U.S. (Belatedly) Changes Course on Zelaya, Chávez Stays Quiet
Previously, the removal of Zelaya had been characterized early and often as an unlawful coup and therefore bad. The change in position almost certainly occurred before the final accord was signed. Since the drafting of the accord was at the behest of the United States and was supervised by U.S. envoy Thomas Shannon, its meaning must have been clear to the U.S. In a press conference on November 3, Shannon seemed to know what the accord said and meant:
Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., said on the Senate floor that he’d spoken with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who told him that the administration would recognize the election Nov. 29 in Honduras “regardless of whether former President Manuel Zelaya is returned to office.”
“I am happy to report the Obama administration has finally reversed its misguided Honduran policy and will fully recognize the Nov. 29 elections,” DeMint said.
Senator DeMint accordingly removed the hold he had placed on two State Department nominees. Thus far, no explanation has been given by the U.S. regarding its change in position, nor even an acknowledgment that it has changed. Nevertheless, the change has clearly upset Zelaya and probably Chávez as well.
Chávez, who had been unhappy with both the efforts to secure an agreement in Costa Rica and apparently with the U.S. efforts in Honduras, said upon hearing that the accord had been signed: “We want to congratulate the people of Honduras for the battle they have won.” That was consistent with Zelaya’s premature statement that he would be restored to the presidency within a week. Chávez also offered a more tepid “wait and see” comment:
“It seems there is an open horizon.” His ambassador to the OAS, Roy Chaderton, said Venezuela was “not going to start dancing” until Zelaya is back in office.
More recently, on November 7, Ambassador Roy Chaderton condemned “delaying tactics” as an effort to cheat the international community and observed that:
[It is] absurd to push ahead an electoral process with candidates who took part and supported the military coup and a dictatorship as if it were a democratic government, and the OAS is pinning hope at the fantasy that one of them will take power and will solve the problem.
He seemed to be disappointed with the OAS, which until recently at least has been in Chávez’s pocket. Three days earlier, on November 4:
Delegates from Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua [had] denounced coupist ploys to break the October 30 agreements about the president’s restitution, in OAS Permanent Council meeting.
Little if anything else has been heard from Chávez personally, however, since soon after the accord was signed on October 30.
It reminds me of the Sherlock Holmes mystery involving the strange case of the dog in the night time. The dog had done nothing, not even bark, in circumstances which would normally have led it to do so. In more than a week since the signing of the accord, Chávez has barely uttered a restrained growl. It had been anticipated that:
Chavez will try to put his ally Zelaya back into office, even for a few weeks prior to the transfer of power, and preferably before the presidential election in November, so as to intimidate the opposition and claim a victory of sorts.
That may well happen, but thus far at least there has been no sign of it.
This article from el Universal presents an interview with Fernando Gerbasi, twice the ambassador to Colombia and also the chief of mission in Brasilia. Gerbasi feels many Latin American countries are becoming painfully aware of the domestic dangers posed by the Hugo Chávez/Venezuela model and are now putting distance between themselves and Chávez:
I would not say that … [Chávez] is completely out of the game [in Honduras], but on standby for the time being; at least for two years, in my opinion. Everything will depend on governance of the authorities to be elected on November 29th. Now, the role played by Brazil was not only in principle to replace (Honduras’ deposed President Manuel) Zelaya, but to prevent the advance of the Chávez project in Central America. And it does it in coordination with the United States.
This is an interesting take on Brazil’s position, and one which had not previously occurred to me. He may be correct about Brazil, although I had read statements coming from Brazil as being supportive of Zelaya.
Maybe President Obama will find time to read it. He and his diplomats should.
As noted in the pro-Zelaya Huffington Post
The author of this HuffPo article is Mark Weisbrot ( Whitebread), a Ph.D. who is a long-time propagandist for Chavez.
You can always tell a leftist lost because they shut up and don’t say anything.
I’m sorry, I may be wrong but, wasn’t I told over and over again that the reason “we were hated around the world was because of George W. Bush’s interference in other country’s business”? I guess it is okay to bully other countries, as long as you are on the communist side. I must have misunderstood.
