The Most Endangered Senate Seats in 2012
The 2010 election campaign is over, but 2012 is nearly upon us. Within weeks, we will know the candidates for president, and within months, preparations will begin for the 2012 Senate races. Which Senate seats are likely to be in play? Some of this will depend on how the next Congress shakes out, as well as what retirements occur, but several senators are already in danger.
Republican in danger of general election loss:
Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) shocked the political world by winning the election to replace Ted Kennedy. He immediately became the most vulnerable incumbent up for re-election in 2012. Brown has not pleased conservatives with his votes for bills like the financial reform package, but he may convince voters he’s been the independent voice he promised he’d be when they elected him to the Senate. He is strong on fund-raising, with $6 million on hand. However, Democrats have a wide array of potential candidates to hurl at Brown.
Republicans in danger of a primary or convention defeat:
Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) has served six terms and is at risk of a Tea Party challenge. Senator Lugar has made a career of being praised by Democrats, notably President Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign. Lugar could face a strong challenge from Representative-elect Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), who finished second to Senator Dan Coats in the Republican Senate primary.
Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) also has served six terms and is also at risk of a Tea Party challenge. He does have an 89% career ACU rating, which makes him far more conservative than Lugar. However, the anti-establishment undercurrent in Utah led to the ouster of Senator Bob Bennett at the state Republican Party convention last summer. That said, Hatch has done less to rile conservatives than Bennett or Lugar. He will likely hang on to his seat unless he is opposed by rising star Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT).
Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) faces major discontent from Republicans after backing President Obama’s stimulus and supporting the Senate Finance Committee’s health care bill. A Public Policy Polling survey in September showed 63% of Maine Republicans wanted to dump Snowe, but no apparent challengers have the gravitas to win the general election. After Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christie O’Donnell’s loss, the hunger for an “anybody but Snowe” campaign may dampen.
Senator John Ensign (R-NV) has to be considered severely endangered due to a scandal surrounding an extramarital affair. Unlike the prostitution scandal involving re-elected Senator David Vitter (R-LA), Ensign’s scandal may not be easily dismissed due to the payment of $96,000 that many allege to be hush money. Nevada Republicans showed their distaste for politicians with soap opera-like family lives when they tossed out Governor Jim Gibbons (R-NV) in the Republican primary this year. Ensign is likewise vulnerable to a defeat in the primary. If he somehow makes it past the Republican primary, he’ll become a top Democratic target in the fall.
Democrats in danger of general election defeat:
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has to be considered vulnerable after the Republican wave swept the GOP into the governor’s mansion. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), as a member of the House leadership, could raise serious funds to challenge the two-term Democrat.
A poll conducted for the Daily Kos in August showed Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) with a 40% approval rating. Not great numbers for a senator running for re-election in a swing state full of strong candidates, such as former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Representative Todd Akin (R-MO).
Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) narrowly defeated former Senator Conrad Burns with 49% in 2006. While Barack Obama made Montana close with three campaign stops in 2008, the state went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004, and that may make Tester’s ObamaCare vote a big issue. The state mood may be shifting against Democrats, as Republicans captured the state House. Six-term Congressman Denny Rehberg (R-MT) has been discussed as a potential challenger.
This may be a long shot, but in my state, New Jersey, we have two horrific Democratic Senators. The first, Robert Menendez, is a true socialist and hasn’t yet met a spending bill his doesn’t like. He obviously voted for Obamacare, the stimulus, and all of the other bailouts and major spending bills, towing the Democratic line. Our other Democratic Senator, Frank Lautenberg is about 85 and is literally half dead with stomach cancer. He is so invisible here in New Jersey, most people in this state don’t even know that he’s still alive, let alone that he represents the state.
With the election of Republican Chris Christie to Governor, I hope that the Republicans can manage to put up some credible candidates against these clowns. The state may be going more conservative, but the Democratic machine is very, very, strong here in New Jersey, as is the massive union vote (which has always been controlled by the Democrats). If we band together, we may be able to eventually throw these bums out, men who specialize in pork, spending, and the massive increase in size of the Federal Government. If the Ted Kennedy seat can go to a Republican in Massachusetts, anything is possible.
Hail, hail Libertyship, co-resident of NJ.
