What Does Russia Hope to Gain By Being Soft on Iran?
Russia, it seems, has effectively used the Iranian nuclear issue to its advantage. On his visit to Moscow this past July, President Obama agreed to scrap U.S. plans to deploy interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic as part of a U.S. missile defense system in Europe. The Obama administration insisted that it did not expect a quid pro quo from the Russians on Iran, but “hoped” that Russia would not oppose tougher sanctions on Iran if it fails to live up to its international obligations.
Although Russian President Medvedev seemed to have expressed a change of heart at the recent G-20 summit in Pittsburgh regarding sanctions against Iran, Russia has consistently vetoed UN Security Council resolutions against Iran’s nuclear program. Does the new rhetoric coming out of Moscow signal a strategic about-face by Putin/Medvedev?
Unlikely.
At a joint press conference in Moscow with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton on October 13, 2009, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated: “The threat of sanctions against Iran would be counterproductive.” He resisted U.S. efforts to win agreement for measures if Iran fails to prove its nuclear program is peaceful. Lavrov’s boss Vladimir Putin — the real power in Russia — declared while on an official visit to China: “There is no need to frighten the Iranians.” He added: “We need to look for a compromise. If a compromise is not found, and the discussions end in a fiasco, then we will see.”
Iranian proximity to the Russian border on the Caspian Sea should make Moscow at least a little edgy about Tehran’s quest for nuclear arms — and yet to date, Russia has shown no signs that it is willing to go along with Western actions against Iran. Moreover, Russia continues to supply Iran with nuclear technology and weapons, and together with China it has opposed tougher sanctions against Iran.
It certainly appears that Russia is not as apprehensive about a nuclear Iran as Israel and the U.S. are. Nor, for that matter, is it as worried as America’s European and Arab allies are. And as we know, Russian nuclear scientists, technicians, and specialists are operating inside Iran on the construction of an Iranian nuclear site. It should come as no surprise if we learn that some of these specialists are employed by the Russian intelligence services, and that they have been reporting back on the progress Iran has made. It is conceivable that from the inside it may appear that the Iranian technological progress is slower than imagined.
The Russians — who occupied northern Iran during WWII — may very well feel confident that they can control Tehran’s actions if and when it becomes necessary. Naturally, just as the Iranians deceived the world about the existence of the uranium enrichment facility in Qom, they might very well fool the Russian snoopers of their real progress.
Yeah, Putin’s playing smart. I wish we had. I’m writing from Iraq, and let me tell you, three years here have made me a very reluctant admirer of the way the Russians play the international-relations game. I have seen American power poured out into the desert by the ton. By the billions of dollars. We have gained nothing, while Putin and the Russians have watched, laughing in disbelief at our folly. Now, without spending a penny or losing a single man, they are patiently, quietly moving to consolidate their Iranian alliance, after which they and the Mullahs in Tehran will divide Iraq (and, eventually, Kuwait and the rest of the UAE and SA) like Poland in 1940.
But why blame them? If a man shoots himself in the desert, you can hardly blame the vultures for gathering at the corpse. We did this to ourselves.
Russia is all about the power and oil. A fight provoked between Israel and Iran would shut down lots of middle east oil production making what Russia has to sell much more valuable.
It is a great strategy. They lose no men, their fingerprints aren’t on the deed really, they blame Israel as will the rest of the world. They get to re arm Iran at big bucks and oil goes to $200/barrel.
The Russians must feel like chess grandmasters at a tournament of unrated players when dealing with the west.
What Russia is really want?
It is Israel avionics, stupid:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KJ20Ak03.html
look… strategically a nuclear Iran is a WIN/WIN/WIN/WIN/WIN for Tsar Pootie-Poot…
1. Iran’s potential nuclear capability will be limited for quite a while. Its devices will be reasonably primitive (straight fission, not thermonuclear) and marginally difficult(though not impossible) to deliver. Russia also knows that it is not a primary or secondary target in any way shape or form.
