The Politically ‘Purple’ Southwest and the Presidential Election
Why are the Southwestern states so closely balanced? The answer is they are now a reflection of the new twenty-first century America: suburban, more Hispanic, more Asian, more Native American, more oriented toward high tech industry, etc.
Yet this area now faces severe and so far unrelenting economic problems. During my recent trip I saw far more closed businesses and homeless people than during my last visit five years ago. Obama is facing real troubles in the Southwest, where his re-election bid is in severe jeopardy.
The Southwest could also play a key role in the furious contests for control of the House and Senate. Texas had the most Congressional gains in re-apportionment (4 House seats). Given the state’s recent Republican tilt, most expected more GOP gains. But Texas Republicans tried to protect every GOP incumbent elected in their 2010 sweep and this has led to complications: a federal court has taken control of the Texas remap due to discrimination against Hispanics (a clear violation of the Voting Rights Act). Since Texas now has a majority of minorities — 38% Hispanic, 12% black, 5% Asian/Other — drawing districts based on sheer population will result in Democratic gains. If the House vote is close, Texas alone could make the difference.
If Texas Republicans over-reached in the House races, they are playing a much smarter game in the Senate as they have endorsed State Solicitor General Ted Cruz to succeed Kay Hutchison. Cruz, a conservative Cuban-American with ample Tea Party support, will face off against likely weak Democratic opposition as a solid favorite. With his ethnicity and conservative movement support, Cruz could become a national GOP star like Florida’s Marco Rubio.
Republicans currently have 47 seats in the U.S. Senate, so they need a net gain of four to guarantee control. Open Democratic seats in normally “Red” North Dakota and Nebraska should go Republican this fall. Republicans also have an even shot at open Democratic seats in Virginia and Wisconsin. Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Missouri, and (of course) Florida face very tough challenges. If the Senate races in the rest of the nation break evenly, the new Senate majority could come down to the Southwest where Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona all have open races that will be fiercely contested.
Barring an unexpected event that causes the national electorate to surge toward one party or the other, we’re probably looking at another tight “Red-Blue” campaign like 2000 and 2004. If so, watch the Southwestern states: history shows they are over 80% likely to go with the winner.
Texas was better to embrace the Lamar Smith approach: not overreach on seeking R congressional gains at the expense of Latino-majority districts. Smith figured it was better to provide short-term (one decade) Latino gains in exchange for more leeway on immigration enforcement. The Perry “we want all four seats” faction gives the Dems a rallying cry.
Embrace the Lamar Smith approach? You mean trying to destroy the internet by kowtowing to the interests of the MPAA and RIAA? Lamar seems to be willing to fight for SOPA to the last Hollywood dollar.
Mr. Reddy makes a critical mistake stating that Texas has a clear violation of the Voting Rights Act. The Supreme Court has not ruled in our case yet.
The Supreme Court ruled Friday, 1/20/12, against the gerrymandered map finagled by three Texas judges. Hurray!!!!
I really don’t think I live in the “Southwest” but one thing is certain, no Obama vote from me!
StevenB
Northglenn, Colorado
Looks like there are two Steves from Colorado posting here on PJ. I think I agree with you about not voting for Obama. I see Romney is the closest to a true conservative of the candidates who are left.
As a secular conservative, I can’t vote for Perry, Gingrich, or Santorum if they happen to be nominated. I’d end up sitting the election out; and many of my Republican friends say the same.
None of these guys are true conservatives. If they were just small government types, I could hold my nose and vote for one (I think all three are hypocritical and no better than Obama). It’s the pandering to the far right religious groups that turns me off on all three.
Paul is too ignorant of global geo-politics and global economics to be president. But he does make some sense about cutting spending across the board.
Seems to me you’re waiting for the second coming of Jesus Christ if you believe in such things.
You and your so called “Republican” ( LMAO ) Friends will sit this one out? Meanwhile the commie socialists will clean your clock…. your dignity, and your bank account / savings for the betterment and advancement of “diversity”…
I mean come on…what kindofputz are you?
What kind of “putz” are YOU? Some choice. A “commie socialist,” as you put it, who is now in office. Or vote for a religious socialist like Santorum, Perry or Gingrich. These guys are CINOs (conservative in name only).
