The Pajamas Media Election Guide for Dummies
Scenario #4: The “Rocky Mountain High” scenario
If Obama loses all of the above red states except Colorado and Virginia while taking Pennsylvania, he wins.
Odds: 1 in 8
Scenario #5: The “Here we go again” scenario
Obama wins North Carolina and Nevada while losing Pennsylvania. McCain wins the rest of the red states in play. Ohio is too close to call which leaves the election in limbo.
Odds: 1-40
Scenario #6: The “Moon over Miami” scenario
McCain takes every red state in play except Florida while winning Pennsylvania. He would also need a
surprise win in either Iowa or New Hampshire.
Odds: 1-75
Scenario #7: The “Whole Shebang” scenario.
If Obama takes any combination of 3 of the 10 states in play, he wins.
Odds: 1 in 5
There are about a dozen more scenarios involving Obama and those ten states where he realizes 270 electoral votes but, realistically, it basically comes down to three states for McCain: Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. He can win by losing any one of those states — with great difficulty but he could still eke out a victory. More to the point, he needs all three since it would be an extraordinary turn of events for McCain to win every red state in play…
According to the polls.
Now, here’s how to anticipate what will happen:
Here are some poll closings in the battleground states (all times eastern):
7 p.m.: Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m.: Ohio, North Carolina
8 p.m.: Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri
It would be surprising if any network called one of those states right when the polls closed. If that happens, one of two things are likely: 1) if called for Obama, it will probably be a very short evening and an Obama blowout or 2) if called for McCain that early, get set for the election night ride of your life because Johnny Mac just might pull off the election surprise of the ages.
But few expect such quick calls (there is a portion of Indiana in a different time zone where the polls won’t close for another hour). But we can still glean some vital information from the early results.
I would suggest you tune to Fox News coverage if for no other reason than to watch the master of election night analysis, Michael Barone. Simply put, Barone has forgotten more political minutia than the entire teams at CNN and MSNBC have written down in front of them. He will give some county totals in these vital states — one or the other candidate is running ahead or behind when it comes to the history of the area. Within a half an hour we will probably be able to assess John McCain’s chances in states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Also, although the popular vote margin is irrelevant in the sense that it doesn’t count, the gap between Obama and McCain could be significant. If it is more than 3 or 4 points, it will probably be curtains for the Republican. And an early call in Virginia for Obama probably means McCain has an uphill battle for a win. It would indicate that the polls, while not perfect, are probably within their margin of error and therefore a mostly true indication of how the evening will go.
The longer the evening wears on without a victor, the better for McCain. But even if Obama hasn’t reached 270, if he has been declared the winner in one of the big three — Ohio, Florida, or Pennsylvania — it would take a whole slew of surprises in other states for McCain to pull it out. Hence, while not technically the victor, Obama could have wrapped up the race fairly early by knocking McCain out of the box in one of the three states he absolutely has to have for a realistic shot.
Interested in the question of a “Bradley effect” where voters tell pollsters they will vote for an African American and then end up voting for his white opponent? Watch New Hampshire. The Granite state surprised Obama in the primaries when Hillary Clinton, down 7 points the last weekend before the primary, came back to win by 3. If there is anything to the theory, it will be born out in the almost all white state of New Hampshire.
Finally, there is a small chance that there will be 3, 4, even 5 states too close to call and where both parties will sic their lawyers on the justice system. Some states may even see a move at midday to extend voting hours, count provisional ballots, disqualify voters, and otherwise throw a monkey wrench into the proceedings. It is unknown what effect, if any, this might have on voters around the country. If one side or the other is seen as cheating or trying to game the system, it might sway some of the undecideds and put them in one camp or another. Enough to make a difference somewhere? Who knows.
So there you have our handy, dandy guide to watching tonight’s proceedings. If you’re like me, you will probably have a tall, cool glass of hemlock in the fridge ready to imbibe the moment your candidate gives up the ghost. After two years of back and forth, up and down, attack and parry, smear and slime, it’s a wonder anyone has the stomach for voting at all.
So what are McCain’s overall odds, Mr. Moran? If you were a bookie, that is.
Speaking of bookies, what are the oddsmakers in Vegas saying about all this? Can anyone mention those numbers?
At http://www.intrade.com/ you can buy 1 share for Obama to win for $9.17 a share for McCain to win it is $0.91 – so the smart money says that McCain has a 1 in 10 chance of becoming the next President. I wish I knew about this site back in Nov when Obama stock was trading for under $10.
