The Job Market: Far Worse Than It Appears
The familiar items in the government’s Employment Situation Summary on Friday were bad enough:
- The unemployment rate increased for the second straight month, this time to a seasonally adjusted 9.1%.
- The seasonally adjusted number of workers employed increased by only 54,000. After taking prior-month downward revisions into account, only 15,000 more Americans were working in May than were working in April.
Both numbers were “unexpectedly” poor, even after prognosticators had two days’ warning to downwardly adjust their estimates courtesy of payroll giant ADP, whose employment report on Wednesday showed only 38,000 seasonally adjusted private-sector jobs added.
If you think that’s bad, wait until you see the real numbers.
What? Yes, I’m redundantly telling you that the numbers routinely reported out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) do not represent what actually happened in any given month, because they, as already noted, are seasonally adjusted.
To be clear, I’m not accusing BLS of cooking the books, and there’s nothing wrong with seasonally adjusting data. Doing so is a time-honored statistical technique for smoothing out information which fluctuates throughout the year. From all appearances, the methodology BLS uses to generate its seasonally adjusted data is statistically valid and has been consistently applied. In my view, despite the limited value of seasonally adjusted data in the current economic environment, I don’t want the bunch currently in the White House to get anywhere near the idea of revising how things are done (and no, I don’t believe they’ve had a chance to corrupt the process yet, though it could be a second-term agenda item).
In normal times, it’s usually acceptable for data users to stick with seasonally adjusted (SA) information while avoiding the adventure of delving into and analyzing the raw, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) stuff. But these are not normal times. We’re at the three-year point of the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) economy, an appellation I applied in early July 2008, when I recognized that the economy was fundamentally changing, and not for the better. In abnormal times such as these, you cannot be sure that the SA data adequately reflects what’s happening in the raw NSA information.
The following chart showing NSA and SA job additions and losses in the month of May during the past 11 years, both overall and in the private sector, will demonstrate the raw data’s current importance:
Going all the way back to 1955, May has been a month when net employer hires have been positive, usually by a large amount. Heavy-hiring months like March, April, and May make up for ones like January and July, when the workforce usually significantly contracts.
But how can you not believe the Messiah Obama Christ and his disciples in the (perfectly unbiased) MSM when they say the recession is over?
Blumer, you are a non-believing heathen pagan traitor!
By fundamentally changing this great nation, we have the economy that such change provides. POR, by thinking they can manipulate the U.S. into a command and control economy, are now reaping the reward of said change and are wholly responsible for the bad employment numbers, market uncertainty, over-regulation and, of course, said hostility toward capitalism. But the conservation of matter theory works as an analogy: That it cannot be created or destroyed but merely changes form. Indeed, they have put some serious roadblocks in front of free-enterprise but hopefully, the smart business people will figure out ways around them until they are done away with. I know it will be difficult and in many cases, impossible, as desired by our socialists in political power. Of course, they deride any blame for it, while secretly taking pleasure in same. Such angry people should never be allowed into office ever again, unless they are fiercely angry against socialism/communism, as is appropriate.
This article is a hate crime – manipulating data to make Barack Hitler Obama look bad – this must not be tolerated – where is the Federal police when you need them?
What’s incredible is how Professor O’Barry and the MSM are able to convince America that the recovery “is just around the corner.” As I write this his approval is an amazing 51% on RCP. This is only due to the power of propaganda. Given all that is happening his numbers should be in the 30s.
We have a real battle in 2012 and we better be prepared.
His numbers really have cratered. Remember the fawning media only polls groups that fit their narrative and use unscientific methods to arrive at their preconceived beliefs anyway. My guess that Hambone’s real approval numbers in any group other than blacks is in the teens, if that. How many of those polled by the media have been perpetually unemployed? Have their houses foreclosed on? Lost money in the GM/Chrysler takeover? etc., etc.
me
If the Republicans don’t find a candidate to run against Barry and find her soon the election will be over before it even starts. Barry has the media propaganda mavens in his pocket and they will put out any and all sorts of information that is intended to make Barry look good regardless of what is actually the truth. And too many people are still somehow smitten by the mystic of Barry so much so that they will vote him back into office regardless of how awful the economy is, how terrible the housing market is or how many wars Barry gets us involved in.