2. IF Iran did try something against Russia, A) it would be limited B) it would be absorbed without too much “crying and moaning” by the Russian government (that never cared and never will give a fig for the average Russian)… at least for the 30 minute or so SS20 flight time to turning Iran into a massive glowing glass parking lot. Iran KNOWS that Pootie-Poot would destroy every living thing in Iran should it choose to attack Russia, so Iran is unlikely to entertain the notion.
3. A Nuclear Iran and strife in the middle east drives Russian oil and gas profits through the roof, at very little cost to the Russians. With Iran being unstable and unreliable as a supplier Europe will be forced to turn to Tsar Vladimir I for its heating and motor fuels.
4. A Nuclear Iran absolutely WILL (IMHO anyway) attempt strikes at Israel. Tel Av’iv will remain a primary target for years (The Iranians are unlikely to try something in Jerusalem.) If that occurs Israel ends (a nation that size is unlikely to be able to absorb a nuclear strike.) Of course Israel would retaliate, and create smaller puddles of glowing glass in Iran, but still will essentially behead the Mullahorcacy there. World oil prices skyrocket. Tsar Vlad cashes in again. AND he is rid of the Iran problem. Plus the mid-east is rid of the “Israel Problem” (Very depressing since I admire and support Israel for many reasons.)
5. A nuclear Iran, and a compromised Pakistan means that terror organizations (essentially Iranian funded mercenary special operations brigades) will have access to nuclear weapons. If they attack the US, the likely death toll would be immense. The economic shock would be devistating to our already crippled economy, and the likelihood that “The One” would actually retaliate in kind very low… to almost ZERO. Of course a world with a crippled US is a world ripe for Tsar Pootie-Poot and his new Russian empire.
The Chinese, having had the US default on tons of worthless paper might not be to thrilled, either.
The bi-polar world of the late 21st Century could very well be Russia vs China…
Lots to consider. November we push back in Virginia and New Jersey (common Jersey wake the heck up!!!). 2010 we had better think really hard about the disaster that is the Marxist/Socialist/Fascist/Corporatist Democrats… and the race in 2012 is going to be just ahead of the monster of a Putin assisted nuclear Iran chasing the two candidates.
Warm and fuzzies all around…
The Mighty Fahvaag
Hey, Vladimir is not such a bad guy. He doesn’t really hate us; he just wants to restore to Russia something like the power it once had. That’s his motivation.
Rubbish. Claptrap. He despises the US, the west, and liberal democracy. He has publicly stated that Russia will never be ready for it. He admires Yuri Andropov.
Putin is a grub, whose moral and political outlook has been formed by an entire working life in a lawless, brutal secret police organisation, the KGB. Yes, he wants to restore the brute power of the old Soviet Union, opportunistically as the occasions arise, no question. But this aim is inseparable from a crude and visceral desire to thwart, discompose, frighten and weaken the US in any way he can.
It is nonsense to think that he forsees any danger to Russia from arming Iran with nukes, such as would make him cautious. He knows that the cynical, grubby mullahs who run Iran will ever make common cause, out of principle, with the Sunnis on Russia’s southern borders; but slipping a nuke to al qaeda for use in the west is another thing altogether. Perhaps Putin is, in reality, riding the tiger, but it’s certainly not how he sees it.
Let’s stop the wishful thinking. Putin WANTS Iran to get a nuke. He will NEVER support sanctions, or, if he was forced to, he would do everything in his power to neutralize their effect.
He has played the US foreign policy establishment with pathetic and audacious ease. His people obviously hinted that the US would get a concession if they dropped missile defence; and of course, the US cannot now bleat about being double crossed; it would make the US look pathetic and ridiculous.
Putin ought not to be trusted an inch. He will do everything he can to make sure Iran becomes a nuclear power.