You’ll have to pardon my ignorance here as a British observer of this whole process. I’ve been following the election coverage and many pundits on both sides seem to think that drinking something called Kool-aid is having an effect on the outcome of the election. It seems to do this by affecting the thought processes of those who consume it.
What is this potent substance and how can it have such an effect? Is it likely that the next president will move to ban this drink on public health grounds?
Will we see a War on Kool-aid in the coming years to add to the War on Terror, the War on Drugs and the War on Syntax that have characterised the Bush years?
Nothing like fair and biased reporting, Sir.
3. Jonesy55:
Please Google the following:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kool-Aid
Jonesy55, the Kool-aide reference is to Jim Jones and his 900 hard-left followers who believed that their revolutionary communism mandated a group suicide, which they did in 1978 by drinking Kool-aid laced with cyanide, the irony not lost that Kool-aid is a children’s drink. Thus “drinking the Kool-aid” became a metonymy for the immature leftists who seem to wish for social and economic suicide in order to maintain their belief system.
Thank you Right Brain for your succinct definition of drinking kool-aid. We wouldn’t want our European observers to lose the nuances here. Personally, Ifind tonight like an oncoming auto accident. You know it is bad, but you are morbidly compelled to look. I just hope that Murtha and Franken both lose.
I see, thanks, that Kool-aid stuff sounds mighty dangerous.
Whatever happened to Ron Paul, he seemed pretty intelligent, he might have been a good choice for the GOP.
I hope you all attend the January 20, 2009 “Obama Is An Illegitimate President” rally in Washington, DC. We expect over ten million ranting, screaming, fanatical conservatives protesting throwing acorns along Pennsylvania Ave. and onto the steps of the Capital. Additionally, effigies of all Hollywood notables will be hung and burned (in an environmentally friendly manner) with pledges that no one will support Obama or Hollywood. Code Pure Red has promised to line the parade route and, in unison, moon the newly inaugurated Obama. Caution! Wear masks since it’s been rumored Code Pure Red plans on a 1,000 flatulent salute.
A counter demonstration has been planned by CPUSA where cards will be given for free gasoline cards, grocery card, debit cards for banking and retirement accounts of conservatives and a box of matches to be used burn mortgages, rental agreements, and miscellaneous bills. All receiving cards will be automatically registered in each formally Red state. It has been rumored that more than 80 million additional illegals have flooded the country and will attend the counter-protest making it the largest of its kind in the universe.
Police have been advised to arrest all those protesting Obama’s election and to place them in the reflecting pool. There are rumors of it being filled with oil (or possibly tar) from Iran so be warned to wear flame retardant clothes and watch out for bags of feathers.
In the meantime, I’ll be at home practicing that funny Democrat salute required by the first bill promised to pass Congress and to learn that awful goose-step march.
See you at the rally!
Gosh, with friends like cedarhill on your side, how in the world are you guys losing?
you mentioned fox covereage
but forgot to mention turning to cnn and msnbc around 11 oclock when it’s obvious Obama has lost the election. Their analysis will be most enlightening.
Jonesy55
Ron Paul is a Libertarian who usually voted with Republicans so he was kind of under their wing. He ran in the Republican primaries, lost but continued to run as an independent. Traditionaly when you lose in a primary you donate any campaign money to the winner. Ron Paul didn’t do that. Also he is considered as spoiler that drew money, and attention away from the serious contenders.
He retains his congressional seat but his name is pretty much mud with the Republican leadership.
I expect Obama to win but the question really is what is his margin of victory in states where ACORN has been active. If it is within 1-2% in those states then we can safely say that like Kennedy in 1960, that Obama won by fraud. In once sense, I hope Obama wins by enough in the battleground states that nobody can question his legitmacy. I do not want Republicans to spend the next four years yacking about his Fraudulency so we can get on with rebuilding the party. If it does look like Obama won by fraud let’s take it like Richard Nixon and be men and women about it.
And low and behold the theft is underway…
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2008/11/021984.php
52 % McCAIN
45 & Obama
________________________________________________
PUMA , Ralph Nader , Green Party , Reagan Dem. ,
NRA , Catholics , Prolife , Christians , Jews ,
Bradley Effect , CEOs , ect.
Boris,
Who said anything about friends? Presumptuously boring again. I hope you still watch Mr. Rogers reruns and if you do, don’t bother asking about being my friend too. The Obama Doctrine is simply you’re either a slave or a prisoner. Which one are you?
I’ll expect you to be at the rally.
