The Decision 2012: Romney’s VP Options
The first set of Gallup polls following the suspension of Rick Santorum’s campaign declared the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney to be virtually even: one survey had Obama slightly ahead; another had Romney ahead by one point. In such a tight race, 2012 could embody that rare situation when the choice of a running mate actually decides the outcome.
Most 20th century elections were not close enough for the vice presidential candidates to be much of a factor. John Kennedy’s 1960 selection of Texas Senator Lyndon Johnson kept Texas and a majority of Southern states in the Democratic column; this was probably the last time a running mate swung the race.
The late Bill Cavala was perhaps the most successful California Democratic political consultant ever. He directed winning campaigns for six decades, from the 1960s until his death in 2009. Per Cavala: when there was a 50-50 split in the national popular vote, the presidential election would be a “chess game” in the Electoral College. Besides the obvious qualification question, the key factor could be picking a running mate who brings over a state you normally might not win. (Cavala advised Al Gore in 2000 to pick Florida Senator Bob Graham or Indiana Senator Evan Bayh; victory in either of those states would have put Gore in the White House.)
However, the late Chris Collins — a conservative activist from Virginia — always referenced Hippocrates regarding VP selection: “First, do no harm.” While a decent running mate is no guarantee of winning, a bad choice can doom a campaign before it begins (see Tom Eagleton in 1972 and Geraldine Ferraro in 1984: the men who chose them both lost 49 states).
Romney has plenty of qualified options: Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Ohio Senator Rob Portman, Jeb Bush, and Tim Pawlenty must be on the list. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is only a freshman, but he has tremendous talent and represents perhaps the ultimate battleground state. Indeed, Florida helped decide the last three elections.
The 22 states John McCain won against Obama in 2008 now pack 179 electoral votes (270 are needed to win). Since President Obama is weaker in the Gallup Poll compared to four years ago, the McCain states are almost certainly safe for Romney. So to win, Romney will need to gain states summing at least 91 electoral votes. Obama winning Indiana’s 11 votes seems like a fluke; the Hoosier State will likely return to its GOP roots (especially if Daniels is on the ticket). Obama also carried North Carolina with less than 50% — the state will likely go to Romney.
Romney probably needs 65 more electoral votes to win. The key targets for both parties will be Florida (29 votes), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4). If Romney carries Florida plus two of the next three largest targets, he’s going to the White House — period.
Patrick, I carefully read every word of your thorough analysis, and my determination is:
The charismatic one. Out of Portman and Rubio and the whole bloody field for that matter, just pick the most charismatic.
Two stale white guys will sink us, especially if Obama hits the panic button and dumps Biden for Hillary.
The Founding Fathers were “stale white guys” – every single one of them.
Times have changed … and the old days aren’t coming back.
Good point. “Stale white guy” is offensive. Plus, Rubio is also white. So what’s race got to do with it?
To Obama and Holder and Sharpton and Jackson and the race industry – everything.
we agree totally!!!
we have allowed the obama administration to make race a front burner issue in America..without saying it..and the minority rules the majority here in America!
Race, and the supposed “war on women by republicans’ are major issues.
If republicans dont’ learn to ‘play the game”…they will be like McCain, dead before they atart. Of course I feel McCain had no intention of even trying to win the presidency..now that is a “stale white guy”..
When the Constitution was ratified in 1789, women didn’t have the right to vote, and blacks in the South were slaves, and there was no Hispanic vote worth mentioning. The voting electorate was perhaps 98% white males.
Today, white males make up only about 34% of the electorate.
Yep this country started down hill after women got the vote and raced downhill after children got the vote. Wonder is there a connection?
Arhooley, I’m with you. On topic-off topic I have said for a year that Biden will go and Hillary will replce him. I’ve been told that O and her don’t like each other. So when has that ever stopped politics, Kennedy/Johnson best example. This would make an otherwise weak incompetent president look much much better, even though Hillary in my view is wildly overrated and frankly a disaster as SOS.
It is imperative that the right V.P. be in place or Romney will be in a bad fix. I’m going to believe that he will make the right choice and my cursory view is that Portman or Rubio will be the one. I’d bet Portman as the more seasoned and probably better fit and he brings Ohio. Call me crazey, no don’t, but I truly think Rubio does not want it (I think there are reasons) which brings me to……….
But above all else the single most important issue is that whoever it is they have got to be “Vetted” down to insuring that their DNA matches both parents and that their dog has never bitten anyone and they always….always… clip their nose hairs before going out (last one from my wife, think women’s vote).
As much as I like Rubio, he is ineligible as he is not a natural born citizen. Why, when we have raised such a ruckus over 0 being ineligible, would we then turn around and encourage the same thing in our party? My understanding is that Rubio was 4 years old (or so) when his parents became US Citizens.
