Election Day is almost upon us. The final Gallup generic ballot poll shows that Republicans are poised for a historic win, going into the vote with a whopping and unprecedented 15-point advantage over the Democrats.
Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
Yes, you read that right — Gallup has the GOP’s House floor at about 60. That’s been near my ceiling for them for several weeks now: I’ve been projecting a GOP pickup in the House of 60-64, with a Senate pickup that leaves the Democrats in the majority by a seat or two.
All of that said, now is not the time for complacency. The cliche that “all politics is local” remains true, and an election shenanigan here or there could be enough to flip a seat, and if there are enough of those, they could influence either the final balance of power in the House or, in some ways more importantly, the balance of power in state Houses and Assemblies.
So if you haven’t voted yet, read up on our Voter Fraud Watch page and our Primer to know what to watch for, and if you own a smart phone, go to American Majority’s web site and download their Voter Fraud app. They have versions for iPhone and Droid. When I spoke with AM’s Drew Ryun about the app last week, he said they had already had 13,000 downloads. The app will help you capture any questionable behavior or events that you see at the polls, and will help you report them as well. We will be monitoring AM’s reporting web site throughout the day on Tuesday and will be watching to highlight cases around the country.
If you don’t have a smart phone, just make sure to take a digital camera with you to the polls, and if you see something untoward, capture all that you can about it and report it to the proper local authorities and let us know about it.
Update: Among the allegations of election misconduct are the accusations of “intimidation” by King Street Patriot and True the Vote poll watchers in Harris County. As Rhymes with Right explains, though, the poll watchers in question are acting within state law.