Wake Up, Mainstream Media: If Tide Is Shifting, It’s in Romney’s Direction
President Barack Obama’s free ride with enough of the disengaged portion of the electorate to matter may finally be coming to an end.
A look at the top two presidential election polls listed at Real Clear Politics on Sunday morning showed the race between Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney in a dead heat.
The first, the daily tracking poll at Rasmussen – the most accurate presidential pollster in the 2008 presidential contest — had the 2012 race knotted at 46%. (Pew Research, often cited along with Rasmussen as being the most accurate four years ago, was only on target in its final 2008 poll after showing absurdly cooked 15- and 14-point leads for Obama over John McCain one and two weeks, respectively, before Election Day.)
The second Sunday poll came from Gallup, which reported a 47% deadlock — erasing a six-point Obama lead from the previous week. Interviews in both polls went through Friday, September 21.
The six polls listed below Rasmussen and Gallup at RCP showed Obama with an average lead of 4.5 points. Their poll cutoffs were several days earlier, ranging from September 16-19.
Even after considering that at least two of the previous polls had samples overstuffed with Democrats, that’s quite a swing in just a few days. If this kind of move had gone in Obama’s direction, there would be a constant drumbeat in the establishment press declaring the race all but over.
Oh, wait. There is anyway.
On Saturday, Thomas Beaumont and Charles Babington at the Administration’s Press attempted to pile on. In a piece headlined “Tide shifts to Obama in most competitive states,” the pair wrote that ”the advantage has shifted toward President Barack Obama after a series of miscues by Mitt Romney, punctuated by the Republican challenger’s comments about people who pay no income tax.” The premise of babblers Beaumont and Babington is that the key swing states Romney badly needs to win are now slipping away.
Really? Before the national polling swing in Romney’s direction just cited, Rasmussen had the following toss-up state rundown: Virginia, Obama up by three points; Nevada, Obama by two; Ohio, Obama by one; Florida, Romney by one; Colorado, Romney by two; New Hampshire, Romney by two; Iowa, Romney by three; and North Carolina, Romney by six.
But Tom!!!! This can’t be. Why just this morning, I was passed a poll showing Mitt Romney losing even the NASCAR crowd.
Yeah really! We’re doomed.
http://www.politicususa.com/wheels-fall-romney-obama-leads-nascar-fans-48-41.html
P.S. There’s a lot of people that like NASCAR in my home state of OK. Obama will be fortunate to stay within 35 points. And I’m going to keep record of all these “polls” pointing toward a huge Obama win come Nov 7th and remind them of that fact.
The media’s false narrative of Romney as an out-of-touch, gaffe-prone millionaire running a stiff campaign is being propped up by the phony polling. If Romney were to tale a 50, or 51% lead in the most respected polls–which is where I reckon he would be if not for the oversampling of Democrats, that false narrative would collapse, and then the focus would have to be shifted back to the train wreck that is the Obama presidency. This is exactly what the media wants to avoid.
One thing on the bogus polls. I think it may be as much due to incompetance as an active plot. What makes me thing that is the Fox poll is one of the ones with the most pro obama bias, but fox is supposed to be a conservative network. The active plot part is the MSM constantly emphasising these bogus polls, without ever questioning them for possible bias. One other thing, some of these results may just be out of date. Obama did get a real post convention surge, confirmed by Gallup and Rasmussen, the 2 most reliable polls, but these same polls also showed the post convention surge had completely faded. Some of these swing state polls showing obama way ahead in various swing states, may be showing real results, but results distorted by the fading post convention surge. I would not trust any swing state poll that was more than a week old, because it probably incorporated an obama post convention surge that has faded by now.
FOX turned left overall soon after Beck departed. No longer Fair and Balanced, they’re simply the best of a bad lot (which isn’t saying much). Stick to the internet. FOX is no longer trustworthy.
I totally agree with you; do not trust Fox, but they are the best of the worst.
“Best of the Worst” fits FOX to a wet t-shirt. I’ve starting to watch “Democracy NOW! just so I can keep perspective. We need a new Center Right media outlet.
Like I tell my HS Government students. DO NOT BELIEVE anyone, ANYONE. Especially some talking head in front of your classroom or on your tv. Verify for yourself what is going on to your own satisfaction.
Now, the “Fair and Balance” at Fox, is 2 Democrat’s talking over the 1 Republican, I try to watch Fox Business and then Internet.
Major problem is the so called “Conservatives” like Bill Kristol & Peggy Noonan
bashing Romney and Ryan every week. Both are old line Republicans that think Nation Building and sticking our opinion into every country. Using our young men in the Military as Cannon Fodder for their position.
One thing Obama may be right about, America is tired of using up our Military Men and women in the Middle East. War with no plan for Victory. We need to make sure Iran and the rest of the Turbin Heads understand the penality of attacking America again. We have the Power and should use it we are hit again.
Although the LSM will NEVER admit that Fox is not a conservative network, all conservatives MUST LEARN this fact – FOX IS NOT CONSERVATIVE!! About the same time Glenn Beck left Fox, a Saudi prince, Al-Waleed bin Talal, bought shares of News Corp (parent company of Fox) and became its second largest shareholder, next to Rupert Murdoch. Since that time, Fox has “progressively” (tongue in cheek!) been tilting toward the left.
I agree 100% with Celeste, stick to the Internet for your news, and just like the Russians did back in the good old days of the Cold War, learn to read between the lines! You can’t trust our TASS media one iota!! For those of you with inquiring linguistic minds, there was an old Russian saying about “Truth” and “News”, which sadly fits our media all too well today! (“v Pravde net izvestii, i v Izvestiiakh net pravdy”)
Watch there be a poll out next claiming Obama to be leading with the Tea Party. **roll eyes**
just a thought, that the press is SO in the bag these days for Obambus, that should the unfortunate happen and he is re-imaculated, the press will immediately get MUCH WORSE. one can hardly imagine. like the worst years of Soviet Pravda – only completely voluntary.
amazing, ain’t it
Cannot agree more…
The problem will not go away with Obama.
The media will seek to sabotage/destroy his successor at every turn, and can certainly be expected to “turn up the heat” on racialist social issues as “punishment” for the obviously racist-inspired voting that de-throned Dear Leader.