One can’t be a true conservative by calling for small & limited government with one hand; but using the other hand to promote big government intervention in citizens’ personal and private lives. Perhaps you could spend as much time actually researching the positions of these guys on the so-called “social” issues as you seem to put into investigating the “commie socialist.”
I’m trying very hard to follow you, “promote big government intervention in citizens’ personal and private lives” could you give some specifics?
This politically precious region will decide the election. Put frankly, they would pick Obama over Romney. A more independent Republican like Ron Paul is needed to win in 2012.
Ron Paul would be an electoral disaster. A *disaster.* Fortunately for the GOP he’ll never get the nomination.
Paul is a sideshow, and I’m being generous; some would say freak show. Give it up already.
I disagree…totally, 100%
With Paul we would be trading one tragic sideshow in Obama to another ,snottier, even more tragic one with Paul…
No Paul vote here …
As an Arizonan, I think I can safely say it’s not our fault we’re purple. The problem down here is that we have too many damn Californians fleeing their sinking state to resettle here, and bringing with them the same brainless ideology whose consequences they’re running from.
I resent people that flee a situation, eg, CA,Mexicoetc…then try to make where they settle exactly the same as where they just left..
We are Reconquering the Southwest…and you gringos can’t stop us. Our population is rapidly growing, and the gringo population is aging and declining. We are over 50 million and united. You are down to 63.7% and extremely divided…and will be a minority by 2041. We are already a majority of the population under 18 in Alta California, Tejas, Nuevo Mexico and Arizona… and are rapidly taking over Nevada, Colorado, and Florida.
We are young and vigorous. You gringos are old and tired. We are the future. Your time has passed. We have defeated you without firing a shot. It is too late for you gringos to stop us from taking over the country. Gringos are down to only 53.5% of the population under 18…and a minority of births since 2010. You gringos will soon be a minority, and lose control of your own destiny. We will control who gets elected President. We will DOMINATE Alta California, Tejas, Nuevo Mexico and Arizona…and will be the swing voters in the swing states — Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. Whoever doesn’t do La Raza’s bidding will be thrown out of office.
We have Reconquered the Southwest from you gringos without firing a shot. Don’t you see that we have defeated you? You have no leaders, no hope, no future. You gringos will soon pay the price for your sins against us. The 21st century will undo and reverse the 19th century. La Reconquista is almost complete. It is only a matter of time. We are nearly there. In a few years it will all be over for you gringos.
Do you understand that we are CONQUERING this country right now right in front of your eyes, in broad daylight, without a shot being fired? Do you understand that we are CONQUERING America right now…and that your leaders are like the American Indian chiefs who sold their tribes out for bottles of Kickapoo Joy Juice and some repeating rifles…
We have already RECONQUERED the entire Southwest — Alta California, Tejas, Nuevo Mexico, and Arizona. We will soon have control of Nevada, Colorado, Florida, and Utah. After that, we will proceed to invade, conquer, and colonize the entire country. We are repopulating the country. We will eventually drive all you gringos out of the country, to Canada, back to Europe, to Mars, whatever, just get the hell out of this country because we’re taking over, and we don’t want you racist gringos here. We will drive you gringos out of here as sure as I’m standing here.
We have CONQUERED you without firing a shot. La Raza is 50 million strong…and by 2050 there will be 135 million of us concentrated in the Southwest that borders Mexico which will have nearly 150 million people. La Reconquista is almost complete. We are taking back the Southwest, the land that you gringos stole from us in the 19th century. Demographics Is Destiny. We are repopulating the country. It is all over for you gringos. By 2041 you gringos will be a minority. A minority that is aging, shrinking and dying. By 2050 we will be 135 million strong, about 30% of the population, an overwhelming majority in the Southwest — and an even greater percentage of children. We will soon be an outright majority.
The Gringo’s world is ending… Not with a bang but a whimper.The Gringo is going gentle into that good night… Don’t rage against the dying of the Gringo’s light. Por La Raza todo. Fuera de La Raza nada.
