What Does Korea’s Chaos Portend for the United States?
Recent Events:
On March 26 North Korea sank the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan southwest of the island of Baeknyeong-do just south of the contested sea border with North Korea. It resulted in the loss of forty-six lives. North Korea denied all responsibility. On November 23 North Korea attacked the populated island of Yeonpyeong-do close to similarly contested waters. This resulted in the loss of four lives, two military and two civilian. North Korea acknowledged that it had fired artillery at the island, but blamed its action on South Korean provocations.
The North Korean attack on Yeonpyenong-do came soon after North Korea had revealed “its shiny new uranium-based nuclear program to the world.” That revelation may well have been seen by North Korea as insurance against significant retaliation. Following the attack on Yeonpyenong-do, North Korean state media said that Pyongyang “will wage second and even third rounds of attacks without any hesitation, if warmongers in South Korea make reckless military provocations again.”
Following the Yeonpyeong-do incident, the North Korean economy — already a disaster — worsened dramatically. Inflation, already high, spiked. “One hundred yuan [Chinese currency], which before the shelling went for 2,000 won, is now worth 35,000 won.” Local manufacturers, uncertain about their supplies of Chinese goods, have been exchanging their won for Chinese currency while they still can and conserving their increasingly scarce Chinese supplies. Domestic prices have increased substantially, the price of a kilogram of rice increasing from 900 won to 1,600 won. Corn climbed from 4,000 won per kilogram to 6,000 won.
The United States and South Korea held brief and uneventful naval exercises in the South China Sea from November 28 through December 1, and later the United States held similarly uneventful naval exercises with Japan. Both were held against a background of efforts by China to resurrect wide ranging six-party talks allegedly to cool down military ardor and to obtain economic assistance for North Korea. The further activities and rhetoric of North Korea negated these efforts and China seems to be increasingly concerned with the escalating tensions. China’s efforts are likely motivated more by her own domestic concerns, including inflation, than anything else; this article and this support the thesis that China may be in for a rough ride economically and domestically. The United States has substantial economic concerns about China’s economy.
This analysis seems to read the tea leaves pretty well. North Korea demands copious aid, including sources of hard currency and food, and respect. Prior to the attack on Yeonpyeong-do, North Korea had demanded those things:
Half the nation’s children are malnourished, some starving. North Korea’s leaders obviously don’t care much about that. But if the people are starving, then the “Great Leader” Kim Jong Il and his mandarins probably don’t have everything they want, either.
However, the North was rebuffed. So, like a very spoiled and self-destructive brat North Korea threw a tantrum:
What could North Korea do next? No one was showing respect. No one was offering aid. So the military opened fire. After that, the world did suddenly pay attention again, and at first it followed the script. Everyone urged China, North Korea’s only ally, to restrain its neighbor. President Obama made his call on Monday [December 6, fourteen days after the attack on Yeonpyenong-do]. China, as usual, refused and instead invited the United States and other nations to Beijing for talks — just what North Korea had wanted.
Around the table, the North Koreans could once again demand bounteous aid in exchange for a promise of no further attacks.
Well, this time was different. The United States, Japan and South Korea refused to attend. By now, they knew the game. When a North Korean official showed up for the talks last Friday, nobody else was there.
The author of the linked article predicted in consequence “a stronger, more deadly attack” to follow that on Yeonpyeong-do.
South Korea clearly envisions some form of military action as well. On December 6 new South Korean rules of engagement were announced, under which “the South Korean military will exercise self-defense based on an “act first, report later” principle”:
“The commanders of each military service will give orders for self-defense,” said Jang Gwang-il, head of defense policy at the ministry. “Self-defense will be exercised until the origin of the provocation is hit, and [the retaliation] will not be bound by the Korean War cease-fire agreement or rules of battle.” Jang said that the U.S. and South Korea had a mutual understanding on the issue.
Jang also called for the preparing of more troops for battle on the field. He also ordered higher-ranking officials to simplify orders for those lower on the chain of command to give them more leeway to act quickly and creatively in an emergency.
Catch and release are probably not part of the new rules of engagement. Admiral Mullen, Chairman of the United States military Chiefs of Staff, on December 6 announced plans to visit South Korea during the week of December 6 to reassure the South Korean military that the United States “stands by” them. According to this article, his departure the same day as the announcement was “swift.” Once he arrived:
Mullen warned that North Korea should not mistake South Korean restraint as a lack of resolve. “Nor should they interpret it as willingness to accept continued attacks,” Mullen said at a joint news conference with his South Korean counterpart, Gen. Han Min-koo, after the two met in Seoul.