Rumors of the Republican demise might be greatly exaggerated. I hear that the billion dollar war chest isn’t, the ban on reporters at fund raising events is b/c O and Biden are basically having to get down on their knees and beg. And, despite posts to the contrary, voters on whom they depended (ex: Jews, African-Americans) are also taking a hard second look, also reflected by lessening campain donations and slow but steady withdrawal of support.
Maybe 44 and the li’l one are still are feeling the aftereffects of the koolaid they handed out in 2008, but the best of the rest are not bellying up to the bar for a second round.
Not saying it’s a Gimme for the R’s, but it’s not a done deal for the D’s, either.
Well, whatever the reason, it’s Bush’s fault, right?
(sarc)
There is no way Obama will be reelected. The job numbers will get even worse next year. Real estate prices are still falling. And when they finally hit bottom, it will take 18 months before the job market starts to pick up
JL, I am with you. I think the whole Obama thing in the polls is that people don’t want to seem racist so they say something nice instead of saying the truth.
In Nov. 2010, the electorate made their minds known. It won’t be any different in NOV. 2012!
I hope you’re not underestimating the stupidity of the voters.
TRUETRUETRUE!!! America elected a man that was not properly vetted, the MSM followed the false cried of racism when he was questioned..and of course the Republicans offered a milquetoast candidate in John “I really don’t want to win” McCain.
If we are intimidated…or have that third party comes in and split the vote, Obama will win,AGAIN. He won because of his skin color, not his achievements, and he will again if we are not careful. Intimidation and fraud are to be watched and stopped…
So far…we don’t like one, not one, of the republican candidate field for president, NOt one…
McCain really wanted to win when his opponents were Republicans.
TRUETRUETRUE!!! America elected a man that was not properly vetted, the MSM followed the false cried of racism when he was questioned..and of course the Republicans offered a milquetoast candidate in John “I really don’t want to win” McCain.
If we are intimidated…or have that third party comes in and split the vote, Obama will win,AGAIN. He won because of his skin color, not his achievements, and he will again if we are not careful. Intimidation and fraud are to be watched and stopped…
So far…we don’t like one, not one, of the republican candidate field for president, NOt one…esp NOT the potential of John Huntsman JR..a true RINO
And we are also headed now into the summer months, when most corporations tend to hold off on hiring any new people until the fall. This summer could be a disaster for the nation when it comes to unemployment and the White House knows it. What’s worse, the people know it too. Is this a new “Recovery Summer” that Obama was pushing last year? Well, if it is, we sure are sunk. And Pelosi and John Kerry were ridiculing George W. Bush in 2005 saying we were in a “jobless recovery” when unemployment was at around 5%. I wonder what they think of Obama now? I just hope we can hold out until November 2012. With things this bad, there may not be much to save when a Republican president gets elected next year.
We aren’t holding off until fall – we are holding off until revenue starts increasing in a big way. In other words, until the Democrats lose control of Congress and the Presidency.
The 2012 election is as likely to turn on the difference in views of the “Haves” versus the “Have-nots”, than the Republicans versus the Democrats — a matter of who feels the most victimized, and who they blame, rather than on who has the best character or the best solutions. And the mainstream media, like every other “Have”, don’t realize they are only helping to destroy the country inhabited by the “Have-nots”, in reporting their biased feelings rather than the news. The political split in this country, right down the middle in every poll, between the Insane Left and the Clueless Right, is headed towards civil war if enough of the “Have-nots” lose their moral compass, along with their livelihoods — or realize there is more power in an annihilating herd than in party affiliation or ideological loyalty. Such is the change that Obama has really brought: Survival of the meanest.
The turning point will come when even the MSM can no longer use the word “recovery.” I actually saw some pinhead on Chris Matthews last week giving Obama’s achievements as “killing Osama and turning the economy around.” When “average viewers” hear drivel like that and BS detector alarms clang loudly all across America, it is the end for O.
