The Lessons of NY-26
And the end came, not with a bang, but with a whimper. The special election in Western New York’s 26th congressional district to replace the insufficiently clad Chris “Craigslist” Lee should, by all rights, have been a lackluster affair of little note in a backwater area south of Buffalo. After all, the 26th hasn’t elected enough Democrats since the Civil War to field a baseball team. What we wound up with, to invoke the spirits of Laurel and Hardy, was a fine mess indeed.
First, due to the eccentricities of the Empire State’s arcane election laws, there would be no primary. The county chairs for each party would assemble and apply their infinite wisdom to the task of appointing candidates. (Savvy readers will recall that this is the same tried and true system which produced the Dede Scozzafava vs. Doug Hoffman kerfuffle a few years back.) Adding sauce for the goose, New York’s rather unique fusion style ballot system assures ballot lines for any third party who manages to wrangle 50,000 votes in each gubernatorial election, as well as easy access to anyone else that wishes to create their own “party” and can send out enough flunkies with petitions over a few weekends.
This delicate political machinery produced Jane Corwin for the GOP and Kathy Hochul for the Democrats. Jane was a fine enough candidate by most New York standards, but her flirtations with pro-choice positions immediately set off sparks with some of the more conservative voters who were looking at other options along with the New York State Conservative Party (CP). In the end, though, the CP got on board and endorsed Corwin as well. Hochul, meanwhile, was virtually unopposed among the ranks of the Democrats and also nabbed the endorsement of the Working Families Party (WFP).
But these two ladies were not the only ones showing up to the dance. First, the Green Party attracted the candidacy of Ian Murphy, previously known only for prank calling Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Mr. Murphy was apparently attempting to extend his fifteen minutes of YouTube fame before resigning himself to a career of hoping for guest spots on TruTV’s World’s Dumbest series. But he wasn’t the only spoiler.
Enter Jack Davis, multimillionaire and perennial congressional candidate. Mr. Davis landed himself a spot on the “Tea Party” candidate line, which came as quite the surprise to the only organized, active Tea Party group in the area, as they endorsed Ms. Corwin on April 13th. They had never even considered Davis. The moniker was even more unexpected considering that Jack had run as a Democrat in three consecutive elections and had even been previously endorsed by the aforementioned Working Families Party. (For those not familiar, the WFP is the safe haven for New Yorkers who find the Democrats to be not quite liberal or socialist enough.)
Sparing you the pain of watching the ensuing battle unfold from the cheap seats along with other New York politicos, this brings us to Tuesday’s election. While Team Corwin had filed an injunction against declaring a winner in anticipation of a close race, the dust settled much faster than expected. The final tally showed Hochul with a 47-43 margin of victory and Corwin delivered her concession speech before 11:00 pm.
So what should we take away from this sad tale? Liberals were quick to jump on the theme that this spelled the death of entitlement reform and the Republican revolution, based on the fact that Hochul had run her campaign primarily not against Jane Corwin, but Paul Ryan. But the picture was obviously far cloudier than that.
Turnout for this race was dismal by any standard, coming in at barely 101,000 votes cast. Races with that small of a sample are notoriously finicky, and it’s difficult to draw conclusions. Plus, there was the Davis effect. It played out far differently than I had originally anticipated, but it was still a significant factor. Davis was pulling 23% of the vote in mid-April according to Siena polling, but when his support began to crater, his followers broke to the Democrat by a nearly 5:1 margin. However, he retained a base of 9% in the end, and if those voters had been more likely to lean toward Corwin she could have still pulled out a victory.
This does not mean, however, that Republicans aren’t whistling past the graveyard to a certain extent if they try to pass off this loss as a third party aberration. What we saw in NY-26 is, without a doubt, a preview of the playbook which Democrats will be running in 2012. While the rest of the nation focuses on jobs and the national debt, for the first time, Siena found that the highest ranked priority among likely voters the week before the election was Medicare. Corwin herself sheepishly admitted last week that she had let the entitlement horse get too far out of the barn before she responded to Hochul’s attacks on that front.
Voter education on fixing entitlement programs before we go over the cliff is always going to be a challenge, and this race should serve as a stern warning. It’s an easy sell for Democrats on an extremely complicated issue, and any Republican embracing the Ryan plan for 2012 should be taking notes from Corwin’s experience when framing their messaging strategy for next year.
