When Must Huckabee Decide?
A funny thing is happening on the way to Republican nomination. Mike Huckabee is leading the average of Republican presidential primary polls and is getting the best results against President Obama in head-to-head matchups. However, he hasn’t decided whether he’s running or not.
Much speculation suggests Huckabee’s personal finances will factor in his decision. His work on Fox News and ABC Radio as well as his speaking engagements provide Huckabee a healthy income, with which Huckabee has been able to purchase a beautiful new home in Florida. A presidential run would mean giving up high-paying gigs to campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire.
However, in an interview with the AFA Focal Point program, Huckabee made clear that finances would not be the determining factor in whether to run or not, pointing out that his first run for office had cost him a comfortable living in a nice house, and the possibility of taking that step again won’t deter him. One big challenge is that Huckabee is enjoying his work on Fox News and doesn’t want to leave for a campaign that won’t be able to win.
Huckabee has raised the concern that Obama could be very difficult to beat, a reasonable concern given America has only once since 1896 given a party control of the White House and then turned them out in the next election. However, with the economy still in trouble and only 23% of the American people saying the country’s on the right track, the possibility of a Republican victory seems far more likely than would be typical.
Whether Huckabee is using a checkbook, scales, or poll numbers to weigh his options, many pundits and activists have taken to warning the former Arkansas governor that the time to decide is coming very soon. But when must Huckabee decide? The answer may be sooner than Huckabee would like, but perhaps later than pundits demand.
Some of the pressure on Huckabee has nothing to do with the current campaign, but rather how previous campaigns have been conducted. In the last three election cycles, the campaign for the presidency has been super-compressed and front-loaded. Last year, the Iowa caucuses were held on January 3, with most of the delegates being awarded by Super Tuesday in early February. Expectations that Huckabee should have announced his candidacy yesterday are based on the 2008 process.
However, since 2008, the Republican Party has taken steps to correct front-loading and push most primaries back to March or April, with Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada voting in February. The 2012 Iowa caucuses are set for February 6, which would be the latest that they have been held since 1996. Since the Iowa caucuses in 2012 will be held about the same time that Super Tuesday was held in 2008, some adjustment of expectations would be in order.
In the 2000 presidential campaign, George W. Bush announced his candidacy for the presidency in June 1999. Two months later, he proceeded to win the Ames straw poll, the Iowa caucuses, the Republican nomination, and then the presidency. Given Huckabee’s strong grassroots ties in Iowa, he could make a decision to run in mid-June and be able to win the Iowa straw poll.
However, does Huckabee want to win the Iowa straw poll? According to IowaRepublican.com, Huckabee’s Iowa chairman from 2008, Bob Vander Plaats, has advised Huckabee not to enter the presidential campaign until after the straw poll. This may seem counterintuitive. Huckabee’s second place finish at the Ames straw poll solidified him as a force in the 2008 campaign.
But waiting to announce until after the straw poll may be a wise move. Huckabee is no longer an unknown governor in desperate need of momentum, but a nationally known figure both in Iowa and the nation. Were Huckabee to compete for the Iowa straw poll and not win, it would be a devastating blow. For a candidate with credibility and a strong base of support, spending limited resources on winning a non-binding straw poll would make as much sense as a major league baseball team spending $10 million extra to get the best record in spring training.
After each Iowa straw poll, many campaigns fold due to their failure to gain momentum coming out of the straw poll. Candidates like Lamar Alexander and Dan Quayle in 2000 and Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback in 2008 dropped out soon after Ames. By not being a candidate until after the straw vote, Huckabee would avoid getting into skirmishes with candidates who will not be in the race come caucus night. He will also be better able to attract their supporters.
Some national observers, such as two columnists for the Daily Caller, warn Huckabee dallies at his peril, invoking Fred Thompson’s late-starting campaign as a warning against waiting too long. The comparison between Huckabee and Thompson is off the mark. Thompson’s campaign suffered numerous stops and starts, with rumors being floated that Thompson was about to announce several times between mid-May and September, which frustrated many potential supporters and made many question his seriousness. In addition, Thompson supporters oversold him as the next Ronald Reagan, and party activists found him failing to meet these lofty expectations. National Review’s David Freddoso summarized the problem in 2007: ”the demand for Thompson appears to outstrip the supply.”
