The Race for the Senate: Who Will Come Out on Top?
For all the intense focus on the nail-biting presidential campaign, the upper chamber of Congress also has several races coming down to the wire that could possibly shift the legislative balance of power.
Like the presidential race, both the National Republican Senatorial Committee, helmed by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, currently chaired by Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), are expressing confidence for a strong showing going into Tuesday. Both are begging for last-minute cash from donors. And both are taking 11th-hour stabs at muddying the challengers.
Predictions are a best educated guess minus favoritism. So let’s take a look at the toss-up races — and add your own predictions in the comments section.
Virginia: I’ve been saying that this is a race that could actually drive more voters to the polls than the presidential contest here because of the strong partisans running and the strong partisan rivalry they evoke; I see more yard signs and bumperstickers for the Senate race than for POTUS. Former DNC chairman and Gov. Tim Kaine is running against former GOP Sen. George Allen to claim the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D). Both men have extensive records in the state that have provided plenty of fodder for targeted advertising that has spared no blows (except, well, reliving the “macaca” moment — haven’t seen an ad with that). The Real Clear Politics polling average has Kaine at one point over Allen. This includes a Washington Post poll last week that gave Kaine a 7-point advantage and a Rasmussen Report favoring Kaine by one. Many point to Gov. Bob McDonnell’s popularity, as Kaine’s successor, and wide margin of victory over state Sen. Creigh Deeds in 2009 — along with Allen’s very narrow loss to Webb six years ago — as proof that Allen can slide to victory. But in the political world, Webb is no Kaine, as Allen is no McDonald. I give the edge here to Kaine.
Arizona: Too late now to wonder if Sen. Jon Kyl decided to retire in hopes of picking up a VP nod, as was suspected by many. But the race to succeed the three-term Republican is rated a toss-up between Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona. This is both Goldwater country and Gabby Giffords country. Flake, an anti-pork crusader who regularly sends out punny comparisons of the national debt (i.e. “It’s par for the course for Congress to keep spending, but eventually we are going to end up in the rough”), has outspent Carmona and accused his challenger of having “issues with anger, with ethics, and with women.” Carmona ran an ad suggesting Kyl and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) like him better (they don’t) and the DSCC ran an ad with a breast cancer survivor accusing Flake of voting against cancer patients. This race hasn’t shown the best side of anyone. Though Carmona has caught up to Flake in the last month of the race, I think Flake will pull out the win on this one.
Massachusetts: Oh, what a contest this has been. With a few well-placed references to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau founder Elizabeth Warren’s claims of Cherokee heritage, Brown kept himself fairly competitive in the race. But Warren, who got a nice spotlight at the Democratic National Convention, has kept a 4.5 point average advantage over GOP Sen. Scott Brown this month. Brown shocked Washington — yes, even more than with his collegiate Cosmo centerfold shoot — by winning the seat left vacant by late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.). But my guess is that Sen. Brown will have to pack up his D.C. office after Tuesday.
Montana: It’s a tight race up in Big Sky Country in Rep. Denny Rehberg’s quest to oust Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester. Both are rough and tumble ranch guys who like to stress their guns and freedom messages. Montana is a state that likes its union Democrats but it doesn’t like President Obama — only 40 percent approval for POTUS here. Tester has only a 42 percent approval rating and Rehberg’s is at 41 percent. Libertarian Dan Cox has been chipping away at vote totals, garnering 8 percent in the latest Public Policy Polling survey of the race. And while it will be very close, I think Rehberg can win this one.
Connecticut: The last communique from the NRSC on this race to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) was at the end of September. “This one has Democrats scrambling… Republican candidate Linda McMahon just keeps on moving up in the polls against liberal Congressman Chris Murphy, to the point where this is now a dead heat,” it said. ”Linda McMahon needs to become the next Republican Senator from Connecticut in an upset victory.” The professional wrestling magnate tried for the Senate in 2010 but lost to Richard Blumenthal (D) by 12 percent. This time it’s closer as she faces Murphy, and she’s even run an ad in which black supporters tell voters it’s OK to vote for both McMahon and Obama. But the moderate Republican stance may still not be enough. Murphy has led by a 4-point average in the polls this month. I give the edge to Murphy on this race, but leave room for a possible — not probable — McMahon upset.
