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The Depression-Era 1930s—1, The Obama ‘Recovery’—Ø

Thanks to the government's comprehensive revision.

by
Tom Blumer

Bio

July 31, 2014 - 8:48 am
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obamaville_11-21-11

Rather than allow the establishment press to be the nation’s lone voice on the U.S. economy — predictably chortling that it “has rebounded with vigor” after one supposedly good quarter showing 4 percent annualized growth — let’s take a look at what else the government’s Gross Domestic Product data released Wednesday revealed.

In addition to disclosing that the first quarter’s contraction, at an annualized 2.1 percent, was not quite as awful as once thought, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s comprehensive revisions to previously published annual and quarterly GDP data reconfirmed that the economy during the first four years of the Obama “recovery” underperformed every post-downturn economy since the Great Depression by a wide margin. Most people know that, or should — and if you don’t, here’s the proof.

Beyond that, BEA data now show that Obama’s post-recession economy put in a performance worse than that seen after the Great Depression itself.

To be clear, as I have noted in previous writeups on this comparison, I’m certainly not contending that the level of human suffering during and after the Great Recession has been anywhere near what it was during the 1930s. That said, many of us need to be reminded in this Obama-compliant media world — thank goodness we have the British tabloids to partially fill that void — that, among many other indicators of abject poverty and misery, there has been no meaningful decline in documented homelessness during the past several years.

In early June, I characterized the Obama economy’s recovery during the first four years after the Great Recession’s official end as “awfully close” to being as ugly as that seen after the Great Depression. In late June, after the first quarter’s reported contraction worsened to an annualized 2.9 percent, the Obama economy’s margin narrowed even further:

Top Rated Comments   
Keep unskewing that GDP!
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
Why not compare the recover to other industrial countries? The world economy is not the same as it was right after the great depression. Comparing the US to other countries recoveries is more logical and gives a better sense of whether Obama's policies were good. We can compare the US policy approach to the UK or other Eurozone countries. While they cut spending we had the stimulus. Our economy bounced back quicker than their countries.
12 weeks ago
12 weeks ago Link To Comment
4.0% GDP "expansion? where?
Decimation of Energy sector, Cost of basic heating through the roof (that's 32% increase). Gas pump prices never below $3.59/gal (on a good day). Housing starts in the dumps. Multi family housing (read:rentals) on the increase. Employment is now less than 40 hours per week (except in civil service); median income in every sector of the economy (across the board) is hovering around $45,000/year. More high school and college graduates (ever in America) are now still living with their parents. Where is this a 4.0% increase in GDP? More cities are projecting bankruptcy than ever before in all American history. More large corporations (Microsoft is laying of some 18,000 employees) are "downsizing" or just shutting down American plant and equipment and moving everything over seas. In all of top five tier cities across the USA more small, medium sized companies, businesses and yes (FRANCHISEES) have shuttered their operations. More office space in all these so called "top tier American cities" have growing pockets of "distressed properties." And more "Real Estate" agents have moved on or out of the "Real Estate" business. Today, rich foreign investors are snapping up American real estate for a song, and "flipping them" on a "wing and a prayer." Law suits galore for shoddy workmanship, city code violations and out-and-out corruption in this "flippers nightmare" on a scale never, ever imagined before. NAH! 4% GDP growth is Pure "Smoke-and-Mirrors!" "Show-Me-The-Money!!!!" says Cuban Gooding in the movie. Flimflammery of a Kabuki Show the likes one has never, ever seen before...puts Lois Lerner remarks in "DoddleBug" TV show for Kids level. Government lying at every turn...what next?
Unemployment stuck at 14% or more for six years running (U3 + U6). The "Fairy Godmother?" united with Her cohort "Tooth Fairy?" 51 million Americans now on some form of government assistance???? Join a Tea Party, urgently. Register to vote and vote. Let's get rid of these Washington DC Elite "Liar-Liar-Pants-on-Fire" cadre of "collectivists!" Pray. Amen.
12 weeks ago
12 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (24)
All Comments   (24)
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Are we nearing another chapter 11 bankrupcy? Guess how the private owners will extract the their pound of flesh this time.

