The Republican Race at Halftime
It’s halftime in the race for the Republican nomination. After Rick Santorum’s victory in Louisiana on March 24, slightly more than half of the delegates (54%) to the Tampa GOP convention have been chosen.
As of March 26, Mitt Romney had lapped the field with more delegates than Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul combined. He is estimated to now have 565 delegates, with 1144 needed for victory. Powered by clutch wins in big states like Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois, and taking advantage of a divided opposition, Romney is in a very strong position for a first-ballot nomination. It will be virtually impossible for either Santorum or Gingrich to win more delegates than Romney; the best they can hope to do is block him on the first ballot and then try to pick up the pieces after that. As we shall see, the clock is running and key parts of the schedule favor Mitt Romney. Barring a string of fumbles, the nomination is now his to lose.
As Ron Brownstein pointed out in National Journal, the Republican race has been a contest between the “GOP’s upscale managerial wing,” led by Romney, and the more populist base of evangelicals who have split their votes between Santorum and Gingrich. Romney has generally won the big metropolitan areas — Miami, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Phoenix, and Chicago — while Santorum and Gingrich have usually won the South and Heartland rural votes. Santorum has yet to win a state with a central city that has over one million people or any of the 10 most populous states.
The good news for Romney — besides the fact that he’s had more than one opponent — is that there are generally more middle-class suburban Republican voters than rural populists. Organization, money, and demographics have carried Romney thus far. Unless Santorum can shake up the race with some unexpected victories in California, New York, Wisconsin, or New Jersey, Romney will probably continue to grind out a victory.
How does the second half look? In April alone, there are three Northeastern “winner-take-all” primaries in Maryland, the District of Columbia, and New York. Adding those 151 Northeastern delegates plus a majority of the 54 to be chosen in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware will give Romney well over 700, nearly two-thirds of the way home. And adding the 262 winner-take-all delegates from California, New Jersey, and Utah gets Romney 90% of the way to 1144. Adding in delegates for second-place finishes in Texas (where there are plenty of wealthy suburbanites) and other Southern/Heartland states would then put Romney over the top by June.
To have any chance of blocking Romney’s relentless march to a first-ballot victory, Santorum will have to win Wisconsin on April 3; get a big majority in his home state of Pennsylvania on April 24; and string together victories down the stretch in North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, and all the remaining Southern and Heartland states. But that still wouldn’t be enough. Santorum would have to also take away some states where Romney is favored — either California or New Jersey, or both — plus smaller Sun Belt states like New Mexico. That is an extremely tall order for a candidate with little money or organization who also may be running out of time. And unfortunately for Santorum, both the latest national Gallup poll and USC/L.A. Times poll of California Republicans give Romney a double-digit lead.
What are the chances that Santorum can put together such a spectacular comeback? Perhaps the best shot he has is that with Gingrich fading fast, he’ll finally get the one-on-one showdown he’s wanted with Romney. Exit polls have consistently shown that conservatives outnumber moderate Republicans by about a 60-40 average. Santorum may be able to contrast his opposition to President Obama’s health care bill with Romney’s previous support for a mandate requiring individuals to purchase health insurance. Santorum already has the strong support of social conservatives. To win suburban states like California and New Jersey, he’ll need to peel away some economic conservatives from Romney. “ObamaCare” might be his best wedge issue. But unless Santorum can get a breakout win in California, New York, or New Jersey, he’ll be facing some pretty tough delegate math.
To use the football metaphor again, by winning the bigger states, Romney has been scoring touchdowns while Santorum’s smaller states have only been field goals. The danger for Santorum is that he may fall too far behind while his opponent simply runs out the clock. To catch up, he’ll need some Romney fumbles. The odds are against it, but in this year, anything is possible.
Like the song says, money, money, money, its a rich man’s world. That has been Romney’s story from the beginning. He’s about as inspiring as milk toast. He’s got as much conviction as a chemelon. I bet you that his supporters could not list 5 things that Romney is for (and will actually fight to implement) them. He out moneyed and out organized his opponent. Let’s see if the hatred of Obama is enough to put him over finish line in November. And I pray every day that the Supremes will strike down Obamacare in total, because I absolutely don’t trust him to undo it.
As I look at the political scene in the USA I find it really depressing because competent responsible honest people without money and influence seem to have virtually no hope of ever getting elected. I cannot see how those who are wallowing in so much money can have any real idea of how those who have low incomes an have to budged stringently live and struggle. Perhaps there should be a ban on the raising of money for political campaigns and that candidates will have to depend on unpaid volunteers. This would certainly prevent the buying of votes and encourage a far healthier democracy.