Nevada: Dean Heller was plucked from the lower chamber to fill the seat vacated by scandalous Sen. John Ensign, who resigned mid-term. Now Heller is running to keep that seat, and is being challenged by longtime Vegas Rep. Shelley Berkley. Berkely is the target of an ethics probe delving into whether she pushed for policy that would mean financial gain for her family, particularly centering around her husband’s medical practice. Still, she’s stayed on Heller’s heels in this tight race. Much of this will come down to whether voters think a political appointee has delivered enough to be elected in his own right. I think Heller will pull this off.
A batch of fine examples of why the Seventeenth Amendment was a mistake. =’[.]‘=
Amen. With the imbecile Akin and other assorted losers, the Demokraps with likely carry the day. Brilliant. When will the GOP remember that it isn’t about Jesus or abortion. If you care about either one, pick your fights. Surrendering candidate choices to one-issue candidates or the Tea Party is foolhardy; great & principled folks that the Tea Party and ro-lifers are but their choices for Nevada, Colorado and Delaware cost us the Senate in 2010. One-issue candidates plays into the hands of Stalinist monsters like Axelrod and Soros.
Conservatives have to think about the long struggle for the soul of America. If there is one left on Nov 6.
Even if the republicans won all 3 of those races (and they most likely would not have beaten Reid in any case)they would not have a majority in the Senate.
If you call adherence to our Constitution a single issue, I guess you have the tea parties nailed.
“adherence to the Constitution…….” ?? Guys like Akin & Mourdock forgot to read Article VI regarding religious tests to hold office.
What religious “test” has either Akin or Mourdock “established”? They were merely making personal statements, not creating any religious test for any candidate. If that is any indication of your knowledge and logic, it would be best if you not vote.
Conservatives are the only ones concerned with the soul of America. Your anto-Christian bias (hatred) is showing.
Those who nominated the two created the religious test. And for AgntOrgtVctm, depends on how you define being conservative. Those who want to force their “christian values” on the country also ignore the 1st Amendment.
Agree with you about Ohio, Bridget. Brown has too much of a machine behind him. I see more Romney signs than Mandel signs here in Toledo. Shame, because Josh seems to be a very decent guy. Iraq war vet.
While it looks bad for Mandel in northern areas of Ohio, people in Columbus, southern Ohio, and Cincy keep telling me that Mandel signs are everywhere and he’s doing well. Since Cleveland and Toledo are Brown’s home turf, it may be that he just didn’t focus his resources here and we are getting a distorted view of the race. He’s gone hard after the SE coal areas and may benefit from Romney momentum. Also, remember that the state voted to ban Obamacare here by 30+ points just last year – all 88 counties voted for the amendment, 81 of them by 20+ points. The polls have been tightening and RCP has moved the race to toss-up. That said, Brown has run one of the dirtiest campaigns in the history of mankind. It’s been a year of non-stop character assassination. It will be a sad day for this state if he is re-elected.
If I read this right, we are basically screwed…
Not according to Dick Morris we’re not http://www.dickmorris.com/
I think that Akin and Mourdock will both win and I say that because the people who live there know what monsters the opponents are. McCaskill is a crook and a liberal phony and Mourdock has the qualifications to win and other than saying something that any intelligent woman knows is only a gaff has a great record. Several other states I think might be carried by the winning presidential candidate like in Va. If Romney wins there then it is likely that Allen will also. WI. is another one that if Romney wins Thompson will also likely win. MA is probably a Warren win due the people who live there. They do not think for themselves aka Teddy Kennedy and his endless election. I am betting on 51 R’s for the Senate IF ROMNEY WINS!
You are reading Montana’s race pretty accurately.
Montanans watched as Denny Rehberg voted against all of the bailouts and was loudly outspoken from the beginning about the rapidly mounting debt for our next generations to pay, and voted against Obamacare. (He is also pro gun rights and pro life and pro energy resource development.)
Montanans also watched as Jon Tester voted for more of our state to end up locked up in federally owned wilderness, for confirmation of Sotomayor and Kagan on the Supreme court (both anti- second amendment rights), and most enthusiastically voted for Obamacare.