Mr. Blumer, as others have mentioned, never underestimate the power of stupidity.
Don’t forget the ‘Jim Jones’-like followers, attendees of Uhbama in ’08. Common sense, reality and research is void, alien and ‘makes the brain hurt’ of said followers, make-believe media (Thanks J.J.).
The few trolls stopping by here have NO leg to stand on and yet provide nonsensical quotes, articles from the likes of nonsensical Paul ‘the budget was balanced under Clinton’ Krugman, EPA’s moronic Lisa Jackson and other water carriers.
We BETTER have a candidate who doesn’t blow smoke up the other party’s bum with ‘..the president is a gifted speaker’ or ‘intelligent with his dealings..’ hokum/ridiculous and unwarranted platitudes.
A candidate that gives a gut check and continues pounding away. The approach of RINO Juan ‘My friends’ McCain in ’08 was a freakin’ joke.
I’m here to testify to the awfulness that is the POR Economy.
After a lifetime in manufacturing, I’ve seen more damage done to our economy by executive fiat in the past 15 years than I thought I’d ever see. Efforts to “guide” us into a service economy and now towards a global economy are designed to fail. What we’re seeing in our job market is a direct result of abandoning our manufacturing base in favor of something better. Naturally, that “something better” was never defined, (Hope and Change, anyone?) and began to rely upon disposable income more and more, complete with the bubbles that accompany the rise and fall of that source of income.
Take a look around to see some of the truly idiotic things we’re doing in a feeble attempt to replace what was once a relatively stable economic foundation.
Does anyone really think we can build enough casinos to solve our problem? I think not.
We’ve managed to elect some truly stupid people in Washington, lawyers and others with no clue how a free market economy is supposed to operate. They’ve gleefully pass more and more laws, rules and regulations, until we’ve finally reached the tipping point. In the last four years, there’s a direct correlation between the rise of regulations and the fall of our economic indicators.
That phenomenon may not yet have a name. If it doesn’t, it surely deserves one. Obama’s Law of Overweening Government, followed by a spit to remove the bitter taste.
After a lifetime in manufacturing, I’ve seen more damage done to our economy by executive fiat in the past 15 years than I thought I’d ever see.
Your diatribe against the elite is somewhat misplaced. The job killing began in earnest once the business world embraced computer technology; what used to require 50 workers slowly morphed to requiring 40, then 30 as technology improved. And it didn’t matter whether this was office work or automation being added to factories. Even little things like desktop publishing software delivered a job killing smackdown. Everyone hated to pay the printer to create and set up the newsletter. They didn’t gripe about the printer losing his job though. They didn’t gripe until THEY were in that same boat.
This was discussed by “the elite” at the time. Even *before* that time writers like Pournelle and Niven (“Mote in God’s Eye”) predicted that what we’d have is massive welfare islands containing the bulk of the populace, and this was perceived even before Microsoft existed. In other words it wasn’t as if everyone was utterly asleep at the switch.
Pournelle has advocated for years going to an educational system that makes sense rather than impoverishing the middle class. Only 15% – 20% of the population is mentally capable of what college teaches — learning how to learn and abstract symbol processing — and the rest are perfectly suited for training programs. You don’t need a college degree to maintain electronics, etc.
As I see things part of the problem is not the elites so much as the expectations of the public that little Britney who is dumber than dirt ought to have a college education and make the big $$$ when in fact Britney is better suited to waitressing. And no I don’t look down on waitressing, my own daughter does this to help support herself in school (she’s pre-med.)
The jobs situation isn’t going to get fixed until there’s some realism. We can’t all be engineers and doctors. To me the arguments made by most PJM denizens are math impaired nonsense along the lines of educational bureacrats demanding that most kids be above average. Ummm… can’t happen. 50% of us are average or below, so the focus needs to be on how to keep that 50% employed.