“Your readiness to defend your territory and your citizens is unmistakable, and my country’s commitment to helping you do that is unquestioned,” Mullen said.
Defense Secretary Gates, contemporaneously but quite less dramatically than Admiral Mullen, told “U.S. sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea” on December 6 that:
I think this is a difficult and potentially dangerous time. … The North Koreans have engaged in some very provocative actions. They get everyone upset, then they volunteer to come back to talks, and we basically end up buying the same horse twice.
So I think we need to figure out the way ahead with North Korea. … Nobody wants a war on the Korean peninsula. And I think we just have to work with the Chinese and with others to see if we can’t bring some greater stability, some greater predictability to the regime in Pyongyang.”
It would appear that, as all the alternatives are failing it, North Korea has decided to amp up its single reliable generator of revenue: extortion.
For some time now, the Norks’ maneuvers and statements have been calibrated toward extorting economic sustenance from South Korea and America. Indeed, every action Pyongyang undertakes is designed to create confusion in Washington and fear in Seoul, such that Dane-geld to the North will be increased to avert the possibility of war. The most important regional power, Red China, has no interest in helping us rein in the Stalinists in Pyongyang; North Korea is useful to the Red Chinese as a deflector, so that America will have its attention split while Beijing pursues other geopolitical prizes, such as Taiwan.
Kim Jong-il’s regime is as aware of this as anyone — indeed, if if weren’t, it could not have survived this long. So it uses Chinese tolerance and tacit support, its large standing army and other forces, and its international reputation for recklessness and irrationality, to “persuade” richer nations to keep it afloat, on the “anything would be preferable to another Korean War” argument.
But, as Kipling told us, once you start paying Dane-geld, you never get rid of the Dane. That’s the position America, South Korea, Japan, and the other well-meaning enablers of North Korea’s geopolitical extortion racket occupy today.
Ironically, today may be the day that we find out how serious North Korea is about starting another war. The South Koreans say they are going to hold a live-fire exercise on the populated island of Yeonpyeong-do. If the North Koreans respond with an even heavier artillery bombardment, we may have a war here. I would sleep a lot better tonight if I knew there were about four US Navy carrier battle groups in the area, along with several nuclear missile submarines. That would certainly give the North Koreans pause to re-evaluate the situation. If not, it’s not going to be a very merry Christmas in that part of the world.
The earlier announced South Korean naval exercise in the waters south of Yeonpyenong-do has been postponed due to weather.
However the weather at the moment seems fairly benign – clear to partly cloudy to cloudy with light winds; a satellite image shows nothing of significance in the area of Yeonpyenong-do or on the west coast generally. Bad weather may be the actual reason or something else may explain the delay.
.
Dan,
Thanks for the great article !
The real (unspoken) reason that the artillery exercise has been canceled (due to poor weather) has nothing to do with the artillery aspect.
Instead, it’s all about having clear weather in case the North Koreans attack (as promised) and the South Korean Air Force (massively) swings into action …
Hence the need for good weather … to benefit the South Korean Air Force …
A new Korean confict would plunge the global economy into a lethal tailspin … starting with Asia and Red China …
I’m sure that a quid-pro-quo agreement has already been made between the US and China for China to support a North Korean Coup-de-tat (sp) …
That’s precisely why the North Korean diplomat was deliberate snubbed at the recent six-party meeting (where the US and Japan refused to attend) …
It was a diplomatic way of saying that “no one” respects the self-appointed “legitmacy” of the North Korean government …
.
“so that America will have its attention split while Beijing pursues other geopolitical prizes, such as Taiwan”
Exactly. If a war breaks out and the US is intimately involved, look for the Chinese to move on Taiwan.
And they may decide to push the North into an attack so they can take Taiwan and possibly a few Japanese Islands near Taiwan.
Consider: If China backs NKo in a war, we can nuke China, thereby avoiding the debt we owe them.
For those who read history, or have lived it, we face similar problems as Truman faced in the early 1950s. But there are differences. We should consider the differences. NK may have the bomb, and a missile delivery system. They will certainly have it in a few years. Japan is perhaps four months from a nuclear armed nation. This is against their constitution but laws could change. If Japan went nuclear, China would relive the trauma which has seared their history, as a conquered land. If war broke out in Korea, China would experience millions of starving refugees flooding across her border. The USSR no longer exists. None of these nations love us, but they all want peace. Fat people want stability.
