Upset Brewing in Tennessee?
A week ago, the only public polls of the Tennessee Republican primary on Tuesday indicated Rick Santorum was headed for a big win, perhaps by 20 points, over Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Now two new polls suggest the race has tightened considerably, and Romney is on the verge of scoring an upset win if the trend from the last few days continues in the state.
Coupled with victories in Maine, Arizona, Michigan, and Washington state in the last week, and expected victories in Massachusetts, Idaho, Vermont, and Virginia on Super Tuesday, Romney victories in two closely contested primaries in Ohio and Tennessee would clearly restore his firm leadership position in the race for the nomination. In Ohio, the two most recent surveys both give Santorum a lead of 2%, within the margin of error.
A new Rasmussen survey shows Santorum with a 4-point lead (34% to 30%) in Tennessee. Newt Gingrich, who hails from neighboring Georgia, where he is expected to cruise to victory in the primary in that state on Tuesday, might have been expected to do well in Tennessee, but he trails badly in the Rasmussen poll and other surveys of the state.
Last week, a poll was released with general election matchups in Tennessee that showed GOP candidates ahead of Barack Obama, but by less than the margin of victory of recent GOP presidential nominees in the state. The state shifted to the GOP in 2000, when home-state Democrat Al Gore failed to carry the state (he would have been elected president had he held the Volunteer State). In 2004 and 2008, the state voted more heavily Republican, both for President Bush and then John McCain.
In the only deep South state to have voted so far in 2012, Newt Gingrich decisively beat Romney in South Carolina. So a win for Romney in Tennessee would do a lot to project his ability to win even in states that are viewed as conservative strongholds in a region where he was expected to do poorly.
Nate Silver, the New York Times political statistician, creates projection models for states. In primaries, where poll results are generally less reliable than in general elections, especially in the period a few weeks before the primary election, he values much more the most recent poll numbers. On Saturday, his model indicated that Santorum was expected to win Tennessee by 7 points, and that result was based largely on a YouGov survey that gave Santorum that exact margin, 37% to 30%. Earlier surveys in the state had Santorum up by 18-20 points, but Silver largely discarded those from his forecast methodology. His model has not yet been updated for the Rasmussen survey in Tennessee, but it is likely that inclusion of this latest poll might lower the expected margin of victory for Santorum, and also decrease his chance of winning the state, currently pegged by Silver at 84%.
While momentum (the results in one state carrying over to the next contests) has not been a very strong pattern so far in the GOP nominating fight, it seems to be showing some strength in recent weeks. The succession of states where Romney has won is probably lowering the resistance of some Republican voters to his candidacy. After undergoing a rough patch in head-to-head matchups with President Obama, Romney’s numbers have improved a bit in the last week, and he now trails Obama by 4 points.
For much of the campaign season, Romney has pointed to his electability in a general election matchup with Obama as an argument for his candidacy. When Romney fell 10 points behind in that head-to-head matchup, it became easier for more conservative GOP voters to vote their hearts (for the non-Romney candidate of the moment) than to fall in line for Romney.
Of course, if Santorum holds on in Tennessee and Ohio on Tuesday, and also wins in Oklahoma as he is expected to do and perhaps wins the caucuses in North Dakota and/or Alaska, he could claim to be the candidate with momentum coming out of Super Tuesday. But the chances of that scenario playing out began to collapse when Santorum lost his lead in Michigan, and seem to be dropping each day since then. Santorum must now hope to hold off what seems to be a rising tide for Mitt Romney in the most highly contested states on Tuesday of Ohio and Tennessee or Romney will begin to create some real distance between himself and the other candidates, and make his nomination again seem inevitable.
Tennessee and Ohio are the states that could break the dam of the conservative resistance to Romney.
This is not an upset, it is the voter reacting to statements made by Santorum in the last 2 weeks on various subjects. When people believe their own smoke and mirrors, reality will give them a wake up call.
Or perhaps it may be because when Rick can portrayed weakly, it is reported. When Mitt does something bad, it gets ignored by the media these days.
He beat Rick up over funding for the olympics during the last debate. There is now a video which demonstrates that Mitt lied about it. The video has him bragging about obtaining more $ from the federal govt than any time before, even boasting about getting department of education money. The same video shows him promising to use every resource at the federal level as governor (I think the video is from 2002). He lied about it, plain and simple.
