Virginia GOP Poised for Big Comeback
It’s been a rough four years for Virginia Republicans.
In 2005, after controlling the governor’s mansion for eight years, the GOP lost to Democrat Tim Kaine. Republicans also lost seats in the state legislature. The next year, George Allen, who was already being mentioned as a candidate for president in 2008, lost a Senate re-election bid he should have won to a Republican-turned-Democrat named Jim Webb.
In 2007, Virginia Republicans suffered further setbacks when they lost control of the state Senate and barely held on to the House of Delegates. Then, last November, came what seemed liked the coup de grace; in one day, the Republican Party of Virginia lost a Senate seat and three congressional races. The party also saw the state go for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1964.
That was one year ago.
Today, with Bob McDonnell at the head of the ticket, Virginia Republicans are headed for a big comeback. Based on all the available polling, it’s clear that not only will they win back the governor’s mansion, but they will also hold onto the lieutenant governor’s office and the attorney general’s office. They will also likely increase their majority in the House of Delegates.
What accounts for such an amazing turnaround in such a short period of time? It all comes down to a little bit of luck and something we haven’t seen from Virginia Republicans lately: a well-run campaign.
Unlike his Democratic opponent, McDonnell faced no opposition for the Republican nomination. While Creigh Deeds spent the better part of a year engaged in a bitter, nasty primary fight, McDonnell ran a general election campaign and saw the payoff in the form of consistently high poll numbers and superior fundraising.
Even after Deeds won the nomination, he failed to excite the Democratic base or attract the voters who gave the state to Barack Obama last year. Possibly due in part to the fact that he comes from the one of the least-populated, most rural counties in the commonwealth, Deeds also suffered problems in Northern Virginia, an area that has been key to Democratic victory over the past four years. Much to the Democrats’ chagrin, McDonnell has been much more competitive in the region than previous Republican candidates, and it’s one of the reasons he’s poised for victory.
The importance of Northern Virginia also played a role in the controversy that erupted in late August over McDonnell’s 20 year-old college thesis. The thesis, written when McDonnell was a graduate student at Pat Robertson’s Regent University in Virginia Beach, came to light in July thanks to an article in the Washington Post.
God save us from more Nelson Rockefellers.
When you run Atila the Hun, call me.
I live in NOVA and have been following the campaign pretty closely. I’d say the thesis issue backfired on Deeds and his boosters at the partisan Washington Post (which endorsed the complete slate of Democrats for all offices this year). They thought they had a “macaca” moment and instead they came up empty — worse than empty, since in recent polls most voters say Deeds has run a largely negative campaign, most likely due to the publicity surrounding the thesis. Just goes to show that the Washington Post doesn’t have the clout it thinks it does. To be honest I’ll probably get more pleasure from watching the Post lose than from watching McConnell win.
As a Virginian, I disagree that this is not a referendum on the Obama presidency. I know many people, myself included, who voted for Obama and are now distressed at the extreme socialistic tendencies we see in the current Democratic leadership in Washington. We want a state government that will oppose, as much as it can, the policies the Democrats are trying to cram down everyone’s throat. Virginians have always been an independent lot, and that hasn’t changed, despite alterations in our demographics. It has been several decades since one party has held the governor’s mansion for more than two consecutive terms.
McDonnell’s thesis became a moot point when it was learned that more than 50% of those on McDonnell’s staff were career women; his own daughter was a fighter pilot in Iraq and is now in a leadership position with the Pentagon. Virginians see for themselves that McDonnell doesn’t conduct his business the way Deeds wants desperately to convince us he does. Deeds has no coherent strategy, other than more of the tax-and-spend tendencies of the Democrats. Tim Kaine’s failed governorship has done much to erode confidence in the state’s Democratic party.
Didn’t the Democratic ‘takeover’ of Virginia start in 2001 with Mark Warner’s election as Governor and not in 2005 with Kaine? Kaine continued the domination, obviously, and now Warner is a Senator, but I’m just pointing out that there have been 8 years of Republican diminution and not just 4.
“Deeds also suffered problems in Northern Virginia, an area that has been key to Democratic victory over the past four years.”
These are the people who are pro-abortionist secularists. They have been voting on behalf of their cultural war values instead of their pocketbook issues. Alas, the crap has hit the fan. The American economy is severely threatened by the policies of the Democrats and their “moderate” Republican allies. Bob McDonnell’s campaign may very well have been destroyed in 2006 over his university thesis paper. Three years makes a huge difference.
