran imports 60% of their refined oil products. They have only one oil refinery. Gee, it would really be sad if that oil refinery suffered a major industrial accident that destroyed it. (There was a major accident at a power plant in Connecticut recently.) And if it were a “major industrial accident”, who do you hold accountable?
I’m afraid 28.Terry is the voice of cold reason and logic. The U.S. may withdraw from an adult role in the world, but we’ll still pay the price for what happens in our absence. Where nuclear weapons and oil are concerned, there are no regional wars. Not only will nuclear fallout contaminate 4 continents, the economic fallout may trigger the world wide depression that we seem to be moving closer toward every day.
“SZ” just sounds like all the op-eds “Sueddeutsche Zeitung” (commonly abbreviated “SZ” over here and considered to be one of Germany’s more influential newspapers) has done on behalf of this topic in the past couple of months. Here, we have all ressentments rolled into one and it really comes with all the toppings at the height of the “zeitgeist” – “anti-americanism” and “anti-zionism” included as phenomenae of a general contempt for humanity. True idolatry of the culture of death, this is, and a master piece of terror-apologetic German “journalism” (honî soi qui mal y pense…)! “SZ” can justly consider him- and/or themselves the ideological arm of the fascist regime in Teheran – they’ve earned it.
The situation with Iran ought to be of no concern to the United States. Let Israel fight her own wars.
is there anything the obumbler is not afraid of? the guy is too scared to stop smoking. weak, creepy, empty. what a shameful embarrassment for us to entertain this fool.
he imagines himself in charge of israel’s policies vis a vis the arabs. truly, what is this guy smoking.
the israelis continue to innovate and prosper even while surrounded by despotic warlords, murderers of their own people and perpetrators of sickening atrocities.
israel will decide as a sovereign nation as to its security and strategies. enemies should not even consider parking there. if so, the arabs will be dead a long time, and the persians, buried with their oil wells under a radioactive nogo land, ghosts without portfolio.