So, do the results of this special election contain portents for the future? Without a doubt they do. But it’s not as simple as either side would have you believe. This was a noteworthy event and those who don’t learn from Corwin’s mistakes may be doomed to repeat them next year.
Tea Party supporters should be ready to support their candidates and go on the attack. Make it clear dems are willing to pile on debt and sacrifice our childrens’ futures. I think that message will resonate with young voters and independents.
You guys just don’t get it do you? That’s fine, hang on to the Titanic as it goes down. What is astonishing is that the GOP seems to be doubling down on their Medicare destroying message. THe lipstick on the pig didn’t work, so their just trying a new idea called “premium support” or better understood as “Coupon Care.”
The fascist teabaggers just can’t understand how the American people who want Medicare and social security can’t vote for people who want to destroy those programs and give massive tax cuts to the wealthy? People would have maybe supported the Ryan plan more if he truely wanted to help the majority of Americans instead of the few. The CBO didn’t help by letting people know that it could cost them $6000 + out of pocket at the same time. Damn, that nonpartisan CBO why’d they have to show that! Seniors aren’t stupid.
Instead we got this “premium support” garbage. And now we’re to stupid to understand how things work. The republicans in NY 26th outnumber the dems by 30,000 and now they are stupid? Quit your crying and realize that you lost this and wasted our time. Come up with a plan that will reduce the budget and save these programs. Obama and many democrats have said that some reform needs to happen let’s start there. How about the GOP in the house pass a bill that allows people to buy healthcare across state lines? What happened to that simple promise? Why didn’t they send that to the senate? But they sure can send abortion bills.
Oh, and that the Ryan plan would not impact those over 55 is actually the WORST part of his plan! The GOP and Ryan thought they were clever by limiting their plan to voucherize and destroy Medicare to those 55 and under. Those over 55 would get the current system. They figured this lessen the blow, since those under 55 would not be so personally vested since retirement is a ways away.
What the GOP didn’t plan for is the fact that todays seniors were furious that the GOP was essentially screwing their children and grandchildren by relegating them to an inferior system that would amount to chump change and an early death. Todays seniors do care about their children and grandchildren and what they are leaving them, which is why they want them to have the same quality Medicare that they have. Got that GOP?”
Actually Komrade, the problem with the GOP is that they refuse to admit that Medicare is a disaster and take it off of life support. The country was better off before it, and will be better off after it is gone.
Skimming through the rest of your socialist drivel, I see the obligatory reference to fascism, a prime example of which sits in the White House today (well, not actually today since he’s on vacation in Britain, again). Government strong arming the auto, medical and banking industries, is classic fascism. Calling for a “civilian” security force as well funded and well armed as the military, is right out of the fascist handbook. Never mind the spectre of a politician droning out a speech before Greco-Roman columns in a German sports arena.
And I see you don’t like “corporate welfare,” I’m sure the CEO of GE and BP who are regular bed partners with your messiah will loose a lot of sleep over that!
So this playbook is going to work in Ohio? South Carolina? Maybe Colorado, but you know I don’t think so. 10% unemployment over a period of years should get a President un-elected. What we gotta do is have a better alternative. Not a perfect alternative.
Since WWII there have been perpetuated 4 generations of entitlement co-dependents. Each generation has built on domestic peace, prosperity, and gaming the system. Having a reinforced work ethic to survive has been corroded as surely as instant predigest information has diminished attention spans, and processed superabundant food has led to an obesity epidemic.
Attacking the entitlement system to wean off that addiction would be harder than to wean off TV, oil, and electronic games. “Something for nothing and the chick are free” becomes anthem for those who trade easiness for the payments of self reliance. To me, this socialism is the road to slavery.
That this candidate won by dissing the Ryan plan and literally supporting the public welfare speaks ill of the constituancy. Throwing granny off the cliff is fear mongering which worked, and damn the debt bomb. A real great depression might just have to be the cure for the voters’ malaise.
The lesson I see coming out of this election points to the fact that all too often, Republican candidates for public office simply do not go out there & articulate the conservative platform too well at all. I have yet to fully understand just what the hell is up with that. It’s frustrating to see liberals outperforming conservatives on the campaign trail consistently.