And when you’ve completed your goal of conquering the Southwest and turning it into drug infested, jobless poverty stricken Mexico North, you’ll be sneaking into Utah, Idaho, Oregon, Kansas, Nebraska etc looking for work. Am I right?
They leave a drug infested, dirty disqusting land, country…travel north and try to make the new place exactly like the one they just ruined..
Razzy, Baby, where ya been? Been missing your comic relief!
Assume nothing “La Raza”.
Latinos are not monolithic, and certainly not pro-marxist. Why come to the shining “City on a Hill”, and piss away an exceptional Constitution ? Not every American of Latino descent is ignorant enough to wish for a stupid Utopia, and a racist one at that! I take your ravings as crazy talk from a lunatic. If you had the numbers you may find that we have the guns. Be careful that your dream may become a nightmare.
“Not every American of Latino descent is ignorant enough to wish for a stupid Utopia, and a racist one at that!..”
Really? Look back at the Aztecs, Mayans and Incas….where these people are descended from..of.
Hey Raza, YOU AGAIN?!! Go away already; we’ve heard it before and you’re wrong, wrong, wrong.
But your boyfriend is a gabacho!!!
Hey, La Raza’s back! Where you been guy? We missed your comic relief. I was afraid the INS caught you.
La Raza is a fake; just a Democrat trying to scare you. Ask yourself why he is doing this.
You gringos and racist Republicans are finished. It may take a few years, but in the end we will defeat you, and there is nothing you can do about it.
We will soon be a majority in the Southwest. And by 2050 – Hispanics under 18 will outnumber Europeans under 18 in America, 39% – 38%. (The other 23% will be Africans, Asians etc.) We are the future. Your time is over. You gringos are aging, dying, disappearing. We have Conquered you. You have been defeated. We are now the majority. You gringos are a minority.
We are Conquering Tejas. In Tejas, two-thirds of the newborns and half the schoolchildren are Hispanic… We will soon Dominate Tejas just like we are currently Dominating Alta California… When that happens it is all over for you white Republicans and racist gringos…
You racist white Republicans are panicking because you know that your time is coming to an end. We will soon DOMINATE Tejas, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Georgia etc. You will be out of power, FOREVER. The joke is on you gringos. Adios gringos.
You’re an idiot.
You do know you’re a tortilla munchin’ ding dong, don’t you?. Does your skill set extend beyond a leaf blower’s start button ?.
The truth hurts, gringos.
It may take a few years, but in the end we will defeat you, and there is nothing you can do about it.
Por La Raza todo. Fuera de La Raza nada.
“La Raza” is invited to go back to Mexico and work for an American miracle THERE-your lost people obviously NEED YO THERE NOW!
Yeah, well, fuera you, too.
my co-worker’s step-mother makes $84/hour on the computer. She has been out of work for 8 months but last month her income was $7457 just working on the computer for a few hours. Here’s the site to read more… LazyCash10.com
Hello? Moderators? Spam here! Is anyone paying attention?
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SOPA Strike! Thank you for being a part of the largest online protest in US history. Senators need to hear from you NOW. http://americancensorship.org/
Three of the 4 states mentioned will go Obama. Texas or Colorado though not both will go Republican.
AZ, NM are inundated with uneducated illegals, trailer park and mobile home barrios and multi-generational welfare recipients (drive through AZ’s I-10, I-40 and NM’s I-25 corridors to get the picture).
There’s no way they’d cut off the gravy train if considering voting against their Food Stamp President.
Colorado went big-time Illiberal ~ +15 years ago. The metro areas are inundated with illegal, anchor baby punks and West Coast transplants who live in gated communities surrounded by these miscreants and consider it ‘multicultural’ or ‘diverse’. Whereas education, public safety and government policies are a joke.
I recall former Denver Mayor Hickenlooper having ‘meetings’ at the strip joint, Shotgun Willy’s. Way to pick ‘em, Denver!
Conservatives for the most part live in the Western, Eastern Colorado. They’re the minority, older and can no longer compete with the moronic aquatters/occupiers bombastic nonsense.
Texas.. people keep talking about ‘Mexican Conservatives’ or ‘not all Mexicans like illegals in their cities..’ – oh yeah?