None of the other campaign rhetoric matters.
The honest truth is that Montanans were already tired of hearing about both these candidates BEFORE the negative advertising began. But, I agree that Tester is going to lose based solely on his vote for Obamacare. He sacrificed his career for his party- not for his principles or people. Montana already has a state high-risk pool run by BCBS that is much better than Obamacare.
Besides, any man who sleeps in his House quarters instead of having us taxpayers foot the bill for a posh Arlington apartment is just the kind of cheap S-O-B we need in Washington. Rehberg is a friend of a friend (well, who isn’t in this state?) of mine and seems like a decent guy when you meet him in person. He shows up at fundraisers for my kid’s parochial school, but I’ve never seen Tester there. (Racicot used to show up, too- but no Schweitzer. What does THAT say about Dems and Catholics?).
The hilarious thing is seeing Montana listed as a “leans Republican” state for the Presidential election. Who are they kidding? It’ll be double digits for Romney. Pundits make a big issue out of the fact that our two senators and governor are Dems, but Tester and Schweitzer would have to run as Republicans in any blue state.
Rehberg will not win by much- he’s done & said the occasional stupid thing that long-time politicians inevitably do- but he will win. Obamacare is the millstone around Tester’s neck, and it’s taking him to the bottom. Hope it was worth it for him, but I doubt it.
OHIO: Yeah, Josh Mandel may lose. Sherrod Brown certainly deserves to lose. He took over the “most liberal senator” spot when what’s-his-name was elected president. He’s a photograph of everything that’s wrong in Washington, a forty-year veteran of insider politics.
We’re doing what we can, and we’ll see how it turns out next week.
Who is voting for Mitt Romney? AKA let’s save America.
Catholics – who have been challenged by Obama in their faith and beliefs.
Blacks – who are against same-sex marriages as being immoral and who have suffered most from Obama’s failures.
Whites – who see that Blacks are voting for Obama because he’s Black; Whites will vote for Whites.
Republicans – none of which voted for Obamacare.
Tea Party followers – who like in 2010 are throwing out Liberals and RHINOS again.
Coal Miners – who are taking Obama’s threats to end coal mining in America seriously.
Vehicle drivers – those who are faced with TWICE the cost of gas since Obama took office.
Jobless workers – those who have been waiting for Obama to create jobs, but hasn’t; many have left the job market.
Stock and Bond holders – many of whom were shafted when GM and Chrysler went bankrupt.
Small Business owners – who have repeatedly been ignored by Obama.
Citizens against Obamacare – because of the upcoming increase in taxes and excessive regulation if Obamacare is not repealed.
Jewish folks – because Obama has not visited Israel even once since taking office; and Obama’s bad attitude toward Israel.
Hispanics – those who know that Obama’s failure to create sufficient jobs is hurting the U.S. economy in a bad way.
Business people – millions who are hesitant to grow because of the vast uncertainty due to Obama and Obamacare.
Workers – facing layoffs, underemployment and a worsening economy; lower wages.
Shoppers – those who see prices rising and product size shrinking; inventories reduced.
Concerned Citizens – who see the Benghazi incident as an Obama failure and even treasonous (un-American).
Concerned Citizens – who see Obama’s foreign policies as dangerous and failures.
Persons of Faith – who recognize Obama’s forcing provision by them of contraception to employees as Constitutional violations.
Gun owners – who have always been against the extreme liberal ideas Obama has for gun control.
Local government officials – who see Obama’s federal encroachment as unacceptable.
Truckers – who see the high price of gas as an attack on their livelihood.
Oil business – that reject Obama’s curbs on off-shore drilling.
Oil industry workers – that recognize the Keystone pipeline as Obama’s failure to encourage jobs and job growth.
Americans – who view Obama’s encouragement of high oil prices and lowered U.S. oil production as favoring OPEC and Arabs.
Concerned Congressmen – those that recognize that Obama has no cogent foreign policy, which could prove to be dangerous.
Individuals
Homeowners – who have seen their life saving and equity go down the drain because Obama has done nothing on the economy.
Health care providers – doctors and others who see Obamacare as a threat to their income; and harmful extreme regulations.