Bobbcat, you’re exactly right. Republicans and conservatives have a major messaging problem. Sadly, conservative candidates can scream our vision until they’re blue in the face, but the MSM will NEVER EVER NEVER let that genie out of the bottle. Our ‘gatekeepers’ know it’s a winner and that’s all folks for them.
The MSM controls the information stream for the most part. I mean, yeah, internet and grass roots are great, but it backfired and snookered just enough sheeple in NY-26 to flip this thing.
Wish I had the answer. Fortunately, I think the fact that things just don’t feel right in the country right now may be enough to snatch a WH win in 2012. I don’t think we can write off the earth-shaking 2010 election as fast as the MSM would like us to.
I actually hope we *don’t* win the White House in 2012 because I believe the economy is going to go off a cliff during that presidential term, and the party in power (according to the average voter, which means the party holding the White House) is going to be blamed. So I hope the Democrats have it. As John T. Reed puts it, “The federal government is borrowing and spending for a fall. It’s like a game of musical chairs. Only in this one, the part sitting in power when the bond market music stops loses. If, as I expect, the public is not ready for fiscal responsibility, let the Democrats keep control of the Congress. Federal spending is a runaway train. Let it fly the Democrat flag as it runs off a cliff if the American people will not support a fiscally responsible Republican Party.”
The fact that the MSM does fight to support the leftist side of the political spectrum should serve as a huge reason for Pub candidates to focus on their communication skills and utilize live facetime with constituents to exercise those skills. But alas, they do not. As stated below ISMW by another poster, it is generally not in the nature of the average conservative to be “slick” & dodge around the truth.
Republicans are generally, by thought and action, Managers and Administrators. Literally, Larry the Cable Guy’s “Get ‘er done.” They are not, by nature, charismatic.
Democrats are sham Populists and accomplished Rabble-Rousers. They are slick and glib, the modern day equivalents to Snake Oil Salesmen.
It get’s worse: Republicans are far more likely to tell you the actual truth of matters, whether you like it or not. Democrats will lie like a rug to work us Rubes.
And people SO like to hear pleasing lies as opposed to the blunt truth.
‘ The government that robs Peter to pay Paul ca always depend on the support of Paul.’ – George Bernard Shaw.
As usual, the GOP candidate failed to expose the Dems lies. The Dems sold themselves to senior citizen voters as the true supporters of medicare, while charging the Ryan budget with killing medicare. The truth, which the Republicans failed to get out, is that the Ryan budget saves medicare for all of today’s seniors, while keeping it on a sound basis (via vouchers) for today’s young people. The Dems plan (written into the Dems Health Care law) is to make ALL medicare patients, INCLUDING TODAY’S SENIORS!!!, subject to a presidentially appointed Death Panel, which would determine which treatments are authorized for which medicare patients. The senior citizen vote went to the Dems, big time! The seniors voted for their own executions!!! The Republicans, as usual, never pointed this out.
The Democrats created Medicare, so it doesn’t take a genius to conclude that they are the party with an interest in preserving Medicare. In 1965 Medicare passed with very few Republican votes. The Republicans hated Medicare then and they hate Medicare now. Anyone who believes that they don’t want to destroy a program that they have always hated is an idiot.
The Ryan plan to voucherize Medicare is a plan that destroys Medicare. The residents in NY 26 understood this, it’s unfortunate that you don’t.
And thus began the upward momentum of healthcare costs. Predictably, when the government gets involved things turn to shi*. Then the government tries to fix it and the shi* simply spreads. Before government meddling healthcare costs mirrored the consumer price index. Once Medicare came into being the curves separated, then Teddy the Commie and his crew came up with the PPOs and the curve skyrocketed.
Putting more bureaucrats between the patient and the doctor bogged down the whole system, imagine that!
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/09/understanding_the_cause_of_hea.html
The problem in this race was not a flawed republican candidate, the lack of a clear republican message and/or the presence of the ‘tea party’ candidate (previously a democrat); the problem is the republican candidate touched the third rail. What a stupid thing to do!