Scenario #7 or even worse. I voted against the communist this morning, but I can’t out vote the entire government education system in this country. The chickens have come home to roost.
The Anti Jihadist:
McCain has a 1.9% chance of winning tonight. That’s according to fivethirtyeight.com. Before you dismiss the results as MSM propaganda, consider that 538 has no bias. It’s a sophisticated polling algorithm that is notoriously accurate.
As for people like RaZoR, that is transparent, willful delusion. He has made up those numbers. They do not reflect any form of reality.
Kool-Aid. And there was me thinking it was a reference to the Tom Wolfe book, Electric Kool -Aid Acid Test whereby the erstwhile Tom follows the hippy cavalcade across California and then eastwards with messiah, Ken Kesey and his Merry Pranksters. Kesey had written One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest then using his royalty money funded the whole shenanigan including the acid used in the Kool-Aid enabling the hippy crew to get out of their boxes whilst listening to the Grateful Dead, also roped in. Wolfe’s portrayal of this counter culture event was not in the least dewey eyed and he pictured the infighting and power play amongst this bunch of disparate evangelists in vivid detail. Boredom enveloped the scenario in the end and the whole performance fizzled out. Out of these ashes, at least the Dead emerged and became one of the big massive selling US bands until Garcia quite ironically died an early death. All of this leads me to the thought that the US is in the throes of a similar phenomena. Drunk on the idea of ‘change’ and an amorphous kind of wishful thinking. Worried about being hated as a reactionary force in Europe and the Middle East they reach for the shaman of ‘hope’ who will magically transform the perception. Barry is Ken. Difference is that with PC and a wholesale social politicisation of the US via it’s education system and media his client base is not limited to rich hippy kids, it’s millions gulled into believing this snake oil charlaton’s pitch. He isn’t the author Ken was. He isn’t the hippy Ken was. But he’s hitched his message to Ken’s idealism and dreams. Charitably speaking Ken was a true idealist who gave his money away. Looking at pictures of Obama’s Hyde Park house on the hill I can’t see him doing that. He is undeniably aligned with crooks and true haters of the American Dream. He is an agitator who struck pay dirt, beguiling a confused nation worried about it’s direction and force for good. He is a blatant manipulator of public consciousness. He uses his half blackness in the most cynical ways possible. Even Colin Powell is duped for God’s sake! People are asking if I’ll stay up to watch. Nope, I’ll pass on that dubious, masochistic pleasure. When news of a multiple mororway pile up down the road airs I don’t rush to gloat, I think poor buggers and move on. I suggest America does the same. This is a car crash of massive proportions but sooner or later the road get’s cleared and the traffic resumes it’s busy way. Same goes for the good old US.
VOTE TO END ALL THE HATE
Regardless of whom any voter chooses to vote for or against, all voters will want to vote to end all the hate. Enough!
http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2008/11/vote-to-end-all-hate.html
The writer did not really discuss the real key to the election: Pennsylvania. If it becomes clear that McCain is going to win PA, then he will swamp Obama in all the Red states. The tide will roll west and south. If he’s winning in PA, then he will also win WV, VA, IN, OH, & IA… rust-belt States all. FL will also go his way. PA this year is the bellwether of the nation. McCain won’t win without PA, unless it is squeaker close, but then his chance is vanishingly small.
Just a Heads up– I LIVE in that part of Indiana on central time…
Our polls are open 6-6 (CST) instead of 7-7 (EST)…
So the whole state should close at the same time…
But… of the four people there when I went to vote, one man was trying to vote in a precinct where he was NOT registered and had a lawyer with him… so if there’s a 25% voter-fraud rate in Indiana, McCain may be in trouble….
Just dropping by to let you know that the election party I planned to attend was already packed. Just got there to hear the vice ambassador warn us against expecting too much from an Obama administration.
And that was in the tiny European country of Norway. Dunno if that is pissing you of or not;) Can’t even imagine how it’s like over there.
Well, good luck to everyone…let the ballots speak!
Ron Paul was no spoiler. Despite their allignment on many issues, most Ron Paul supporters wouldn’t vote for Mike Huckabee anyway, and none of the other Republican candidates could possibly strike a stronger claim to Paul’s base. In other words, Paul’s supporters wouldn’t have voted in the Republican primary if he weren’t running, so he made little difference. Fred Thompson, now there’s a spoiler. Why did conservatives draft him, anyway? We already had five conservatives to choose from (Huckabee, Tancredo, Brownback, T. Thompson, Hunter).