Putin has his eye on becoming the hero to Europe, not on staying in the middle of a perpetual motion poker game. He’s backing those who are now seeking to overthrow the Islamic regime in order to ensure that once they toss out the theocratic thugs, they’ll have Moscow to thank and the US will still be seen as an enemy or at least an impotent and untrustworthy. Tossing the theocrats and being the best friend of the incoming regime is the goal for Moscow, not staying neutral or friendly with Islamic maniacs.
Should Russia get credit for bringing Iran back into the fold and out of the Islamic jihad camp, Europe would see Moscow as the only country now able to mitigate the Islamic threat to European security. The US would quickly become a far less important in the eyes of the Europeans. Especially since the US tossed its promises to Poland and friends under the bus without so much as Congressional hearings. Who can rely on a country like that when the wolf is at the door of the EU? The goal is the same, to regain superpower status, but the method that pays real dividends is to neutralize the Iranian threat, not to keep it in check. Putin has to be thanking his lucky stars that the US is stupid enough to elect Carter twice.
Regards
I think it’s a devilishly good move by Putin/ Russia. A power grab & frightening accord with the Iranian Government. Twofer.
This puts Putin/ Russia in good standing with the Iranians, as well as the millions of Muslims who call Russia home.
The oil trade, desperately depended upon and needed by Europe and provided by Russia is power.
I can count on one finger where Vladi Zhirinovsky was right. Russia to ally itself with the west and go after China &
the muslim world. For he saw that Muslims place the rest of the world under quarantine, and the only dealings Muslims
are to have with the rest of the world are three in total, and to be initiated by Muslims. Namely, conversion, dhimmitude & execution.
Putyin, and crowd, discount this because they are still wedded to the notion that Moscow is the third Rome. Their loss, and ultimately the loss will be laid on the shoulders of everyone.
The problem is this , Russia has a Islamic problem outside it’s borders and they do have a budding Islamic insurgency within. Russia even when it’s known as the USSR was known for it’s ability to make the West look like fools in the diplomatic front but the cost of that was devastating to the Russian people in the end. They know how to play the political long game, the problem is this, they are devastatingly incompetent on dealing with the consequences of their past actions. Putin may appear smart to you, but hear me out ,if Putin succeeds, Russia will be fighting for it’s life as early as 2020 against the Islamic threat. There will be no Western allies who will be willing to help post Putin Russia stave off it’s inevitable defeat against the Islamic forces. Helping Islamic Iran into becoming a nuclear power would haunt the Russian Republic for a long time to come.
Playing the Great Game and winning the Great Game are two different things, unfortunately for Putin, his obsession with the Great Game would ultimately cost Russia it’s life.
Will
You are wrong. You are saying that Russia will have no Western allies in its fight against islamists, but West is loosing its fight . On the other hand Russia may have an ally in China which also have a large islamists problem, and China will be better ally to deal with islamists – they both have very radical way of dealing with their problems in contrast to Europe and America.
Russia wants to corner European supply of natural gas. In return for selling weapons to Iran it has an ally in cornering natural gas supply to Europe.
Russia also has oil so it has no problem in nuclear Iran. Iran does not aims its nuclear weapons against Russia and if Iran attack Israel, Russia will be one of the major oil suppliers for China and Europe. And the price of oil will drastically increase.
So really it is win-win situation for Russia.
Ella must be Russian. I say that because he/she/not sure is delusional. Russian as an ethnic group are paranoid because they have never been able to figure out who their enemy is. So they assume everyone is their enemy. That becomes self fulfilling eventually.
The Number One target for an Iranian nuke is Moscow.
Sneak a nuke into Moscow, which would be easy, and blow it. All those Russian missile sites will assume the Americans did it when they call Moscow for orders and get a dial tone. Some of them will launch. America will detect those launches and launch back. Two birds with one stone.
Why should the Mad Dog Mullahs fight America when they can trick Russia into doing it for them?