He lies about hunting (never had a permit). He lies about the individual mandate (another story which broke a few days ago) showed an op-ed that Mitt wrote for USA Today in 2009 where Mitt is suggesting to barry to embrace his plan in Mass, including the mandate, for his plan. Curiously, the op-ed had apparently been scrubbed from the archives some time ago.
Fact is, almost no reporting (including the drudge report) has occurred on the matters. These are potentially devastating if reported, because they reveal clearly that Mr. Massachusetts has a real character problem and a vast history of left wing ideas: signed a permanent assualt weapons ban in 2004, supported the Brady Bill, was Strongly pro-abortion, was left of Ted Kennedy for homosexual rights, supported man-made global warming, supported amnesty for illegals in 2006, supported stimulus in Jan of 2009 (then claimed he wasn’t supporting obama’s, even though it was the only stimulus being kicked around), refused to support an anti-gay marriage pledge in July of 2011, refused to sign the pro-life Susan B. Anthony pledge in 2012, supports open homosexuality in the military, and I could go on, but I think it makes the point:
Mitt has no conservative record as an elected official, but a very liberal one.
My point is that the fix is in: the establishment wants him.
“My point is that the fix is in: the establishment wants him.”
It is the individual casting votes, not the Establishment.
Considering the Federal government takes tax dollars from the States
and rebundles the money, it is the duty of a Governor to try
to get back those tax payer dollars for the State.
We need a definition for “Establishment.” It changes based on who
the individual wants to win the election.
Don’t you know Romney never does anything bad. never makes any blunders, or….misstatements.
there is no “establishment (what “establishment” is that?) fix” against santorum. simply allowing the sanctimonious sop to speak for himself is all it takes for his numbers to tank. I used to be reasonably okay with the idea of the guy – thought he might be lacking in the experience dept, but acceptable. No more.
he comes across as a religous zealot who wants to tell women what to do in the privacy of their own home – then *whings* about people not liking him, and blaming that on other people. He complete ignores how rush, hannity, FOX, et. al. have been completely in the tank for him, for months.
the current occupant is a whiner-blamer when things don’t go his way – I personally do not want another one.
That story was baloney. Not 1 time did Romney say the federal govt. should emulate MA. He was referring to states.
Ausonius, if NBC, MSNBC, or CNN could catch Mitt Romney in a series of lies, they would already have done it, and be chanting it on a continuing basis. Only your own prejudice–which your words, a conservative wish list, make obvious–keeps you from realizing that.
The country is just not as conservative as you would like. Mitt Romney, particularly with his tendency to casually show his wealthy, privileged background (and that is simple honesty of character, isn’t it?), is open and direct in his views (and he shows himself open to changing his views through reasoned discussion and hard experience, which ideologues and dictator-egos like Obama never do). He will be a hard businessman open to reason, as a President, and that will be not only necessary to get the US back on track, but a thoroughly refreshing change for the country, from the ridiculous Czar(s) now running it.
Conservatives are their own worst enemy now. Mitt Romney (and no other Republican candidate) would be 20 points up on Obama now, if not for their totally reckless opposition to him. He is, almost nonsensically, your enemy, just as he is the real enemy for Democrats in November, who would love to dissect him now as the liar you paint him.
The MSM found nothing wrong with McCain until he was nominated. Do you have no memory of 2008? Are you that clueless?
No doubt they will trash Romney about anything they can find on him. They would do the same to Santorum, Gingrich, and Ron Paul. Do you have any idea what we are up against? Go check out this mornings http://www.breitbart.com/ I think Romney is the only candidate we have who has the financial backing to get his own message out there. The chorus will be loud, but we have to go in there and root these Communists out of our government. ABO2012
Obama will outspend any candidate. Romney has the Romneycare issue that no other candidate has. Romney believes that Jesus Christ is the sexually begotten brother of Satan. That will be an issue in the Bible Belt. No other candidate has that problem. Romney is the Mormon version of Dole/McCain. Dump him now while we can.
at last, Rance reveals himself and the real reason self-proclaimed conservatives hate Romney – his religion. This nonsense about Jesus & Satan fools absolutely no one, not even the good old boys who listen to the Right Reverend Holler Hooter every Sunday at Antioch First Baptist.