Concerned citizens – that are very concerned about the U.S. deficit and Obama’s extreme radical uncontrolled spending.
Others – concerned about Obama’s illegal activities, Fast and Furious, Benghazi, not defending DOMA, condoning illegal aliens.
Abortion foes – object to Obama’s callous lack of concern for the unborn and Obama’s radical third trimester abortion views.
Concerned Americans – who have been outright lied to by Obama when he claimed his administration would be transparent.
Car manufacturers – those that have seen car sales drop with Obama’s bad economy and economic policies hurting sales.
Housing developers – who like many others have seen the Obama economy cripple home construction and lower profits.
Mormons – who support Mitt Romney as a person of faith, good character, and honest principles.
Economists – that have expressed encouragement that Romney’s experience and knowledge will lead to true hope and results.
Military – seeing that Obama’s cuts will endanger their ability to protect our country.
Independents – who already have provided a surge for Romney, are convinced that the past 4 years of Obama is enough.
Evangelicals – who organized the largest get-out-the-vote for conservatism ever, in their concerted effort to defeat Obama.
Conservatives – a majority in U.S., are pushing hard to take the Senate, Presidency and House for the good of America.
Skeptics – who 4 years ago were duped into believing in Obama’s Hope and Change that eventually came to nothing, just lies.
Disillusioned Democrats – who have been uterly disappointed in Obama and will not vote for Obama or not vote at all.
and millions, millions more against Obama and his lies and failures.
Vote Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan. Let’s make America strong and great again because we can!
Nope. I’m going to disagree with you on this projection. I think this may be one of those years where the RCP average doesn’t work out all that well as a predictor for a variety of reasons.
(1) RCP average doesn’t do a very good job when the race in within the margin of error;
(2) This year for some reason most of the polls in the RCP average are using demographic weighting that represents the 2008 electorate. If you look at the latest early voting stats from the Colorado SOS, with 50% total votes cast so far (over 1.3 million voters, the largest real sample we have so far) a 2004-2010 ish demographic appears to be the case this year.
(3) Given that, we need to think about all of the polling so far in that light.
So, therefore, my predictions:
(1) VA. Romney takes VA by 5. Carries Allen with him.
(2) AZ. Carmona got hammered by his last ad, as well as rumors of yelling at/abusing female employees. Flake.
(3) MA. As much as I hate to admit it, Brown is an incumbent under 50% . I cannot believe that MA would elect a woman who lied about her ethnicity to get an advantage, as well as practiced law without a license, but they did elect Barney Frank.
Advantage Fauxcahautas, as much as I want to say it aint so. If there is karmic justice, I hope for an upset surprise.
(4) MT. Rehnberg. Tester voted for OCare, and can’t take it back. Tough noogies–people remember your vote.
(5) CT. Agree with you there. Leans D, but the D candidate sucks (never paid his mortgage?) and I think Sandy will affect turnout, and this one may surprise. Would Linda and Vince bring some pro wrestlers to her Senate office? Imagine the Undertaker sitting there in a stare down as tax policy is being negotiated with Schumer.
(6) Nevada. Heller is outperforming Romney. Heller.
(7) MO. I respectfully disagree. A very conservative state going deep red. Pissed at McCaskill and her husband’s financial shenanigans. Money from socons is enough to spin this to Akin. McCaskill is below 50% consistently–MO just needs the OK to vote for Akin.
(8) IN. Downticket voting with Romney makes this easier for Mourdock than thought. Lucky, because he’s a weak candidate.
(9) ND. Berg. This state is just too red for another Dem. Heidi voted for OCare in the House, yes?
(10) OH. Recent polls with decent splits show Mandel outperforming Romney in Northeast OH, and with a slight lead. Extreme toss-up, perhaps recount decided by Republican governmental apparatus in OH? Who knows on this one..a lot closer than thought, but OCare vote really creams Brown (the untold story of this election).
(11) WI. Thompson. Baldwin takes Dane county. Thompson wins the North. Romney surge pulls him over the edge.
(12) FL. Likely Nelson, I agree, but again the depth of Romney’s coattails matter.
