The February Campaign Schedule: Advantage Mitt
Florida is home to the Cape Canaveral launching site (known locally as the “Space Coast”) and that is appropriate for it gave a 50 to zero delegate rocket boost to Mitt Romney, more than doubling the combined votes of conservatives Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, thus helping his campaign achieve lift-off. That batch of 50 winner-take-all delegates put Mitt back in the delegate lead, a nice comeback from his drubbing in South Carolina. There’s more good news for Mitt, as the schedule sets Romney up for a nice, but not necessarily decisive, February run. For the non-Romney candidates, February may turn out to be the cruelest month.
Republicans will take a slight breather in February, as only 4% of the total delegates to the 2012 National Convention will be awarded and there is only one debate slated. (In fact, Michigan was penalized half its delegates for moving its primary up before March 1.) It cannot be emphasized enough that this 2012 Republican race has been extremely volatile with at least half a dozen shifts in momentum — remember when Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain all briefly led the national GOP polls? So no one should be surprised if February adds in some unexpected twists. Nevertheless, we’ll hazard a few predictions here.
Based on the first four contests, we can look at the voting patterns and make some projections.
Due to his win in Iowa and previous strength in rural Pennsylvania, we can safely say that Rick Santorum does well with middle-class religious voters, especially farmers, in the north. On the other hand, based on his sweep of both the South Carolina hills and the rural north Florida Panhandle, Newt Gingrich is popular with white Southerners. With strong support in the suburbs of Des Moines, Boston, and the east and west coasts of Florida, Mitt Romney’s base is in the upper-middle class, i.e., business and other economic conservatives. We can also say that Ron Paul has a small but fervent base (10-19%) among isolationists and true believers in all forms of liberty.
On the February schedule, there will be primaries in Arizona and Michigan plus caucuses in Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota. (There is also a non-binding primary in Missouri.) Only Minnesota is open to non-Republicans and only Arizona is a winner-take-all contest.
As expected, Romney repeated his 2008 win in Nevada, claiming 50% of the vote for the first time. Gingrich finished a distant second at 21%. The easiest predictions are for Romney victories in Maine and Michigan. He won both in 2008 and with good reason: Maine is on his New England home turf and he grew up in Michigan. In the latest round of polling, Romney leads in Michigan by 15% and in Arizona by a whopping 24%. It will be big and bad news for Romney if he loses any of those three states. Romney also won Colorado and Minnesota last time, but John McCain did not seriously contest them. Minnesota has a strong evangelical vote among Republicans and, like Iowa, is Rick Santorum’s best chance for an upset.
Romney has an organization in place already in Colorado, but the state also has a quirky independent streak that could help Ron Paul. With his energetic base, Paul is guaranteed to get at least a few delegates in every state except Arizona, especially the caucus states. Barring a major change in momentum, Romney should come out of these states with a minimum of 100 delegates, thereby padding his lead.
The problem for Gingrich and Santorum will be money. There are more contests which involve more travel and logistics, ad buys in multiple markets. It doesn’t get any easier to pay for the basic campaign necessities.
Gingrich wasn’t for Goldwater, either: http://tinyurl.com/77ok9xh
An impressive analysis:
“Stats Comparing Conservative Accomplishments of Mitt and Newt”
http://www.politijim.com/2012/01/stats-on-what-newt-and-mitt-did-not.html
(pssst…*anyone* who tells you “it’s over!” at this point has earned your scorn and contempt)
Didn’t you get the memo? Having a conservative record doesn’t count this time around.
It’s going to be hard for Newt or Santorum to hold on until March 6, or Super Tuesday. Both of them are going to need a lot more money to compete against Romeney. The Romney machine will also crush any opposition in February so that going into Super Tuesday will be that much harder for Newt or Santorum. I don’t know, but unless Newt or Santorum have a spectacular Super Tuesday, this primary is over and Romney has won.
As with Obama, Romney can’t run on his record…what a LOSER.
Listen to Mark Levin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHIiR7yr9rM&feature=player_embedded#!
The polls going into today look good for Santorum. He could win Minnesota and Missouri with Romney winning Colorado but with 20% less than he won in 2008. Heck in Minnesota Gingrich could come in 2nd.
Of course if that happens the long knives will come out against Santorum who has been basically ignored by Romney and his elites.
Unlike the 2008 Democratic primary where the negatives did not pile up around the candidates because there were no superpacs and the campaign focused on issues for the most part – as well as the Republican primary. This Republican primary went negative the second Romney thought he might have a chance in Iowa and slammed Gingrich. It hasn’t let up since.
Personally I prefer Romney as we can highlight what is wrong in the tax code and he represents everything we despise in a politician – saying anything to get a vote. Kerry made one remark taken out of context that tarred him (plus he ran a terrible campaign and deserved to lose) but Romney is gaffe prone and tone deaf. His old clips plus his positions today will turn off even the most conservative as they will hold their nose going into the voting booth.
I feel it’s going to be a big day for Santorum.
The Newtonian Implosion did serious damage to both Romney…and Gingrich.
And, the “generic Republican”.
Obama got an uptick from it…and from the phony employment numbers. (not from the REALLY phony employment numbers for blacks, who would vote for Obama if he had kicked Rosa Parks in the teeth at 95%)
The Unstable Newtrino act has damaged the Republican brand so significantly, that HE may not be able to recover from it. He has lost nearly all the “other” voters who might have seriously considered him as the “non-Romney” of choice, had he not thrown an Olympic-sized hissy fit.
Santorum stayed above the fray. And, although it was a lagging response…he has now picked up the momentum that the Newtonian Implosion halted.