You’re not giving enough credit to McDonnell’s effective rebuttal of Deeds attacks, in particular McDonnell’s ads featuring testimonials from working women. Too many times, GOP candidates hide or try to explain away issues such as this; McDonnell dared to say ‘BS’ and backed it up which not only helped him on this issue but inoculated him against further Deeds attacks.
Deeds was endorsed by the Washington Post in the primary and in the general election. They’ve been pounding the “thesis” issue to death. (It was hilarious how McDonnell’s own beautiful and accomplished wife and daughters won the day). And it’s shameful that the Post has done no critical seeking into Obama’s background.
McDonnell’s lead is an Obama/Reid/Pelosi backlash. I hope it’s a thorough trouncing and that voters show up in droves, in spite of the news that shows McDonnell is so far ahead. I’m hoping for an overwhelming defeat of liars, looters, and czars.
And I hope the Washington Post sinks into oblivion.
The Democrats & the thug-in-chief, Obama overplayed their corrupt hands by their incessant power grabs; therefore, I see Virginia & New Jersey as a harbinger of things to come for the clueless Socialists in 2010. We the people do not want to be slaves of the State while the power hungry nincompoops in Washington attempt to extinguish our liberty. The day of reckoning is coming & we will not be stopped. Little political earthquakes have already ruptured in other states as Republicans are voted in power in state races…
There is one other aspect to this campaign that has been overlooked. For almost a decade Democrats have fanned a nuclear-hot hatred of George Bush and everyone one else who fails to bow the knee to the Democrat Party.
Everything – and I mean everything – was W’s fault. Terrorism, 9/11, the Iraq War, and the economy as well as teen pregnancy rates, failing schools, bad weather and athlete’s foot were blamed on the unilateralist cowboy.
But with Bush in retirement, the Democrats are at a loss for someone to dehumanize in order to keep members of their party opening their wallets and turning out at the polls. Sarah Palin, Dick Cheney and Rush Limbaugh have all had their turn as the progressives’ Great Satan, but attacking these targets lacks the same appeal that demonizing Bush did with the al Qaeda wing of the Democrat Party. Conspiracy theorists obsessed with Trig Palin’s birth do not set Democrat hearts athumpin’ the way 9/11 Truthers did, and (unlike Bush) Palin, Cheney and Limbaugh have the nasty habit of fighting back rather than going fetal when criticized by the Democrats.
Had not the GOP decided to bail out Democrats by running left-wing extremists like Christie in NJ and Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election, Republicans might be looking at a clean sweep next Tuesday.
Liberty Jane,
Let me second your wishes for the WaPo. If I owned a parrot, I would not consider the WaPo, the NYT, the ChiTrib or the LAT as suitable material for lining the bottom. I’d be afraid the poor bird might be made ill by being so close to such a large amount of rancid leftist tripe.
The sooner all of those propaganda outlets, along with CBS, the various flavors of GE TV and ABC run aground on the shoals of bankruptcy, the better. I’d gladly pay $500 to stand on the streetcorner and watch the editorial staff of the NYT hauled off in Black Marias to face well-deserved charges of treason. I’d be cheering lustily the whole time!
Tuesdays gubernatorial elections are bracket #1 in the “Who will be Sarah Palin’s VP” Playoffs
My state of Virginia produces former governors the way Kentucky produces Colonels. As much as I support McDonnell, he becomes a lame duck when he takes office.
Virginia’s governors cannot serve two consecutive terms, and ,therefore they cannot really get anything done. It also leaves a very thin record for a Presidential run which is why Warner, our former govenor and current senator decided not to run.
A governor of Arkansas has a better chance of becoming a President.
Virginia needs to change the law and permit governors to run for two consecutive terms. Until we do we will never really address our transportation and education issues and our 19th century politicians continue to barely deliver 20th century roads and schools.
As a Virginian, I know very well that the state GOP has a long and undistinguished history of self destructive behavior. The last gubernatorial election was lost because they nominated a candidate (Kilgore) who focused on negative campaign ads, pandered to the social conservative factions and provided few constructive ideas. He lost many moderate voters including myself. The tables are turned on this election cycle. I hope the current trend will be long term for the GOP but I’m not holding my breath. If they can focus on substantive issues (economic, taxes, etc) and steer clear of Pat Robertson’s social agenda they will attract more moderates and win elections. McDonnell has done a good job doing this. I think most moderates could care less about his past connections to Pat Robertson as long as he avoids pushing his agenda. I hope his candidacy becomes a model for the GOP nationally.