They control the narrative, Obama was just the compliant empty suit groomed to parrot their Leftist dreams.
We can send “The One” packing, but we will “pay” for it with (at least) 4 years of incessant handwringing about how “dark” the mood of the country has turned, how frightening this neo-fascist rise of racism and Islamophobia has become.
Defeating Obama is not Victory over them, any more than Guadalcanal finished off the Japanese. They are deeply entrenched in evey po-dunk School District, Police Department and Community College in the nation. They are well fed, and heavily armed, with constant re-supply via un-touchable Union Contracts and an Alliance Media that controls the “airspace”.
It took 40 years to dig those fortifications, and taking them by storm will be a costly, long term enterprise. They expect us to be dashed against the ramparts, sacrificing all just to breach the perimeter and plant, for a moment, a flag of victory, while they fight on, smug in their assurance of infinite impenetrable depth….
Obama is but their Fortress at the coast, while we must reclaim an entire continent…
I agree that the MSM belong to the enemy and defeating Obama will not change that. But in a country with a free press, which I want to keep, the only viable solution is already under way. The MSM market share is declining so that the MSM are approaching irrelevance. I used to take the MSM seriously, now I think it a laughingstock at best. No one I know who is not liberal things otherwise.
I don’t know what the media of the future will look like, but it won’t be as in the past.
Oops. Thinks otherwise.
I agree, this is their last hurrah. I would not be surprised if they’ve been promised a bailout in O wins a second term.
– will see a couple more papers go under.
I’d love to believe that but I’m afraid they’re already on the case. The huge population uninformed public use start pages like Yahoo and a lot of these former print media editor gurus have already signed on(these corperations are owned by folks with the same agenda).
I saw a story the other day on yahoo(and this is typical) headline “New law in many states could disenfranchise 10 million voters” As you informed folk have already concluded, it was a story about voter I.D. laws going into effect. Of course with the web, there is an infinite number of alternatives, but is the uninformed general public going to take the time to explore. Nah, they’ll just read and believe the yahoo headline on the way to their favorite sports or entertainment site.
So you see, the battle is not over the media or the political agenda, it’s over the minds of the people who give it the power. That of course would be the MSP (media shepherded public)
Agreed. My workplace used to have a few copies of USA Today floating about but in the past three years that has stopped. There are almost never any newspapers in the area anymore.
The media news monkeys have failed again to realize that they don’t really control anything. Even the socialists know that they are ignoramuses who are just spouting what they are told to say/write.
If Americans hate anything, it’s a lackey or lackeys. Though I realize that notion is changing, still no one wants to be seen as a drooling tool for anyone else. Of course, that gets intertwined with “acceptable” droolage when referring to the current regime but still, after awhile, people don’t like being seen as yes-men for anyone whether they are or not.
Thus, the news monkeys are being ignored and they don’t like it. Thus Matthews and Madcow yell louder as if it’s the 1950′s and they’re talking to a foreigner who doesn’t speak English. Like yelling will make them understand.
But, for me, I simply ponder the way they have wired their own brains, willingly, to operate only in a politically correct world, with fairness and unicorns at every turn and only the evil conservatives to blame for everything. No personal responsibility, no accounting for reality, nothing. It’s quite remarkable.
“No personal responsibility, no accounting for reality, nothing…”
Great point, kinda reminds me of a religious movement that has a crescent and star on top of its domed buildings.
I have to agree. The news gathering operations in this country have to change to a more informative, less subjective instrument, which means the old “legacy media” system doesn’t work anymore. Fortunately, the freewheeling internet seems to be taking care of that. There will always be partisan, non-objective outlets, but the internet means that we’re free to shop around to find facts and draw our own conclusions, which we weren’t able to do when legacy media controlled what we saw and heard.
I agree with you, Pettifogger. The LSM is very rapidly becoming irrelevant, and I expect that it will change greatly from as we’ve known it in the past. They say the Internet is to blame – I disagree!! I’d much rather sit at the table (or in my recliner on Sunday) with a newsPAPER, than look at a screen. But, I do not trust what I read in the news anymore.
The Chicago Tribune was known for DECADES as a conservative (even Republican) newspaper – not anymore! Nowadays, it isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. My “hometown” paper, the Kalamazoo Gazette, used to be VERY conservative. But, years ago it became more and more progressive, until now, it barely exists anymore – only comes out 3 days a week, and on the other days you have to read it online in a consortium with several other Michigan newspapers. WtH kinda newspaper is that????
There are twice as many conservatives in the US as there are liberals, yet the media thinks I’m going to PAY MY HARD-EARNED MONEY to buy their biased, liberal crap!!! I don’t think so! Therefore, reluctantly, I am adapting, and I get my news online.
I’ve got a back up plan too, in case the ‘bamster “kills the Internet” with his switch. I’ve got a couple of short-wave radios, which both work well. I figure I’ll have to either look for a pirate “Radio Free America” (sad, ain’t it!), or I’ll have to go “foreign” – Deutsche Welle, BBC (both liberal, but at least not ‘bama propaganda!), or maybe even Radio Moskva! Of course, seeing what we see today, I wouldn’t put it past the ‘bama to jam the short-wave spectrum, ala Brezhnev!!!
I dunno about BBC– yes, it’s liberal, but it most definitely IS an Obama lackey. They were among the news outlets who demanded to know if we were out of our minds when we elected GW Bush.
Today, they are as much in the pocket of Obama as any US outlet.
Yea, mamapajamas, you’re right about BBC. I remember they seemed to lead the charge against us re-electing GWB, and then spearheaded the “world election” of Labamba.
Thank you for stating so clearly the frightening times we live. You defined so clearly what has been in the back of my mind for some time.
If I may be so presumptuous as to believe your comments are addressed to me, you are very welcome, and I thank you. (If not, excuse me for being so arrogant!
)
Continuing, I’m not worried about Obama…I’m worried about our local TEACHERS UNION that is, and WILL BE 100% ideologically and FINANCIALLY, in-the-tank for every Socialist Ideal that comes down the road..
They were Rabid Socialists when Reagan was president, and they wil continue to be. Same with our local paper, police chief, and everything else.