Update
Colombia has announced that its ambassador is returning to Honduras, consistently with the October 30 accord. The Guatemalan Supreme Electoral Tribunal is due to decide soon whether to accept an invitation from Honduras and send observers for the November 29 elections. The President of the Council of Private Enterprises in Honduras has announced that “some 600″ international observers will be present during the elections, and President Micheletti has again urged the OAS to send election observers.
The Supreme Court has indicated that it will not advise the Congress on Zelaya’s reinstatement, since to do so might prejudice a pending appeal against the decree in accordance with which the National Congress ousted Zelaya and appointed Micheletti as interim president. It was also stated that the Court “can only give opinions or advice when it comes to reform legal codes are the attention of Congress.” This is a rather poor Google translation, but it probably means that, like most courts, the Supreme Court’s authority to render advisory opinions is limited.
Former President Zelaya’s representative to the Credentials Committee has resigned, which according to Zelaya negates the Committee. The Committee disagrees, and has asked that the Zelaya representative return. It was also requested that the international community respect the accord, and recognize the November 29 elections regardless of whether Zelaya is reinstated.
The Zelaya faction has announced that it will boycott the elections even if Zelaya is soon reinstated. “The only leftist in the presidential contest, Carlos Reyes, withdrew from the race, while the anti-coup Resistance Front said it is already too late to ensure a free and fair ballot.” Reyes had been running at only 4 percent in the polls.
According to this rather interesting analysis, Chavez now has his sights on el Salvador, which borders Honduras on the west. Allthough Chávez seems to have lost in Honduras, he and his colleagues “are already using what they learned in Tegucigalpa in El Salvador. Central America’s most promising free-market democracy is now fighting for its life.”
The convoy in which the chief Honduran Prosecutor was riding was ambushed on November 7, but there were no injuries. The Honduran Government has not indicated whether the motive for the attack was related to the “coup” problems there, but a police spokesman “speculated the attack could be an attempt to ‘provoke unease’ in the country.”
Iranians dieing in the streets and we are supporting the return to power of a Marxist drug dealer in Honduras. This Administration sucks so bad I can’t believe it.
Yay! Finally a victory for the rule of law over politicians who think they’re special!
Whatever they do, they must not let that fool Jimmuh Cahtuh in as an election monitor.
It takes a lot of guts for Honduras, a very poor and small country of about eight million people, to assert its independence in this way, not only from the powerful United States but also from most of the “international community.”
The apparent, albeit belated, change in U.S. position, and the impact it has had, suggest that the U.S. can still be a powerful force for either evil or good.
I hope the new U.S. position does not turn out to have been an anomaly and that the resolve of other countries, such as el Salvador, will be strengthened. I also hope that the strength demonstrated by Honduras in the face of almost total international isolation strengthens the resolve of those in the United States who support the rule of law and the supremacy of the U.S. Constitution; the dangers are palpable.
Somehow, this video reminds me of Zelaya.
Since I live in rural Honduras, I am able to observe the country and its people daily. Life has improved since Zelaya was removed from office. I personally know of only two people who say they supported him. It is like a fresh breeze has swept the country. We have come together in unity to plan for a better future for our children and grand children.
There is a new respect for the office of President, the courts, the National Congress, the military and the national police. We see them as protectors of our liberty, and the rule of law. God has heard our prayers.
Viva Honduras
The article on El Salvador is scary. With FMLN in power, they could do it. FMLN is certainly a lot more astute at politics, and much more battle hardened (both literally and metaphorically) than spoiled rich boy Mel Zelaya.
THis is the first I have heard that the US is now on the side of democracy and the rule of law in Honduras. This is good news.
The actions of Honduras that had to stand nearly alone to defend its constitutional and legal action in removing Zelaya are an inspiration.
hmm. The US is now willing to recognize a non-Zelaya government and Chavez isn’t speaking.
You have now entered the twilight zone.
It has been my observation over many years that libruls stick to their errant guns no matter how illogical their position may be. Just look at Pelosi, Reid and company. This action by the WH and State seems to be an exception.
