A Huge Night for the GOP in Virginia
Additionally, the full extent of the failure of Creigh Deeds can be seen in statewide voter turnout. Fewer voters came to the polls this year (an estimated 1,949,841) than did for last year’s presidential election (3,723,260). Lower turnout is to be expected in off-year elections, of course, but the drop-off from last year, and the apparent failure of younger voters to come to the polls in anything close to the numbers they did last year, is clearly an indication that the much-vaunted Obama machine didn’t have any impact beyond the 2008 election itself. For example, in both Arlington County and the city of Alexandria, two Democratic strongholds, Deeds won easily. However, turnout in both jurisdictions was down by more than 50% from last year, and Deeds underperformed compared to the results Democrats had seen in 2005. Obviously, even die-hard Democrats weren’t excited by Creigh Deeds.
There is no doubt that many pundits will try to draw national implications out of the massive Republican comeback in Virginia, but there’s not really any evidence that there are any. For one thing, yesterday’s exit polls make it fairly clear that most voters did not consider their vote in the McDonnell-Deeds race to be a re-election of their opinion about the president. By a wide margin, the most important issue for most voters was the state of the economy. Obviously, that should raise red flags for Democrats as we head into 2010 with every indication that unemployment will remain high for most of the coming year, but it’s a mistake to look at these results as a referendum on Barack Obama’s presidency. Also, President Obama didn’t invest nearly the same amount of time in Virginia that he did in New Jersey, largely because national Democrats had recognized weeks ago that the Deeds campaign was doomed.
No, the results in Virginia do not prove that the Obama presidency is fatally wounded, and they certainly don’t mean anything when it comes to issues like the debate over health care reform. What they do prove, though, is that Republicans can still win in so-called purple states like Virginia (with two Democratic senators and a majority-Democratic congressional delegation, Virginia is still very much a purple state) if they focus their campaigns on applying small-government principles to the issues that voters care about. That’s what Bob McDonnell did. He did it better than any Republican in Virginia has in at least twelve years, and that’s the main reason that he won last night.
If Republicans want to draw a lesson from Virginia, that’s the one they need to learn.
I disagree. The GOP wins in the very blue Virginia & New Jersey wounds President Obama’s radical agenda to the point–if the Democrats were listening–would put a halt to ObamaCare, Crap & Tax, Card Check, & Amnesty 2.0; however, I fully expect President Obama not to listen since he is arrogant & believes his own vapid hype. The Congress is another matter completely since 2010 is just around the corner. Senator Harry Reid has shelved ObamaCare until 2010, despite whatever happens in the Socialist controlled House of Nancy Pelosi. President Obama’s agenda has been on the skids since this early Spring & Summer; it should not come to a halt with these two elections. But I don’t expect President Obama nor Nancy Pelosi to listen to their own regret.
Mr. Mataconis:
I think McDonnel’s big win will mean I-66 gets widened to eight lanes all the way through Arlington.
We can cede what’s left over back to the District, and then Arlingtonians can realize their dream of living under a life-long Democratic regime.
Beg to differ on one point with the NoVa lawyer/author:
Virginia is not a “purple” state – NOT EVEN CLOSE.
It is traditional.
It is conservative.
Above all, it is ALWAYS contrarian.
We live close enough to the septic tank otherwise known as the Nation’s Capital.
(Breaks my heart to say so, I grew up there.)
We know what to fight against/”resist”.
SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS
Bob McDonnell’s “reactionary” college thesis might have doomed his campaign in 2008, but this is 2009. The secularist yuppies would have tended to vote on behalf of their cultural war values. Alas, these folks are now worrying, first, last, and foremost, about their pocketbook issues. Money talks, and bovine excrement walks. Virginians have no interest in becoming blue state losers. The blue states will probably get bluer—-and the purple and red states will get more red.
By the way, New Jersey will unlikely be able to save itself. It’s too far gone. The voters only gave Chris Christie a roughly five point victory. That’s not good enough. He needed a 15-20 point mandate. The voters in Virginia did not make that mistake. Their message was clear.
Mr. Mataconis lives in Northern Va., and I suspect he is somewhat out of touch with what Virginians in the rest of the state think. As a lifelong Virginian, and one with ties to all areas of the state except NOVA, I can tell you that when people say their vote is reflective of their concerns over the economy, they are referring to the national deficit and its likely long-term effects on the economy. So this vote was indeed a vote against Obama’s policies. People in Va. voted for Obama last year partly b/c he campaigned on a platform of bipartisanship and fiscal responsibility, saying he would go line by line through the budget and eliminate waste. Bush had put the country in debt, and we didn’t like it. Virginians are pragmatic and fiscally conservative, and they understand quite well that you can’t run a country on red ink. We are also very strong believers in individual liberty, and THAT, Mr. Mataconis, is why neither party has enjoyed a long run in this state in recent decades. Sic Semper Tyrannis. Virginians take that motto to heart.
Obama did not abandon Deeds because they saw his campaign was a lost cause. Deeds kept Obama at arms length throughout because early on, when Obama made an appearance with him, his numbers went even farther down. Deeds did not want Obama campaigning for him because he, as a Virginian, recognized that Virginians are revolting against the huge spending going on in Washington. And he didn’t want to be associated with that. McDonnell ran a largely very positive campaign in which he articulated his positions and stayed on point. The thesis was a non-factor because everyone could look at McDonnell’s record and see that he didn’t govern according to the principles in that 20-year-old thesis. They could look at his family and see that his daughter was a commander over in Iraq and now in a position of leadership at the Pentagon – clearly this is not a man who lives according to the statements in that thesis. Perhaps at the time he was merely giving the college administration what it wanted to hear – and what student hasn’t done that at some point in his/her college career?
Virginia will continue to move to the right as long as Washington continues to move to the left.