You dont go INTO government or Journalism or public service UNLESS youre a Socialist/Statist anymore.
It will be impossibly difficult to “restrain” them from further advances, to say nothing of the re-capture of whats been long, long lost.
Romney/Ryan must be the tip of an Iceberg, a 40 year push not to “improve” the health, vitality and attractiveness of The Patient, but to merely stop the bleeding, and prevent the imminent DEATH that we face.
We can argue aerobics vs circut training, free weights vs machines, AFTER we’ve restored the breathing, stopped the bleeding, treated for shock, and regained conciousness.
Root,
Yes. However what cannot go on will not. All these public unions are coming to the end of other people’s money. One by one they will either capitulate or fall. The voters are tired of having a gun put to their heads as teachers, cops, firefighters and state and fed bureaucrats rob them blind.
Right you are. This fight has only just begun. Ousting Obama is only the beginning. The left will continue to turn the ship of America toward a Islamo/Communist State. The good news is now we know. The tip of the subversive iceberg has been exposed. We all have to pick fights at the local and state levels and win. Over and over and over.
Just some thoughts on cleaning up the mess left behind by Obama. First, neuter the public employee unions by passing Rand Paul’s federal right to work statute. Second, decouple collective bargaining on wages from benefits as Wisconsin has done. Both of these measures will weaken union power.Third, amend the Federal telecommunications rules to strengthen the public interest duties of FCC licensees regarding public affairs programming. I don’t want to return to the Fairness Doctrine but the only rational criterion for allocating FCC licenses is which applicant will better serve the public interest. The heart of that obligation consists in ” keeping the electorate informed about matters relevant to informed decision-making bybthevelectorate and democratic self-governance. Fair and balanced REPORTING of the issues rather than spinning for one side or another should be the gold standard. To get the mainstream media’s attention, perhaps President Romney should propose that all federal licensees will be sunsetted at the end of their current three year term. New applicants will be given a chance to win those licences. Existing licensees like CBS, ABC and the like will have to demonstrate that their coverage of public affairs (candidates, issues, elections) was ” in the public interest”. Absent fraud, they should not be able to do so. It’s time to hand the public microphone over to other citizens. Fourth, prosecute Eric Holder and David Axelrod
for obstruction of justice and audit every SEIU official. That is the only defense against the Chicago fascists.
While I’ve had no doubts about voting Obama out, my wife has been undecided. Once the story broke about Romney calling out the “47%”, my wife made up her mind. She’s now going to vote for Romney solely because he had the cajones to bluntly speak about a major problem.
I am confused here. Romney destroyed his campaign by the his convention performance and Obama ensured his re-election with his. Yet the ratings for both conventions showed less people watched them than previous conventions. If no one watched them, how does Obama get his post convention bounce of 5 to 6 points in the polls? I think one must ignore the polls. However, I do want to make an observation, with all that is going on both here and abroad and Obama is either leading or even in the polls. That either says something about the pollsters or the people being polled, does it not?
CONGRATULATIONS–YOU ARE NOT A FINALIST IN THE “DIVORCED FROM REALITY” CONTEST.
“The Dem-Rats Convention is Over, THUD”
Let us shout, Hallelujah, “The Won” was in town
He was the “bestest” that he’s ever been.
We put on “happy faces”; turned our frowns upside down,
And pretended “Great Leader” will win!
The “News” gave its all to keep hidden the truth–
(Corrupt Media was his bitch from the start).
‘Tho its influence is dying; and its concept of “proof”,
Made the worst of “Three Stooges” look smart.
Still, we muddled along; “It’s all part of the show!”
Didn’t Barry look, “So hip these days”?
“His ears never looked better, and his golf scores, you know,
Are deserving of the “little people’s” praise!
Some Elites dared to come; so the rabble did swoon,
At the “great ones’ high-tech/high-def glow!
Presidenta V. Jarrett commanded the room,
Even Godfather Rahm came, you know!
We bravely ignored those unflattering facts,
Which our Media Whores could not shroud–
(So many of the “faithful” chose to miss “all the acts”—
It was suicide to be seen in our crowd!)
We swaggered with guile when we cut back the size,
Of the spectacle put on for the rubes,
Finding only one-in-three present, we brazenly lied,
Claiming BO asked for a “more intimate group”!
So we made stronger Kool-Aid—graft and gifts did abound!
We spent as if “Kings for a Day”!
So what if we lose? After BO’s lost His crown,
We’ve still BILLIONS safe hidden away!
No rights reserved – copy; send; improvise; add stanza; share the fun!
There was a real post convention bounce for Obama, that even the more honest polls, gallup and rasmussen, showed. The false media spin though was in assuming that bounce would be a permanent trend, when in fact the post ocnvention bounce has already faded back to a dead heat, as also shown by gallup and rasmussen. I suspect most of the media trumpeted pols showing big obama leads among swing states, either have dem skewed samples, or were taken right after the dem convention, when obama did have a real, but very brief lead. I expect any swing state polls taken today, with non-skewed smaples, would ahow what gallup and rasmussen show nationally, a dead heat. And due to a still real, although partly closing, enthusiasm gap, I expect this dead heat is actually a slight romney lead.
I know what you are saying but I do not buy it. Polls can be shaped but TV ratings are very much cut and dried. You either watched something or you did not. The ratings for both conventions showed people did not. Again how can you have a post convention bounce, from a convention that the ratings state no one watched? I believe all those polls are contrived to influence Romney voters.
Simple, people formulated their opinions based on what the LSM told them about them.
that has to be the most out of touch post i have seen today.
Conventions have exactly zero influence on what happens on Election Day. You need to come up for air.
I was leaning Rumney ’till I got my food stamp card. Who knew Pepst is food?
What happens if America falls off the fiscal cliff? It already has – markets have partly priced in the automatic cuts. But Washington’s partisan deadlock causes ruinous uncertainty Heidi Moore, Monday 17 September 2012
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/17/america-falls-off-fiscal-cliff?newsfeed=true
What Would The Leftist Media Do If:
1) A Republican President and Senate did not produce a budget for more than three years?