#10 Mwalimu Daudi:
“But with Bush in retirement, the Democrats are at a loss for someone to dehumanize in order to keep members of their party opening their wallets and turning out at the polls.”
Very apt observation.
What I see is that moonbats have a group-think so often at odds with anything remotely resembling our common values and heritage that they make caricatures of themselves.
When you couple that with the near Orwellian enforcement of their communal orthodoxy to create this hive-mind, you get a mass of very angry and nasty people.
It is in the inherent repulsiveness of Leftists’ collective personalities and the unthinking inanity of their initiatives that conservatives will be reborn.
Folks just don’t like being pissed off, and being around other people who are pissed off all the time.
Normal voters saw the back of Bush, and I suspect that they will wish to get rid of the rest of the Bush-era fixtures as well.
Time to redecorate the Capitol.
#13
Don’t knock Col. Sanders!!!! Lets hope there’s not some excise tax on his handiwork to pay for health care!
The weird thing that might happen is that McDonnell wins, and that Obama tries to woo NOVA back for 2012 election with !gasp! more federal boondoggles!
#13 Harry:
“Virginia needs to change the law and permit governors to run for two consecutive terms. Until we do we will never really address our transportation and education issues and our 19th century politicians continue to barely deliver 20th century roads and schools.”
We don’t need to change a thing.
I’ve been a Virginian for over 40 years, and wouldn’t live anywhere else, (and I can, since my job isn’t geographically bound).
We have good fundamentals to our economy: mining, agriculture, high tech, gov spending and services,(or have’nt you noticed that near every exit on I-81 has at least ONE college or university off of it?
We are consistently rated among the best places in the nation to do business, (this year we’re ranked #1).
Our public school systems are some of the highest rated in the nation. Now if your LOCAL system is bad, then you require a LOCAL solution, see?
And the roads/traffic is symptom of our success.
People want to move here or have to move here because this is where there is work to be had.
For whatever faults may have existed in the past, Virginia conducts is politcs, and it’s lifestyle for that matter, in largely a very genteel manner.
And having a one-term Guv’nah has been an established part of that tradition.
Don’t mess with success.
#2: Bob McDonnell is a very conservative Republican; he’s no Rockefeller Republican. And he is going to will by 10+%. Go Bob!
#17 Bilgeman
You are the epitome of the 19th Century Virginian that won’t even get us to the 20th Century, much less the 21st.
In Hampton Roads,where I have lived for 57 years, we don’t have the roads we need because the power is in the backwards-looking General Assembly.
Hampton Roads is one of only 5 ports in the entire world that can handle deep water cargo ships. We also have the Atlantic fleet. We are strangling because the General Assembly cannot find a solution.
As for local education problems, the General Assembly steals money from the Lottery and uses it to directly subsidize peanut farmers. Our local school children then are given the chance to raise funds for the Commonwealth by going door to door after school and selling… PEANUTS.
The only reason Virginia seems to score so well in education is because of Northern Virginia. Without that region the rest of Virginia would rank with Mississippi.
Don’t change a thing? King George no longer appoints our Governor, we need to empower a modern executive.
19 Harry . . .
Ouch! Now you’ve gone and done confused the experts with facts and context.
@ #14 Chris:
I’m across the river from you in MoCo, MD, but… thank you!
I hope the current trend will be long term for the GOP but I’m not holding my breath. If they can focus on substantive issues (economic, taxes, etc) and steer clear of Pat Robertson’s social agenda they will attract more moderates and win elections.
I share your skepticism. The emphasis on arcane social issues also turns off leave-me-alone Goldwater conservatives. To paraphrase Phil Gramm: They ain’t running for preacher.
What accounts for such an amazing turnaround in such a short period of time? It all comes down to a little bit of luck and something we haven’t seen from Virginia Republicans lately: a well-run campaign.
Perhaps there is aso an Obama factor at play.
@15 Bilgeman:
“It is in the inherent repulsiveness of Leftists’ collective personalities and the unthinking inanity of their initiatives that conservatives will be reborn.”
They do remind you of the BORG, don’t they?
“Barrack Obama Redistributionist Government”
Soon to be an embarrassing chapter in American history.