"My investigation convinced me that during the last quarter of a century the average production of gold has been falling off considerably. The gold mines of the world are practically exhausted. There is only about $11,000,000,000 in gold in the world, with the United States owning a little more than four billions. We have more than $100,000,000,000 in debts payable in gold of the present weight and fineness. . . As a practical proposition these contracts cannot be collected in gold for the obvious reason that the gold supply of the entire world is not sufficient to make payment." -- Congressional Record, Congressman Dies, March 15, 1933

Before 1933 all contracts with the government were payable in gold. Now I ask you? Who in their right mind would enter into contracts totaling One Hundred billion dollars in gold, when there was only eleven billion in gold in the whole world, and we had about four billion. To keep from being hung by the American public they obeyed the banksters demands and turned over our country to them. They never came out and said we were in bankruptcy but, the fact remains, we are. In 1933 the gold of the whole country had to be turned in to the banksters, and all government contracts in gold were canceled. This is bankruptcy.

"Mr. Speaker, we are here now in chapter 11. Members of Congress are official trustees presiding over the greatest reorganization of any bankrupt entity in world history, the U.S. government." -- Congressman Traficant on the House floor, March 17, 1933

The wealth of the nation including our land was turned over to the banksters. In return, the nations 100 billion dollar debt was forgiven. I have two papers that have circulated the country on this subject. Remember Jesus said "money is the root of all evil" The Congress of 1933 sold every American into slavery to protect their asses. Read the following Congressional quotes:

"I want to show you where the people are being imposed upon by reason of the delegation of this tremendous power. I invite your attention to the fact that section 16 of the Federal Reserve Act provides that whenever the Government of the United States issues and delivers money, Federal Reserve notes, which are based on the credit of the Nation--they represent a mortgage upon your home and my home, and upon all the property of all the people of the Nation--to the Federal Reserve agent, an interest charge shall be collected for the Government." -- Congressional Record, Congressman Patman, March 13, 1933

 

"That is the equity of what we are about to do. Yes; you are going to close us down. Yes; you have already closed us down, and have been doing it long before this year. Our President says that for 3 years we have been on the way to bankruptcy. We have been on the way to bankruptcy longer than 3 years. We have been on the way to bankruptcy ever since we began to allow the financial mastery of this country gradually to get into the hands of a little clique that has held it right up until they would send us to the grave." -- Congressional Record, Congressman Long, March 11, 1933

11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
Boy, wasn't it just last month when you were telling us that we were probably in a recession, i.e. two quarters of GDP contraction? And then... 4% growth.

Tom, if you aren't the worst economic "analyst" going, then you are at least in the conversation.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
A. We've got two revisions to the second quarter to go, and look what happened to the first.

B. I was about the only person who thought that the final revision to the first quarter would be greater than the -1.6% everybody else was estimating. After all revisions, including the comprehensive, it's at -2.1%. You'll have to acknowledge that I called that.

C. None of your blathering refutes what the column is about, i.e., that the first four years of the Obama "recovery" were slighlly worse than the first four years of FDR's.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
Why not compare the recover to other industrial countries? The world economy is not the same as it was right after the great depression. Comparing the US to other countries recoveries is more logical and gives a better sense of whether Obama's policies were good. We can compare the US policy approach to the UK or other Eurozone countries. While they cut spending we had the stimulus. Our economy bounced back quicker than their countries.
12 weeks ago
12 weeks ago Link To Comment
You call this bouncing back? Really? Geez.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
What do you call going from loosing 700,000 jobs a month to gaining some 200,000 a month? Are we back to where the country was right before the bubble burst, no.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
I disagree with the premise, but let's go there anyway.

In general, the belief that Europe has had "austerity" is a fantasy. Many of them have even had their own "quantitative easings."

For example, there wasn't "austerity" in France. There were tax increases, including a wealth tax. The country is underperforming badly.