It really is an uphill battle in this state. Both current occupants are thoroughly distasteful if for no other reason than their liberal/progressive/socialist approach to any problem within the State or nationwide. I have written to these two characters numerous times on the issues of the moment ranging from immigration and health care, to earmarks and the budget. All to no avail save the usual boiler plate response. I just can’t see it changing.
very good point on the Laut, who shouldnt even be in office to start with. Shows that some people have no idea what or who they are voting for. Anyone asscoaited with Gov Christie who might want to try for the Lauts seat?
Lautencorpse only has the office because the last guy Torricelli, caught in the midst of corruption during his campaign, was ‘replaced’ by Lautenberg right before election day, a highly unconventional (read ‘probably illegal’) circumvention of standard campaign practice.
Corpsenberg had already retired at age 78 or whatever… and was already sick… they brought him back because he had name ID and they were caught flatfooted by the Torricelli corruption, not the crimes but the public reveal of them..
of course they KNOW about all the corruption, it’s mostly their idea..
I would have bet everything that Corpsenberg would not have survived until his next election.. he still might not… but if dead guys can vote, dead candidates can serve, right? It’s the democrat way.
Jeb! is every bit as worthless as his old man and his brother. If THAT is the sewage the GOP intends to nominate for the Senate seat, I will vote AGAINST. Not that it’s likely to matter very much with the upcoming civil war.
Mark, in case you hadn’t noticed there is a civil war in progress. The insurgents’ weapon of choice is the ballet, and I didn’t misspell bullet.
“The insurgents’ weapon of choice is the ballet, and I didn’t misspell bullet.”
But I hope you misspelled BALLOT. I’d hate to think that we would have to fight the Left pirouetting in tutus!
Endangered Senate Seats?
What difference does it make? Already several newly elected Representatives are making overtures to co-opt with other Republicans as well as democrats. Nothing is going to change in the long run. The newly elected have already forgotten how they got there. Coats, Issa, to name 2. The Congress of today feel that they have to pass a different law everyday. What we need is to go back when the first congress was established and met once a year.
Believe me, nothing is going to change.
What about Lindsey Grahamesty? He is definitely a RINO that must go. He is the one that thought of the so-called “Gang of 14″ This and other policies that he advocates are Democrat-lite. We need him in the Senate like we need a hole in the head. The sooner he is gone, the better off the country will be.
What about Lindsey Grahamesty?
I’d have to say he’s the most endangered senator in America.
Gramn up in ’14
Stan-Gram nasty, unfortuantely got re-elected in 2008, so hes not up until 2014. Believe me, he WILL be a conservative target then.
There is a reason the GOP has an elephant for a mascot. SC will remember what Graham has done for six years and I predict there will be a strong primary challange in 14.
For a million reasons Lindsay must go. We need two parties in our system to give Americans choices. Otherwise it is socialist and globalist via a police state all the way.
Ben Nelson was on Omaha radio this morning. In the past his interviews have been informative conversations, but this morning he was a party hack advancing pre-planned talking points. I think he’s very vulnerable if the GOP finds a good candidate.
Observations on 2 races. First of all, Jeb Bush is the best candidate out there. He was a very successful governor in Florida and the voters in Florida still hold him in high regard. If he decides to run, he will win going away. The Democrats and their lapdogs in the media will try to go after him with everything in their arsenal, especially the hangover from his brother, GWB. But, lest we forget, GWB is undergoing a transition from one of the most unpopular presidents in recent memory to being able to win in a race against Obama if the race were run today.
Lindsey Graham? Unfortunately, he is my senator and unless someone comes along who can unseat him, we will send him back to Washington in 2012. Democrats won’t have a serious candidate and the only hope is a strong contender upset him in the primaries. Just don’t see it happening.
Graham? Seriously? I live across the country but Graham is universally considered a RINO ripe for the picking. And it’s not that South Carolinians don’t have a fine example of what a conservative U.S. Senator should be, given that the outstanding Jim DeMint was just overwhelmingly re-elected. Many claim conservatism, DeMint embodies it.
I’ll happily give Jeb an A+ for fiscal conservatism. As governor he vetoed billions in pork, much of it pushed through by Republican legislators. Unfortunately, he’s just as much an open-borders multi-culti as W (perhaps even more so, as he’s married to a Mexican). The last thing we need in the Senate is another McCain-Obama-Graham type who never met an illegal alien he didn’t like.
I hope you are wrong about Jeb Bush. His father and brother both were statists. A RINO statist is just as bad as a Democrat.