Jlbs: ….Why, when we have raised such a ruckus over 0 being ineligible, would we then turn around and encourage the same thing in our party?….
Of course, we should not do the same thing by putting Rubio in the VP slot. This is the very reason the GOP ignores the fact that BO is ineligible. This is why the GOP refuses to pursue BO to conviction. It is because the GOP has a couple of non-eligible party members of their own that they want to elevate to the WH. They put party before country.
Not to suggest that Obama wouldn’t give Hillary the nod if he thought he was in deep, deep doo-doo. But it is my understanding that Biden got assurances from Obama that he would be carried on the second ticket as a precondition to running as VP in the first place.
Historically, VP running mates barely add or detract one percentage point. As long as Romney stays on message and hammers Uhh-bama on his dismal record, it won’t matter much who he picks, as long as he doesn’t try to get too creative.
Any of the above would be able to eviserate Biden in a debate. But then, so would Homer Simpson.
i just can’t believe biden will remain the vp pick
But a well-chosen VP candidate will add quite a bit of that “one percent” (nationally!) in an important swing state. Did you read the article?
I read the article, thanks. And the fact remains that running mates don’t determine elections. Mondale didn’t lose because of Ferarro, he lost because of Mondale. You can play the VP sweepstakes as a mental exercise but the election will be determined on whether more voters prefer Romney or Obama.
If a Florida voter is inclined toward Obama, do you really think they will vote for Romney if he picks Rubio? Or will a FL voter leaning toward Romney switch to Obama because he picked Portman?
“Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is only a freshman, but he has tremendous talent”
Plenty of talent alright. He supported the “Arab Spring” (including the Libyan “Rebels”) and still does as far as I know. He supports amnesty for illegal aliens. He isn’t honest enough to call it that though. At the leftist Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., he gave a speech praising the U.N., the World Bank, and the IMF for Not Asserting “Narrow American Interests” as he called them. He’s a trenendous talent alright.
Don’t forget his recent speech in support of more unconstitutional war and invasions and drones. I think a good article on it is titled “Marco Rubio Wants to Rule the World.”
Oh wait, all the fake conservatives actually like that stuff.
Rubio is also not a Natural Born citizen. If that’s what you want as Prez of VP, you already have Obama.
Rubio is a natural born citizen.
So is Obama, and WND had “proven” it.
In what alternate universe?
Perhaps this explains why the repubs have not addressed this issue with respect to Obama.
It seems that Rubio likes “thrusting himself” into many things where his opinion is not welcome. There is something not right about this guy, but I don’t know what it is. It’s like he got elected to the Senate, and now he’s off to whatever else he thinks he can conquer, with hair afire. The only thing missing is his magic cape.
“But his (Christie’s) outspoken personality would overshadow Romney.) The only way that Mittens finds a running mate that doesn’t overshadow him is if he chooses an inanimate object, like a brick or a rock, as his running mate. Compared to Mitt, McCain was a rock star!
As a bright, rising star of the GOP, I hope that Rubio is wise enough to stay far, FAR away from becoming Mitt’s running mate. His conservative credibility already took a big hit with his endorsement of Romney, I’m not sure that his career could survive being the number two on a loosing Romney ticket. Keep your powder dry for 2020, Marco!
In 2020 President Romney will be wrapping up his second term and Vice President Rubio will be campaigning to replace him.
LOL, Moira! I seriously doubt that Romney (R-Centrist Democrat) will actually beat Obama (D-Socialist), unless the big O is caught in a hotel room with a dead girl, or a live boy. Obama is incompetant, but is personally liked by many people, while many (most?) people can’t stand Mitt. In a choice between two Democrats, most people will probably go with the one that they personally like the most (ie: who would you most like to have a beer with).
his is isomething the gop needs to work on.. you may not be crazy about mitt, but hehas been a success in life. he is a moral man, doesn’t go to the rev wright hate america church, hang with bombers from the 60′s etc.
We just can’t have another mc cain running …wow what a freaking disaster that man was, is..milquetoast at best
so, i sincerely hop the ads, voices for the oresudebtuak cabdudate are thoughtful and hard hitting on obama’s record.
we need a combo of christie and carville to put the ads and speeches together
sorry about typos…hard reading, if you actually stop to read…spell check not working..
Obama is incompetant, but is personally liked by many people, while many (most?) people can’t stand Mitt.
Can’t stand Mitt? Whatevs. Let me give you a piece of advice:
If you want to be a really successful troll then perhaps you shouldn’t try so hard… As it is, I’m sure you’ve got your raffle ticket for a chance to have a beer with Obama.