Meanwhile, Germany, the only country which has exhibited some fiscal sanity (to the point of annoying the Obama administration which wanted it to spend itself into oblivion like we're doing), is virtually the lone bright spot in the Eurozone.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
Germany has much higher percentage of taxes as a portion of their GDP. Should we raise taxes? They also have universal health care. They also have very strong unions.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
Changing the subject, the usual response of a lefty who doesn't have a substantive one.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
I suggest you take your own advice. My statement was that a more accurate assessment to the recover is no to compare it to 80 years ago, but to other industrial countries and see how we are doing compared to them. You completely ignored my whole point.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
You claimed that Germany has fiscal sanity. I stated that it has a higher percentage of GDP coming from taxes than in the US. Thus to have higher taxes here would equate to fiscal sanity. Sorry if you have trouble following your own assertions.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53fe06e2-dc98-11df-84f5-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz39A3subRK

The UK’s Conservative-led coalition has announced the most drastic budget cuts in
living memory, outstripping measures taken by other advanced economies which are also under pressure to sharply reduce public spending.- 10/20/10

This is from an article on France's budget in 2012
cuts in health care; cuts in family and housing benefits, which will be indexed on economic growth instead of inflation.
The government announced a temporary tax hike for companies with annual turnover of over €250 million—relatively much lower than the cuts on social spending for the working class.
As part of austerity measures, the parliament also adopted a new cost-cutting measure: increasing the number of days of unpaid sick leave for workers in both the public and private sectors to save €500 million. Public sector workers will forgo pay on their first day of sick leave and the number of days of unpaid sick leave for private sector workers will rise to 4 days from 3.

http://www.economist.com/node/21542434
The new government is turning the fiscal screws - 1/7/12

Please feel free to share some facts with me.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
The subject wasn't taxes. It was willingness to engage in reckless deficit spending. I wrote that that the Obama admin wanted Germany "to spend itself into oblivion like we're doing."

That the "fiscal sanity" under discussion was deficit spending was I believe quite obvious to most readers. I forgot to bring out crayons just for you.

Your references to national health care, tax levels, and France are really irrelevant.

When the press refers to "cuts," when the vast majority of the time, what's really occurring are "reductions in future levels of spending GROWTH" which are not cuts.

Though it's not directly relevant, here's an FYI on France --

++++++++++++++++

http://online.wsj.com/articles/french-government-presents-revised-2014-budget-1402480710

French Government Presents Revised 2014 Budget
Need to Revise Budget Shows How Far François Hollande's Government Has Drifted Off Course

++++++++++++++++++

The "drift off course" was into higher taxes and higher spending.
(show less)
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
4.0% GDP "expansion? where?
Decimation of Energy sector, Cost of basic heating through the roof (that's 32% increase). Gas pump prices never below $3.59/gal (on a good day). Housing starts in the dumps. Multi family housing (read:rentals) on the increase. Employment is now less than 40 hours per week (except in civil service); median income in every sector of the economy (across the board) is hovering around $45,000/year. More high school and college graduates (ever in America) are now still living with their parents. Where is this a 4.0% increase in GDP? More cities are projecting bankruptcy than ever before in all American history. More large corporations (Microsoft is laying of some 18,000 employees) are "downsizing" or just shutting down American plant and equipment and moving everything over seas. In all of top five tier cities across the USA more small, medium sized companies, businesses and yes (FRANCHISEES) have shuttered their operations. More office space in all these so called "top tier American cities" have growing pockets of "distressed properties." And more "Real Estate" agents have moved on or out of the "Real Estate" business. Today, rich foreign investors are snapping up American real estate for a song, and "flipping them" on a "wing and a prayer." Law suits galore for shoddy workmanship, city code violations and out-and-out corruption in this "flippers nightmare" on a scale never, ever imagined before. NAH! 4% GDP growth is Pure "Smoke-and-Mirrors!" "Show-Me-The-Money!!!!" says Cuban Gooding in the movie. Flimflammery of a Kabuki Show the likes one has never, ever seen before...puts Lois Lerner remarks in "DoddleBug" TV show for Kids level. Government lying at every turn...what next?
Unemployment stuck at 14% or more for six years running (U3 + U6). The "Fairy Godmother?" united with Her cohort "Tooth Fairy?" 51 million Americans now on some form of government assistance???? Join a Tea Party, urgently. Register to vote and vote. Let's get rid of these Washington DC Elite "Liar-Liar-Pants-on-Fire" cadre of "collectivists!" Pray. Amen.
12 weeks ago
12 weeks ago Link To Comment
Keep unskewing that GDP!
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
You could read the report instead of going on a rant. Since you seem incapable of doing your own research or you are scared that the economy might be picking up, I am not certain that it will, I will tell you from where the report claims the growth to be coming. Personally I think it is a bounce after the harsh winter but we will see next quarter. .3% percent govt expenditures, 1.66 business inventory, .23 residential investments, .68 business investments, 1.69 personal expenditure. While some areas of the economy are shrinking some areas are growing as well.
12 weeks ago
12 weeks ago Link To Comment
You read lackey for Obama and bootlicker, Brian N. Messup did a nice job there blitzing the propaganda, and you don't recognize it.