2) A Republican President, House and Senate passed a legislation that the majority of the country hated, that they never read, that they used bribes and kickbacks to pass, that was a hidden tax, that was passed in the middle of the night in reconciliation barring participation of the Democrats?
3) A Republican President targeted individuals with drones for summary executions, including American citizens?
4)A Republican President went on TV and did not know the amount of the national debt or the deficit?
5) A Republican President serially offended the Israeli Prime Minister and refused a meeting with him to go on the View, Letterman and a show with the pimp with a limp?
6)A Republican President serially skipped his intel briefings, instead suggesting he gets all the info he needs from his telepromter printouts?
7)A Republican President gave a speech in which he told union workers and pensioners “You didn’t earn that” in discussing their sweetheart deals and kickbacks for votes?
8)A Republican President and his UN lackey went around claiming that a carefully planned and orchestrated assault on an undefended ambassador was the result of an unseen movie trailer,or a Lady Gaga song, or a Piss Christ “art” exhibit?
9)A Republican President and his feral dogs rousted at midnight an “artist” with whom they disagreed politically, for exercising his right of free speech on some trumped up “parole violation” charges and perp walked him before the world?
10)A Republican President and his Department of Energy cut a sweetheart deal with a flailing energy company, cutting out the American public from recovery of their money and giving it instead to their cronies?
11)A Republican President attacked a private corporation and stopped it from opening a new plant, utilizing the NLRB, for trying to expand in a pro-union state?
12) A Republican candidate for President hid his college records, his associations with hateful characters, attended a church for twenty years that preached racial hatred, has dinners with an avowed advocate against Israel, (would they hold that tape hostage, at the request of the donor…have they ever?)
I’m not saying what would happen if they treated both sides fairly and evenly, I’m asking what would happen if they did to Democrats what they do to Republicans?
What would happen if academia only told the conservative point of view and indoctrinated students?
If entertainment lampooned and ridiculed leftism and Democrats?
Here’s the answer: We would be a one party country on the Federal level.
The fact that it remains above 50% is a miracle in face of the rigged game we suffer.
I know exactly what they would do, THEIR JOB!! But only for a republican
“….The fact that it remains above 50% is a miracle in face of the rigged game we suffer.”
And the fate of the world rests on the shoulders of this 50%.
What should be an easy question and solution for some reason is hard on people. Our country is a mess financially, and we are fortunate enough to have someone running for office with real world business experience in turning around floundering corporations. While a country is much bigger than a corporation, Romney seems to be what the doctor ordered for an ailing economy.
Forget the socialist projects and spending that have occurred over this Administration’s watch; we get to deal with the situation at hand. Who would you rather have steering the ship: someone with experience doing exactly what we need, or someone who claims to have the credentials but no proof of any life experience in financial matters? He was President of the Harvard Law Revue but never published a thing, a state Senator who got his seat running unopposed and who voted “present” over 120 times when he could have taken a side in issues. He sponsored no laws of any consequence, but by merit of being young and giving a good speech ended up getting elected.
It’s time we quit playing along, tell the Emperor he has no clothes and get on with fixing our great country.
On Intrade right now, the betting is:
Obama to win: 71.7%
Romney to win: 28.2%
So the odds against Romney are now nearly 3 to 1.
If you’re so sure that Romney can win, place your bets now. You’ll make quite a bit of money.
I tried to play on intrade awhile back, but because of some obscure law they dont accept credit cards or paypal for payment to buy your shares. You have to do a bank wire, or mail a check to some place in ireland, and I susect a lot of people who otherwise would be inclined to bet there dont, because it is too cumbersome of a procedure.
US law makes it a criminal act for Americans to bet on elections. I don’t know how many Americans place bets in a foreign casino, but the bulk of these InTrade punters are foreignors. Outside the US and outside Muslim lands and in Europe (where internet gambling is rife), Obama is still the Messiah.
I didn’t know that. And the media who cite Intrade odds apparently don’t either- oh wait. They probably do and just don’t care.
Here’s a 100% sure thing to bet on.
Leftists are manipulating Intade.
It took trillions to manipulate the stock market in the fall of 2008. Intrade is a gnat compared to that.
Anybody who really believes obama is 3 to 1 to win is either a fool or has inside knowledge that Romney’s staff is stuffed with closet leftists. The latter is far more likely.
For odds on: a Fox media poll gave Obama a 13 to 1 favorability by unbalanced reporting from the MSM. If Romney is only 3 to 1 behind on Intrade, then he must be pushing the largest source of odds against him uphill.
I don’t know much about Intrade but when I clicked on this page, I saw it read Romney at 100%. What am I missing here?
That page refers to Romney winning the Republican nomination which he has done thus 100% probability.
What everyone is now focused on is his winning the Presidential election.
As to the polls, unless you get a look at the underlying questions and details of the sampling demographics you cannot determine how fair and balanced they may or may not be. Ad in the media bias and it’s nothing more than a spit in the wind.
OH REMEMBER REMEMBER THE WORDS SPOKE THIS SEPTEMBER BY ROOT 83
3. The Root ’83……….
The problem will not go away with Obama.
The media will seek to sabotage/destroy his successor at every turn, and can certainly be expected to “turn up the heat” on racialist social issues as “punishment” for the obviously racist-inspired voting that de-throned Dear Leader.
They control the narrative, Obama was just the compliant empty suit groomed to parrot their Leftist dreams.
We can send “The One” packing, but we will “pay” for it with (at least) 4 years of incessant handwringing about how “dark” the mood of the country has turned, how frightening this neo-fascist rise of racism and Islamophobia has become.
Defeating Obama is not Victory over them, any more than Guadalcanal finished off the Japanese. They are deeply entrenched in evey po-dunk School District, Police Department and Community College in the nation. They are well fed, and heavily armed, with constant re-supply via un-touchable Union Contracts and an Alliance Media that controls the “airspace”.
It took 40 years to dig those fortifications, and taking them by storm will be a costly, long term enterprise. They expect us to be dashed against the ramparts, sacrificing all just to breach the perimeter and plant, for a moment, a flag of victory, while they fight on, smug in their assurance of infinite impenetrable depth….
The devil thinks he is winning too.