Maybe a special election to recall Rand Paul, who9 now says he will fight for earmarks for Kentucky. Yeah, you people sure now how to pick em. I think maybe it’s time to wind up some of that strategic indignation you favor. Manufacture some outrage. Really “hold him to task . . . to account . . . his feet to the fire . . . he’s on probation . . . he will do the people’s bidding . . . he works for YOU . . .
Go ahead, I’ll wait . . .
You might want to consider throwing some Zen-Karma on the Democrats, they seem in greater need at this point in time. If they maintain their Obama-Reid-Pelosi suicide pact Rand Paul is of no consequence.
Wait is over.
Born Senseless refutes itself, again and again.
Your Sensei
“You see, when you start to assign motives to people, you can’t prove anything.”
November 8, 2010 – 7:16 am
Mary Landreu(D-Louisiana) sold out Louisiana and her Obamacare vote for $500mil. A Dem. that has gotten Repuplican votes will see no more.
It is only too unfortunate that our fellow Louisianans didn’t see the brilliance and qualities of John Kennedy in the last attempt to get rid of Mary Landrieu. I will admit that Kennedy isn’t exactly “Mr. Personality” at campaigning, but he is extremely qualified for the job.
Landrieu will get re-elected. Louisiana is full of “poor victims”. Plus, she is pretty, just like Gillibrand of NY. People vote for pretty. It’s just the way it is.
Hopefully, I am wrong.
Kay Bailey Hutchinson needs to go in Texas. She should retire or Michael Williams should give her a primary challenge.
Willaims is just another R rino so he won’t get my vote. I certainly would not miss Hutchinson or Cornyn, got tired of writing him about illegals and getting his whine about taking care of them and can’t just dump them.
Those that really want to deal with illegals will be the ones willing to turn ICE loose on them and their employers. That is how you get them to go home.
Williams also brings the ineptness that seems to haunt the black elected officials so why go there.
All Cross the Aisle Republicans That Comprimise The U.S. Constitution,Rule Of Law,The Declaration”For”Independence,And The Bill Of Rights.In Exchange For Pork,And Earmarks,For their districts.Who believe the rights of the selfish,Addicted,Obsessed,Lazy,UnInformed,Lawless,Irresponsible,And Destructive.Should be rewarded.While The Productive,Responsible,Law Abiding,Self-Reliant,And Self-Sacrificial,Are Punished,And To Quote Barack Insane Obama,Told The American Taxpayer To Get In the Backseat.So these society Misfits,Deadbeats,And Predatoroial Blood Suckers,Can Drive America Over A Cliff.Just like Lemmings.Reward the Taxpayer,Not The Tax Cheat.Please Some one explain to me,Why In Hell,Is John”VIET CONG”Kerry’s Punk Errand Boy;Lindsey Grahmnesty Still In Congress?Jimmy Joe/”The Liarfryer”
Roll on crimson tide .
2012 is still a long way off, and it’s all going to come down to how well the 112th Congress performs. If they screw us again, they’re out. If not, then we’ll see who gets re-elected and who doesn’t.
Hawaii Senator Daniel Akaka will be 88 years old on election day 2012, if he lasts that long. The newly-reelected Senator Daniel Inouye is the same age; he is now age 86. Regrettably, Hawaii just replaced Republican Governor Linda Lingle with socialist Neil Abercrombie (a University of Hawaii classmate and a close pal of Barack Hussein Obama, Sr.). Should Inouye or Akaka die in office, Abercrombie will no doubt appoint a successor who is even more to the political left.
The Hawaiian GOP needs to find two strong candidates: one to face Akaka in 2012 and one for the eventual special election to fill Inouye’s term of office (assuming he does not live to age 92 and finish his full).
Read The Obama Timeline to learn how we got into this mess, and for more information about the Abercrombie-Obama connections. (Abercrombie is a very strange person.)
Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) won’t even commit to running for re-election after the 2010 bloodbath. Three Dem Congressmen were tossed out of Virginia, and a fourth held on by 500 votes or less.
Webb has tried to portray himself as a “moderate”, but voted with Obama and Reid on the biggies. I will at least give him credit for being able to read the writing on the wall. He either turns deep blue and starts barking, or he is toast.