The Obamatrons may think resistance is futile, but we ain’t giving up without a fight.
13. Harry wrote: “Virginia’s governors cannot serve two consecutive terms, and ,therefore they cannot really get anything done. It also leaves a very thin record for a Presidential run which is why Warner, our former govenor and current senator decided not to run.”
This is a lame excuse for non-performance of VA governors. Take a look at Sarah Palin’s record of accomplishment as governor of Alaska. In two years, Sarah Palin developed a substantial of achievement. The American media has never touted that record, but it’s been in the Canada Free Press; google it.
A governor who can work with people on both sides of the aisle can accomplish much; a governor with a positive agenda for growth (not increased taxation) and an interest in securing the well-being of the people in the state can do much. Palin did wonders for Alaska in her brief tenure, and would have done much more had Democrats not been hell bent on forcing the State of Alaska to waste its money defending frivolous ethics charges against a very productive governor.
So, these jokers masquerading as VA governors have no excuse for non-performance.
It’s all well and good for a resurgence of GOP power in numbers, however, the Conservative message needs to be exemplified by truly conservative up and coming republican politicians. The proper course of taking power back is to make clear the conservative message is THE CONSERVATION OF THE CONSTITUTION. The new battleground needs to completely revolve around the Constitution. We need to get out of the semantics game with liberal-socialists. Pin liberals in the corner by making them constantly have to argue AGAINST the Constitution.
You are never going to win a war with the MSM by arguing ‘social’ issues. They easily divert any answers requiring logic with practiced responses. The Constitution takes less time to read then the average Cosmopolitan magazine, learn it inside and out, be ready to quote it verbatim, and push the argument to force the Democratic party to become the anti-American party. I can not believe the GOP can not grasp this simple concept.
Drivel all you want with a ‘health care’ question talking about LOGICAL solutions such as HSA’s, tort reform, interstate policies, etc. Yes they are good ideas. But in the precious little air time the MSM gives GOP members in on-air ‘debates’, the correct ‘Republican’ version of the bill should be that should NOT be any version to start with, that the Federal government does not have the Constitutional authority to force all Americans into health care. You may actually be able to get some of our citizens to Google ‘US Constitution’ and actually READ it. Force them to argue about the Constitution, plain and simple. Push the buzz words Constitutional Conservative at every chance, and be sure to tag the left properly as Liberal-Socialists EVERY SINGLE TIME.
Uhh-bama would have a hard time coming out in public in one of his standard crybaby soapbox ‘press conferences’, and denouncing vocal Constitutional Conservative members of the GOP as constantly accusing the Democrats as being ‘anti-Constitutional’. Now extrapolate what his argument would be to counter it…He can’t exactly blame Bush for the Constitution. We need to make the term ‘Unconstitutional’ as ubituous as ‘failed Bush policies’ or ‘war for oil’ or ‘the no party’. You only need to come up with one easy to remember catch-phrase as a Constitutional Conservative. As just about every liberal-socialist ‘idea’ IS unconstitutional, claim it so and make them prove it otherwise. The problem being with the GOP, a lot of RHINO’s will just have to go away in the process.
I disagree with Harry. Looking at it the other way, a VA governor knows he has four years, and four years only, to get things done. No running for reelection, no constant campaign. Just four years to accomplish his goals. Not to mention total incompetents who get elected only have four years to screw things up. That’s worth a lot to me.
#19 Harry:
“You are the epitome of the 19th Century Virginian that won’t even get us to the 20th Century, much less the 21st.”
Why thank you! That’s the nicest compliment that anyone’s given me all week.
“In Hampton Roads,where I have lived for 57 years, we don’t have the roads we need because the power is in the backwards-looking General Assembly.”
It wasn’t the fault of the General Assembly that VDOT took 5 years to finish the I-64/West Mercury Blvd interchange, friend.
A simple cloverleaf interchange…they put those up in SoCal over a weekend; like a concrete toadstool after a heavy rain…Jeeze!
You don’t have enough roads because you have too many people in too small a geographical footprint, (that and too many of you are trying to live in VB and Chesapeake and the Peninsula while working in Norfolk). I spent 2 years tied to the Coal Piers at Newport News and another two tied to the pier immediately south of the NOB’s “Destroyer Row”, (yes…on THAT weird, strange rust-bucket! It’s even weirder on the inside, believe me.).
