Venezuela’s Election Lunacy: Results and Consequences
Christopher Hitchens observed a few weeks ago that el Presidente Chávez, whom he had visited in 2008 along with Chávez’s close friend Sean Penn and whose antics he still follows, is barking mad. As Hitchens put it:
Chávez … is very close to the climactic moment when he will announce that he is a poached egg and that he requires a very large piece of buttered toast so that he can lie down and take a soothing nap.
Unfortunately, a nap is not what Chávez has in mind:
In a televised broadcast from the Miraflores presidential palace, Chavez spoke out against opposition leaders: “They will never enter here again, the immoral ones, the mobsters, the stateless ones, the traitors. I am going to say this until the last day of my life.”
In Venezuela, where Chávez is by no means alone in his dementia and lunacy does not augur defeat, insanity is more useful as an excuse for whatever happens than as valid predictor of the future. Even trying to figure out what happened can induce insanity.
Turnout was reasonably high, officially at 66.45% of Venezuela’s approximately 17,000,000 registered voters. “Small incidents” at a few polling places were “controlled,” according to the National Electoral Council, which stated: “This shows responsiveness not only of the CNE, but also of our Bolivarian Armed Forces and Plan República.” According to the attorney general: “The election was totally normal and was remarkably among the most successful ones in the Venezuelan history.” However, shortly after the close of the polls, opposition civil association Súmate said it received 911 complaints: 760 from voters, 114 from election witnesses, and 56 from poll workers. There were also various complaints of significant irregularities reported here, here, here, here, and elsewhere.
After a far longer delay in reporting than anticipated, the official preliminary results were reported at 3:30 a.m. EDT Monday. The president of the opposition alliance had stated earlier:
After all this time telling us that we have the most modern, most automated, most perfect election system in the world, and after they promised they would publish the results two hours following closure of polling sites, more than six hours have passed after the polls closed and results have not been announced.
We are waiting, because we do respect the law (which prevents publication of election results before the first official bulletin.) We know what happened, we already know what happened.
It seems likely that the official announcement of results had to be delayed until approved by el Presidente Chávez and that he was unhappy with them.
According to the official preliminary results, the Chavista party (PSUV) “won” at least 96 of 165 seats (58.2%) in the National Assembly. The PSUV previously had 139 seats (84.2%), with the rest held by various post-2005 breakaway leftist parties, including PPT and PODEMOS with six seats each. Chávez does not much like the breakaway parties, the “traitors, defenders of the empire and bourgeoisie.” The PSUV had a net loss of 43 seats.
The recently but only grudgingly united opposition parties (Unidos para Venezuela, with the unfortunate acronym MUD) got at least 61 seats (37%). Following the last election in 2005, which they boycotted, the opposition parties had no seats, so while the net gain of 61 seats is perhaps a bit less significant than might otherwise appear, it is not all that much less significant in view of the gross disparity between popular votes and seats obtained. However, as explained below, it should make a big difference.
The electorate had been thought more or less evenly distributed. According to the official preliminary results, the PSUV got 5,222,364 votes and the MUD got 5,054,114, a difference of 168,250 votes (1.64%). According to MUD, its candidates got 52% of the popular vote.
[Changes] to the electoral system rammed through by the government meant that a narrow popular vote lead is enough to give the PSUV a landslide victory. The changes abolish proportional representation, even though it is written into the 1999 constitution. And poorer, rural states where Mr. Chávez has more support will be significantly over-represented in the new assembly.
The districts more heavily supportive of Chávez also have more seats, for that reason.
PSUV winning between 95-100 seats out of 167 seems like a victory to me! I am sure the Democrats and Pres. Obama would like to win 60% of the seats in November’s elections.
Seems to me that only the demented and the lunatics would think that 60% of seats represnts a major defeat.
What do you say in a Communist Dicatatorship where the appearance of fair elections is only as good as a marionette play!
J.S.
Here is a compilation of the numbers of votes and resulting seats in the national assembly, based on the best available data. It is from this article in Venezuela News and Views.
Apparently Chavez has been studying the art of election day outcomes Chicago style, where majorities do not necessarily mean victory and voting does not require being above room temperature.
This is all very pointless. Chavez is El Presidente for Life. That is unless he completely self destructs and attacks Columbia, then he becomes El Criminal de Guerra for life!
Chavez relies on bribing the workers far more than brute force. In this respect, Venezuela under Chavez resembles China far more than, say, Cuba or the Soviet Union. This has the downside for the regime of being dependent on said workers’ continued support. If the oil industry collapses due to incompetence, so does the regime, for they can’t survive without the revenue from it. The workers will riot, and the regime will collapse for want of resources.