(13) NE. Fisher. A bad campaign saved by a R +15 state. Kerrey ain’t going to do it.
(14) PA. The big surprise. Late Romney surge and piss poor Casey campaign (he’s a limp fish), combined with poor Philly and poor Scranton turnout due to Sandy, and I think Smith takes it. Shocker of the night.
(15) Out of left field. NJ. Menendez in an incredibly close race with Kyrillos after being ahead by double digits. Using taxpayer $$$ to pay for prostitutes is a no-no, especially when you don’t pay them enough. This is especially galling to people who are pissed about not having a home or electricity anymore due to Sandy, and they need to take it out on someone. Bob, you just might be that someone.
probably plus 4-5 R, enough to take the Senate 51-49 or so
Maybe Angus caucuses with the Repubs?
No, Heidi Heitkamp wasn’t IN the House to vote for OCare. Rick Berg was (and didn’t, I hope).
Otherwise, I agree with all of Bridget’s calls except IN, where I think Donnelly has distanced himself sufficiently from Obama that he pulls it out. I cringe to think of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, but that, unfortunately, is what Massholes are all about.
My old lady is a blue dog Democrat and Catholic (voted Clinton against Bush the 1st and Gore in Shrub’s 1st run and pretty much straight Demonrat back to Carter, although she went Reagan in term 2) who is backing Mourdock against Donnelly BECAUSE of that rape comment and the nasty political ads that followed from the Donnelly campaign. She utterly detests Obama, so that might have something to do with it. Her BS radar is tuned to “HIGH.”
I don’t think Mourdouck is getting hurt in the hinterlands, either. He wasn’t going to win the reliably blue areas anyway.
The numbers don’t look for Donelly. There is little chance of a Donelly win when IN will go to Mitt by 12-15 points. There will be little ticket splitting in IN. And no, Donelly hasn’t seperated himself from his ObamaCare vote. Mourdock by 4 at least. Turn out for Mitt will be huge in Indiana.
“FL. Likely Nelson, I agree, but again the depth of Romney’s coattails matter.”
Absolutely agree. I know people who are voting Romney and still voting for Nelson. Mac’s only chance is if Romney’s coattails are long enough. What drives me crazy are the people furious about Obamacare but still planning to vote Nelson. WAKE UP PEOPLE!
And why would anyone vote for any sitting Senator who has made no effort to pass a budget since 09?
Way past time for Nelson to retire. Let’s give him a nudge out the door.
There is a chance, the only chance, that Romney might pull Thompson over the finish line in Wisconsin. Thompson has been a poor candidate and represents the past, not the future. Baldwin, on the other hand, makes Pelosi look moderate. Too bad she won’t move to San Francisco. I have suspicions that the Republican Primary was polluted by Democrats, since Baldwin ran unopposed in her Primary. The Dems picked the weakest opponent.
Um, Angus King endorsed Big O for reelection and has endorsed Big Ocare too. An independent? About as true as saying Joseph Stalin was a humanitarian.
“Interested Party”: Great job of analysis…sorry, but i like it better than Bridget’s.
Ditto! I think, current polling methodology greatly under-represents public conservative sentiment. We’ll see real soon!
I believe early voting returns are supporting your assessment. When the dust settles, Rasmussen and Gallup are going to shine, and the others- well, they’re going to look pretty dingy.
So, Bridget, what you’re betting is that elected reps can lie, cheat, steal and be as corrupt as possible (or inept) and the majority is going to elect/re-elect them? What’s worse, the fact that it all doesn’t matter to voters, or that the voters think this is normal and acceptable behavior for candidates and it all goes around?
Bridget, fascinating coverage of the race for the Senate. Personally, I think the Republicans are going to end up with a three up advantage when the dust settles. At the same time, others are much more in tune to the Senate races than I.
Of course, I do hope the Republicans get the majority in the Senate. For one thing, it may help us name a special prosecutor to find out if the President committed any crimes in his handling of the slaughter at Benghazi.
I really don’t know one way or another, I have no proof, just conjecture. It would seem the President tried to cover-up his actions with regard to the terrorist attack at Benghazi. Calling a terror attack a “reaction to a youtube video” for two weeks after the terror attack kills four Americans sounds fishy to me.