I also notice that there are a huge number of lawyers who become politicians. They are certainly good at one thing – pulling the wool over the eyes of naive voters. Perhaps there should be a moratorium on lawyers becoming politicians for the next ten years. And finally perhaps there should also be a law requiring all politicians to have done say ten years of real work in the private sector before becoming a candidate. This would provide a batch of politicians with an understanding of the real hard world.
It’s not up to the president to undo a piece of legislation. Repeal has to be voted on by a majority in the House (GOP should retain control) and a majority in the Senate (possible GOP majority there in 2013) while surviving a filibuster (GOP is not going to get 60 seats). All the president has to do is sign his name to the repeal. Mittens, I think, will do that if it passes both houses. Problem being, I’m not sure the Democrats don’t filibuster a repeal in the Senate.
He out moneyed and out organized his opponent.
I’d expect a competent candidate to do just that. Being able to raise money and being organized IS a big part of winning elections, whether you like it or not. Santorum failed to even get on the ballot in some states. How well do you think somebody that incompetent would do against Obama?
You seem to forget that Mittens has a fortune so his ‘collections’ aren’t really needed. Just more icing on the cake, to him.
What is your point? Mitt is rich? Did you get poor because of Mitt, or something? Did Mitt get rich because of your work? What is the problem? Isn’t plenty of wealth something we all hope to achieve in our lives? Do you envy Mitt because he has accomplished what you and I wish we had accomplished? I actually like to see that some people can actually accumulate a lot of wealth in our system. It gives me hope for myself. Again, what was your point?
“Organization, money, and demographics have carried Romney thus far.”
THAT, perhaps, and a boatload of sycophantic, factless Media Cheerleaders repeatedly chanting “he’s inevitable!” and “it’s over!” which began prior to the first Primary (SORTA LIKE OBAMA’S MSM…only sloppier).
This article thankfully remains on the numerical aspect of delegates, and recognizes that the Primaries are still going on. Other than that, it makes for Weak Romney-cheerleading Tea.
There is nobody in the media who could be called a Romney sycophant. But somebody named Ed Wallis is obviously an Obama sycophant. ABO2012
Jim Baker’s Love Notes Ode to Idiocracy goes on….
Hey chump: you’re forgetting those at PJM – Mr. Simon for one – Coulter and SO MANY OTHER shills with their Mittens Knee Pads.
You have NO credibility with your spitball posts. Grow up.
So, a few insults hurled my way, as usual. You have ignored my assumption and question, as usual. First, do you deny that you are one of Obama’s internet blog trolls? Explain what you think you are doing here if you are not. You can call me a Romney lover if you would like, but I have said repeatedly that I will vote for a yellow dog if that is who the Republicans nominate to run against comrade Obama. What do you not understand about my position, Mr. Arbiter of Credibility? Until you can answer that, I will have no choice but to assume that you are working for Obama, because that is what your postings have been indicating to me for several weeks now. As to adolescence, I am pretty sure I was all grown up before you were born, and that I have already forgotten more than you know. ABO2012
Dear Lord, teach this idiot:
JIM BAKER, it is not logically possible to prove a “negative.”
Learn reason, debating, math, or logic…AFTER you learn to wipe your hiney.
Your irrational, immature thinking is an embarassment to this site.
I am not asking you to prove anything, I am asking you a question, boy. Don’t get your panties in a wad over it. Are you an Obama campaign worker, or not? Yes or no will work. I have explained to you why I think you must be, so it is a legitimate question to ask of you. No proofs will be required. I just want you to clear this up for myself and for anyone else who feels they are being subjected to your daily diatribes about Mitt Romney.
What? No Ed Wallis now? Imagine that.
More shills for Romney – Christine O’Donnell, Mike Lee, and Marco Rubio.
I bet you that his supporters could not list 5 things that Romney is for (and will actually fight to implement) them.
Smaller government, balanced budgets, lower corporate taxes, reduced debt, individual responsibility, law and order, strong defense, families with a mom and a dad, the Christian God, charity, healthy living, a clean environment and generally all that is good and beneficial.
You lose. Pay up.
There’s a reason why Romney has won the most educated and most successful demographic in every state. April will be a cruel month for Santorum and the delusional ABRs. Santorum will drop out after Romney takes PA on April 24th.
Prove it, not by his words, but by his past actions. I think Ed’s money is very safe. Unless you include things like: 1. Massachusetts’ draconian gun control laws. 2. The global warming scam. 2. Government mandated health insurance. Well, there’s three, that’s than you came up with with the possible exception of belief in middle eastern mythology (note too impressive in the real world).
