On the contrary, everyone, including the Israelis, is backing off drawing the disturbing conclusions. The intelligence officer who briefed reporters off-record refused to draw even the most elemental conclusions from the incident, even negating claims by major Israeli public figures that the incident was an ambush. He admitted that the Lebanese army had an increasing number of Shiites rising up to the rank of officer, and that even if they were not Hezbollah, many of them had family in Hezbollah. Israel so wants this arrangement with UNIFIL and the LAF to work that they play down their own case.
The intelligence officer even tried to suggest, without dotting the i’s, that this was a rogue incident. He characterized it as an escalation of the “spirit of the commander,” a belligerence that has grown in the past weeks, especially since a Shiite commander took over the brigade that patrols this section of the south. He alluded to a “Levantine attitude” (by which I assume he meant macho behavior), leading Lebanese soldiers to make often imaginative hand gestures at the Israelis (“do you bite your thumb at me sir?”).
Of course sniper fire aimed at a commanding officer in the background (first shot) and RPGs (after a lull) hardly seems constant with escalating the kind of chest-thumping described by the Israeli officer. And the most recent remarks from the Lebanese officer present at last night’s parlay with UNIFIL and an Israeli general make it clear that this came from the top. But theories on just what set of interests set in motion the aggression remain speculative.
In the end we have a grave incident which illustrates more clearly than anything that the Lebanese, and Hezbollah in particular, can begin a war any time they want. And that one of the main forces intended to hinder Hezbollah’s belligerence has been deeply compromised from below, from above, from both directions.
Indeed, the most widespread speculation is that Hezbollah, via sympathetic members of the LAF, provoked the incident to distract from approaching revelations by the Special UN Tribunal for Lebanon — perhaps even arrests — that would reveal major Hezbollah involvement in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005.
Nothing better illustrates the cultural differences between Lebanon, the closest thing to a “democracy” Arab political culture has so far produced, and Israel, the only Western democratic element in the Middle East since the end of World War II. Lebanon, with a thick web of religious, clan, and political solidarities and hostilities, takes war as the norm. Even public statements reflect the kind of tribal “us-them” rhetoric that fosters conflict. Said the commander of the Lebanese army of the incident: “Your brave stand in the face of the treacherous enemy … proved to this enemy that any aggression on our people and land will not pass without a price.” He told this to soldiers in the south.
So Hezbollah, one of the most religious and most powerful of the factions in Lebanon, risks a war with a more powerful neighbor, in order to distract attention from embarrassing, potentially explosive, revelations about its Machiavellian deeds. They can do so because Israel, rather than explode at the slightest attack, has a high tipping point for violence.
This would, on some level, represent a fairly common initial relationship between democracies and “strong horse” political cultures: they provoke, the democracy shows restraint. What’s so unusual about this conflict is the way the media at best enable and at worst stoke the most bellicose elements by serving as the mouthpiece for their propaganda. It apparently teems with people East and West, for whom journalistic standards are sacrificed in an inexplicable rush to present the warmongers as oppressed underdogs.