Sometimes in life one sees something unfold that is irrational and inexplicable, until after the fact when the Monday morning quarterbacks get to put their 2 cents in.
One such example was the odds against the Giants winning the Super Bowl last year, prior to the Tampa Bay Game; Other examples are the Israeli war of Preservation in 1948 and our own Revolutionary War.
McCain will win because as Dick Morris explained, the pollsters have no paradigm to guide them here.
When was the last time that we had a national election where one party was totally backed by a “gracious” mass media and a general innuendo was publically floated that someone voting against the annointed was a racist or worse.
A mild example of the current contest, and a possible harbinger of a similar result, was the second Dinkins- Giuliani NYC mayoral race.
All the polls had Dinkins ahead, the exit polls showed him ahead by +3, and all the networks declared the mayor the winner.
In the morning, I woke up to the radio announcer saying that Giuliani had won. Even the exit polls had been off by at least 4 %.
The reason, in retrospect, was clear; A significant number of voters were not comfortable telling the pollsters that they did not vote for the black candidate in a racially charged caampaign where the media was in the tank for the black candidate.
Just recently the racial charge was preemptively launched by Chris Matthews on MSNBC, Joel Klein, Erica Jong and others.
Look for the exit polls to be incorrect not in states like New Hampshire, which is homogenously white, but in states such as Pennsylvania,Florida,Ohio and yes Virginia, where there exists both large moderate white population centers and also politically self-confident black urban areas.
In other words, no one knows who is favored, as the polls are not accurate, but I believe McCain has the edge given Obama’s radical associations and unconventional past.
Have a link some of you may wish to read. It is accessed via the “classical values” blog site on Pajamams Media.
http//seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/toast/
Its a very long and detailed post, which if true, will make Western Penn. the bell weather to watch if there is to be an upset. The keystone state may well be the bump in the road which upsets the “Ones” victory chariot.
Just got there to hear the vice ambassador warn us against expecting too much from an Obama administration
The vice ambassador should come speak to young American Obama voters. The two in front of me in the polling line today apparently believe that Obama execretes lollipops and the world will be filled with cuddly bunnies and dancing unicorns when he enters the White House.
Americans will wake up – if not today, at some point within the next 4 years. And when the Obamessiah crashes, he will crash hard. Unfortunately, we might all go with him.
#29,
Point taken, but I don’t think that was what the vice ambassodor was referring to;) His point obviously was that Obama would face the same constraints that any American president does, and is not gonna turn America into Sweden just overnight.
Good luck anyway, it’s not over for ya yet.
Drinking the Kool-Aide?
Why, that’s five yards short of common sense.
I’m drinking Miller, right now.
That’s living the “High Life.”
“McCain has a 1.9% chance of winning tonight. That’s according to fivethirtyeight.com. Before you dismiss the results as MSM propaganda, consider that 538 has no bias.”
Dude, warn me before you do something like that! Do you know how expensive it is to replace a shorted-out flat-panel LCD after you do a spit take all over it?!?
You only need to look at how Nate decided to change his “method of allocating undecided votes” in to see how seriously partisan Nate is. He’s so far in the tank that he can’t even see the surface any longer.
Anti Jihadist: Applying the lowest common denominator to add the fractions, I get 149/600 chance of McCain winning. That’s very close to 25%. If my math is right.
Willful delusion? Believing any polling is accurate or scientific. If you throw enough darts you will eventual hit the bulls-eye.
It is much easier to come up with ways that Obama wins than with ways that McCain wins. Wish it wasn’t so, McCain has to be lucky and the polls have to be inaccurate for McCain to win.
Earlier today I commented to a coworker that I thought the Democrat/Republican poll weighting assumed too much advantage for Democrats. He observed that polling companies need to be accurate enough to get future business. A somewhat cynical person would say that the optimum poll model would favor Democrats by enough to allow the customer, media organizations, to write the stories they want to write while being close enough to reality to justify future business. This plus experience with the 2000 and 2004 elections suggests that McCain will outperform the latest state polls, but probably not by enough to change who moves into the White House.
Big Ben:
“Sometimes in life one sees something unfold that is irrational and inexplicable, until after the fact when the Monday morning quarterbacks get to put their 2 cents in.”
I agree with your view; what HAS NOT been discussed is the women vote. First Presidential where a woman can be elected. I don’t think the Polling Data has fully taken this in view. The Media is pushing for the first black President even though he is an EMPTY SUIT. They have been completely blind to the first Woman elected as Vice President.