Prove it, not by his words, but by his past actions.
Prove that Santorum is a small-government conservative. Prove it not by his current words, but by his past actions.
I’ve noticed that a lot of the people attacking Romney on this board hate ALL the Republican candidates. It’s hard not to suspect that many of these people are liberal Democrats posing as conservative Republicans.
Maybe the GOP should give us candidates who actually ARE for small government, Newt comes the closest, but Romney and Santorum are laughable in that regard.
Right, I’m a liberal because I don’t want to have to choose between two liberals in November. Buy a clue Steve, buy a clue.
You’re a liberal because you’re here pretending to think that Romney and Santorum are liberals. You’re a liberal because you are encouraging Republicans to be unhappy with the man who is almost certain to be the nominee (Romney) and also the man who will be the nominee in the unlikely event that Romney is not the winner – Santorum. You’re a liberal because your words and arguments only benefit Obama and the Democrats.
Newt Gingirch is not going to be the Republican candidate – I have as much chance of winning the nomination as Newt does. But if Newt was the front runner, you’d be here encouraging a conservative rebellion against Newt.
Every single word you post here helps the left and hurts the right. Every. Single. Word. Perhaps you are merely stupid, but there’s a very fine line between being stupid and being a liberal.
“Maybe the GOP should give us candidates who actually ARE for small government, Newt comes the closest.”
Oh, come on. Ron Paul is the one for small government, and everyone knows it. The most small-government. The most constitutional. The most pro-gun. The most low taxes. The most for defending the U.S. border. Gets the most donations from active-duty military than all other candidates including Obama. Is the only candidate against NDAA. He’s the only one who truly cares about cutting spending. etc. etc. etc.
The fake Taxed Enough Already party pretends they are for small government and low taxes, but then they turn their nose up at Ron Paul, the guy who wants to cut actual spending not just cut the amount of increase, and the guy who wants to eliminate the entire income tax and IRS. What a bunch of hypocrites.
Bingo, SteveM! These paid Obama trolls are appearing on every political blog site now. The goal is to keep Republicans arguing among themselves and talking about everything except Obama’s terrible record as our first Communist President. Many of the people we have to endure every day now, never posted on this blog site until 2012. ABO2012
The key is the comments they make on other threads not relating to the primary. I saw one of these self proclaimed “Real Conservatives” who hated all four Republican candidates show up on a Trayvon Martin thread and makes comments like a full-blown leftist moonbat about what a horrible racist country this is.
Some of these people do not make any comments on any other threads – they show up ONLY on posts about the primary and make arguments which can only result in another four years for Obama.
Wow, I’m supposed to get paid? Can you please send me a link to get my free Obama bucks!
You guys are every bit as bad as the leftists, projection and name calling is all you have when someone points out, in the words of your own candidate that Romney is a liberal by most definitions of the word.
I’ve pointed out that your words are identical to what a liberal Democrat would say. You have not denied this, because you cannot.
It is impossible for Newt Gingrich to win the Republican nomination. You attack the man who almost certainly will win the nomination, and you attack the man who will win the nomination if the Romney campaign bus gets hit by a meteorite. There is only one possible outcome from people listening to you and that is four more years for Barack Obama.
Based on this I can see only two possibilities. One: you are deeply stupid. Two: you are a liberal intent on sowing dissension on the right.
You can tell me which is the case.
Jim “Obama Trolls” Baker is PJM’s own One Man Clown Circus.
This loser offers no points or arguments, only spews invectives.
Grow up or PI§§ OFF, Jombo.
Ed Wallis, this is for you. You have never even read any of my thoughts on PJM since your only goal is to trash Obama’s opponent. So far, you have not been told by your mentors that I am Obama’s opponent. So I will tell you. Above all, I am an opponent of Obama. I think he is a committed Communist and I am not going to live any part of my life as a servant of any government. I am not sure why I am on this planet, but I am sure I was not born to spend my life working for the governments best interests. ABO2012
FOR THE RECORD, JIMBO:
I am dedicated to seeing the most Conservative electable nominated in the Primaries.
That is NOT Mittens.
*If* there is a TROLL here, it is YOU, who in a MOST ANTI-AMERICAN MANNER assumes the Primaries are over (invalidating all Republican voters’ voices whom have yet to vote), and therefore anyone against Romney is for Obama.
YOU THINK LIKE AN IDIOT.
That’s spelled I-D-I-O-T (or: J-i-m B-a-k-e-r).
