What Is To Be Done About Nuclear Iran?
Click here to watch the second part of Roger’s interview with Israeli ambassador to the United States. (View Part One here.)
A transcript of the entire interview appears below:
MR. SIMON: Ambassador Oren, thanks for taking time out of your busy schedule for PJTV. And before we get into the real subject of this discussion on Iran, I can’t resist asking you to comment on the events yesterday at UC Irvine. Was it really as bad as Judean Ramallah or not as bad?
AMBASSADOR OREN: First of all, pleasure to be here, Roger. As to what happened yesterday in UC Irvine, I was giving a presentation on the state of US Israel and Israel-Middle Eastern relations, and a group of several hundred students kept on disturbing me, calling out rather, you know, various curses and expletives, none of them deleted, and basically, violating the most fundamental law on an American campus, indeed, outside of American campus in this country, and that’s the right of free speech. And from my perspective, it was a great squandered opportunity for them. Here, they had an opportunity to hear a different perspective, perhaps not a perspective they agreed with or like, but — and a chance to exchange ideas, and that, I think, is what universities are about, but they’ve blocked this. And unfortunately, this has happened at several campuses to several Israeli speakers, but not only to Israeli speakers. Last week, down at Georgetown campus, General Petraeus was subject to the same type of interference. So I think it’s the beginning of a trend that we have to watch very, very carefully, a trend to sort of bring the Middle East, where there is no freedom of expression, onto American campuses. And I think we have to be very vigilant, indeed, to prevent that from happening.
MR. SIMON: It’s not just American campuses, though, unfortunately. My nephew is a student at the London School of Economics, and the same thing happened there. And he wrote about it for Pajamas Media. But let’s move on to Iran, here.
And I want to, first of all, thank you, as I said earlier, for a great weekend, because I really enjoyed reading very much a book I’ve had on my shelf for too long, The Six Days of War, aboutthe Six Day War, June 1966, “June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East,” which is really an enthralling read, and I don’t say that just to compliment you because I’m a writer myself, but the — what I got during reading it, your head can’t help going to the situation right now, even while reading this, because we seem to be at the brink of something terrible. Do you see parallels…
AMBASSADOR OREN: All the time.
MR. SIMON: …from the period?
(Transcript continues on next page.)
Very interesting Roger. Been waiting to hear it.
I like the first part of the interview better; not the quality of the questions asked – but the content of the response.
I’m not sure I agree with Michael Oren’s assumptions about the Green Party of Iran and how they would react to proposed sanctions. I recognize Oren can share no national secrets, but the hypothetical of military interaction no different than the hypothetical of estimating how the citizens of the Green Party will react once they experience personal pain. Hope he is right.
Think it was eternal wisdom of John Wayne who once said, “Waiting is good for them, and bad for us.”
Gad…make that military intervention #1. Quit listening to the sport’s channel while I type.
Sanctions will do nothing to stop the nuke program, because it is in the hands of Iran’s military. A military that supports terror, and gets it’s funding in so many ways illegal, and legal with fake companies.
We waste our money in the Middle East trying to change, or improve Iraq and Afganistan, and getting those rich who hate infidels.
Bring our troops home, and secure our borders deporting those who hate this country. Contain those who support terror while cutting off their supply lines. Let Europe protect themselves for a change, or charge them money.
Don’t forget to kick out the UN. Let tham stay with the CHICOMMS.
‘Sanctions’ are the wishful thinking and proverbial straight-jacket ‘negotiations with nut-jobs’ that is the same old conundrum: Rules can and will be broken by those who could give a flying f*ck about ‘em.
Sometimes, you have to nuke first and negotiate after. Hey, worked with Japan! They are totally Americanized now. Heart attacks an’ all. ;p
As soon as we can secure the border with Afghanistan, we will then have the chance to amass battalions of Caterpillar D9 bulldozers and start the parade to the Persian Gulf. On the way, we can cover earthquake damage and close all of the entrances to the nuclear facilities. Now that’s using American muscle, isn’t it?
I’m surprised at how few comments there on this. This is probably the most important topic to address. Where are the comments?
Wait until it goes out in tomorrow’s e-mail links. Then we’ll be flooded with comments.
It is interesting that Ambassador Oren refused to respond to questions about the role of Muslim eschatology in fueling Iran’s violent ambitions during the first part of the interview.
A religious war has been launched against Christians and Jews and they refuse to acknowledge it. Democratic leaders insist on casting the war in any other terms but religious. It is a clash of cultures. A war between haves and have-nots. A war about borders. About displaced refugees. A war of conflicting political ideologies. Anything but a religious war. Islam is a peaceful religion and Jihadists are an anomaly.
All the more reason for PJM to continue to post articles by people like Andrew Bostom.
One question I would have liked to hear Oren answer after the suppression of today’s demonstrations by the regime is why Israel and the United States can’t do more to aid the Iranian demonstrators technologically.
The Jihadists undermined the Shah with easily copied audiotape cassettes of the Ayatollah Khomeini’s fiery speeches. Savak could do nothing to stop the widespread circulation of the poisonous cassettes. Communications have changed vastly and information is more difficult than ever to suppress. Yet the Mossad and the NSA despite their vast electronic and intelligence capability can’t overcome the communications wall the Mullahs have thrown up around Iran.
Clear images and information about the insurrection don’t get out. Encouragement from outside can’t be disseminated within. Cell phone and internet communication that would aid the opposition are suppressed.