You would be surprised to learn that far more of them see Santorum and his ilk as a threat than Romney, since Ricky from PA is one who consumed with people’s private behavior and how govt can regulate it. Southern folks don’t care for right-wing statists any more than left-wing statists. But your bigotry is on the record. Congratulations. Hope lightning doesn’t strike next time you whine about those intolerant liberals.
warvulture,
I revealed nothing. Simply stating what I know about the Bible Belt does not mean I necessarily agree or disagree. You show yourself to be a bigot!
Good post, Mr. Huffman. There is no MSM “slack” being cut for Romney. Just look at the reports of his “gaffes” which Fred Barnes, here:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/gaffing-his-way-victory_633118.html
talks about at length. The MSM would eviscerate Romney if they could, but they seem to be reduced to penny-ante attacks that amount to little. The biggest problem is in our own ranks. The most scathing attacks have been from supposed conservatives, mostly based on things that happened a long time ago, and for which Romney has done a mea culpa numerous times. In the case, say, of Obamacare, he promises to take action through executive orders and through Congress (we’d better elect enough Republicans, folks) to completely do away with it. This is word of honor, one term and out stuff, if he fails to do what he says.
Perhaps if we had stronger candidates to choose from, Romney would be toast. But all the strong governors are sitting on the sideline, and Romney is the only executive left standing. One can see that in his focus; Newt and Santorum are congressional gadflies, off to the moon or beating Satan back from our shores. They jumped into this race opportunistically – no money, no organization, no real preparation – because the heavyweights except Romney sat out. If either wins, it will be the equivalent of the 65th seed winning the NCAA basketball championship.
It would greatly benefit us republicans and conservatives to end this internecine primary battle and get on with the real fight to stop Obama from implementing his program, which he will do by executive order if he’s reelected.
Good post, Mr. Huffman. There is no MSM “slack” being cut for Romney. Just look at the reports of his “gaffes” which Fred Barnes, here:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/gaffing-his-way-victory_633118.html
talks about at length. The MSM would eviscerate Romney if they could, but they seem to be reduced to penny-ante attacks that amount to little. The biggest problem is in our own ranks. The most scathing attacks have been from supposed conservatives, mostly based on things that happened a long time ago, and for which Romney has done a mea culpa numerous times. In the case, say, of Obamacare, he promises to take action through executive orders and through Congress (we’d better elect enough Republicans, folks) to completely do away with it. This is word of honor, one term and out stuff, if he fails to do what he says.
Perhaps if we had stronger candidates to choose from, Romney would be toast. But all the strong governors are sitting on the sideline, and Romney is the only executive left standing. One can see that in his focus; Newt and Santorum are congressional gadflies, off to the moon or beating Satan back from our shores. They jumped into this race opportunistically – no money, no organization, no real preparation – because the heavyweights except Romney sat out. If either wins, it will be the equivalent of the 65th seed winning the NCAA basketball championship.
It would greatly benefit us republicans and conservatives to end this internecine primary battle and get on with the real fight to stop Obama from implementing his program, which he will do by executive order if he’s reelected.
I don’t know, I get this sinking feeling that Romney is going to win it all on Super Tuesday, or at least most of it. I think Romney just has too much money to be stopped, and that’s a sad comment on how to get elected these days. I know, I know, it’s nothing new, but to have elections bought and paid for is still irritating.
Romney’s money may just be our best shot at defeating Obama.
I’m not so sure that money will help Romney tomorrow, or in the general if he makes it that far. It all depends on the individual states. Outspending Gingrich helped him in Florida, but didn’t do enough to win him Missouri, Minnesota, and Montana, where Santorum won. He only got half the delegates in Michigan, though that may change due to shenanigans. The only way he seems able to win anywhere is to make himself the only candidate in people’s minds by media presence, and he won’t have that advantage in the general.
The silver lining I see in this is that Americans are proving themselves conservative, though maybe not well informed. Voters want a conservative alternative to Obama. O won in 2008 because, at the critical moment in the fall, McCain voted for TARP. Voters didn’t see the point in voting Republican after that, and voters won’t see the point in Romney because of Romneycare. I still think Obama prefers to face Romney because of that.