“Hampton Roads is one of only 5 ports in the entire world that can handle deep water cargo ships. We also have the Atlantic fleet. We are strangling because the General Assembly cannot find a solution.”
What the HECK are you babbling about? You know that I’m a seaman right? I can rattle off 12 deepwater ports around the world without breaking a sweat. And FYI, Norfolk, like most East Coast US ports, needs regular dredging to maintain it at the world-standard 42′ depth. (This is a function of our alluvial geography coupled with founding our cities as far up freshwater as we could to escape the effects of the wood-boring worm on wooden ships’ hulls). That dredging is a subsidy that benefits YOUR rice bowl, primarily.
So you’re the homeport of the Atlantic Fleet…this is a problem? I’m sure that Philadelphia and Charleston would have been MORE than happy to keep THEIR Naval Bases, (And then maybe Friday Afternoons on the HRBT or the VB Toll Road would be better, but you might not have a job, so there ye be).
And while you’re dissing Richmond, let me acquaint you with a nifty little facility that’s up in the Valley between Front Royal and Winchester…the Virginia Inland Port. Are you familiar with it?
http://www.portofvirginia.com/facilities/virginia-inland-port.aspx
What it REALLY does is break the Ports of Baltimore and Philly’s “rice bowls”.
See, Richmond, which you seem to take such a dim view of, pays a subsidy to move cargo delivered to and from the VIP to Hampton Roads.
Truckers get to avoid I-95, (always a Good Thing), and shipping companies don’t have to burn the fuel and sail, (under pilotage, which ain’t free), all the way up the dredged shipping channel to Baltimore.
So that right there is a state subsidy that puts money into the Roads’ economy.
You’re Welcome.
“The only reason Virginia seems to score so well in education is because of Northern Virginia. Without that region the rest of Virginia would rank with Mississippi.”
And you think that this is all about the money? There’s absolutely no impediment under Commonwealth law that I’m aware of that would stop a county or city from setting up a local tax district solely to benefit their own schools.
Jack Herrity in dear ole Fairfax set up a special tax district to widen VA Rte 28, so why this couldn’t also be done for schools escapes me.
Unless you’re more interested in having someone ELSE foot the bill to fix YOUR problems.
But it isn’t really about the money.
This nation achieved something like a %96 literacy rate using little more than a McGuffey’s Reader, a blackboard, and one-room schoolhouses,(but that was back in that 19th century of mine that you disparage so), and the homeschooling people are PROVING that it can be done again.
“Don’t change a thing? King George no longer appoints our Governor, we need to empower a modern executive.”
Take a look around at our bordering states, Harry, which one would you prefer living in?
Maryland? Don’t make me laugh! Their motto is: “If YOU can dream it, WE will tax it”…to subsidize the “Baltimore Lifestyle”, no less.
Carolina? There’s some really nice places there, but thanks…no.
West-by Gawd-Vajanya? They only WISH that they had OUR problems, plus they’re ruled by the Byrd political machine,(so to an extent is NoVa, but nothing like the mountain people are).
Kentucky?
We’ve got a pretty good racket going on here in the Commonwealth, even if nobody gets everything they want all of the time, it’s a darn sight better than anyone else’s juke-joint here in the Mid-Atlantic.
Again…don’t mess with success, ESPECIALLY when there’s no good and compelling reason to do so.
So Rusky gets punked because he does not fact check (Not the first time)? Wow, what a surprised.
Oh, and when contronted that he was punked, he defended himself by saying “we stand by the fabricated quote because we know Obama thinks it anyway” (Yeah good try to save face, what a loser)
After so many years of mis-labeling and mis-characterizing others he gets smacked down by the NFL “Not For Limbaugh”. Way to go NFL, great job!
Harry,
Not a single problem you note in comment #19 would be solved by giving a governor two consecutive terms. (Note for non-Va. readers: An individual can serve two terms as governor, just not consecutively.) The issues you discuss could be solved by strong local representation in the state legislature.
One reason for the law is that in the second term, governors tend to lay back and do nothing but tax the people and line the pockets of their friends. Virginians understand that. We see it happen all the time at the national level (see Bush, George W.; Clinton, William J.). Virginia is a strong state economically and educationally and in just about every other way you could name; I believe that giving a governor just one term at a time forces him to actually do something, because he’ll be applying for another job at the end of four years. If he does nothing, he’ll have nothing on his resume. The law actually encourages better performance from our governors.