What a stupid thing to SAY! The American people had better get used to living in something besides a fact-free zone and pointing out that Medicare MUST
The incompetence of the GOP is such that it is making this grown man cry like a Speaker of the House. The DP dominates the message and they can give it one shape today and another tomorrow. Like if GOP was lacking clowns and incompetent fools when they appear on TV they are the Arnolds, the Newts, the Donalds.
Wake up for Pete’s sake! We need short and long term goals, we need to implement a communications machine that can deliver the truth, we need focus, we need effective means to neutralize the Media-Academia-Bureaucracy axis of evil.
Recently I was involved in supporting a rather prominent Conservative group and I cannot believe the ineptitude. Of course they lost their cause. The sad part is that they did not even notice that they did not stand a chance before they got into the fight.
This kind of incompetence may one day cost us our country, out future. Conservatism is the last line of defense of civilization and our leaders seem to be out to lunch.
None of the conclusions here are correct, not the articles, nor those of the few commenters.
The Republican lost because it is the Stupid Party. In NY, you are allowed to register as the candidate for more than one party. So, Corwyn, should have gotten the Tea Party on board, as well as the Constitution Party, then should also have registered as the Tea Party and Conservative Party candidate. This would have clarified things for the masses.
Furthermore, Corwyn was not a great candidate. This is the result of a Party appointing someone. Regardless of election law, they could have held their own private primary, so people could have a voice, rather than being force-fed a candidate. Lefties do not mind having appointed candidates. Righties HATE it! They are not going to get behind a candidate who has not gone through a process of review by the citizenry. If Corwyn had won in such a process, however attenuated the process might have been, then there would have been more support and higher turnout.
Make no mistake, the Dems are going to turn out more in 2012, because of the spanking they received in 2010. You have to get the Right to turn out as well.
The Dem’s win had nothing to do with messaging. It was just the Stupid Party still being so clueless and out-of-touch. They still think in terms of Party, not principles. They embrace the traditional way of doing things, a way that has mostly seen them in the minority. So, they lost again. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Personally, I looked at the races, and could not support anyone. Being in WA, I was not going to contribute to that rotten system nor to its candidate. I did track it, though. It was entirely predictable.
Hopefully, the Dems are also learning the wrong lesson. I hope they copy this messaging. It will backfire, as long as the Right decides to take on that fight, and does not roll over and wet on itself.
Marc, the republicans are already wetting themselves.
Furthermore, Corwyn was not a great candidate. This is the result of a Party appointing someone. Regardless of election law, they could have held their own private primary, so people could have a voice, rather than being force-fed a candidate.
Marc, yes, true, but this is part and parcel of what I’d meant by “not charismatic.” It’s an old-time tendency in that mainstream Republican nominees that they are they are mostly chosen by their longevity and seniority, not their ability to appeal to the masses.
Hell, that’s how they ended up with McCain as the pick. He was the “old guy, next up to the plate.”
Argh. Lysdexia of the fingers tonight; pardon the grammatical errors.
Allston:
I believe your conclusion is incorrect. John McCain was not nominated because it was his turn. John McCain was appointed to be the nominee of the Republican Party by the Main Stream Media, big mouth leftists like Chris Matthews, Keith Olberman and their ilk, Dave Letterman, Jay Leno and aided and abetted by the Fox News channel. It was a candidacy of a wannabee clown, designed by idiots, to allow Barack Obama to become President of the United States. And it worked to a T.
The Tea Parties made some very poor choices in the last election. They must acknowledge that if these choices result in a Democrat win, we will be stuck with 4 more years of the same or even worse government. Their belief that their candidate is better than someone who may have voted for more liberal causes in the past is very narrow sighted.
The Republican establishment made some very poor choices in the last two dozen elections. They must acknowledge that if these choices result in a theftist win, we will be stuck with four more decades of the same or even worse government. Its belief that its candidates are better than someone who may have not gotten invitations to the correct cocktail parties in the past is very narrow sighted.
News flash ::: people want free stuff !!
Greece, here we come.
Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies,
And gimme more
That free stuff you can’t deny
We just want moah!
The old physicians warning about syphilis: “A night with Venus, a lifetime with Mercury”
If we don’t rebuild civic virtue QUICK “the masses” will vote themselves cake until the ensuing chaos stops them.
“If we don’t rebuild civic virtue…”
Damned Skippy. Not for nothing was there the great de-emphasis of Civics as a required course in High School (mid-late 70s, as I recollect it – being in HS at that time). An uninformed populace is just so much easier to play games with.