Your point about little Britny is valid. There are a great many folk who are clearly smart enough to attend college, but prefer to work with our hands. (or our feet, in your daughter’s case. No shame there, I’ve been a waiter myself.)
My experience within manufacturing was that it provided a place for those of us outside of college. It’s not like I’m not educated in my chosen field: I obtained three certificates requiring over six years of training and apprenticeship. Good welders are also certified, as are many others in the field. Manufacturing once provided a place for painters, QC folk, machine operators, and truck drivers, all essential components of a vital, diverse job market that Washington has all but eliminated through legislation and excessive regulation.
Notice the boom in the respective economies that embraced manufacturing when we abandoned it: Japan, South Korea, and now China. We’re making a grave mistake by not producing our own goods here at home. But power-mad regulatory zealots have made the business climate extremely hostile to the creation of new manufacturing jobs, and we’re paying the price of this economic engineering that we didn’t need. Ask yourself why our leaders feel the need to direct our economy in any particular direction instead of promoting natural, organic growth.
Great comments, BackwardsBoy!
Our economy already works like a bad government toilet. The only thing left is for the politicians to battle over which party gets the blame in the history books.(providing that someone will actually write a history book). We don’t make anything anymore. Everything is made in China or somewhere else. Consequently, everything we buy is only a poor facsimile of what we want. We are buying junk and we don’t even recognize quality goods anymore. Worse yet, we think we actually need this junk, so we buy it anyway. This also applies to restaurants and other services. Food is getting worse in restaurants and repair services are always a crap shoot. What are we thinking when we have to pay for warranties on goods we purchase and extra tips to try to get decent services? Are we thinking we can make jewels of the junk we buy? Even our toilets aren’t worth a damn anymore. None of this will change for the better in the future either. So our economy is already down a bad government toilet.
Jim,
You are spot on, but how many people realize this or want to understand. Everyonne is to busy in their little world that is slowly collapsing in front of their closed eyes. They may open them, but will it be to late? How do we bring awareness to the American people?
folks obama is just a front man like bush, clinton, et al. it’s the people behind the front man that we should all be shining the light on. they’ve been hiding for way too long and when the light hits them they REALLY do not like it at all because it exposes them for who they really are in front of all the people they snockered. give it a shot. find out who the folks are behind the scenes. i’ll give you a principle from the bible to find them too because our Creator warned us about this problem. and you wonder why the bible is hated by the elites of this world… it exposes them and they don’t like it one bit. anyway the principle is that the love of money is the root of all evil. so best place to begin finding the real miscreants behind the scenes is to follow money. remember not everyone rich is evil. the principle again is, the LOVE of money is the root of all evil. a good place to start for president’s is with the bilderberg groupies. and remember… money is power. soooo where power is you will find money.
A new way to avoid the mandate?
Fellow Patriots,
The Democrats and their leftist policy ilk were nice enough to throw us a bone on the healthcare mandate. Yes, folks, it is now public… there IS a way to avoid the Obamacare mandate. The newly discovered method is not only 100% legal, it was made known via Barack Obama’s solicitor general!
President Obama’s solicitor general, defending the national health care law on Wednesday, told a federal appeals court that Americans who didn’t like the individual mandate could always avoid it by choosing to earn less money.
You read that right. All we have to do to avoid the government mandate is make less money and become less productive in society!
Obama’s economic recovery policy seems to be a simple plan of “the harder you work, the more productive you become, the more we’ll take from you and the less choice you’ll have.”
Gee… where do we sign up?
What is interesting is, if you look at the 2010 May numbers, and remover the 400k Census hires, you get a SA of +58, which is almost identical to this years +54. Folks, this is the PERMANENT new jobs reality, and it does not even keep up with population growth. 8-9% unemployment was the standard in Euro Social-Democratic countries, back when we were enjoying 5% unemployment.
Rebound? This IS the rebound. This IS the new normal. Deal with it. Sucks to be you! Or rather, sucks to be us!
It WILL end. It will end 18 months after Real Estate hits bottom. This crises is driven purely by liquidity problems. Nothing magic or strange going on. It’s boringly predictable. And has been ever since Bernanke increased the discount window interest rate from 1% to 5% in 2005-2007.