Huckabee, on the other hand, is a known quantity. Voters who lean towards him in polls are doing so because they like Huckabee, not necessarily because they imagine him as Reagan the second.
Consider also the example of Bill Clinton’s late announcement in 1992. The reason Clinton won the nomination despite waiting a long time to announce was because the Democrats had a lackluster field and lacked any candidate that truly excited voters. This could be an apt parallel for the 2012 contest. If candidates like Tim Pawlenty or Haley Barbour don’t catch fire with the conservative base, Huckabee could make an entrance in late August and still be able to claim the nomination.
Huckabee does face risk in waiting. A candidate could catch fire and block Huckabee’s entrance. However, right now, this possibility seems a long shot. At the moment, despite the rumblings of the pundits, time remains firmly on the side of Mike Huckabee.
See also “Huck Fine?” at the Tatler.
Social conservatives should do whats best for the country and stay out of the way for now. When the house is in fiscal order again, perhaps they can make a comeback.
That day will never come if we social conservatives remain silent! There is no hope of saving this country from this fiscal crisis but by repentance. Do you imagine we can continue to kill off a quarter of our population before it is even born and still balance the budget? Besides which, how do you propose to elect fiscal conservatives without the votes of the social conservatives? Do you think we’re stupid? That we’ll tolerate being treated like red-haired step-children, or that it is sufficient to pander to us but never do anything?
Just lying helps nothing. Social conservatives doesn’t give a hoot about fiscal responsibility.
How have I lied? Truly, a fiscal conservative who is not a social conservative is not a trustworthy person, for often we elect so-called fiscal conservatives and they abandon their principles as soon as things get hard. That’s how they earned the nickname “fishcons.”
Furthermore, you never answered my question about why social conservatives should vote for someone who does not want to do anything about the abortion holocaust or how you could win without our votes.
I’d be fine if he put it off forever.
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
I agree, I will not vote for Mike Huckabee, he’s a populist who doesn’t support fiscal conservatism by any stretch of imagination.
I don’t have much against Huckabee, I just don’t see him as president. Well, then again, I certainly didn’t see Obama as president and look what happened! Anyway, I think Huckabee would make a better Vice President. He seems steady and has good conservative values, especially when it comes to the federal budget, but I just do NOT see him as the leader of the nation. Just my opinion for whatever it’s worth.
Your 1896 reference is incorrect. Jimmy Carter took over from the Republican party in the 1976 Election and was tossed just 4 years later in 1980.
That would be the one election since 1896, so he’s still accurate. As far as Huck goes, this is one Arkie that won’t vote for him. His clemency decisions show poor judgement.
Huckabee can’t win a general election for POTUS. He will remind everyone of John McCain.
If we could come up with someone who combines the clarity of a Sarah Palin, the balls of a Donald Trump and Chris Christie, and the looks of a Romney, we’d have a landslide.
That would be John Hoeven,new U.S. senator from North Dakota. He fits tour bill to a tee!
Your answer is right in front of you and you can’t/won’t see it. Sarah Palin obviously has the clarity (as even you admit). She also has the balls of Trump and Christie combined and she’s certainly better-looking than Mitt Romney. 50 states landslide?
Huck is a social liberal. That means he’s in favor of discrimination against whichever group he deems should be denied equal rights.
Also, when he was Governor of Arkansas, he prohibited trucks from parking on the ramps on the interstate highways (to take mandatory breaks), but also blocked the construction of new truck stops due to “environmental concerns”.
Sure, Huck’s a nice guy, very personable, but he’s not presidential material.
Agree completely. It’s sad that he doesn’t know that he’s a progressive, or maybe he does.
I used to say, “Huckabee’s the kind of guy I’d like to invite to go to church with me, then hang out Sunday afternoon eating BBQ pork, drinking sweet tea and watching NASCAR. But, I wouldn’t vote for him for President.”
I won’t say that anymore after his vicious and inaccurate attack on Glenn Beck (of whom I am no “fan”) for outing Huck for being the progressive that he really is.
All one needs to do (and it won’t take 5 minutes) is to look at Huck’s record as AR Gov. and his support of the government sticking its nose where it doesn’t belong (our and our children’s food, for example).
Maurice Clemmons.