Santorum’s stalling because of the “Reverse Operation Chaos” that he welcomed in Michigan. I think conservatives are misreading that to think Obama wants Rick to be the nominee. If he does, then he’s misread Christianity’s power to throw off tyrants. Santorum’s big advantage as a devout Christian is proselytizing; Instead of catering to liberals for their votes, maybe he can make them conservative. Gingrich might have that in his favor, too, but he doesn’t strike me as reliable.
It all depends on information is getting out. Mainstream Americans are conservative- some of them just don’t know they are. Voters will only pick Romney if supplies an oath, signed in blood, that he’ll govern as such.
Be sure to read the delegate count after tonight. Romney is the only National candidate in the race. Yes, Gingrich will beat Romney in Georgia. Probably, Santorum will win in at least one of Tennessee, Ohio, or Oklahoma. Paul could possibly win in Alaska. But Romney will win at least half of these states and be the main rival to the victor in all of them. Gingrich can win the southern states, but any Republican will carry those states against Obama. Santorum could swing a couple of mid-western states but so can Romney. Santorum would have no chance in the Rocky Mountain region, but Romney would do well there. Ron Paul has a hard core of 10% of all the voters in his pocket, but he is not strong enough to win anywhere. I think, by this time tomorrow, Romney will have more delegates than the other three candidates will have as a group. Those are my thoughts on how things are shaping up. I will work hard for the election of whomever the Republicans nominate because there is no choice with a Communist in the White House.
It’s all about the delegates
The media is going to eviserate any Republican nominee. The problem with Santorum is that he steps into the traps set for him. Iknow that Romney is said to dance around questions, but with the main stream press we have, that is preferable to stepping right in. I hope he simply sees the traps. Gingrich is most aware of them, but I fear he cannot beat Obama.
Very astute, just look at the opening salvo of this ridiculously phoney contraception debate fired by George Steponallofus, Romney smacked him around but good, and Santorum stepped right into the pile of poo.
Obama, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich:
All for some or all of: TARP, Patriot Act, NDAA indefinite detention, raising the debt ceiling, no real spending cuts, gun grabbing.
Ron Paul: real cuts, honesty, consistency, predicted the housing bubble five years before it happened, gets more donations from active-duty military than all other candidates combined, audit The Fed, protect the borders, etc etc etc.
Ron Paul is the only candidate against the NDAA indefinite detention.
Oath Keepers: “To be blunt, we consider the NDAA of 2012 to be a declaration of war on the American people, and an act of treason.”
Republicans have posited that despite conservative resistance to voting for Romney as the GOP nominee because he is a progressive republican, it is nonetheless imperative that they at least support the rest of the GOP’s “down ticket”, and try to retake the Senate. That is utter nonsense.
Why should conservatives support a republican party with essentially an identical progressive agenda as that of the democrat party?
Conservatives know that if the nation is failing with a progressive democrat President, then it would be no better off with a progressive republican President, and that the same holds true with house and senate. They also know that if the GOP is willing to nominate a progressive republican for the presidential election, then it is equally willing to nominate progressive republicans for election to the Senate – or any other public office in the “down ticket” for that matter.
The 2012 election may forever explode the GOP establishment myth that the desire of conservatives to take control of Congress away from democrats is so great that they will hold their nose and vote for progressive republicans to accomplish it because, if Romney wins the GOP nomination, I predict that conservatives will stay home on election day. Conservatives will shed no tears as they watch Romney go down in defeat along with any hopes for a Republican Congress, because a choice between progressive republicans and progressive democrats is a choice with no difference. Then they can begin a thorough housecleaning of their failed party leadership by sweeping out all of the progressive strangers in their house, and try again in 2016 to nominate a republican candidate who conservatives can support.
“Why should conservatives support a republican party with essentially an identical progressive agenda as that of the democrat party?”
I don’t know what planet you’re living on. The House voted to repeal Obamacare in their first few months and passed Cut, Cap, and Balance. It wasn’t their fault the Senate refused to vote on any of it. Next time, don’t be such a purist with some of our candidates and we’ll be able to wrest control of the senate.