Who would that most electable conservative be, Ed Wallis? If you are actually favoring a conservative, don’t you think it would work better for you and for your candidate, to mention his name and give some reason why you like him better than the others? Mitt Romney bashing is what Obama’s gang is doing every day. It is also not the way to get your, yet to be named, candidate nominated at this point, I will bet. I won’t have any problem with your guy, as long as his name is not comrade Barack Hussein Obama. Just lay of with the stupid attack dog stuff. We can get a daily rash of Republican trashing just by turning on the old media TV. You follow? ABO2012
Where is Ed?
“Smaller government” – What? Taxachusetts? Who’d he lay off the one token Republican janitor? RomneyCare produced a whopping jump in bureaucracy, and any net reductions in size were met by his failure to run for re-election (because he’d have gotten his butt whupped..) and the Democrat machine handing out goodies. BRUTAL FAIL
“[B]alanced budgets”, lower corporate taxes, reduced debt – FEES, FINES, and yes tax increases… BTW balanced budgets still are the province of the Legislature, even in a People’s Republic. Romney was rolled like a cheap canoe. WIMP FAIL
individual responsibility – RomneyCare’s Individual Mandate? Right. SOCIALIST FAIL
“law and order” – common now even Obummer puts himself up to being “law and order” (what law and whose order is a matter of debate) but this is a standard poll line. CLONE FAIL
strong defense – more pap what’s he going to say? Except if he thought RuPaul’s isolationism was a better bet, then he’d be all about that. DUH FAIL
families with a mom and a dad – mom and mom, daddy and daddy… Gay Marriage courtesy of judicial fiat and gubernatorial action…. Romney was the “goober” EPIC FAIL
“the Christian God, charity, healthy living, a clean environment and generally all that is good and beneficial.” — Harry Reid is LDS as well… his he promoting LDS lifestyles? (and the LDS concept of God is not the Nicene Triune dogma – not denigrating them, just disagreeing with their interpretation.) But practitioners of the LDS faith do have their own social constructs and regardless of their “health and wellness” benefits. They aren’t particularly qualifying factors for election to the presidency. Our pastor is an amazing wonderful man, but he isn’t presidential material.
Sorry… Romney is a MONSTER FAIL…
The Pledge:
Willard Milton Romney is a Limousine Liberal Democrat masquerading as a Republican; therefore I WILL NOT vote for him, EVER!
-John – TMF
Therefore, you will be casting a vote for the Communist in the White House and you will be dooming your children to a life of living at the pleasure of government. Did I mention that your discourse was specious and your arguments were tortured? ABO2012
I won’t be voting for Romney… if that’s what you mean.
Romney = Obama – Both are puppets of the Elite Northeastern Establishment, Romney is a proven Liberal who supports liberal policies, judicial appointments, and actions… He just pretends to be something convenient.
The Establishment runs the power cliques of both political parties, just like Government Motors runs Chevy and Cadillac. One is cheap for the masses… One is overpriced and aimed at the wealthy… Both pretend to be different. The result has still been more and more government.
I will undervote. There are no acceptable candidates if Romney buys the nomination. I vote FOR, not against people. To vote against is to swallow the crap sandwich with mayo instead of plain… I just won’t eat the danged thing in the first place.
-Not voting for Romney… EVER!
TMF
Another Obamabot speaks.
Here you go with the “Republican Power Establishment”. Who are those guys and what gives you this knowledge of them? Did they gang up on you and prevent you from doing something you want to do or from becoming what you hoped to become? Where does your beef come from, John? ABO2012
The reasonable and honest person always considers things in context. The legislatures with which Romney contended in MA were 85% Democrat.
Santroums poll numbers in Pennsylvania are plummeting, and he is now tied with Romney in that state. (Santorums home state, for those who don’t know)
A loss or even a near tie in Pennsylvania and Santorum is done.
Since there’s no “reply” button under your previous nonesense I’ll respond here. Please provide a link showing “liberal democrats” complaining about how liberal Romney is. . . if someone’s getting paid around here it’s a couple of Romney’s cheerleaders.
I don’t think you are “complaining” about how liberal Romney is. I don’t think you are “complaining” about how liberal Santorum is. I am saying that you are encouraging Republicans to not support their Presidential candidate in November because you want Obama to win. I am saying that the only possible outcome of the things you are saying here is four more years for Obama.
But I’m sure you understood all this before I explained it to you.