I’m counting on Huckabee running–I’ll work for his campaign, donate all I can, and keep explaining the facts to people like snork. This country needs him.
Um, no, we don’t. Unless you think “we” need an even bigger gov’t. Huck is a tax and spend Republican.
What facts can you produce that say that Huck did not commute the sentences of murderers, who went on to murder again? None. This is a personal issue for several of my friends and neighbors in AR. One time is bad enough, but his clemency decisions show poor judgement. We can’t elect another person that has consistently shown poor judgment. Correction, we should NOT elect another person that has consistently shown poor judgment.
Fact 1. When Maurice Clemmmons case came before Governor Huckabee to review, he was a young African American man who had been imprisoned for several years having been sentenced to more than 100 years for nonviolent crimes at the age of 17. He showed every evidence of having both of rehabilitation and improvement upon maturity. You or I would have agreed that his sentence was unjust and should be reduced. It was the right decision for the Governor to make.
Later, a parole board set him free on parole. The parole board made that decision. Huckabee was no longer in office when the series of errors both in Arkansas and in other states released a criminal whose mental illness and violence had become evident.
You assume too much on my part. I didn’t think his sentence was too much and I don’t remember his crimes being “non-violent.” Also, I didn’t buy his religious conversion. Plenty of Arkies didn’t, but tell yourself what you have to. The fact is, he wouldn’t have been up for parole if Huck didn’t commute his sentence. Poor judgment.
I just listened to Huckabee’s attack on Glenn Beck, and Beck’s response on the radio. I have not liked Huck since 2008 and his mindless attack on Mitt Romney during the primary. Huck, once a Baptist pastor, stated he didn’t know the Mormons were Christians! And he did indeed team up with McCain to knock out Romney whom I believe was and still is a better candidate than either of those Bozo’s were and are. Huckabee should stay with his entertainment program and grit his teeth when criticized for his mistakes during his governorship. Alarmist or not, Glenn Beck has done more to educate America on America and our history, and the dangers of the Obama administration than Huck, or any other program out there.
Claudia – I’m not sure that I took your comment as you may have meant it, but Mormons are NOT Christians because they deny one or more of the basic Christian doctrines (that there is only one God, Jesus is God in flesh, forgiveness of sins is by grace alone, and Jesus rose from the dead physically, the gospel being the death, burial, and resurrection of Jesus), Mormonism denies three of them: how many gods there are, the person of Jesus, and His work of salvation.
AlmostaCowboy is almost a fool. He knows nothing about my church and acts like less of a Christian than most Mormons I know.
So, correct my mistakes, Tom. I have stated 3 facts about Mormon doctrine. I’m sorry you think stating facts is not “acting like” a Christian. You seem to less about Mormon doctrine than “most Mormons I know”.
1. There are many gods, (Mormon Doctrine, p. 163).
2. “Therefore we know that both the Father and the Son are in form and stature perfect men; each of them possesses a tangible body . . . of flesh and bones,” (Articles of Faith, by James Talmage, p. 38).
3. If it had not been for Joseph Smith and the restoration, there would be no salvation. There is no salvation [the context is the full gospel including exaltation to Godhood] outside the church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, (Mormon Doctrine, p. 670).
yea thats why the full name of the mormon church is “The church of Jesus Christ of later day saints”
Do you believe every single thing you read, Gr1zzly? If so, then you must think that the Democratic Republic of Congo is a virtual utopia and that “socialism” is a dating service.
Huckabee, while very likeable, is very liberal. He would have to get past his boatload of pardons of felons; one which killed someone. To Huckabee, stay at Fox, enjoy playing your guitar (one made in Little ole Morton, Ill), and earn your megabucks. Our country will not survive any more “progressiveness”.
Someone? Try four cops.
Huckabee “didst protest too much” when Beck called him out on being a Progressive. A lot of these Republicans think that no one could possibly accuse them of being a Progressive, since they don’t have a “D” after their names. But as Angelo Codevilla described so well, there has been a deep, harmful and continuing Progressive tendency among the Republicans for many years, which has been clearly visible in many policies of both Bush presidents, and can be seen with Huckabee.