Hats off to the victory of law and logic over the fearful “That could be my head in that basket”(H/T movie Braveheart), the previous Obama attitude .
With the retrospective on the collapse of the Berlin Wall by Daniel Hannan, communicated here: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100016114/reflections-on-the-revolutions-in-europe/ we see that some things never change.
told you i did. even foggy bottom is not so stupid to allow havana (not chavez) another country to own and control.
cuba is the real source of problems in the area, with a deeply entrenched control system in central and south america. cuban intellegence agents are everywhere, are ruthless, and are seething at the loss of honduras.
this is a true setback for havana. but it is far from over. when things are quiet, you have the most to be concerned about.
The saber-rattling of these communist dictators must not be working. Praise the Lord.
According to el Heraldo, an Honduran newspaper, Lewis Amselem, U.S. Ambassador to the OAS, stated that the accord does not require the immediate reinstatement of Zelaya, and both parties were aware of that when the accord was signed on October 30. At least the U.S. appears to be maintaining a consistent position, for now.
The former presidents of Guatemala, Alvaro Arzu, and El Salvador, Alfredo Cristiani, will participate as observers in the elections.
However, OAS Secretary General Insulza said today that is “difficult for the parties [to] resume dialogue in Honduras and said the organization can not ‘even consider’ sending an observer mission for the elections on 29 November. . . . ‘The decision regarding our election observation is one thing that we could not even consider (…). From the political point of view there is no condition to send an electoral mission to Honduras.’”
Call me a cynic, but I’m more inclined to think that the Obamas have struck a deal with Chavez. Chavez etal will back off Honduras, and the US will turn a blind eye to whatever happens with Columbia. Of course, the WH will make a few bleats about how “tragic” any military actions against Columbia are, but the (evil) US will not intervene in the “affairs” of other countries.
I just wonder who Oblather will give a “shout out” to, before he pronounces his enlightened judgement.
We in Honduras will be happy, over joyed, tickled pink, and our legs would tingle, if the Chavez puppet Insulza never shows up here for our election or any other time. He is not welcome in Honduras.
We are content that the thug Zelaya is still in the tin foil room with his cute little teddy bear to keep him company, and we will soon have elections.
Viva Honduras!!!
We will be happy, over joyed, tickled pink, and our legs would tingle if the Chavez puppet Insulza never return to Honduras. He is not welcome here.
We are content that Zelaya is still in his tin foil room with his cute little teddy bear to keep him company.
MDr, You may of course be right. However, I think that the war with Colombia noise is mainly a ploy to distract the Venezuelans from their sufferings under Chavez and that there will be no need for the U.S. to turn a blind eye to his military action there.
The Venezuelans seem to be getting tired of circuses and to be more interested in bread, which the Chavez government is decreasingly unable either to provide or to get out of the way and let the Venezuelans provide their own.
The threat of war with Colombia also seems designed to show Chavez’s resolve to the ALBA countries, but some of them seem to be less than completely attentive. They probably are less than attentive because the poor state of readiness of the Venezuelan military for anything short of becoming fatter, dumber and perhaps happier is hardly a secret.
havana will not allow war between columbia and venezuela. chavez will be permitted to talk only………… there is nothing to be gained by war, rather it is a feint for a severe crack down of internal dissent. havana needs more compliant serfs in venezuela, and chavez will deliver. the people will, as they did in cuba, become content with a subsistence level existence.
internal security systems are not yet in place to control the people adequately, but will be by 2011. soon, all semblance of democracy will be removed from venezuela and it will be a dictatorship state like cuba.
honduras has scared the ALBA group. they shake their heads, and wonder how did it happen. the US handed them the place on a platter but they failed.
2. Anonymous:
You can always tell a leftist lost because they shut up and don’t say anything.
True, but I find that this reaction is far more common. Read a couple of posts by PM troll “Now and Then” for an example, in between the “but Bush did this, Bush did that…” strawmen “arguments.”
Honduras 1, Zelaya 0. Yay!
Here’s my take on why the US changed its position:
In the past, our inexperienced President has let his mouth run off before his mind can catch up, expressing opinions based not on facts, but on his personal liberal prejudices. Such was the case when he inanely remarked that police had acted “stupidly” when arresting Harvard Professor Henry Louis Gates.