The USA will come out of that exchange OK. Not good, but OK. Losing a city or three will suck, but it won’t destroy America. Losing Moscow will mean the end of Russia. That is the problem with tyranny. The Tyrant is dead, long live the Tyrant! Russia will become a mass of waring city states as various Generals and regional bosses fight over the Radioactive ruins.
Still a win-win for Russia.
Ella, where is your evidence that the West is losing it’s fight? Europe is, but the USA isn’t.
Ella
Russia is not synonymous with USSR anymore and truth be told, Putin is paying the Iranians mullahs the Russian equivalent of the Danegeld to in order to prevent terrorist attacks from the Chechen islamic separatists. It’s a lose-lose situation for Russia and if you think China would ally itself with Russia, think again. Chinese troops would be rather heading north to occupy Siberia than to help Russia against Islam. Facts of life, Ella, facts of life.
Speaking of facts, the fact is the only things the Soviets were ever good at is propaganda and spying.
Propaganda has a short shelf life, since eventually the liars die and their lies come unraveled.
Spying is self defeating, since stealing a thing detracts from learning the skills to build a thing. So when Super-thing or thing Mk2 comes along, you have no choice but to try and steal it too. Eventually something comes along that can’t be stolen. Then the thieves are well and truly hosed.
Anyone else remember the moon race? The Soviets never did get a man to the moon, so they started a propaganda campaign to discredit the American accomplishment. Meanwhile the technology developed from putting a man on the moon is used everyday all across the planet. It has poured a LOT more money into America coffers then all the OIL in Russia ever will. Not to mention JDAM’s, JSTAR, and a host of other military applications.
Technology breeds technology. when you steal a thing, you cut yourself off from the technology development needed to create that thing yourself, PLUS all the other things farther down that tech tree.
It is hard to take on the Cold War nostalgiac Russophobic war porn that passes for analysis here at Pajamas Media. A great deal of which it is difficult not to attribute to sock puppets for one Kim Zigfield, aka La Russophobe, and her Jamestown/Randy Scheunemann/Berezovsky funded black PR blog.
LR incidentally has a hardcore group of followers, some of who are probably Banderisti from Lyov (in other words drawn from the tiny minority of Ukrainians who are hardcore nationalists and who work with generous heapings of Soros cash to convince right wing Americans that their pro-NATO Russophobic views represent the wishes of more than 10% of the Ukrainian population). Others are certifiable John Birchers. All whether they know it or not are members of the anti-Russia lobby in D.C., a lobby that dare not speak its name unlike the pro-Israel or CAIR Islamic lobby.
The downside for this crowd is, over here at PJM, “she” cannot censor comments asking pointed questions about who pays for the nearly six days a week “Russia is doomed/Russians deserve to die off” hatefest. Far more than the average heaping of amateur blog posts, I would say, especially if the author really lives in New York (Alexandria, VA is more likely, and closer to both Jamestown and Scheunemann’s latest lobbying shop).
Wretchard the Cat however is a shrewd and astute observer of global politics who does not let the Cold War baggage excessively blinker his analysis. The boys at Stratfor down in Austin have some of that too, in the sense that George Friedman is an old Cold Warrior and it is difficult to take what he says about Russia seriously after he predicted that the U.S. might have to fight Mexico and Poland to death somewhere around 2050. But at least Stratfor is not blinded by wishful thinking that Russia will simply demographically die off and be absorbed by the Chinese and Islamic hordes (both of whom presumably will sell Russia’s natural resources cheaper to the West, or so the neocons hope as in a repeat of the Nineties when Czar Boris and the oligarchs gave them $10 a barrel oil). No, both Wretchard and Stratfor know, even if they are not aware of the country’s recent demographic uptick, that Russia is back and will remain a force in world politics barring some catastrophe for decades to come.
Wretchard’s essential issue re: Moscow is that the Russians seem to know what they want, whereas our own feckless elites really just want to collect Nobels and be universally loved, keep printing money to prop up their personal power, etc.