Some in the conservative “Smart Set” turn up their noses at Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, but as Claudia USA wrote about Beck, both men have done tremendous service in informing us about the facts, keeping us grounded and reminding us of the big ideas that we need to fight for. Its time for the likes of Krauthammer, Kristol, Noonan, Lowry and Will to take their snobby blinders off and see that we’re in a fight to the death for the future of the country. Treacherous, Progressive politicians and namby-pamby suck-up commentators are no longer acceptable as our leaders.
Huckabee makes a good talk show host and he should keep doing what he’s good at. Now we need Romney to go away and take Romney care with him, and while someone needs to make sure Jeb Bush stays in Florida. bush,Huckabee and Romney RINOs all.
Decide? Hopefully never. If he actually gets nominated it would be almost as bad a 0gabe, possibly worse.
We do not need another “compassionate conservative.” I tolerated the compassion of Bush since he was the best we could get; Huckabee is considerably less likable and utterly unreliable on the fiscal issues.
Someone pointed out a long time ago that Huckabee is really a pre-Roe v. Wade conservative Democrat. While I might be persuaded to vote for the AntiChrist against Obama (wait, Obama just might be the… :-/ ), I will not vote for Huckabee in the primary.
Mike Huckabee is NOT a progressive! He is a man who understands that not ALL of what the Democrats want is bad….unfortunately the commenters on this site cannot understand that.
As far as Huckabee’s pardons, clemencies, etc. I want to tell you the truth about them. Huckabee granted 1,044 of them when he was Gov. for 10 1/2 years. The law in Arkansas states that the Governor is required to look over all the requests from the convicts. Huckabee did that and there were thousands that he had to check during his tenure. 768 of the above mentioned pardons, etc. were from people who had already served their sentences. They were on welfare because they couldn’t find a job with their records. They requested a pardon so they could get a job. Gov. Huckabee decided it was better that they work, pay taxes and get off of the welfare the State of Arkansas had to pay, so he granted their requests. Out of the other 276, only two cases have been shown to be a problem. The judge and parole board requested the clemency for Clemmons who at 17 yrs. old was sentenced to 108 years for committing several robberies (which did not include having a gun, killing someone or raping someone) which was a much bigger sentence than even convicts got for killing someone. Huckabee sent the proper paperwork through the normal procedures asking if anyone objected to Clemmons being given a clemency. Huckabee received nobody objecting, so he signed the paperwork and sent it to the parole board who made the decision to release Clemmons. After a short time, Clemmons broke his parole and was put back in jail in Arkansas. The prosecutor at the time failed to make up the paperwork against Clemmons, so he got out of jail. If the paperwork had been done, Clemmons would not have gotten out of jail until 2015. There was no way Huckabee could have known what Clemmons would do in the future (killing those 4 officers in WA). It was not Huckabee’s fault in this situation.
Beck is the person who attacked Huckabee, not the other way around. Huckabee was defending himself. Do any of you wonder why Beck did this? He supports either Romney or Huntsman and wants to take down Huckabee because has won the most polls in the last year (yes even more than Romney). Huckabee has the best record of beating Obama too, so Beck is just trying to put out false information to help his candidate.
DO NOT PRESUME to tell me or anyone else what we do or do not understand
I don’t know if you were responding directly to me; obviously a lot of posters share my assessment of Huckabee.
But for the record: I did not say Huckabee was a progressive.
I said he was a *compassionate conservative*.
We’ve already one of those, remember? And remember how that turned out for conservatives?
A Compassionate Conservative that’s a SoCon Democrat right?
“compassionate conservative” = “progressive”
What part of AR are you from? I don’t remember it going down like that. There were plenty of indicators from Maurice Clemmon’s past (wikipedia has some good gouge on his courtroom behavior) that should have said “DON’T COMMUTE HIS SENTENCE!” But, like most of the other people applying for pardons and clemency, Maurice played the religious reawakening card and despite objections from many citizens. There shouldn’t have been a chance for him to break parole. He should have stayed locked up. I have some liberal friends, and the one thing we can agree on is that Huckabee is not fit to be president. I guess releasing assholes back into society so they can do harm to my friends and their family was worth it to get the support of a few church members in key districts.
Hucky attacks himself…
One of his pardonees killed 4 police officers here in WA.
No way, no how and at no time will I support this (yet another) pathetic power craving pol.