What have Americans of Mexican lineage done to squelch or lessen illegals presence, graft? Nothing. Notice it’s states OTHER THAN MEXICAN lineage government representatives, concerned citizens who speak up against said theft of entitlements, less safety in their children’s schools, communities, law enforcement looking the other way etc.,
Has ANYONE read of Americans with Mexican lineage ‘outrage’ of this administration halting ALL Salvadorans deportation from the U.S. (due to El Salvador’s ’01 earthquake.. riiiight) thus us taxpayers continue paying for MS-13 POS and the like?
Yeah.. neither have I.
Why do you think the Obama Admin is pushing so hard to appease the (illegal alien) Mexican demographic? Obama is doing his best to change the socio-political framework of the region, and if that means flooding it with foreigners, so be it. They vote mindlessly in lockstep 90%+ for Democrats because they promise to give them whatever they want.
Insightful article and very much an eyeopener.
Mr. Pearce’s ouster as President of Arizona’s Senate should have been a wake-up call to all of America. Amazingly, Congresswoman Giffords shooting spree in Tucson, Arizona, was treated as a “lone wolf” incident (in a hotbed of leftist propaganda and hard line activism).
There are more hard left, radical and foreign representative organizations peppering Arizona’s airwaves with political, antiAmerican vitriol than ever before in the State’s history.
Spanish radio stations especially carry socialistic, hard-left mantra’s espoused in their native countries, right here in the USA…and freely. No wonder Islamism, Hispanic studies et al are finding a willing “turning of the head” syndrome in these southern States.
This election cycle for 2012 Presidential Candidates will be fraught with fraud and deceit…but Americans, by and large, shrug their shoulders at these States as inconsequential, while they are hotbeds of hatred and vitriol the likes of which never seen in the USA before.
Wake-up America…massive fraud is all around We The People. America is under attack from without as well as from within. God Bless America…Save Her Soul. Amen!
Well I for one in Colorado HATE Obama and Democratic Obamunism (a hatred shared with with the pandering, biased media whores)! Tea Party politics (and American heritage) means these are our anti-American enemies. Three, four years soon without even a federal budget? Would the media let a Pubbie prez get away with that without next to tar and feathering the bastard? Of course not!
This is a get rid of the bastard election for us! I have no doubt about the outcome ~ my doubts are only about how little the push back will go. My litmus is this: WILL ANY CANDIDATE MAKE REVERSING THE FEDERAL 2X SINECURES FOR FEDERAL OVERLORDING BUREAUCRATS OUR POLITICAL OBJECTIVE?
Because if they don’t then the people are slaves to our government masters, and the Tea Party Revolt goes down to defeat ~ which means that the masses must go back to prepare to wielding their arms in revolt. Remember your Shakespeare!
Ron Paul – Predictions in Due Time (Original) They were spot on! This is Ron Paul’s famous Predictions speech from April 24, 2002. This is the original video compiling recent images and video to give his speech a chilling effect.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGDisyWkIBM&fe…
The key to winning AZ, NV, FL, and VA is my long awaited super duper mass automatic refinancing plan. Those are the swing states with the greatest number of deep underwater “homeowners”. Once my extention of my recess appointment powers has been ratified by the courts, I will put a Housing Advocate in charge of the FHFA. Ben Bernanke is on board with QE3 and QE4 because the Republicans made a strategic error in their promise not to reappoint him, and he wants to stay in power longer than Greenspan. We will enact a plan to refinance every current and paying mortgage in the country at a 2% interest rate for 30 yrs, regardless of LTV ratios. The refi will be automatic if your current mortgage is being paid, even if you are unemployed and the original mortgage was taken out in the name of your cat and signed with a pawprint. Of course the supplicants won’t actually get the money until I am safely reelected, so they have an irresistable incentive to vote for me. The prospect of saving $400-1000/month for the next 30 years will make even the most diehard Republican vote for me, because everyone takes care on #1. Then I will screw them in my second term by taking all that money back in the form of increased taxes and healthcare costs. Ha Ha Ha. In my second term, the final transformation to Socialism will pass the Point of No Return.