The US should assure everyone that after, not if, North Korea collapses, we want out. In order to obtain this certain new order, and stability, we will help fund a Marshall plan in China-North Korea. These talks should exclude NK, but they should know about them. The number one topic of discussion is what happens two seconds after NK detonates a nuke. No body should be surprised. A possible prior preventive approach is a Berlin airlift: thousands of overflights and millions of food drops. Some might contain a 9 MM automatic. The parents of starving kids do not easily surrender food to a soldier.
One fact is certain. John Kerry’s primary attack against George Bush, that we should have direct talks with NK, was, and is bull. Obama could talk to a wall and do as well.
Where would the money come from? We can’t fund a new Marshal Plan in the current crisis, we are already too deep in debt.
During an attempt by a South Korean coast guard vessel to arrest fishermen on a Chinese fishing boat the two collided causing the Chinese vessel to capsize.
A map is here. Such illegal Chinese fishing in the area is common, but this incident may conceivably put a minor new wrinkle in whatever efforts China may be making to calm tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The solution to the North Korean international problem is simple, easy for us to do and the least risky of any other action.
Take the plan our Democratic Party is using on our population and apply it to the North Korean people. That is give them gifts that they cannot refuse, with a “slight possibility” they may become dependent on the gifts.
We can propose an immediate humanitarian food and fuel supply directly to all of the North Koreans, just like done during the Berlin Blockade. North Koreans will be treated with great respect as important human beings, all they need to do is open up their air space and landing fields to allow the food to show up now.
South Koreans have many relatives in North Korea and they would not likely stand in the way. China will be directly challenged by this, but they could have done the same thing any time previously but didn’t, so they are in a weak negotiating position.
The cost of this is extremely small compared to any military operation and with their regime uncertainty we can make a major effect for long term stability.
You would do well to take into account the nature of the government of NorK. It will not allow foreign aircraft and ships to deliver food and fuel to North Koreans because it demands to be the recipient and distribute such goodies as it sees fit, in order to enhance its control. It is that control that is causing all the problems. For a couple of decades now the US and ROK have been delivering goodies to NorK and the result is that we are the targets of continual NorK extortion, culminating in killing 50 sailors, marines and civilians in the latest two incidents. Do not make silly suggestions completely divorced from the realities of the situation.
Confronted by a violent extortionist, NorK, the only thing to do is stand up to him. It’s like Chicago Rules in the movie The Untouchables. Nork puts one of ours in the hospital, we put one of his in the morgue. Specifically, the next violent provocation should be met by total blockade of NorK. No ships allowed to move in or out. All naval ships detected sunk on detection, especially submarines. Aircraft forced to land at ROK fields where the passengers will be returned to NorK or their home countries and the planes destroyed. NorK ships on the high seas captured and brought into ROK. Unflagged ships boarded to determine if they are NorK (remember that unflagged ship from NorK carrying Scud missiles to Yemen?). If NorK they sould be seized. If NorK wants to play rough, play rougher. Artillery attacks should be met by bigger bombardments in return. And if NorK is tempted to attack Seoul, assure the NorK government that, if they do, evrrything they value in their country will be destroyed.
This is a lesson for us. Dugout Doug was right, in war there is no substitute for victory. This crisis is happening because in 1951 we did not bite the bullet and reunify the peninsula by force. The responsible officials in 1951 could not foresee that NorK would eventually get nukes, but they could have foreseen that it would be a pain in the rear for ROK, for us, and for others if left to fester by itself. Put pressure on NorK until it collapses, then let ROK pick up the pieces.
Here is a bit more on the temporarily delayed South Korean live-fire exercises.
The participation, even as observers, of twenty U.S. soldiers for the stated purposes seems very important; should they become casualties, U.S. military involvement may well increase. Even century old history often provides some guidance to the future.
On a visit to his friend General Foch in France in January of 1910, General Wilson asked,
The entire world is poised to go to war, this is just one of the areas where we are facing possible attacks on our allies and Obama and the Dems are doing their best to destroy our military.
Not only does our president obama write nasty letters, now he has our military top heavy boy scouts writing nasty letters to our enemies. Not to fear we can still demand our allies to do what we want them to do. Except for most of Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia and even most Latin American countries. We have people all over the world scared of us. They are laughing so hard at America their belly`s hurt from laughter. Just think of our forefathers saying we better write a letter to Sitting Bull and talk the Indians out of their land, because they might hurt us. We would still be on the east coast under British rule. We have become such a lazy pathetic people living in our own fear of what some one else might do and think of us. SO we have become the biggest bunch of liars, telling the world. That we are a world power. Hail to the nasty letter writers, sad but this country was freed with a bunch of people who could not read, they just wanted to be free! Their leaders however had honor and integrity! I keep looking for John Wayne and the Calvary!