They can speed up the recovery with
1) Tax cuts to increase the money supply
2) Reigning in the unions (like they did in Germany) to make salaries follow
down the De facto deflation.
3) Increase flexibility by deregulating.
4) Cut government spending and increase productivity by moving means from the
unproductive parts of society to the productive parts.
I believe the Republicans will do most or all of the above, if they get a decent mandate in 2012.
There’s a new game in town: pay to play news. Their top secret conference in Boston this past weekend focuses on how to “frame” news. Dan Abrams shilled for it in Mediate calling it a “humanitarian conference.”
http://wwwtwosetsofbooks.blogspot.com/2011/06/mr-minow-ends-his-career-in-dreck-meet.html
http://wwwtwosetsofbooks.blogspot.com/2011/06/dan-abrams-mediaite-peddles-tomorrows.html
419,000 new claims for unemployment WEEKLY. This translates into 1.8 millions job losses a month, and has been on this trend for 38 consecutive months.
And that does not even include those that are falling off the unemployment wagon and becoming just unemployed…
Tom, keep these articles coming. The news is bad, the reality is worse, but your brass tacks interpretations help me grasp the current snapshot sufficiently to put it in context.
Thank goodness Obama is maintaining his “laser focus” on jobs. Just think how bad things would be if he weren’t?!
Golf, anyone?
Like no other time in history, the whole world is now embroiled in chaos and catastrophe most similar to a world war. We have been basically stripped of our rights, options and opportunities like refugees of an occupied defeated country.
People need to gather their family and friends together and begin caching food, water and other supplies in order to outlast the economic and environmental collapse that will play out slowly over the next couple years.
http://www.familysurvivalcenter.com/supplies.htm
The New Lost Generation
Lost generations tend to come and go. They generally get lost, find their way and themselves, and move on in life. The most lost, of course, never do find an exit and remain in the Valley of the Lost for most or all of their existences.
At the risk of overly dramatizing the situation, America is experiencing what some are calling a new lost generation, a generation which is unique in that the plight of the affected is not only not of their own making but shows no signs it will end in their lifetimes.
The original “Lost Generation” of post-World War One, the era of the Jazz Age when writers such as Hemingway, Fitzgerald, and Dos Passos and a various others began to express their jaded views of life and society in their novels, was supplanted by various lost pretenders but today we have a unique breed.
They are lost not because of emotional and physical injuries wreaked on them by war or by the drug culture or other factors but by a national economy which has yet to reflect any substantive recovery from what is now being termed the “Great Recession” chiefly as an excuse for the failed policies visited upon them by President Barack Hussein Obama and the Federal Reserve.
Nevertheless, lost or not, the young in entreprenurial America have something going for them their elders do not, their youth from which hope springs eternal.
Ron Brownstein capsulized the root issue of the dilemma facing the new lost generation in his article, “Upside Down,” subtitled, “Why millennials can’t start their careers and baby boomers can’t end theirs” in the National Journal: “It’s hard to say this spring whether it’s more difficult for the class of 2011 to enter the labor force or for the class of 1967 to leave it.” In brief, the Boomers can’t retire so the Millenials can’t take their jobs. . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=4790)
This is terrible news. Our markets are down quite significantly, and now the unemployment rate is rising. The economy is still having troubles recovering from the recession of 2008. The best way to get out of a recession is to spend your money not save it.
michelle,
you just failed the economics litmus test. you can’t spend your way out of a recession, you must do the opposite. the reason the gov has no money is because they are spending at the same rate as before, when tax receipts were much higher. spending has to drop.
Dave,
I appreciate your opinion, although we may have contrasting ideas on how to help the economy. I wasn’t focusing on the gov’t in my comment as much as I was the general public. If people spend their money then businesses will become more profitable, which will effect their company share price positively. This will increase the money going into the pockets of investors. This is what I was taught during my 4 years of schooling at Stanford’s business program anyways.