The Next Round in Iraq
Even if al-Qaeda somehow knows its chances of success in Iraq are minimal, they are required to try to create the impression that U.S. forces are leaving because of them. A major reason behind al-Qaeda’s renewed activity in Iraq is to capitalize on any fear Iraqis might have as the U.S. forces leave and to have U.S. forces leave with bombs going off around them, in a desperate attempt to make it look like a retreat rather than a success-enabled shift in strategy. If it appears to the Muslim world that al-Qaeda has lost, then the game is close to being over. Ayman al-Zawahiri’s former mentor, Dr. al-Fadl, has turned into a harsh critic of al-Qaeda and says what is on the minds of many Muslims: if al-Qaeda is acting on the will of Allah, then how come it’s been defeated? The costs of losing in Iraq are far too high for al-Qaeda and so we must expect desperate measures in the coming months. If al-Qaeda cannot point to a victory elsewhere in spite of its loss, such as taking over Somalia or large portions of Pakistan, then their support will dwindle even faster than it currently is.
Expect Iran to up the ante in Iraq in round two as well, despite Iraq’s attempts to give them an investment in their economic success. General Odierno said in late June that Iran is still training and financing insurgents in Iraq that use mortars and roadside explosives, and that “many of the attacks in Baghdad are in fact done by individuals supported by Iran.” The Iranian government has reacted to its own internal unrest by ordering an increase in violent activity in Iraq. The Iranian people aren’t going to forgive the regime anytime soon, so such episodes of serious instability followed by Iranian-backed action in the region are going to be a fact of Iraq’s future.
The release of five Revolutionary Guards officers who supported these networks disguised as diplomats won’t change that. Muqtada al-Sadr is currently working on his religious education in Iran to become an ayatollah, after which he will return to Iraq in an attempt to challenge moderate Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani for the allegiance of Iraqi Shiites.
Al-Sadr and Iran have miscalculated, believing that the Shiites don’t support him because of credibility issues and not because he’s brought so much misery to them for an ideology they reject. His main base of support in Iraq is among those that want all U.S. soldiers to immediately leave the country, and so once the withdrawal is completed, it is hard to see what sort of platform he can use that will successfully appeal to the Shiites. He will probably focus on saying the ruling government isn’t “Islamic” enough and that the remaining U.S. advisors need to leave immediately, but this argument will have significantly less traction. Nevertheless, expect al-Sadr to come back to Iraq with extensive Iranian backing and to try to influence the Iraqi government by offering his party as a political partner in parliament and by developing a loyal base of support that can destabilize the country if he desires.
Even though this analysis is optimistic, there are other potential roadblocks in Iraq’s future to watch out for. Syria and Iran still have the capability to unleash a massive terrorist offensive if desired. Massive corruption remains and the decline in oil prices is making it more difficult for the government to fund its security apparatus. Millions of Iraqis who have fled the country, including many who have been Westernized and can bring education, entrepreneurship, and moderate beliefs to Iraq, have yet to return. The referendum on the status of Kirkuk has been indefinitely postponed and the dispute has yet to be resolved.
The next round in Iraq will soon begin. Serious dangers lie ahead, but if Iraq was able to overcome the disaster that was looming in 2006, then those serious dangers can be met with serious optimism.
Nobody can predict how things will evolve in Iraq, but I think there is one dimension which has been overlooked: The american presence has left a strong mark on the children. 20 years from now, today’s iraqi children will be the new wave of national energy. Their fears and aspirations will shape the outcome. If they can shed the fatalistic attitudes of their elders, there will be a durable transformation.
In the meantime, the huge potential for unrest in Iran and China may well result in more “news-worthy” developments. GWB’s initiative was a bold gamble whose ultimate outcome will be unknown for quite a while, which is why those who bet that is was a “total failure” and those who profess that it was the right thing to do are so ardent in their equally unprovable predictions.
In any case, discrediting Al-Qaeda and its cohorts in the eyes of the muslim societies was, and still is, the urgent task, and so far it seems to me their stock has lost it former luster!
I agree with the good Professor: the effect of this war and the soldiers that fought it on the children of Iraq is a force to be reckoned with. My husband was in Ramadi at the start of the “awakening” and most of the pictures he sent home had lots of children in them and the soldiers interacting with them in a positive way. My husband is 6’5″ and most of his body was covered in digi and weapons–the only part of him that showed was his two adorable dimples and wide smile. That was enough to draw the kids to him. Never again will those children believe that American Soldiers are monsters. It make take 20 years, but change will come.
I love the optimism that the previous commenters had/have. Alas, the fatalism is part of Middle East culture and is central to islam. I’m not as optimistic. I don’t think there has been nearly enough reconciliation between the groups(Sunni, Shiite, Kurds, and the assorted others). I fear it will require significant numbers of American personel for a lonnnngggggg time to make sure our investment of billions and more importantly, the investment of american blood will pay off. Cultural changes require cataclysmic events and/or long time periods to happen. Has the liberation and presence of Americans for approximately 7 years been enough? I have strong doubts, I’m sorry to admit. BTW, I’m a radical free-willer, I have no time for fatalism. Free will is what makes us “made in the image of God”.
Typo: It MAY take 20 years…
#1 Professor, I don’t think anyone is betting for or against. Dem’s wanted Bush to fail period. Barry wants America to fail period. Bush wanted democracy and peace to have a chance (to paraphrase John Lennon) in the middle east and he made a down payment in that direction.
I agree with #3 Peter that I am not optimistic especially when our current Fearless Reader wants to disengage when this kind of effort would require continuing support and effort for at least a couple generations to bear fruit. This is a long time. Bush said it would be a long time but unfortunately did not specify. Americans don’t have a long attention span, even for marriage. But the geo-political/economic consequences of this gamble will affect future generations.
Simply pulling out according to a political timeline is like Clinton withdrawing from Somalia because we didn’t like the cost involved. It totally wastes the investments made to that point. And at this point would make the 4,500 American lives and other allied lives an investment that will not see fruit. Unlike, #2 Peggy (and I do thank her and her husband for their service) I don’t believe that the smiles will remain in the memories for long after the atrocities to be visited on them by Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
The worst part is that they, AQ and Taliban are kin to Our Dear Leader, they are freedom fighters of the world, the oppressed, the poor, fighting against American imperialism and we should apologize more and eventually suffer and pay for our sins. To bad Barry doesn’t learn that these people never build anything, just destroy and kill. That is Islam today.