Medicare isn’t “free stuff.” People work and pay into it their whole lives. It is there for them when they retire. It is a successful program. In many ways Medicare is a victim of its own success. Seniors are living longer, healthier, and happier lives than ever before. We need to strengthen the program not dump grandma off a cliff. That’s un-American, not to mention immoral.
Damned right it isn’t free. It is a tremendous burden on the country and increases the cost of health care for everyone. Somebody has to pay all of those government bureaucrats and the clerical help the doctors need to feed the endless trail of paperwork to the aforementioned government bureaucrats.
It is yet another demo-socialist Ponzi scheme that needs to be terminated before the US becomes another Spain.
Time for a new message.
Medicare is popular with old people, people who are planning to get old, and people who know someone close who is old. Ryan’s voucher plan asks seniors to reward low cost medical providers. Seniors don’t believe that is their job.
The TP/libertarian message of “rich people should have even more money” hardly resonates when the rest of America feels that it is unfair for the richest 1% to receive 25% of national income and own 40% of the country’s wealth. Especially when much of that wealth comes from corporate welfare and gaming the system. Why should Warren Buffett pay a smaller percentage of tax on his income than his secretary?
You don’t understand how the conservative mind works. Corporate welfare = good business. Helping a mom feed her kids is SOCIALISM!
The fact is Republicans are all for Socialism. They are all for welfare. The simple difference between Republicans and Democrats is the group of people that the socialism and welfare is directed to.
This is ridiculous. “It’s not fair!” What are you… 4 years old?
Almost every single one of those richest 1% are self-made. They EARNED it. And you say it’s not fair? I think it is unfair for folks who have not earned it to demand of those who have. My property (money is property) does not belong to you, and yours does not belong to me.
And those top 1% may have 40% of the wealth, but they also pay 40% of the taxes. What’s the problem?
If you work in the private sector, you work for a rich man, not a poor one, because a poor man cannot pay you. Thank God for these guys who create the wealth, because without them, you wouldn’t have a job!
As for corporate welfare, Conservatives are NOT big on that! That’s the big government Republicans and bigger-government Dems. The Wall Street guys gave to Dems three times as mush as to Repubs. (comment directed to the guy who posted previous reply)
Marc –
Don’t you get it?
We, as a country, are not PRODUCING enough people (taxpayers). I guess this explains why so many Republicans are so adamantly opposed to abortions – abortions result in decreased people PRODUCTION. Republicans also don’t want immigrants from other countries entering this country. If we are not going to produce enough people and not let others in, then we must spend enormous sums of taxpayers dollars extending the lifespan of those people we have produced. This is the sole purpose of Medicare (and – but don’t tell anyone – to increase corporate earnings for Big Pharma).
Never mind the fact that many seniors are unproductive people. Never mind the fact that the amount they paid into Medicare over their lifespans is insignificant compared to what it will cost younger taxpayers to treat their lifestyle induced medical disorders, such as lung cancer treatment for smokers, or treatment for heart disease, diabetes, replacement joints, and cancer for FAT people. The ENTIRE country is suffering from a narcissistic sense of entitlement. They think they will LIVE FOREVER. They will not. But try convincing them of that cold, harsh reality.
Republicans lost this election because they claim to be the pro-life party, but – in the minds of those voters who think they will life forever – the Republicans were viewed as abandoning their pro-life mantra by voting to gut Medicare. Perhaps Republicans should try running on this alternative – let’s OUTSOURCE all our old, sick, people to third world countries where they can receive far less expensive (and in my opinion – more humane) medical treatment and long term care.
The lesson being given every single year in New York and never properly learned by Republicans is the fact that New York is inhabited by huge number of old immigrants (and their descendants) from the former Soviet Union whose imperishable love for alms (dispensed by the nanny state, which is called the Social Welfare System) is steadily heated up by Communism-nostalgic Russian newspapers, such as “Vecherny New York” (“Evening New York”) and the likes.
98% of them are always voting for radical Dems, including the Radical-in-Chief in the White House nowadays.
Oh you nuts never fail me. I come here for my daily chuckle and am never disappointed. To speak the truth here is like casting pearls before swine