Where Does Santorum Need to Win?
If Gingrich collapses after Georgia on March 6, the natural conservative majority among Southern Republicans should make Santorum the favorite over Romney in the March primaries in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, plus his rural strength should help him in the North Dakota, Alaska, and Missouri caucuses (where he’s already won the non-binding primary).
But the South and Farm Belt do not make up a majority of GOP delegates. Romney will run up big delegate counts in coastal states like New York, Massachusetts, and California, as well as in Utah and Idaho which both have high Mormon populations. On that basis, and due to Santorum and Gingrich splitting his opposition, Romney still is the odds-on favorite. But even if he doesn’t win the nomination, Santorum may garner enough delegates to press for the second spot on the Republican ticket, which could make for a hot time at the GOP Convention in Tampa this summer.
To clinch a majority, Santorum will also need to score in the big “industrial” states, which are a mixture of urban industry, suburbia, and farmers. This will be tested very soon: the key states to watch are Michigan (February 28), Ohio (March 6), Illinois (March 20), Wisconsin (April 3), and Pennsylvania (April 24). Romney should win his former home state of Michigan; Santorum should win his home turf of Pennsylvania. (If Romney loses Michigan, he’s in real trouble.) Wisconsin is winner-take-all, so its importance will be magnified. Ohio has an outstanding track record in choosing presidential winners — missing only in 1960 and 1944 in the last century. But if Santorum can do well with suburbanites there, the Buckeye State could key an upset.
Watch Ohio, Wisconsin, and Illinois: those states should tell us whether Santorum is a real contender or just the latest pretender to be ground down by Romney’s money machine.
While Santorum may be appealing to the ultra-conservative, he will have problems with moderates and independents on a general election. just listen to your co-workers who are fair-minded, and hear what they say about him (forget the ultra-liberals because they think he’s extreme anyways, and extremists don’t like those they perceive as extremists from the other end).
Romney is a fiscal conservative who balanced the Massachusetts state budget every year he was in office; didn’t increase taxes; and, vetoed spending programs proposed by the 85% Democrat-controlled legislature. He also fought against same-sex marriage, is pro-life and a strong supporter of family and traditional values. The fact that he rescued big corporations and the US Olympic Committee and created thousands of jobs, is not only icing, but also the assets we need in a leader to get America to economic and international prominence once again. Santorum can only speak about social conservative issues — Santorum is one-dimensional, and his whole career has been in Washington, DC until he was soundly defeated in 2006 in a humiliating, unsuccessful bid for his Pennsylvania Senate seat as an INCUMBENT.
The reason I want Romney is that he is the best on Illegal Immigration. His plan on it is identical to that of serious anti-illegal Conservatives. The others bluster about a fence but they chicken out on electronic hiring verification that actually moves Illegals out. Romney is surprisingly knowledgeable about it and doesn’t seem to have any fear of business special interest pressure. The others, and notably Santorum, chicken out when you press them on particulars the Chamber of Commerce doesn’t like.
No way of knowing how good he’ll be on that once sworn in, but the others have already shown that they won’t be, so Romney it is.
People today have looked into the jaws of massive far-left liberalism with Obama and they may just be ready for a guy like Santorum. No candidate is perfect. We know that by now. But if we are looking for a deep conservative who is willing to carry the banner of conservatism no matter what the future may bring, Santorum may just be the man for the job. Is he perfect? No, but he’s A LOT better than Romney, who is nothing but Obama light. Under Romney, we will all get to the poor house, only slower than if Obama was in office. And Romney will NOT be able to attack Obama over ObamaCare because of RomneyCare in Massachusetts. And if this country has any hope of surviving, Obamacare needs to be repealed, and soon. If Newt can’t get his act together for the job, then Santorum may be the only game in town.
Why do you go by Libertyship46? I am curious about it. Are you an old WWII vet that rode on a Liberty ship back in 1946?
Every time I see you post, which I always read, I think of the USS Liberty that got attacked in 1967, but then this morning, I realized, NO, it is a Liberty ship he’s talking about, mass produced in WWII for convoys to Europe.
So what gives over there, Mr. Libertyship46?
X Contra, I took my name after the Liberty Ships that were built during World War II. The “46″ stands for my age when I started my own blog. The Liberty Ships were the unsung heroes of the war, bringing vital cargo to all corners of the globe to supply our armed forces in their struggle against the Axis nations. The war wasn’t won solely because of them, but it could not have been won without them. Yet you hear nothing about those ships today and I doubt few people even know that they existed. So I’m trying to keep their names, as well as what they did, alive for future generations of Americans. As a little sidebar note, the Merchant Marine and the US Naval Armed Guard (the US Navy sailors who manned the guns on board the Liberty Ships) suffered the highest per capita losses of any branch of the armed services during World War II. Yet we hear nothing about the sacrifices these men made for the war effort. Also, there are still two Liberty Ships that are afloat today as museum ships. One is in San Francisco and the other is in Baltimore. I urge everyone to go see them and support them. It’s the least we can do for what these men went through during the war.
I live in Michigan and will vote for Newt or Rick in a few days…I keep going back and forth.
I love the way Gingrich stands up to the media…saw a little of this in Santorum on CBS/Charlie Rose the other morning…would like to see a lot more. Obama’s biggest advantage is that half the country pays no attention to what’s going on and follows the mainstream media’s lies. So many, especially women, vote the way “The View” tells them. This must be countered.