Romney will win where Romney wins. Highly educated, extremely successful, very pro business…live and let live Republicans. That’s his base.
Our Unstable Newtrino is left to attack Republicans at their core. He has to run to the left of Obama and ACORN, trying to stir up class warfare, attack the successful, slam Wall Street, hit at the unicorns and dragons of the “establishment”, call conservative media “pravda”. In essence, he has to out-Obama the left in an assault on everything that Republicans stand for.
He has no other play, because he painted himself into that corner. It’s a small…very small…voter base. He can’t win with that base. He probably can’t even come in second with that base, if Santorum picks up steam.
In probably one of the worst campaign blunders in history, the Unstable Newtrino wiped out every advantage he had because of lack of discipline, self-control, patience and comportment. He acted SO non-Presidential…he destroyed in the voter’s mind’s eye…any projected image of him as President. Santorum was the big winner in that hissy fit.
Romney got bruised in it. Probably deservedly so, in some respects. He’s a horrible candidate, in a must win year. The entire Republican Party got a black eye and some bruising as well.
Santorum could benefit greatly. He is NOT likely to be able to overcome the trepidation of the live and let live crowd. He is too strident and sometimes too shrill. His WIFE says that. It’s true. His hardcore stances on personal issues will turn off swing voters. It’s much to overcome.
But he effectively hammers Romney on healthcare. He is well prepared. And, if he had some money…he would bury Newtrino now. Santorum is really the only viable “not Romney” left in the race.
Newt could win some southern states, don’t get me wrong. He just can’t win the nomination. Ever. It won’t happen. He’s wasting time and money from this point forward. He came in brand damaged…and he worsened it. His flights of fancy about sex on the moon, his near derangement going after Romney, his personal baggage…needed a skillful campaign and a self-discipline that just is completely missing.
Santorum is a long shot. His comportment is edgy and strident. He’s a bit too shrill on personal issues. He’s an earmark and pork guy who has some tiny bit of exposure there. He’s a very, very tough sell to the independent, swing, moderate, middle.
But he doesn’t have Romney’s tone deafness, is not out of touch with …you know…actual humans…and he has done more damage to Romney ON THE ISSUES than Newtrino has …by a mile.
It’s a two person race, with the Hermit Crab Newsletter King picking up his 10% along the way.
Frankly, it’s disheartening to watch the disintegration of what should have been a landslide wipeout of Marxism. Only the GOP could find a way to lose this election. They are well on their way. Or as Gisele might say…keep your eye on the @^$%%^ ball!
I disagree with your characterization of Newt. His attack on Bain Capital is legitimate and accurate. It is NOT an attack on capitalism or class warfare or anything “leftist.” Once the MSM decides to *finally* go after Mitt, they will crush him on Bain. Here’s an interview with a Reagan Conservative Venture Capitalist:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmrEUHdwAwQ&feature=youtu.be
Two more articles that have researched Bain:
http://rightwingnews.com/election-2012/mitt-romney-the-bailout-king-of-american-politics/
http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/10538-romneys-skeletons-his-bain-capital-received-millions-in-bailouts
Also … “Newt hit at the unicorns and dragons of the “establishment”, calling conservative media “pravda”
Sarah Palin, Mark Levin and quite a few others recognize the party establishment is trying to crush Newt. But it’s “unicorns and dragons” to you?
Also … “Unstable Newtrino wiped out every advantage he had because of lack of discipline, self-control, patience and comportment.”
Romney’s attacks WORKED to clobber Newt in Iowa and in Florida (they took a vacation in SC and Newt won). Newt is being “destroyed” (in the words of Romney’s campaign staff) by a fellow Republican – not the liberals, not Obama, not the MSM. Newt’s response was Genuine, Real, and Authentic, and I liked it.
“Sex on the moon?” “Near derangement?” You are a Newt-basher, not objective in any way. Good luck with Romney, he’s going to lose to Obama and we’ll all suffer.
I disagree with your characterization of Newt. His attack on Bain Capital is legitimate and accurate. It is NOT an attack on capitalism or class warfare or anything “leftist.” Once the MSM decides to *finally* go after Mitt, they will crush him on Bain. Here’s an interview with a Reagan Conservative Venture Capitalist:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmrEUHdwAwQ&feature=youtu.be
Two more articles that have researched Bain:
http://rightwingnews.com/election-2012/mitt-romney-the-bailout-king-of-american-politics/
http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/10538-romneys-skeletons-his-bain-capital-received-millions-in-bailouts
Also … “Newt hit at the unicorns and dragons of the “establishment”, calling conservative media “pravda”
Sarah Palin, Mark Levin and quite a few others recognize the party establishment is trying to crush Newt. But it’s “unicorns and dragons” to you?
Also … “Unstable Newtrino wiped out every advantage he had because of lack of discipline, self-control, patience and comportment.”
Romney’s attack ads WORKED in Iowa and in Florida (they took a vacation in SC and Newt won). Newt is being “destroyed” (in the words of Romney’s campaign staff) by a fellow Republican – not the liberals, not Obama, not the MSM. Newt’s response was Genuine, Real, and Authentic, and I liked it.
“Sex on the moon?” “Near derangement?” You are simply bashing Newt, not objective in any way.
I think you’ve got it nailed. Let me add that, regarding Michigan, East Michigan has the blue-collar guys who are socially conservative but mistrustful of big corporations, West Michigan has the upper-middle-class Republicans who don’t care about social issues and just want lower taxes. The former group are not Romney voters but the latter are. Just somthing to think about.
What surprised me yesterday was Santorum’s climb in the polls. Anything can happen in this horse race.