When it comes to Presidential cover-ups, I’m reminded of the Clinton lies when denying he had any “sexual relations with that woman.”
If you remember, Clinton tried to argue that the term, “sexual relations” did not include their specific sexual acts. Clinton was a great parser of words.
Last week, Barack Obama played the same Clinton game of parsing words. And it worked. Let me remind you what Obama said about the terrorist attack on “Benghazi.”
The Denver reporter, KUSA-TV;s Kyle Clark, on Oct 26, asked, “where they (Stevens and Smith et al) denied requests for help during the attack?”
“Well, said President Obama,”we are finding out exactly what happened during the attack. I can tell you as I’ve said for months since this happened, the minute I found out what was happening, I gave three very clear directives. Number one, make sure we are securing our personnel and doing everything we need to.”
(there were a number two and number 3, but for our purposes, they’re meaningless; they involved Obama’s comments on investigating what happened and bringing wrongdoers to justice.)
Now let me ask you a question.
Say you turn on the radio and you’re slightly off the station. It just doesn’t sounds right; lacks crystal clarity.
Well, if you’re a good reporter, you should have picked up that off the station sound when the President said “Number one, make sure we are securing our personnel.”
Reporter Clark should have stopped him right there and said, “excuse me, but what does that mean? What does the phrase, “securing our personnel” mean?
This “off the station” comment should have rang Clark’s BS alarm. Apparently, it rang no one’s BS alarm but Rachel Peepers.
If Clark asked that follow up question, Obama’s house of cards may have fallen all over the floor. Why? Because the phrase, at best, is a very ambiguous expression. At worst, it’s a military expression Obama was told to use to mislead the listening public.
“Secure personnel” means to have them stand down. In other words, from the beginning at 5pm Washington time, Obama was saying “no” to any rescue effort.
So if anybody asks any of the crack editors that man PJM here whether Obama was disingenuous in his Denver Q & A, you now know what to say.
Since Obama admitted in Denver he was the one who nixed rescue efforts to save the four lives, you can tell them, “yes. Obama was the one who nixed rescue efforts.
Gee, Rachel, thanks for clearing that up.
I also should mention that Denver exchange had other misleading statements. But it’s late and sometimes I get a little tired doing every else’s work for them.
Dems will pick up a net 2 seats (Maine, MA). Dems lead in the Senate will be 56-44 when it is said and done.
Strong Romney showings in PA, VA, OH and maybe FL shld lift the Senate in Republican control along w the 4 others NE, ND, WI, MT. GOP shld easily hold NV, AZ and even IN due to strong Romney showing on election night. I even can see Linda McMahon winning in CT if Big O under performs slightly along w 2 very possible shocker victories in NJ and RI. That sleazy bastard who currently serves as leader of the Senate will get what’s a coming.
WE THE PEOPLE! The group of people who are known as the Tea Party! This is why.
“If I wanted America to fail”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZ-4gnNz0vc
How central banks collude with corporations to control the government.
Corporatism Explained
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUKsKL6DLwk
Economy warms as factories hum again Updated: 2012-11-02 07:20 By Chen Jia in Beijing and Yu Ran in Shanghai (China Daily)
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-11/02/content_15867562.htm
Congress members back legislation that could benefit themselves, relatives By Kimberly Kindy, David S. Fallis and Scott Higham, Published: October 7
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress-members-back-legislation-that-could-benefit-themselves-relatives/2012/10/07/c2fa7d94-f3a9-11e1-a612-3cfc842a6d89_story.html
The missing part of the equation is the Romney quasi-landslide that only a few of us are brave souls (or mistaken) have the nerve to predict, and the Romney extra turnout will give repubic candidates a nice coat tail ride…50 R senators and Mitt Romney Presidency will give this country a chance for a course correction. If not, welcome to the Former United States of America!
I respectfully don’t agree with the Allen/Kaine battle in Virginia. I see far more Allen signs than Kaine at least here in central VA. I also see many for state senate- Hurt, which if all the people with Hurt signs vote straight Republican ticket will be a decisive victory for Romney/Ryan and Allen.
– Senate with Ryan as tie-breaker when needed.