Tom, Tom, Tom,
Come now, didn’t you get the memo? This election is over and Obama won! We would appreciate it if you would stop letting the facts get in the way of a good story.
Momentum shifting in Romney’s direction? How you do go on! Haven’t you seen the rainbows and unicorns? I did! I saw ‘em right above the fold on the New York Times and the Washington Post. Then I flipped on my TV set and there, in living color, a glorious rainbow and a cavorting unicorn! It had been sick, but it got well because of Obamacare. I flipped through all the main channels, CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC and each one had a rainbow and healed unicorn. I was so happy, I got in my car and flipped on the radio. I was relieved to hear an AP story, with attribution to Reuters, that unicorns and rainbows had been sighted all across the land and that all was well. I turned the radio off right away to save gas, ’cause its a little expensive right now.
Tom, you need to get your act together. Mitt Romney had a house fall on him and it fell on him because he didn’t pay taxes on it. Yeah, and now everyone, (everyone apparently but you), is voting for Obama. Everyone.
Your going to be all alone, Tom. And I know, because Maureen Dowd and Chuck Todd told me and David Axelrod told them. David Axelrod knows because he knows Valerie Jarrett and she knows the Wizard.
Damn it Tom, you don’t know anything. You and your polls, and your science, and your facts, and such.
It’s over Tom.
Samizdat, please don’t ever write things like that when I’m drinking soda. It hurts very badly coming out of my nose….
The best part of this whole thing is, the Democrats are well down the raod to believing their own lies.
Remember Carter against Ronnie? Right up to the election, the Democratas KNEW they had it sewed up. They beleived their own polls.
Let them believe. Please, God.
Here’s another cute possibility: People have predicted possibly severe civil and/or racial unrest in the wake of a Romney victory. I will not say whether I actually predict that to be the case -
But I will say that the monstrous behavior of our MSM organs, and these thoroughly discreditable polls, will have MUCH to answer for if it happens. THEY are selling Obamatrons the happy lies, they are setting them up for shock and outrage… they are not preparing them for what I certainly hope is the inevitable result of Obama’s appalling misrule. (Anyone remember Kerryans saying on election day 2004, “The exit polls showed Kerry won, they HAVE to be correct! The actual votes must be invalid!”)
Whatever ugliness might follow a Romney victory, and I sincerely hope I am wrong about that, but that which might happen can be laid squarely at the doorstep of Matthews et al.
There MAY be violence after a Romney win but think of how horrible the four years will be in the event of an Obama reelection. I believe conservatives will have to leave; it will not be safe here with him back in power not having to worry about reelection and having the media cover up the ugly plans he has for us. It’s a scary thought. I’ll rather have one night of possible violence than four years (at least) of hell on earth.
I still think Romney will win big. I base that on what happened in 2010. The 2010 midterm elections were a giant referrendum on Obama and he and the Democrats got killed. It was the worst Congressional defeat since the 1930s. Much of the hatred against the Democrats was driven by the economy and Obamacare. So tell me, what has changed since then? The economy, if anything, has gotten worse, Obamacare is still as unpopular as ever, and people are fed up with Federal spending and a national debt that has soared over $16 trillion. And let’s not even talk about a “stimulus” that stimulated nothing but more debt. So, tell me, if people were that angry in 2010, wouldn’t they only be angrier in 2012? The Republican base is about as motivated as I’ve seen it since 1980 with the Carter landslide loss, so why can’t the Republicans and angry independents do it all over again in 2012?
Like I said, I think Romney will win and win big. The only thing we have to do is vote, get others to vote with us, and pull him over the goal line.
The only difference I can see is now, instead of blaming everything on Bush, Obama now devides blame between Bush and the Repub house. I agree that the state of the country, and Obamas policies, have not changed a bit. The only chance Obama would have is if he can somehow fire up dems as much as repubs were fired up in 2010.
Like you, I think Romney will win – just not big. I predict a squeaker.
Two reasons where I can’t agree with your complete justification. First, the demographic of the country has changed significantly since 1980.
But more importantly, Obama is the Left’s dream candidate. They are so fully and personally vested him, unlike 2010 where it was just the House and Senate candidates, this is The One.
I believe the Left will be out in force. I just believe Conservatives are more attuned and present this go around at anytime since Carter.
I predict Romney winning something similar to 2004 margins. I hope I’m wrong. This bubble I live, Obama will be lucky to win one vote in three. I don’t have a good gauge on these “swing states.”
I would like to see those of us who wailed against the dangers of Obama in 2008 absolutely justified with a vote. I felt some vindication in 2010 – but not nearly as much as I would watching Obama marched to the curb.
Absolutely, I agree. Even tho Obama was not on the ballot in 2010, the midterms were all about Obama, Obamacare and the Tea Party. MSM jokers pretend not to remember, but two years ago, Democrats seeking re-election were busy avoiding appearing on the same stage with Obama. And in few cases where Obama campaigned for Dems, the hapless soul lost. Remember Mass. – the seat that was supposed to be owned by the Kennedys?
Obama may be hoping that voters have memories as short as journalists. Hope on.
Shhhhhhhhhh! Let them sleep!
Agree. Let’s keep the noise down until the polls close on Nov. 6. About midnight I’ll be watching MSNBC…and the leg with a thrll going up it just may be mine.
I feel better today about a Romney/Ryan win than I did with Mccain/Palin in 08. Media is the ugly step sister to the dem party. Swing states needs to go deep grassroots /family/friends/social and drag them to the polls. Every single vote is crucial in swing states this time.
Sinz54
On Sunday, Obama was trading at $5.82. By Wednesday, the price had bumped to $6.32. (Shares on Intrade convert to percentages, so the share move means his likelihood of winning went from 58 percent to 63 percent.)
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58 percent to 63 percent is 3 to 1 or 71 percent?
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You and Oblamus must have had the same math class.
I don’t share your optimism, but am heartened to read your post. The question we need to start considering is if a) Obama wins, b) we keep the House, and c) we don’t take the Senate, what do we do next? Four more years of the last four years will be awful, no movement in any direction. I’d be interested to hear what people think.
Give him 80% of what he wants. After all, before things can get better, they have to get worse — sometimes a lot worse. And they would.