I’m surprised that after all of this very sensible article and comments that nothing has been said of the enormous cultural gap between the United States and the three central powers in NE Asia. And, a United States which has been entangled ( I really like that 18th century cautionary term)…North and South Korea, where blood relations are intense, but politics and ideology have interfered since 1953, and between China and Japan…..each with their own separate and very complicated long histories and antagonisms. This wide cultural gap is never minimized inside Asia. However we Americans have yet to learn the depth of this cultural gap.
Times change. Japan is gradually edging away from its justified nuclear phobia, China is stretching tentacles. The Japanese will never forget Chinese aggression which started in about 1931. The North/South Koreans will never forget Japanese Colonialism. So, they’re like large hissing cats warily circling each other, each seeking out just how far each can go to force the other to lose “face”.
The emphases placed by just about everyone have so far only been centered upon the various military strengths and maneuverings. But, all of these still remain based upon “face”.
We Americans have no background in considering the enormous, all encompassing, cultural mega-force of exquisitely nuanced Asian considerations of “face”. Unfortunately, we Americans find ourselves now forced by prior treaty commitments signed under previous, differing situations to come to the military aid of these circling cats with American blood.
I’m wholeheartedly against any further American blood being shed in Asia.
We must honor our previously agreed commitments. But, we Americans should absolutely avoid all future “entangling agreements”; with the pointed and notable exception of those between us inside the traditional English Speaking Union.
This is a companion piece to the present article. The point about the cultural and lack of knowledge about what’s going on is treated briefly there.
There has long been animosity between the Koreans and the Japanese due, in no small measure, to cultural differences as well as to the Japanese occupation of Korea since well before 1910, discussed briefly in this other companion article. Perhaps due in part to cultural differences as well as to the Chinese invasion of South Korea following the U.S. retreat from the Yalu beginning on November 1, 1950, the South Koreans have not generally been very warm to the Chinese; when I was in South Korea ages ago between 1966 and 1971, the Chinese were considered to be dirty and foreign.
….hasty important correction:
The Chinese will never forget the Japanese aggression which started in about 1931. The Koreans will never forget the Red Chinese involvement in the Korean War.
The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to meet on Sunday morning at 11:00 am, Eastern Standard Time, to discuss the volatile situation in Korea.
To the extent that there is more than a foggy announcement of the results of the meeting it may be interesting. However, I suspect that China and to a lesser extent Russia will seek some sort of action to restrain South Korea. Neither has thus far had any success in restraining North Korea and it seems unlikely that any UN resolution would either.
Here is an imperfect metaphor for the situation. Little Billy Bully and little Mike Meek are students at Librul Middle School. Their fathers are both on the school board. Billy had for a long time been demanding that Mike surrender his lunch money at recess and Mike had complied; beats fighting. One day, Mike refuses and Billy punches him in the nose. Mike hits back and both are expelled. At a school board meeting, Mr. Bully and Mr. Meek seek a consensus. Mr. Bully supports little Billy, urging that he is just a troubled kid and should not be expelled but if he is that the same fate should befall little Mike. Mr. Meek disagrees, contending that only little Billy should be suspended, for one week, and receive psychological counseling: little Mike was simply defending himself from an attack for failing to yield to extortion and should face no punitive action. The school board reaches a compromise under which neither is expelled or suspended and both are to receive psychological counseling. Two days later, Billy repeats his earlier actions. What, oh what, is the school board to do?
Mr Miller…I predict that the School Board will shortly point towards the County Treasurer,(the United States) and say, “We need more County money, more County personnel trained in psycho-therapy and physical restraint”.
According to this report, the UN Security Council session has ended with no agreement and South Korea plans very shortly to begin live fire exercises.
It looks as though this may be “it,” whatever “it” is.
It’s just after 3:00 am Monday EST and 5:00 pm Monday Korea time. The South Korean live fire exercises began at about 2:45 PM Monday Korean time and ended about two hours later. No North Korean response has yet been reported, and the usual news sources seem strangely silent. I don’t know whether there is a news blackout or something else.
We should know in a few hours.
North Korea has thus far refrained from further military action. The situation is similar to a shell game at a carnival: the pea has been hidden and where it may go next is known to no one. The Kim dynasty and its closest associates may have some valid ideas but I doubt seriously that anyone else does. I certainly don’t. North Korea may have seen the miraculous wonders of peace, it may wait for a more opportune moment to do something unfortunate or it may attack South Korea without warning when it deems the time right without regard to the consequences.
The United States, South Korea and the rest of the world should not simply go on to more interesting stuff in the interim. The fat lady has yet to sing.