So I'll ask you in far simpler terms - one perhaps an Obama sycophant being driven by polls can relate.

Since you claim America is doing better than most, why is it the almost 3/4 of the populace believes America going down the wrong path?

And why is it the one industry that has excelled during this patch of lowest work force participation rates in over 40 years not on the Obama bandwagon, and in fact some of his loudest critics?

The Petroleum Industry.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
He listed no facts, just conjecture. Sorry for only being persuaded by facts. His list of Microsoft employees being laid off, includes all employees, not just those in the US. Like I said no facts or stats to back up his claim. I never asserted that America is doing better than most. I do not know how you define better to address this claim. Since when does public opinion equate to reality?
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
Facts:

Men = Lowest workforce participation rates since 1948 (when records started being kept)
Women = Lowest workforce participation rates since 1978

An additional $7.4 trillion in debt, with debt now sitting at about $17.6 trillion

Middle class wages down 7.4% since 2009

One in five families now in poverty; one in two at or near poverty

One in two college graduates unable to find employment in their major.

Student Loan debt @ $1.2 trillion

Let me give the Obama bootlickers a little lesson in finance.

Obama's first major "accomplishment"was to pass a stimulus package of $862 billion. No shovels ready. On an inflation adjusted basis, that would have paid for a brand new Eisenhower Interstate System.

Fine work, Dear Leader...

11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
He did list facts, just not stats. Public opinion can be very accurate, when it is based upon their own experiences. For example, inflation. I know when I hit the grocery store, I get less bang for my buck. I take home less grocery bags for the same amount of money. The containers keep getting smaller.

Or you can just look at how they keep revising the numbers again and again. That alone makes me doubt their information. I want to see mostly accurate numbers the first time, with minor revisions. I also do not want the revisions all going the same way.

Whom are you going to believe? the governments constantly revised numbers or your own lying eyes?
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
If they are facts, than I want citations. I do not think the revisions are nefarious. I think the idea that at the end of each month anyone knows all that happened in the economy that month is preposterous. It takes a long time to sort out what is going on, we get best guesses, which are changed as more information becomes accessible.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Since you seem incapable of doing your own research or you are scared that the economy might be picking up"

Really now? The commenter made quite a few assertions that seem based on an on-the-ground knowledge of what's going on. But he didn't pass your temperance test. Aww.

He's not scared that the economy isn't picking up, he believes based on what he has seen and read that the economy is not picking up.

I won't be convinced that it's picking up until after the next two revisions to the current quarter. Given that the first quarter went from +0.1 to -1.0 to -2.9 to -2.1, you shouldn't be either.

Even then, if the pickup isn't accompanied by real household income growth, it shouldn't impress anyone.
11 weeks ago
11 weeks ago Link To Comment
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