In a recent interview, he laments the take-over of the Dem party by “progressives” (socialists), and admits that he can’t get onboard with that direction. I’ll give him credit for not signing on to the Marxist freight train of the current party, but the damage has already been done. He might as well retire now. He doesn’t support the socialist “progressives”, but he already has. “Bloodbath II – The Sequel” will take him out if he is foolish enough to run for re-election. I’ll guess that he is pragmatic enough to quit while he’s ahead. Good choice.
Webb will wait and see if the Tea Party is here to stay or if it spent itself on the 2010 election. The main thing is to start identifying him now as an Obama supporter and push him hard.
“I’ll give him credit for not signing on to the Marxist freight train of the current party…”
Well, he doesn’t talk like a Marxist. Too bad he has voted with them like a good little toady.
Take Obamacare. At least some so-called ‘moderates’ put up a little resistance and had to be arm-twisted and bribed. Not Webb, whose vote was automatic, and whose response to constituents’ letters was nothing but a series of kneejerk, left-wing blather.
It is a sad state of affairs that today we call a Democrat “moderate” simply because he doesn’t loathe the US military.
It is time for the dinosaurs to go.
I don’t care if they were the greatest statesmen of all time — it is time to go!
Lugar, Hatch — your time has expired. The offices you hold are not your personal property. Please leave now.
Thank you for your service. Now go.
I smell a Ross Perot’ing the future! And I have smelt it coming for a long long time. There is a uneasy kinda restless feeling in the air. You know that electric feeling right before lightning strikes.
I think its because the “Liber-TEA-rian” interpretation of what Republicanism is (and what it should never be) is the only interpretation that can be tolerated. That is if you don’t want to be called a RINO! Or worse.
The Republicans are not perfect. Some are downright stupid. I am the first to admit that, but to try to destroy them from within? To turn them into Whigs? To deliberately target Republican Senators for character assasination? That ain’t going to happen much longer. THAT IS WHAT LIBERALS DO!!
Whats really funny is that the accusers (Tea-Tarians) are actually the REAL RINOS because they are not Republicans. They are Libertarians and Ross Perot-viacks. Its like they think they own the Republican Party and they can do anything they like.
Yep its time to fight this battle. The ownership of the Republican Party is at stake and I don’t like the idea of it being taken over by RINO-tarians and Anarchists.
Enough is enough. The Tea People have gotten way too big for their britches. Its time to teach them a painful well deserved lesson. Lets Ross Perot them into nothingness.
You are right about one thing – I am a conservative first and then a Republican. Right now there are only two parties in the United States, the establishment and the people. If the Republican want to be Democratic-lite then they do not present a viable alternative. The people wanted limited government, free markets, lower taxes, and respect for their conservative values. Any Republican who compromises on those issues can go to blazes for all I care.
Perhaps you are the type who would lick the boots of the establishment – Republican or Democrat – when they ignore the will of the people. I and a majority of others will not.
You have posted this same opinion in many of the threads lately. It is time to challenge you on it.
The Tea Partiers are NOT Libertarians. In case you did not notice, the Libertarians allowed 2 House races to go to the Dems, MO-1 and IN-2. Tea Partiers support a strong national defense and foreign policy, unlike Libertarians.
Many Tea Partiers are Disaffected Pubs and Dems, as well as various Indies. What they have in common is a desire for commonsense, decent, responsible government. You are confusing their strong federalism with Libertarianism.
I think the problem is, I don’t think the word Republican means what you think it means. That, or you are a fake, a plant, stirring up dissension in the GOP ranks.
I suspect you are the real thing, though… a RINO. These “moderate” Republicans had taken over the Party, and they do not wish to let go of their power. Well, it is the Conservative’s turn to be in charge, because the “Moderates” messed up very, very badly. Very, very, very badly.
To borrow from The One, I don’t mind cleaning up after you…
You simply have no leg to stand on for your argument. After all, Carpenter, what exactly is the alternative to the Tea Partiers being in the Republican Party? More “moderate” control of things? Because that worked out so well every time we’ve tried it. Nixon, Ford, Bush 41, Bush 43. Oh, joy. Oh, Rapture. And the Tea Party should become an official party, rather than try to reform the Republican Party? I’m sure that would work out well, too.
… but you shouldn’t oughta do a lot of talking.
You missed an Endangered Democrat seat in 2012, either way — i.e., whether he retires (as he often has discussed in past) or not:
Herb Kohl.
Why? See what happened to Russ Feingold, also of Wisconsin. . . .