How can this be?
It has been reported that early images of opposition demonstrations that had so much impact outside Iran were captured on cameras concealed in pens that were distributed to Iranians at international conferences by the US. It’s a great start but given our electronic sophistication, we should be capable of far more.
Countermeasures to the regime’s control of electronic communication need to be implemented. Opponents of the regime need to be able to communicate with each other and with the citizenry. Information from outside the regime needs to flood in. The regime’s control of information needs to be broken.
It is interesting that Ambassador Oren refused to respond to questions about the role of Muslim eschatology in fueling Iran’s violent ambitions during the first part of the interview.
A religious war has been launched against Christians and Jews and they refuse to acknowledge it. Democratic leaders insist on casting the war in any other terms but religious. It is a clash of cultures. A war between haves and have-nots. A war about borders. About displaced refugees. A war of conflicting political ideologies. Anything
but a religious war. Islam is a peaceful religion and the Jihadists are an anomaly.
All the more reason for PJM to post articles by people like Andrew Bostom.
One question I would have liked to hear Oren answer after the suppression of today’s demonstrations by the regime is why is why Israel and the United States can’t do more to aid the Iranian demonstrators technologically.
The Jihadists undermined the Shah with easily copied audiotape cassettes of the Ayatollah Khomeini’s fiery speeches. Savak could do nothing to stop the widespread circulation of the poisonous cassettes. Communications have changed vastly and information is more difficult than ever to suppress. Yet the Mossad and the NSA despite their vast electronic and intelligence capability can’t overcome the communications wall the Mullahs have thrown up around Iran.
Clear images and information about the insurrection don’t get out. Encouragement from outside can’t be disseminated within. Cell phone and internet communication that would aid the opposition are suppressed.
How can this be?
It has been reported that early images of opposition demonstrations that had so much impact outside Iran were captured on cameras concealed in pens that were distributed to Iranians at international conferences by the US. It’s a great start but given our electronic sophistication we should be capable of far more.
Countermeasures to the regime’s control of electronic communication need to be implemented. Opponents of the regime need to be able to talk to each other and to the citizenry. Information from outside the regime needs to flood in. The regime’s control of information needs to be broken.
BTW, Ambassador Oren spoke at UCSD yesterday without disturbance.
Well, many of them are here:
http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2010/02/09/uc-irvines-free-speech-problem/
There is one sanction that is guaranteed to bring down the government of Iran in a few short months. Iran doesn’t have the capacity of distill more than 20% of the gasoline/kerosine/diesel fuels that it needs…by instituting a blockade of ALL vessels destined for Iran containing those fuels…it would bring the government to it’s knees in at most 2 months.
Of course it would require a president who had actual backbone and charecter..something Mr. Obama is sadly lacking…
I am a little surprised at the lack of reaction as well… even in myself. I guess we were all just waiting for the day…. I wonder what is going on in Israeli military and intelligence circles? I think we have just guaranteed ourselves a nuclear detonation somewhere sometime in the future… not the end of mankind as we feared during the Cold War, but regional devastation… just a question of where.
“Yet the Mossad and the NSA despite their vast electronic and intelligence capability can’t overcome the communications wall the Mullahs have thrown up around Iran.”
Actually, they can, they just don’t want to disclose sources and methods to the Iranians.
Unlike the MSM and it’s audience, the Mossad and NSA understand that the Green movement does not represent a change in government in Iran. It is a coup attempt, NOT a revolution. It is about changing the guys at the top and who gets to steal money for their Swiss bank account. The System of governance will not change.
Re-read the article. In it is stated the simple fact that the Greens are harder (more to the right) on the nuclear weapons programs then the current despots.
If the Green movement takes power, Iran will get worse, not better. From the POV of the USA. I doubt that the Iranians will notice any difference.
So yes, the USA could put an UAV over Tehran and broadcast live video to the Media. Why would they want to do that? They could also set up reasonably secure comm channels. Either of these actions could be seen as an act of war. Both would expose capabilities to anyone that wanted to work on defeating them. UAV’s can be shot down or jammed. A Satt to pick up and rebroadcast comm can also be jammed. The longer such assets are exposed, the more useless they become. Why not save them for when it matters?
Remember, which ever side “wins” this showdown, it won’t change the Iranian attitude toward the USA. It won’t change the USA’s attitude toward Iran. AS we say down here in the sticks, “We got no dog in this fight”
#3 Leatherneck
A big PLUS ONE from here.
#14, JustAl,
Thank you? Are you overseas?
Over.
There are no vital American interests at stake in this battle. Roger, your favorite country can defend itself.
The situation in Iran is an extremely complicated matter that is in need of immediate resolution. I agree with Ambassador Oren in that sanctions aimed at isolating Iran are the first step in making headway with the Iranians. However for sanctions to work, it is vital that the Chinese sign on. Without a concerted effort from all of the international community, any new sanctions will fail just like those previously attempted.
Although sanctions are not my preferred choice of action due to my belief that violence solves most problems, a military strike would likely strengthen the Iranian population’s ties to their government. Ambassador Oren’s assessment that the mood of the Iranian people has changed and will likely blame their government instead of the West when sanctions negatively affect their lives is accurate.
Because America is currently unwilling and financially unable to provide a military solution to the Iranian problem, sanctions are the best alternative. It is in America’s best interest to use every diplomatic resource to get effective sanctions imposed and to bolster the support for the freedom movement in Iran.