Just to set the record straight all of what the Democrats want to do is not merely bad, some of what they want to do is evil.
Bwahahaha — yess, yess, my pretty! The EVIL Marmons are trying to TAKE OVER THE WORLD! It’s Mormons vs. Baptists, right?
You’re being suckered into the Jell-o fight. Infighting keeps Obama in power.
Beck isn’t pro-Romney or pro-Huntsman; he’s just calling it like he, and a lot of Tea Partiers, see it. Identity politics is what got us this president, and don’t we JUST LOVE IT? What some people don’t understand is that there are two sides here: one is evil, the other is stupid. Progressive Democrats seem to have the corner on evil, progressive Republicans are plain stupid. When I find that I agree with Barack or Michelle or Rahm or Hillary (okay, that actually hasn’t happened), I re-examine and dig deeper and find that one or the other of us has made a big mistake. Mike Huckabee doesn’t seem to get it.
What we need is a candidate with BACKBONE, a new face like Chris Christie or Allen West. When all the apples in the barrel are spoiled, you go pick one off the tree. (Good advice from Sean Connery in The Untouchables…)
Huckabee also urged the GOP to take the deal on the recent budget showdown and fight another day. After the Tea Party success in the 2010 elections, the GOP promised 100B in cuts, then 60B, agreed to 38B which the GAO revealed was only 353 million.
We DO NOT WANT another RINO, or another recycled establishment candidate, or a hypocrite who supports the liberals with donations, or a Romney care candidate, or a Karl Rove candidate. Where is the candidate who will toss the PC BS and make the case for conservative ideals? The GOP had better get their act together fast.
That’s right! We DO NOT WANT another RINO! We DO NOT WANT someone who’ll actually GOVERN (governing = making any compromises whatsoever with Dems, Independents, RINO’s, etc)! We want someone who’ll huff and puff and stomp their feet and totally prevent government from ever getting anything done!! EVER!!!
Palin 2012!!!
“Huckabee does face risk in waiting. A candidate could catch fire and block Huckabee’s entrance. However, right now, this possibility seems a long shot.”
Maybe that is what he is hoping for. If no other candidate catches fire, he could ride to the rescue and victory with minimal campaigning. If another like minded (80% agreement) candidate catches fire then Huckabee and keep doing what he appears to enjoy and root from the sidelines.
I like the Bible as much as anybody, but I want to be goverened by the Constitution, not the Bible
this snake oil Hucksterbee salesman needs to go back to Arkansas and open a chain of donut shops
Yes, yes, yes. We can take ourselves to the Bible without politicians, but as a nation we need to do two things:
1) Get Obama the heck out of office
2) Start following the Constitution again and get our fiscal house in order, knowing there will be great pain in doing this.
Huckster ain’t gonna take us there. I don’t know who will, but somebody has to.
If either of those two things do not happen, we are finished. We cannot withstand another four years of their destructive economic policies, class warfare, cultural Marxism, environmental/energy policies, union thuggery, etc.
Huck and the rest of the GOP retread candidates are wasting their time — Trump wins the Republican nomination big time and then crushes Obama. The Huckster along with all the rest, including Palin, are part of the open borders / free trade wing of the Republican Party. Trump is an outsider who wants to put America and Americans first.
Trump is resonating because he has a pro-American message and is coming out against our suicidal free trade policies to hostile powers, especially Communist China. Suddenly, the so-called conservative pundits at Fox and talk radio are attacking him relentlessly.
Amazingly, El-Rushbo has said that Trump’s idea of a 25% tariff on Red China is not conservative. Trump needs to school Dubai-Ports Rush that tariffs were enacted by our Founders to protect America’s sovereignty and independence. Protectionism is conservative whereas Judas free-trade giveaways, especially to communist regimes, are anti-American, liberal and Marxist.
El-Rushbo and his ilk are phony conservatives and economic globalists and Donald is exposing this.
Rush is a phony; Trump is genuine.
Uh-huhhhh … in what universe?
Back away from the Kool-Aid, son — back away slowly …
>Trump wins the Republican nomination big time and then crushes Obama.
What color is the sky in your world?
Nice man, sort of, Fox should hire him to replace Beck now that they’ve fired Glen and want to go ‘vanilla’ – Beck is certainly not vanilla.