I don’t understand the 2/3rds remark, Chavez has the 2/3rds he needs to enact special enabling legislation. Chavez may have only 95 (96, 97?) of the 165 seats but since we can expect that within 2 months at least 30 of the opposition seats will be unoccupied due to various reasons ( I’ll bet combination of indictment and inability to make it to legislature ) Chavez should be able to get the 2/3rds he needs. All that he needs is the easy ruling by the Supreme Court that the 2/3rds requirement applies only to the seating members of the legislature. If that doesn’t work somehow, the Supreme Court will simply rule that for purposes of the a simple majority is a 2/3rds majority for purposes of special enabling legislation. Why do you think Chavez has put so much effort into ensuring the integrity of the Supreme Court?
You may be right; most anything can happen in Venezuela and usually does. That said, there will be lots of Venezuelans royally upset if what you suggest happens, and they get to vote for or against Chavez in 2012, assuming that the elections actually go forward. A noted in the article, “insanity is more useful as an excuse for whatever happens than as valid predictor of the future.” And, while Chavez may be barking mad, it’s probably useful to keep in mind that that does not necessarily mean that he is terminally stupid.
Chávez has announced plans to spend one billion dollars to construct “at least 25,000 homes” in the Caracas area. Disregarding the “at least,” that comes to $40,000 per home, a perhaps small amount in the United States but probably significantly more than is needed in Venezuela for what would be considered adequate housing. Significantly less would be needed in Pánama to make it happen – probably less than $10,000 per house.
Was this a reaction to Sunday’s election results? Most likely. It is also likely that a significant portion of the one billion dollars would be skimmed off the top by various government officials. Did the problem only recently come to Chavez’s attention?” Unlikely. This seems to be one step toward making the folks happy and, consistently with past promises, unlikely to go much beyond the talking it up stage. As noted in the linked article,
Let the games begin.
Mr. Miller, this was a great read. My wife is from Venezuela, and her family is slowly heading North…Just a quick question: You write: “Chávez’s decreasing impact internationally may continue regardless of the election outcome. It has had little if anything to do with his electoral legitimacy (he need only remain in power, and in many respects he has) and has depended on turning Venezuelan funds into hard currency and spending it externally.”
What exactly do you mean by “he need only…he has.” Thanks.
Thanks, Paul. I intended the sentences to mean that Chavez’ international stature has depended largely on his use of Venezuelan funds converted into hard currency and little if at all on whether his power to spend them has been obtained and held democratically. His international stature seems to be declining because the Venezuelan economy is in the toilet and will likely remain there until it goes into the septic tank. Hence, although he remains in power because he retains substantial control over the government, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the government to spread resources it does not have around internationally. Although China is to a large extent bailing out Venezuela (remind you of any other country?), there are domestic pressures to use even some of those funds domestically to enhance Chavez’ declining popular support; hence, the plan to spend $1,000,000,000 on new houses for the poor noted in Comment #7. That money will, apparently, be taken from the twenty billion recently promised by China and, if the plan goes forward, the funds will not be available for use internationally.
Hugo’s greatest laws: The seven miracles of Hugo’s Communist Authority:
1.There is no unemployment, yet nobody works.
2.Nobody works, yet the Grand Scheme is carried out.
3.The Grand Scheme is carried out, yet there is nothing to buy.
4.There is nothing to buy, yet there are lineups everywhere.
5.There are lineups everywhere, yet everyone has everything.
6.Everyone has everything yet everyone is dissatisfied.
7.Everyone is dissatisfied, yet everyone votes ‘Yes’.
Why does the Venezuelan police operate in groups of three?” A. “One can read, one can write and one to keep an eye on the two intellectuals.”
Hugo decides to go out one day and see what it’s really like for the workers, so he puts on a disguise and sneaks out of the gold domed Capital building in Caracas. After a while he wanders into a cinema. When the film has finished, the Anthem plays and a huge picture of Hugo appears on the screen. Everyone stands up and begins singing, except Hugo, who smugly remains seated. A minute later a man behind him leans forwards and whispers in his ear: “Listen Comrade, we all feel exactly the same way you do, but trust me, it’s a lot safer if you just stand up.”
This is the best explanation of the theory behind the disparity between the popular vote and the national assembly seats won. I hope it clarifies it completely.
Following the September 25 election, el President Chávez is feeling his oats. On October 3, he announced
He also vowed
He also
He also announced
Oh well. Chávez will be Chávez.