On Letterman – Obama knows how much the deficit is. Surely he can’t be THAT stupid. He simply didn’t want to say the number as it would have elicited gasps from the audience.
Precisely. Obama realized he was boxed in and he could only look like a fool or a knave depending on how he he answered. Obama (probably wisely) chose to look like a fool, because the public is much more forgiving of fools than knaves.
But not for much longer…..
I have found myself blogging less and less over the past two months as the Obama drum beat has gotten louder and louder. The rage of the left and Obama are palpable. And yet…….
…..over the past several months I have talked to many people who have come over from the dark side of voting for Obama in 2008 and are now firmly entrenched with Romney. Not sure how much of that is a love of Romney or a fear of Obama and the progressives. And I’m not talking about uninformed people or people from the middle or right. These are intelligent hard core Democrats, albeit not necessarily socialist Daily Kos types or the east coast elites and fellow useful travelers, but people nonetheless who have probably never pulled a Republican voting card in their lives.
This, including myself ( a long time conservative), is what I call the quiet majority who I believe are going to hand Obama a resounding defeat by at least 5 points and perhaps as high as 8.
I gotta believe Obama will soon be living in Pritzkers house on Oahu and I will be the happier for that and wish him well if he will just STFU.
Thanks.
Good insights.
I know many who voted FOR Obama in ’08 who will vote AGAINST him in ’12. I know of no one, and I mean NO one who voted against him in ’08 who will be voting FOR him in ’12. I may be just engaging in wishful thinking, but I think this election is going to be a HUGE blowout for Romney and the Republicans. We never get everything we want as this is politics but I think we conservatives will get about 80% of the candidates we want this time out.
At a certain, Romney has to start leading in these states, by at least 2,3 points. You can’t be down by 3 points in states like Virginia a week before election and expect to win.
If he’s not leading more or less around Halloween, he’s finished.
He better come out swinging in the debates.
all team obama needs is a promouncement from the messiah:
‘this thing is in the bag.’
given his track record to turn gold in s***, even his supporters would at him making the same assessment the msm is trying to make for him.
seriously, there isn’t a thing that he hasn’t ‘given away’. do libs really trust obama to hold on to a real/imaginary lead?
I remember a quivering in the polls, the last time a race was this close…
‘al gore invents the internet’ and the roof caved in. cause and effect? or just a media collapse…’we can’t seriously carry any more of this moron’s water.’
the lead, which i seriously doubt exists, is not from obama, but from the media, themselves.
BREAKING: “Obama up 14 points over Romney….on Saturn, Neptune, and Uranus. Axelrod and Messina also upbeat about tentative poll results for Obama from Jovian moons Io, Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto.
Dude, it’s in the bag.
The only Anus Obarry is up on is Reggies.
Last year, I predicted the Media would skew polling in Obama’s favor after the conventions. It’s really all they have, no record, no positive agenda moving forward, and failed Presidency.
Big Media: Lie for Obama, 2012!
Somebody pull me out of this deep blue funk.
The wagon riders will vote for their monthly check.
The pullers will lose.
The tipping point was reached AFTER the 2008 election.
Please somebody tell me I’m crazy.
Please.
Okay — amiably — you’re crazy. Either that or you’re guzzling the dem ideas so fast you can’t think. Look, this is America. Yeah, we have some number of moochers. We’ve always had them. But they’re not the majority and we’re not worse than in the seventies (do you remember the seventies? I DO. Astrology and UFO landings were acceptable talk in public like. And everyone knew socialism was the future.) Yeah 47% pay no taxes, but do not neglect the number who WANT to pay them. We’re a center-right country. The polls consistently come back with government crybabies around the 30% mark. And most of those don’t even bother to vote. Be of good cheer.
Yes Sarah,
How many people within the 47% are there because of Obama or other Democrat policies. Do you want a job with an opportunity or do you want breadcrumbs from the Government?
An interesting thought occurred while reading your comment (not sure why, it’s not really related). A side effect of high gasoline prices is that more people cannot afford to have a job because it costs too much to get to a job that doesn’t cover those costs. So: keeping the price of gas high translates to more people on handouts, and voila! …more Dem voters. I never made that direct connection before.
The country’s founders were more in tune with the power of the press than a lot of Republicans. Putting a premium on the importance of a free press to a free nation, they provided it with all kinds of constitutional supports; guarantees.
However, the founders assumed journalists would try to print the truth as they saw it.
Which, of course, is not what the reporters at the New York Times do. Or the Washington Post. Or the LA Times. Or the Chicago Tribune. Or what countless other big papers and countless smaller city and town papers do. When it comes to the upcoming political election, the media (and now I’m including the broadcast media) have about as much desire to print the truth as Baghdad Bob. Oh, maybe not all. But certainly the majority are in the bag for the socialists, the leftists, the Marxists, the Obamas or whatever you want to call them.
The founding fathers didn’t foresee this kind of corrupt media. I’m tempted to say, “in the same way the Obama administration didn’t foresee the need for ramped up security at our foreign embassies on September 11, 2012.” As I write this, the thought goes through my mind that many foresaw the need, but ignored it for one reason or another.
While Tom Blumer’s article provides some reassurance to me that the polls aren’t pointing quite so obviously as one might think to an Obama win, I’m shifting my concern to what can be done in the short and long term to deal with a politically corrupt media. It’s not enough to say that in time the market will solve the problem. I don’t think it will.
Months ago, I thought Mitt Romney should create a flanker campaign that specifically went after the bias in the media. But the idea went nowhere.
My question remains: how to solve the problem of a politically corrupt media.
Should legislation be enacted so that political lies on a mass scale designed to affect an election be criminalized? Should the public be given a cause of action so private citizens can successfully sue? I don’t know. In my opinion, though, something must be done. If we go to great lengths to assure a free press, maybe we should go to the same length to prosecute a corrupt, bias filled press. Any thoughts?
As to my feelings about the outcome of this Presidential election, I can’t shake a sick feeling I have in my stomach that Mitt Romney is running a terrible campaign. He has no strategy. His commercials are weak in terms of impact. They’re not memorable. Which I believe is because Romney hired political hacks do the work. Since nobody here ever comments on that, I’ll leave it at that.