Oh and since the author of this post is a pro-Israel guy, he should be aware that Russia finally cancelled the S-300 SAM system that everyone’s been discussing as a possible block on an airstrike against Iran’s nuclear facilities this past week, after months of waffling.
Also, as David Goldman (aka the Asia Times Spengler) is well aware, the Israelis had no problems turning off the S-300s supplied to Syria to protect their reactor that was quietly bombed last year. So…who do you think sold Israel the “off switch” to a Russian SAM system do that? Furthermore, if Russia is so against Israel why is it buying UAVs from the Israelis for the Russian military?
All you old fart Cold Warriors who think Russia is simply repeating the Brezhnev era tactic of dumping a lot of weapons into the Mideast in hopes of jacking up world oil prices should think again.
Russia does not merely want avionics from Israel. It wants nanotechnology.
Putin is one of the ‘ bad czars’ like Alexander 111, or Nicholas 1, he is the face of the siloviki that brotherhood of ex KGB that runs the country.They are given great latitude like Gen. Makarov’s suggestion of a first strike against any potential adversary, after we made the deal, shutting down our BMD facilities in Eastern Europe. Russia faces an Islamic insurgency that runs from Chechnya all the way into the Hindu Kush, their mismanagement of same, is what allowed AQ to metasticize, the Nord Ost incident and Beslan are a sign of that.
They ventured into yet another territory grab in Georgia, and were checked. Now it’s interesting that one titles themselves Mr. X, misunderstanding Kennan’s long telegram’s insight about Russian nationalism, being transmuted into Communist goals.
Here is an excellent article on this subject;
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KJ20Ak03.html
Mr. X, where is your proof that the “cold war” is over? The Soviet Union morphed back into it’s Russian roots. It now continues under a tyrant. Given that Socialism and Communism are vehicles for tyrants to seize power, I submit to you that there has been no change in Russia, beyond the minor detail of the Tyrants name. Russia missed the train to Self-governance (democracy).
You can hide you head in the sand, but that will just produce what it always does. A sore butt.
4. You’re probably right about Putin’s logic. The problem is that it has a fatal flaw- it assumes that Israel wouldn’t attack Russia if hit by an Iranian nuke, when in fact, Russia is on the list of nations to be decimated by the Samson Option. Were Iran to nuke Tel Aviv, Israel would retaliate by nuking not only Iran, but hitting Moscow, Damascus, Beruit, Tyre, Sidon and Cairo as well, along with any other cities they find inconvenient. Due to the religious implications, Russia would refrain from nuking Jerusalem, and Israel knows it- the Russian retaliation would come in the form of a massive cavalry invasion, prompting Israel to unleash neutron bombs on the invasion force, and the world will watch as Ezekiel 38-39 comes to life.
“Russia does not merely want avionics from Israel. It wants nanotechnology.”
Then they are barking up the wrong tree. The advanced work in nano tech is being done in OZ and the USA. Israel isn’t even among the front runners.
Japan, Italy and S. Korea are ahead of Israel.
So far the only nano tech ready for actual use is Australian (Oz).
http://www.nanotechwire.com/news.asp?nid=8743&ntid=&pg=2
Sign up for the Webiniar. You will for sure get to meet a lot of Russian and Chinese agents. I’ll be at the convention. I’m looking for nanotech investments. I think the Capital gains taxes will be waived on serious green tech investments. Something for my grandchildren’s trust fund. Israel isn’t putting much effort into nanotech because it won’t pay off for quite a while and Israel needs to think about survival right now.
The USA pulling out of HEL and taking the money with them was a serious blow to Israel.
Israel needs a way to disable ICBM’s before they hit, not nanotech. The solution to the Iranian problem is a 2 gigawatt Laser in geosynchronous orbit. Any missile getting higher then 100Km’s gets burned. Plus they know they can get nanotech later. The next POTUS will give it to them for help with the Jewish lobby in getting rid of the Usurper.