I doubt Huckabee has really strong religious convictions, in any case. Dubya Bush was also supposed to be ‘very Evangelical’ but you folks were also just chips in a game designed and managed by Karl Rove.
Real world = lots of deceit, not much honesty, unfortunately. Certainly in politics.
The Reverend is a religious bigot of the worst kind. He does not now nor will he ever understand that when one becomes the president of the US you become president of ALL the people not just the ones who think and believe as you do.
I wouldn’t vote for this man to be the sewage treatment inspector much less president.
Donald Trump is a egotistical, reality show bully.
Couldn’t we find someone with some business experience, some government experience and at least a passing acquaintance with integrity. Surely there is someone out there. Somewhere (are those crickets chirping?)
Surely we can do better than Huckabee. It’s a shame we have not, yet.
(Of course, Herman Cain and Allen West would be an “interesting” ticket.)
{^_^}
As far as Huckabee saying we should accept the offer by the Dems and not shut the Government down, just remember that Pawlenty and Bachmann said the same thing BEFORE they changed their minds within 24 hours. I guess they saw that the Tea Party would be mad and not support them. Huckabee knew that we don’t win all the battles, but aims at winning the war.
Huckabee had 1,044 pardons,clemencies, etc during his 10 1/2 yr tenure as Governor of Arkansas. Out of that total, 768 of those were for convicts who had ALREADY completed their sentences and were out of prison. They were on welfare and couldn’t find a job. Gov. Huckabee felt like it was better for the State of Arkansas that they get a job,pay taxes, and get off of welfare, so he pardoned them. Out of the other 276, only two prisoners releases were people that went on to kill others. Clemmons was a 16 yr old black boy when he was sentenced 108 yrs. for several robberies (he didn’t use a gun or kill anybody). Huckabee by law in Arkansas had to review each request for pardon or clemency which he did which was thousands over his tenure as Governor. He saw that the judges in Arkansas gave the black people a much longer sentence than white people for the same crimes because they didn’t have the money for a good lawyer. The judge and parole board requested the clemency for Clemmons. Huckabee sent out the required and customary paperwork to others and there was NO objection to Clemmons being given clemency. He was freed by the parole board and in a short time, Clemmons broke his probation and was arrested again. The prosecutor failed to make up the required paperwork, so Clemmons was freed. If that paperwork had been done, Clemmons would have been in jail until 2015. It was not Huckabee’s fault Clemmons was released and he couldn’t have known that he would kill others in the future. Huckabee’s religious convictions had nothing to do with him letting out these people unless you consider the racism and unfair treatment the blacks were getting at that time in prison.
Huckabee will be a great President. He was raised poor and governed one of the poorest states in the U.S. You cannot compare the circumstances he had in Arkansas with other Governors. The state had a $200M deficit when he took office and the Arkansas Supreme Court court mandated that the schools (rated 49th) be improved. When Huckabee left office, they were rated 9th in the country. The roads were terrible and the people of Arkansas voted to have their taxes raised to get the roads fixed. He had to work with a 95% Democratic legislature in Arkansas to get anything done and they overrode his veto many times.
How long can Huckabee wait?
Hopefully forever!
Wasn’t Huckabee pro amnesty for illegal aliens? That’s a huge issue for me. I also consider his attacks on Romney’s religion unforgivable. I do expect him to run because of the encouraging poll numbers alone. He has had so much exposure on Fox in the last two years that many people think they know him. This man would be a disaster as president, IMHO.
Huckleberry Hound is a RINO, anyone supporting this glib charlatan needs to be booted in the head. We need a hard core fiscal conservative willing to show unwavering principles to right decades of liberal/RINO policies which have damaged the country. Social policy will right itself once the government hog trough of money has been dried up.
At this late date the Repubs are offering people like Huckabee, Pawlenty, Romney-how depressing. Obama will have one if not two billion dollars of Soros’ money-are they kidding with Huckabee. Who will take this to heart- the kind of people sitting in the White House?
http://potterwilliamsreport.com/2011/04/23/romney-pawlenty-gingrich-goodbye-our-beloved-country.aspx
he proved who he was in 2008 – hopefully he’ll never insult conservatives again by running and pretending to be a conservative. if it came to him and the greatbambino – it would be a coin toss as to who would be more destructive.