Similarly, Obama may have been unaware of what exactly occurred when Zelaya was deposed, but reflexively joined his leftist friends in condemning the affair and demanding Zelaya’s return. This became the Administration’s policy. But when more level heads opined on the subject (e.g. the Law Library experts) and it became clear Zelaya’s removal was legal (though perhaps not his banishment to Costa Rica), the Administration had to find a way to revert its position without appearing to contradict itself. Add to this the looming Nov. 29 elections, which, if they turn out as fair as expected, would leave the US in the foolish position of supporting Zelaya in the name of democracy, while ignoring an actual democratic election and a new President-elect with millions of votes to his name. Something had to be done quickly, and that something was the October 30 accord. It’s an elegant maneuver whereby the Administration can jettison its support for Zelaya and recognize the Nov. 29 elections, all in the name of diplomatic compromise. Don’t you get it? It’s not a policy reversal, but rather an amazing diplomatic breakthrough! And if Zelaya and his minions protest, the Administration is now free to ignore them, as, after all, we made a compromise!
The only mystery left to answer is why the Zelaya camp agreed to the deal in the first place. Looking back now the accord almost seems designed to never let him reassume power. Zelaya was fooled into signing away his relevancy.
Insofar as Venezuela waging war against Colombia, that’s merely more Chavez sabre rattling, a vain attempt to distract Venezuelans from their atrocious domestic situation. Chavez may be crazy, but he’s not stupid. The scrawny Venezuelan army would be no match for the battle-hardened Colombian regulars. Venezuela’s oil fields and refineries would make huge targets for the Colombian Air Force. If bombed, Venezuela’s economy would be crippled within days. Above all, Chavez is a survivor. He knows he would not survive a major Colombian onslaught.
President Roberto Micheletti and the very brave people of the Republic of Honduras deserve the support of the free world.
They stuck to their guns when practically the entire world was clamoring for them to give up.
Yes it is good that the U.S. and it’s marxist administration has finally found their way out of a very badly bungled situation.
But it is also a utter disgrace that the U.S. was in the position they placed themselves in by electing a person of such pathetic qualifications to act (and I do mean act) as leader of their people.
Hopefully the current U.S. administration has learned something watching how liberty and freedom was fought for and preserved by the Hondurans.
Roberto Micheletti will be remembered as a hero some day and it will be deserved, but it was all the great Honduran people that understood what was at stake here that made the outcome possible.
Viva Honduras!
Sorry, but it’s too late for us to save our honor. This is the most despicable foreign policy sell-out of my long life, and while I’m thrilled for the Hondurans I am now like Michelle Obama: ashamed of my country.
The Honduran Congress and Supreme Court have done with Zelaya what ours should do with Obama. Can that little country be the new ‘cradle of democracy?’
This New York Times piece paints a dismal, but probably more rosy than realistic, picture of life in Caracas. It is well worth reading by anyone who thinks that Venezuelan socialism is a good model for other countries, or even for Venezuela. This brief article by Daniel, a blogger in Venezuela, suggests that the author of the NYT piece “is starting to be pissed off at the whole thing. Maybe he lost a computer? Maybe the water pump of his building was burnt in the latest blackout?. He is becoming one of us, those who would not mind at all living in a semi normal country.”
I think, and certainly hope, that the people of Honduras will continue to reject Bolivarian Socialism and Chavez.
James, re comment #26 –
I still resist considering even the possibility, but perhaps the U.S. has gone from being the “cradle of democracy” to being the grave. 2012?
Craig Kelly, deputy assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, has left Honduras without any apparent success in getting the negotiations between President Micheletti and former President Zelaya to resume. Zelaya indicated that he has “little expectations” for a breakthrough before Nov. 29th elections. Zelaya continued to urge the international community “not to recognize the electoral process under any circumstances and to suspend all technical and financial support.”