Being a “purist” is what got TEA party republicans into the House, William. Since arriving, the go-along-to-get-along GOP leadership has all but ignored them, and often gone out of their way to try to isolate them as “purists” – just as you have tried to do me. Thanks, but No thanks, William. Blindly “voting the party ticket” is what got Republicans into this socialist-lite mess. If witholding our conservative vote is the only way to wrest control of our party away from the progressive element that is leading it now, then so be it. We don’t vote just to get a Republican elected, we vote to get a competant leader elected. By giving us Dole, McCain, and now Romney, the GOP has taken the conservative vote for granted just one time too many, and it will have to EARN the conservative vote in future elections.
You want a conservative Congress? You won’t get one by staying home on election day. Try doing something useful, like sending money to Sen. Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservative Fund. In the 2010 election DeMint gave money to Rubio, Rand Paul, Toomey, Lee, and Johnson, who all won and who have since held firm conservative positions in the Senate. In this election DeMint has vetted, endorsed and given money to four more conservative Senate candidates. Check them out; you will be impressed by folks like Ted Cruz in Texas.
Of course I want a conservative Congress, SCF, but the only way we are EVER going to get one is if we also have a PARTY that is conservative! The current GOP isn’t interested in a “conservative” Congress, SCF, it’s only interested in a “Republican” Congress. The only way to get the party to stop taking us for granted on the “down ticket” while promoting “inevitable” progressive RINOS at the top, is to make the party EARN our conservative vote from top to bottom. Progressives have played the electoral process such that each election is a choice between two progressive candidates. The only difference between a Democrat win or a Republican win in 2008 was whether government-run healthcare was to be called “Obamacare” or “The McCain Mandate”; whether unemployment was to be blamed on “Obamanomics” or “McCainonomics”; whether we would continue to be dependent on oil from hostile Arab dictators with a bow or a handshake. Either way, the progressive agenda would be advancing all the same.
in its zeal to cast the next Ronald Reagan, the conservative wing finds itself forced to support the man it least wanted – Ricky from PA. Nice job folks. The election should about Not Obama but the fire-breathers are obsessed with Romney’s tax returns. Imagine; Repubs making a person’s income and business sound like bad things.
What polls? I have been following the Tennessee primary ‘race’ and only the polls sponsored by the MSM and religious organizations have shown much support for Santorum. To my knowledge no reliable pollster has forecast anything other than a Romney victory in Tennessee.
Personally, I’d prefer the radical born-again conservative from Georgia to either the choirboy or the businessman but any of the three would be preferable to the closet communist who infests the Oval Office at the moment.
Yep, the air is just crackling as Romney fever sweeps the nation ushering in a new era of reasonable expectations and sensible haircuts.
In todays world Jesus couldn’t run for office without the left wing media attempting to destroy his personality. At this point in time I see no one worthy of the throne be he/she a Democrat or Republican. It is just pathetic as to what is being said and done under the ruse of leadership.
Most of Israel didn’t want Him as their King 2000 years ago, either, so I fail to see how there’s anything new about that.
I am a graduate of Vanderbilt University and the Memphis Blues of Tennesse run through my heart and soul in the state where my mom and dad lay in peaceful repose.
Tennesse don’t be a volunteer to a failed GOP bid for the 2012 election.
Please endulge and old warrior that has struggled for objectivity in a world where Obama’s media minions disparage, distort, disarm and manipulate the news.
I earned my own way through Vanderbilt and Johns Hopkins and was lucky enough to have lived in seven countries, worked in 20 countries and analyzed over 50 countries world-wide.
Please understand that Mr Romney cannot have been the governor of Massachussetts, the second most liberal state in New England, promoted gay marriage, championed amnesty, and been the author of Romney Care a model for Obama Care, and all of a sudden,overnight, claim to be a severe conservative.
Mr Romney’s own primary reason for his electability is job creation, yet, while serving as Governor of Massachusetts his state ranked 45th out of 50 states in job creation.
My wife is from Pennsylvania. My brother-in-law called recently and stated “I can’t believe that that Santorum is gaining any traction, we here is Pennsylvania consider him looney. Please, go back and do your homework, review the reasons why he lost his bid for re-election to the Senate in Pennsylvania.