One irony is that although Obama always bad mouths our system of free enterprise, he hires the most enterprising creatives, the ones that sell you the Prestone and Pepsi, to spread his message. The Ogilvy’s. The BBDO’s.
To overcome this, Romney would have to overcome about a 6% Obama lead from the starting gate, a percentage which includes leftist voter fraud which now has no deterrent. Eric Holder, a criminal attorney general doesn’t prosecute criminals that he politically agrees with. The voter intimidating Panthers skating free three years ago is the most obvious, heinous proof of this.
Media bias is entwined with polling bias. And a miscreant of a President is making the most of that.
Worse, I’m afraid that the constitution, to Obama, is something to overcome not be our legal guide over all.
Our flag? Well, Obama has shown to all how he sees himself in relation to our flag. He recently desecrated it.
All in all, there’s nothing Obama won’t do; no law in won’t break, to steal four more years worth of diabolical schemes to stand this nation on its head and eventually cut it off at the knees.
Rachel,
I’ve always enjoy your commentary! 100% correct!
“…However, the founders assumed journalists would try to print the truth as they saw it…”
No they didn’t. In 18th century America the “media” consisted of anyone and everyone capable of printing a pamphlet. Some were fair, fewer were balanced, most were unabashedly biased in one political direction or another. And it was good. People knew what they were getting from whom. The “media” was unwittingly d) revealed as corrupt by default on the day someone declared it to be universally unbiased and – more importantly- ethical and truthful by default. The closest we’ve come in modern times to having an actual “free press” is talk radio and, less so, Fox News, to counter-balance the leftist controlled so-called “free press.” Obama gets a second term, kiss those goodbye.
Have to agree with Harry.
The “newspapers” of the FF’s day were complete dreck, full of unabashed as well as uninhibited lies about the other party’s candidates. Sourcing? Who cared? If the reporter could make up a better story than existed, he did so. They were affliated with a specific party and completely unapologetic about it. Journalistic objectivity is a completely modern fabrication, dating I believe from Walter Lippmann’s influence on the journalism of his day as a way of countering the influrence of the Hearst empire.
Thus the expression of the time was, “Freedom of the press means anyone who owns one”. I’m not sure but I think it was Ben Franklin who said it. (I’m too lazy right now to do a search on it)
They also engaged in duels back then, which served as a check against particularly egregious offenses. Frankly I think dueling should be brought back. It served a useful purpose, i.e. deterring inferior men from letting their mouths write checks their asses couldn’t cash.
If anyone is delusional enough to believe the mormon will win, go get rich!!!
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/us-presidential-election/2012-us-presidential-race-e212304268
The mormon is now at 10/3. For those of you who don’t gamble, you put down 3, the mormon wins and you get 10, plus the 3 you put down. Where can one get that kind of return?
A bet on Obama is at 2/9. Have to be 9 to win 2.
It’s Obama in a landslide. Money is always right.
I think the Mormon will beat the Muslim Moron.
Wow, I have not checked in with you rightwingnuts in a while but I haven’t seen this kind of delusion in 4 years!! Right around the same time you were saying similar things about the polling for Obama then. Dudes, you gotta face up to the fact that your candidate stinks this year.
“Your time for self congratulation is nearly at an end, highness.”
Obama smells to Meca.
Re who is delusional — How ’bout this little nugget:
Through 2004 every incumbent who was above 50 percent (approval) at this point (in mid-September with Gallup) won, and every incumbent who was under 50 percent at this point lost. As of today, Obama is under 50 percent.
Obama is at 47% approval with Gallup. Though that’s higher than all previously defeated incumbents, it’s nonetheless low enough to foreshadow a narrow Obama loss unless there is a decided shift in Obama’s direction. And the momentum is currently not going in the direction of Mr. “An ambassador’s death is a bump in the road” Obama at the moment.
Rasmussen: Currently, 43% of voters nationwide are certain they will vote for Romney, and 41% are just as certain about voting for Obama.
And debates have not started yet.
Is it going to a landslide for Romney?
Oh, for heaven’s sake! Don’t rouse the MSM to the changing reality. Let it come as a complete shock to them on 7 Nov 12. Just imagine the breast-beating and cadderwalling that will ensue. Besides, with increasing majorities not trusting the MSM, who cares if they never cover the story?
I can see it now. President-elect Romney on November 7, 2012 holding up an iPad with the MSNBC headline screaming OBAMA DEFEATS ROMNEY in 56-point font.
An insufferable ass is an insufferable ass, of course, of course
And no one can talk sense to an insufferable ass, of course
And especially, of course, if the insufferable ass is the famous Barack Obama
Go right to the source and ask the insufferable ass
He’ll give you the answer that deceivers will endorse
He’s always on a dissemblers course
Talk to Barack Obama
Barack Obama just yakkity yaks a streak and wastes your time of day
Does any sane person even believe anymore a single thing he has to say?
An insufferable ass is an insufferable ass, of course, of course
And this one’ll talk in prevaricating circles til his voice is hoarse
You never heard of a talking insufferable ass?
Well, listen to this
He is Barack Obama!
Yes, betting on elections is a felony under US law. That is why Visa or Mastercard or Amex or Paypal will not accept such transactions. Aiding and abetting a felony is also a felony.
InTrade is an European operation and, as such, subject to EU online gaming laws. Ireland is an EU member. EU laws on gambling are much more tolerant than US law.
InTrade is an online “trading exchange”, a sort of a futures trade. You take a position on a future event and lay your bet upfront. It’s not just elections. InTrade takes in bets on Nascar as well.
This brings RCP into focus. On two counts. WTF is RCP doing, posting InTrade odds, when it is a felony.
And secondly, WTF is an RCP Average? RCP accepts all poll results as long as the pollster is a registered entity. But, should not RCP exercise editorial control? Does RCP not know what is a scientific poll and what is not?
It seems if you take a thermometer to a location where temperatures swing between minus ten and plus ten. (THere are such places on earth, indeed). If you leave it to to RCP, they will tell you the average temperature is zero degrees.
I think the honchos behind RCP have to get real, real fast.