According to the linked article, “if Zelaya is not reinstated before the elections, the United States would face a difficult decision over whether to restore diplomatic ties with the newly elected government.” I see no difficulty whatever, in view of earlier statements by Mr. Shannon, the chief negotiator while the accord was being worked on, that the results of the elections will be recognized regardless of whether Zelaya is reinstated.
Regarding the above: I think Dan may be right in the long run. As to why Obama reversed his policy, no one will know for fifty years. But you can bet it has to do with installing socialism in the United States. My guess is, Obama saw that his position was a barrier to his ultimate goal. After all, he is a Saul Alinsky acolyte, a rigid thinking radical socialist. The goal is to destroy capitalist America and transform it to socialist America.
#26 James
Where have you been? Haven’t you heard that Honduras is now known as, THE LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD? We are certified to be 100% Obama free.
Dan, I live in rural Honduras, and i love it. I would like to ride a horse like you, but my family is afraid that, since i am so big, i would kill the horse.
Viva Honduras!!!
Obama and Clinton have been showing their asses on this issue for many weeks. They were pressing so hard for Obama’s socialist agenda that there is no way the Washington spin machine can now spew enough misinformation to turn this cesspool into a field of wildflowers.
A top associate of former President Zelaya, Allan Fajaro, yesterday made some interesting comments, quite consistent with statements made much earlier by el Presidente Chávez. He observed that “dark forces” were watching Honduras, and that
“If we resolve this constitutionally they will know they too have to respect democracy. If not, these dark forces will know they have a green light and the continent will become an erupting volcano. That will be a very bad outcome, not only for our continent, but for Europe and the world.”
To prevent this horrid state of affairs, he urged all countries to reject the results of the November 29 elections and to continue to exert pressure on Honduras to reinstate Zelaya. He warned that anti-government forces in Paraguay and Bolivia are already threatening military takeovers.
Tsk tsk! What a shame. Good grief! It could even happen in the happy land of Venezuela. Within hours of the removal of Zelaya from office in June, Chávez said, “this is a coup against Venezuela!”
“constitutionally?” “democracy?” Sr.Fajaro must have a dictionary different from the one I use. His was probably written by Chávez and published in Venezuela.
This article from the Miami Herald focuses on the plight of poor el Presidente Chávez. Although Venezuela is going down the tubes,
“According to an Oct. 28 El Nuevo Herald report, Chávez’s 2010 government budget includes a more than 600% increase in the president’s spending budget, which will rise to $2.2 billion. The new budget includes $264,000 for clothing, $18,500 for shoes, $145,000 for soap, shampoo and other bathroom products. At a time when Venezuela’s economy will fall by about 2 percent this year and the country has Latin America’s highest inflation rate, few Venezuelans find the news of Chávez’s personal expenses amusing.”
Chávez is Zelaya’s mentor and the one who has been leading the charge by the international circus that Zelaya be reinstated as president of Honduras.
Here is an example of the unbiased and totally fair reporting which continues. It’s all the “coup mongers” fault, and poor Zelaya is going down the toilet. There should be a law!
Ex-President Zelaya announced on November 14 that “As the elected president of the Honduran people, I reaffirm my position that starting today, no matter what, I will not accept any agreement on returning to the presidency of the republic to cover up this coup d’etat. . . .” In a letter to President Obama, he stated “The future that you show us today by changing your position in the case of Honduras, and thus favouring the abusive intervention of the military castes … is nothing more than the downfall of freedom and contempt for human dignity. . . It is a new war against the processes of social and democratic reforms so necessary in Honduras.”
It would be interesting to leap forward about thirty years in time and see how history recorded the sorry efforts of the Obama administration to make friends with the leftists in Latin America, and then its belated change of course a couple of weeks ago. At the moment, it seems that its strategy didn’t work very well, and that for any country to place its trust in the present U.S. Government would be foolish. I hope the U.S. Government does not back off in Colombia in an attempt to appease Chávez and his friends.
President Martinelli of Panamá has confirmed that Panamá will recognize the November 29 elections. He called upon the international community to do the same.
Here is an analysis of the elections scheduled for Venezuela. It casts some light on what would likely happen in Honduras were Zelaya, whose mentor is Chavez, to be reinstated as president with the full power of the presidency.