JustAl, where did you come from? I never saw you posting on this blog site until after Obama started campaigning for re-election last August. I have been posting on this blog site since about 2004. The point is, I am only a Romney supporter when it comes to beating Obama. You and your friends have already chased away several intelligent and interesting readers of PJM with your incessant postings. You will not ever chase me away because I do not wish for my grandchildren to be born into a world where a human being is consigned to spend his entire life as a servant of his government. I don’t think that is why people are born. My only goal in my life, right now, is the removal of Obama and all of his handlers from the executive branch of our government. He is a Communist and he is a clear and present danger to the hope for dignity that all men share, in my opinion. So, keep this claptrap up and I will too, I assure you. In fact, I will start in slamming Obama on all of your favorite blogs if that is what it will take. ABO2012
Obamas lefty supporters think its great that he has about 1 billion dollars for his campaign.
Making fun of Romney for spending maybe 30 million?
-
But never forget,
Millions of Independent voters are willing to vote this clown out of office for free..
Romney: TARP, Patriot Act, NDAA
Santorum: Patriot Act, NDAA, TSA, bedroom patrol
Newt: TARP, Patriot Act, NDAA
Ron Paul: The Constitution
Three big-government, big-spending, fake “conservatives,” and one real conservative constitutionalist. And all the fake “conservatives” and “small-government” people say hey let’s vote for one of those big-government NDAA guys. Pathetic! Hypocrites and fakes.
Oath Keepers: “To be blunt, we consider the NDAA of 2012 to be a declaration of war on the American people, and an act of treason.”
Boy Wes, you really have boiled it all down to a few acronyms. You must be able to sleep real well with such a command of the factoids. If only everything could be so clear to everyone we wouldn’t even need to have elections anymore. Sheesh.
Do you have any actual arguments? Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich are all for their version of big government, and they are all for things like the Patriot Act and NDAA indefinite detention just like Obama is.
Ron Paul has a lot more delegates than the media gives him credit for. It’s too bad the people who report on the political process for a living don’t understand how it works. Straw polls don’t matter. Beauty contests don’t matter. Delegates matter. And many of the current delegates are actually unbound delegates who can vote for anyone they want. Just because Romney got 50% in state X doesn’t necessarily mean he has 50% or more of the delegates.
If the convention goes to a second round, all delegates will be unbound and then can vote their conscience. And if that happens, people who don’t understand how the delegate process works might be in for a big surprise.
But let’s talk about transparent and honest elections. Has anyone reading this heard of and seen the video from the Athens, GA and St. Charles, MO caucuses? Blatant corruption. The Chairs refusing to follow their own rules and ignoring the people. And it’s all on video!
In St. Charles, two of the GOP committee later admitted to it right on camera! And pretty much no one in the media except Ben Swann thinks this is news! There’s even a 2008 interview of a top St. Charles guy admitting he rigged the 2008 caucus because HE didn’t like the delegates the people at the caucus chose. You can’t do that!
Athens, GA and St. Charles, MO caucuses. Go watch the video!
Rick Santorum said:
“They have this idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do, government should keep our taxes down, keep our regulations low, and that we shouldn’t get involved in the bedroom, we shouldn’t get involved in cultural issues. That is not how traditional conservatives view the world.
There is no such society that I am aware of, where we’ve had radical individualism and that it succeeds as a culture.”
No such society? It’s called The United States of America!
People think this guy is a “small-government conservative”!? Unreal.
And don’t start smiling too much, Romney supporters, since “I love NDAA and banning guns” Romney isn’t much better.
I think it’s pretty clear now that Mitt Romney is inevitable. At least for the GOP nomination.
As we all look back on Mitt’s victories, one seems to stick out in my mind. Just before Christmas I saw two things. Newt Gingrich had very good poll numbers in Virginia, and Newt Gingrich had failed to get on the ballot.
Romney had only one opponent in Virginia because the other candidates were inept. The only other candidate who could figure out how to get on the ballot was Ron Paul. Gingrich, Perry (remember him?) and Santorum showed me that if they couldn’t put together a campaign that could cover the most basic of details, they sure couldn’t run the country.
Ron Paul is loved by thousands and considered a nut by millions. Mitt beat him in Virginia by 58-42%. If Mitt can only beat Ron Paul by 16 points, I shudder to think what Obama is going to do to him.
I’ve been saying for a while now that a lot of the Republican elite want the Presidency open in 2016 so they can run for it themselves. By pushing Romney down our throats I think they’ve guarenteed it.
I think you grossly underestimate Ron Paul and his following. He will carry around 10% of the vote in most states. That would include 4 states that have more than 10 million voters(you count this). Much of the support Ron got in Virginia was frustrated Gingrich and Santorum voters who just wanted Romney to lose. But Romney won Virginia by 16% anyway. Don’t worry about Romney if he gets to the general election. All of the other candidates will be supporting the eventual nominee and all of this primary vote will be there for the Republican candidate. The only thing we really all have in common is that we want comrade Obama defeated.