See unskewedpolls.com
Do you have any insight into their polling or analytical methodology such that they could “unskew” existing polls? I couldn’t find a link to an explanation on the site.
I am curious about that as well. This polling site is circulating around, but when I checked it out a couple of days ago, I couldn’t find a way to vet reliability/credibility.
Joey, thanks a bunch. You’re a honey.
If the American voting public are moronic enough to re-elect the profound FAILURE that is Barry HUSSEIN Soetero Kardashian America’s first Unqualified, Inefficient, Incompetent, Gay, Celebrity, USURPER President. Then they will deserve no sympathy whatsoever from anyone and Americas RAPID slide in to a 3rd World nonentity will continue apace.
50% of American say they dont know what Religion the USURPER is . What does that tell you? Well it tells you that 50% of American are morons. Lets just look at his life history and family ties.
Born to a Black, part ARAB, Kenyan, British Citizen, Muslim, alcoholic, bigamous, womanizing, State Department designated Undesirable Mooching Alien, absentee Father and an underage, to bestow her American Citizenship on him, mother and adopted by an Indonesian Muslim STEPFATHER. ALL members of BOTH his Paternal Families are MUSLIMS even his Kenyan Grandmother, who pre election his LYING Election Committee told us was a Christian, has not long returned (AFTER his election of course) from the completing the Haj at Mecca.
He was brought up and schooled as a Muslim in BOTH the State and the Catholic run MULTI FAITH schools he attended in Jakarta.
BTW when Barry was in Indonesia you had to be an Indonesian CITIZEN to go to State School, so maybe THATS why the Passport , College and Student application, results and loan records are very carefully and jealously HIDDEN(talk about Romney’s Tax returns he has got nothing on what Obambi is HIDING).
His contemporaries at school , one of whom is the current head of Garuda Airlines the Indonesian national airline,remember him as a devout Mosque going MUSLIM.
He took KORANIC STUDIES, a subject ONLY Muslims take at school, and also MENGAGI ( the study of the correct pronounciation of Koranic Arabic which only DEVOUT Muslims usually bother with) at the Mosque, a fact he himself ADMITS in his book DREAMS. He is on record as saying ‘If the Political will goes against them I WILL STAND WITH THE MUSLIMS” and also “the Muslim call to prayer is one of the MOST beautiful sounds on earth” .
He can also recite, and has frequently been heard to do so, the Shahada in perfectly accented Koranic Arabic , must be a result of his MENGAGI studies. According to Muslims anyone who says the Shahada, which calls Allah the PARAMOUNT God (which betrays Islams POLYTHEISTIC roots or else why say ‘Paramount’ unless there are there other LESSER Gods????), and claims Mohammad as his messenger , IS A MUSLIM.
So who is Barry HUSSEIN Soetero Kardashian America’s first Unqualified, Incompetent, Inefficient, Gay, Celebrity USURPER President the man who tells us he has ‘ALWAYS been a Christian”? Well for a start he is a BLATANT BAREFACED LIAR.
It also raises the questions :-
“Can a 20 YEAR member of a RACIST, anti White, Anti Semitic, Anti American “Black Liberation Theology” Church, which is closer to Islam than it is to Christianity, be truly considered Christian? ”
and -
“Why if he indeed is no longer Muslim , as he most definitely and conclusively was, have Muslims not issued a FATWA against him calling for his death as an APOSTATE.”
To all those wondering how the Obamination still rates 40-47% support. Sit down and just think about it a little. There are 13% of the population who voted for him because he looked the same as them I refer of course to BLACKS of whom 96% RACISTLY voted for him and that same 96% RACISTLY support him still and will continue to do so no matter what . Its what RACISTS do. Then there are the 20-30% of Americans who are dyed in the wool brainwashed left wing Islamophile PC, MC moonbats, who also are incapable of change or logic or common sense.
So you see the Obamination is SURE of between 33-43% Left Wing moonbat and RACIST support no matter what he does . Add to that the Celebrity worshiping 10% of the population who gat all their information from the Lame Stream EneMedia ONLY and you can see he is well on the way to re-election. As insurance he and the corrupt DEMS are going ‘hell for leather’ for the nailed on moonbat voters ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT AMNESTY will bring them. You have been warned.
Thomas: Excellent point. Personally, I feel all the public polls are horse pucky. You only have to look at how the candidates themselves are behaving to know who is truly ahead.
On CBS (a network not known for its conservatism): Obama said Libya and Egypt were a “bump on the road”. He said our high unemployment was also a “bump on the road”. He claimed Israel’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear intentions were “noise”.
IF THIS WAS THE BEST MATERIAL CBS COULD OFFER OF OBAMA, WHAT THE HELL WAS LEFT ON THE CUTTING ROOM FLOOR????
Mitt Romney: why don’t aeroplane windows open?
You obviously missed this important poll:
September 19, 2012
Poll: Romney Still Doing Well With Voters Who Have Never Heard Him Speak
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2012/09/poll-romney-still-doing-well-with-voters-who-have-never-heard-him-speak.html#ixzz273GELVX5
ATTENTION CHRIS MATHEWS:
That tingle going down your leg, and your girly voice are a result of your insistence on wearing bikini briefs one size too small. Swtitch to boxer shorts ASAP, or you nuts, already pitifully small, will shrivel and fall off.
The overall percentage matters less than polling in swing states and electoral colleage models. I agree with the author that Rasmussen is the most reliable pollster. They nailed it in 2008. Anyway, in the past couple of days over at Rasmussen, Obama has increased his lead in the electoral college and there are more leaning left than leaning right states. Thems the facts. Though it doesn’t change what we have to do, which is to work as hard as we can every single day to make sure Obama is not re-elected. Every. Single. Day.
Ha Ha! Complain all you want about polls. Romney is losing because he is a terrible candidate (how bad must a candidate be to be losing to Obama this year!?). Romney can’t keep his stories straight — he has no opinions — no one likes him and no one should.
Pollsters have been dead-on for elections since Reagan-Carter (and even there it was clear why they were wrong by so much — a very late debate changed the balance, and there was international politics at the last second).
Romney better hope for a bump in the debates — that or a world crisis that he manages to handle better than Obama this time.
Boy, did you ever get it wrong. Embarrassing.