Mr Santorum is a nice man, but his enthusiasm is so extremely conservative that he will be fodder for Obama’s campaign machine.
I ask you what are the two essential elements for a successful President? The essential traits are LEADERSHIP and CHARISMA.
Of all the Republican candidates, only Mr Gingrich possesses those critical traits.
I was a young economist in Washington, D.C. and I witnessed Mr Gingrich as Leader of the House unite the Republican party and assist in the massive economic growth under the Reagan and Clinton Presidents.
Never before has the middle class in America been under such duress. Only a true leader can steward vital Republican family values legislation through the labrynths and corridors of self-serving politicians through Congress.
Under President Obama and his minions we have failed to stand by our allies, embraced enemies, spent our treasure ruinously, devastated our military capacity, debilitated our economy, meekly begged forgiveness at every perceived slight to a global audience and purposefully weakened the United States of America in every domestic, diplomatic and misguided foreign venture.
Following three years of failed dimplomacy with Iran, legitimate Iranians of all stripes continue to rush into the streets yearning for freedom and are mowed down, tortured, raped, hung, and systematically murdered while America turned its back on the most genuine cry for freedom since the French and American Revolutions.
Now, we are faced with the vital issue of a nuclearizing radical theocracy in Iran that in-a-blink-of-an-eye will possess a nuclear bomb capable of erasing Israel from existance, as well as America by contagion.
Who would Tennessee want sitting in the White House guarding your children’s tomorrows when that call comes in at 2 am?
I trust, that you would follow your own hearts and reason and vote for Mr Gingrich.
I also paid for my own education, for whatever that was worth. I say that Romney has not changed his views overnight. But even if there are some views he has changed recently, are you saying that changing your views is bad because it calls your credibility into question? Why bother to credit yourself with a vast amount of worldwide experiences if you can not change your views even if you have learned something new from any of them? But I will say that you have at least, in addition to your rumblings about Romney, tried to say a thing or two about why you like Newt Gingrich better. Lately, that is a big improvement over the usual discourse in these precincts.
Romney will be the nominee. And for the first time I can remember, I’m actually happy with the person being nominated (relative to the other candidates).
The idea people have bouncing in their heads about his being the most liberal of them isn’t actually true. It’s a loop we’ve gotten into because we cannot bear the thought of having another Bush-McCain RINO forced upon us. That isn’t what Romney is, he just deals with reality. He is actually the best among them on Illegal Immigration, he is knowledgeable about and strong supports E-Verify, which is the same exact thing that we serious anti-Illegal people want. Somehow he educated himself about this. None of the others did, and Gingrich is a downright traitor on the issue.
That is not the only issue out there, but it is the best measure of how Conservative a GOP candidate actually is, it separates out the corrupt very accurately. Most of them dodge away from any stance that will anger the money people and business interests who write checks to the party. Romney doesn’t actually need their checks, he is the least corruptable among them, seems to have no fear of these people who are supposed to be his string pullers. I think my fellow Conservatives are mistaken about what we’ll get from Romney, and the idea that he isn’t tough enough to make mincemeat out of Obama is totally incorrect.
Romney can’t be President- his father is Mexican. The definition of a “Natural Born Citizen” is that of one having been born of two parents who are U.S.-born Citizens. So the potential President grows up being American. Constitutionalists understand that.
Demand a worthwhile halfway honest candidate or tell the party to fly a kite. This is nothing but campaign stealing dollars from blind sheeple thinking this makes a difference.All of these platitudes and slogans are really getting old and boring. Those 500 people they keep polling are getting tired, give it a break. We’ve got nothing when done anyway
Okay, Arizona. You could be right about that, but we have Communism as things are right now, I says. ABO2012
Romney and the establishment Republicans are trying to buy the election through attack ads. His only record is a very liberal one. Why anyone would vote for a liberal from MA is beyond me. I think a lot of it is, the old people vote in primaries. They pretty much go with whoever they are told to vote for by the Republican Party. They don’t use the computer like many younger people do. They rely on the dinosaur media for their info, and who are they pushing, the one that the media find the easiest to beat.