This fact must be overcome or we will lose in November. Romney will never take on the MSM…he’s too “educated” and “mature” to do that. He plays ball. As long as the MSM defines the GOP message as being anti-woman, and gets away with it, we will lose regardless of the candidate.
Why can’t we do a better job of punching back?
The answer to your question about anti-women blathering is Palin, but she is not running.
I agree that Romney is weak and will not fight. How the heck can Ann Coulter support this guy? Seems mysterious to me.
I hope this isn’t the Kiss Of Death for Romney but I have voted for him twice – in 1994 against Kennedy (although I support Kennedy’s political issues I just could not support his leaving a young girl to drown) and against Shannon O’Brien. The Republican Party has been lurching so far right it probably doesn’t matter who they nominate they will lose but nominating anybody but Mitt would bring on a calamity they would never recover from probably for decades unless they have a complete makeover.
Demographics are changing this country and it will not be kind to the Republicans or their political ideology. Hispanics will be changing many states that were once Red and in 2016 that could put Texas in play and if the Republicans lose Texas – bye bye
Romney will at least have big money behind him to limit your losses – Santorum will have what? Bible thumpers?
We’ll take our chances.
People keep saying this kind of stuff that you have, but I do not buy it. Sounds too much like country club snobbishness from rich Democrat types; boy howdy, have I seen a lot of that, when I was a Democrat office holder. President Gutsy sneers it out a lot with remarks like clinging bitterly to religion. What a bozo.
Lots of people seem very motivated to keep Catholics and other Christians out of public view — a new kind of ghetto. For public office, public commenting, dirty Catholics need not apply unless they are clean and articulate and wearing a lapel pin for Planned Parenthood.
So I have to veto your idea over there, Flaming. It does not synch, except for maybe in the NOW drum circles.
“Hispanic” is lefty code for “illegal immigrant from Mexico”. That is the only demographic that Democ rats can hope to hold.
Did you forgot the dead and the felons
I am not a big fan of Santorum, but at least I will hold my nose and pull the lever for him. I cannot say the same for Romney. I will not vote for another lesser-of-two-evils pre-packaged RINO sold to us by the connected and elitist power brokers. Never again.
Will Santorum, should he win, actually try to govern as a conservative and more importantly give voice to conservative principals? I can’t say, but at least there is a chance he will. I expect Romney to do what he has always done, pander to the Lib media scum and then turn around and lie about it to the people who voted him in. I do not think Romeny is an evil person or even a bad person, but he is through-and-through a RINO who begins any negotiation with Libs by first accepting their premises and then completely dispensing with any conservative principals ASAP, all in an effort to *prove* to the Lib media scum how “reasonable” he can be.
Good description of Romney’s weakness, Mr. ED. The flaming liberal above you would love Romney to self-censor in order to play nice and appear reasonable.
One thing that Gingrich got right is withdrawing his consent to be manipulated by the lame stream media. If Santorum can withdraw consent, he might catch on.
The problem that must be overcome is Obama and his Leftist dogma. I have been terrified ever since the Far Left took over the Democrat Party that a quasi-Marxist like Obama would be elected. We must remove him AND HIS DOGMA from power. Either Santorum or Romney would do–Romney is far more conservative than many think and is just as conservative as Santorum. Further both of them understand the evil of Leftism (PS Romneycare was a conservative solution to free medical riders and was written and sponsored by the Heritage Foundation).
Don’t say that to loud because Obamacare was also modeled after the Heritage Foundation as well as the 1993 Republican alternative to Hillarycare. But because the Republican have gone so far to the right they have lost their way.
Heck Obamacare didn’t even go as far as Nixon’s proposal in the 70′s
Inflexibly dogmatic and hardhearted? Democrats? Surely you jest!
i don’t understand why people assert that santorum is a “deep conservative” or a “true conservative” or whatever other positive adjective they can muster up to put in front of conservative. except for his stand on abortion, there is little in santorum’s voting record that would qualify him as a conservative, from earmarks, to voting for huge deficits, against right-to-work laws; to the way he’s earned a living — off the govt and now off crony capitalism.
i sure wish someone would explain their views rather than just make unsubtantiated statements.
the same goes for saying that romney is not conservative. if conservatism is viewed as fiscal responsibility and competence (my standard), then romney is the only “true” conservative in the lot.
another question i have about santorum, as i did about obama, is what about his experience shows that he is competent and prepared to be president? two terms in congress as a senator doesn’t do it for me. at least gingrich was speaker (although that didn’t turn out too well).
that’s a large part of why i support romney. at least he’s done something else with his life than merely be a politician. he worked for a living and was successful at it; he was a successful governor (turning a deficit into a surpluse while lowering taxes 19 times); he turned the olympics around in that very fragile time after 9/11 (the first post-9/11 international event).
Hi, jrterrier,
Please take advantage of the “shift” key at the beginning of each sentence. This is a blog, not an iphone. Your post is almost unreadable.
The left will say that Santo is in the Mafia.
People are mistaken about Romney. Some reliable Conservatives have gotten to know him and they say he is far more solid than he comes across on TV. That’s just the persona he has, we’ve all known somebody like him, he cannot talk angry in the way we’d like. Instead of “doing angry”, he makes mincemeat out of the opponent’s lies, and then laughs. Obama will be helpless when faced with someone like that, someone why doesn’t have Obama’s sleazy nature. He will show Obama for what he is, just by standing next to him.
There is no one more pissed by the doings of RINOs than me, but people are mostly wrong their evaluation of Romney. Santorum is not a Conservative, he’s a “whatever” and has never shown himself to be reliable for us in office.