Nope, I’m not in the “have a beer summit with Obama” raffle, but if he wanted to talk sports rather than politics, then, sure, I’d have a beer with him. I don’t personally dislike him, as a person, I don’t even know him, I just don’t like what he’s done to our country. He wasn’t qualified for the job in ’08, the last 3+ years have proven that, and he’s still not qualified now.
Mitt, on the other hand, stands for…um…what does he stand for, anyway? Who knows? Mitt himself doesn’t know what he stands for until he checks where he is today, looks at the latest polls, and sticks his finger in the wind. The man has zero connection with the average American. His, by all accounts exemplary, family life does not give him a pass for being absolutely dispicable in almost every other aspect. I can’t believe that the conservative base of the GOP has been reduced to the (very slim) hope of Ron Paul (?!?) winning enough delegates between now and Tampa to deny Mitt the nomination on the first ballot, and (maybe) force an acceptable conservative candidate on the RINO establishment.
The man has zero connection with the average American.
That’s false. And it’s particularly amusing to hear that from an anonymous commenter who may or may not even be American. But I can assure you that Obama’s failed economic policies and bureaucratic overreach definitely affect average Americans.
And as for what he stands for, here’s the link to his website. Educate yourself.
http://www.mittromney.com/
I actually agree with much of what you say. It is true that when confronted with the real Democrat (President Obama) or the Democrat in drag (Mitt Romney), voters will vote for the real thing every time.
I guess that’s why you’re the “Cynical Wonder” rather than the “Intelligent Wonder.” Besides, the new talking point for trolls such as yourself is that Romney is the new Goldwater.
People lie to pollsters when they say they personally like BO. They don’t want to risk being regarded as racist, even anonymously to a pollster. Just wait till they get alone in the privacy of a voting booth – they’ll be much different.
goood man and thx
Portman as VP might help in Ohio, but probably nowhere else. Even though I’ve always voted Republican and he is my senator, I feel like I hardly know him, other than that he seems to have been the centrist Ohio GOP establishment pick. The only senator I feel close to in this area is Rand Paul, who seems to understand the problem (too much centralized government) and is a Tea Party favorite.
This would be a good pick in that Rand may be the only one to bridge the Paulists (thawarting whatever desires Dad has to run 3rd party) with socons and also is a toe-in-the-water assurance to southern fiscal conservatism (instead of Jim DeMint(I am placing my money on DeMint).
It’s probably going to be Senator Rob Portman of Ohio. Yawn. He’s very capable and he’s been around awhile and he will probably deliver Ohio, but he’s not going to do much to stimulate the conservative Republican base. Rubio is a fine man but he hasn’t even served one term in the Senate.
I think Romney should pick Bobby Jindal from Louisiana. Not only is this guy smart and a tough fighter, but he’s also been a popular governor for many years now. He would do wonders in getting various ethnic votes and he would put a lock on most (if not all) of the southern states, maybe even Florida, too. It would be a great pick and would show how big a tent the Republican party is. Sure, put Portman on the ticket if you want. But two boring white guys on the ticket isn’t going to cut it with an ever expanding voter pool this year.
I wish they could mesh the accomplishments of Jindal with the visuals of Nikki Haley. I’m not referring to her own appearance per se, but the fact that she has a Sikh minister dad: I would pay top $ just to see her dad onstage with a red-white and blue Turban in Tampa. Also she converted to Christianity at a much later age to be married to her husband, as opposed to Jindal converting at age 9 or so. This timing of conversion may matter to many of the South Asian/Desi ethnics in suburbia you are trying to court.
Your idea makes the most sense. I think Portman wont give Romney much and I am sure that Rubio would bet “Palinized”
Just to clarify: Virginia governors cannot serve consecutive terms, so it’s a little misleading to say that Gov McDonnell is in his “first” term. He’s more than halfway done being governor, unless he runs again in 2017 or later.
I’m glad he reopened the rest areas and all that; it wasn’t much fun during the Kaine administration standing in line at a sketchy Citgo for half an hour, waiting for a chance to use a dirty bathroom while our feet. stuck. to. the. floor. and McDonnell has signed some good pro-life legislation.
Mitt is sure to make a bold decision.
It’s in his genes. After paying a couple of hunded consultants a couple of million to make dozens of spreadsheets and calculating the cost benefits to the seventh decimal point, he’ll pick somebody the Slimes will grundingly approve of.
But can he find a VP choice who he hasn’t smeared in the past?
I can think of about 10 people who wouldn’t be eager to get in a closed room with him.
Marco Rubio is not elegible to VP because he is not a “Natural Born Citizen”. His parents were not US citizens at the time of his birth in the US. He may be “Native Born” but not “Natural Born”.
Then WHY is Obama President? His father was a British Subject!
So was George Washington’s, Thomas Jefferson’s, and quite a few other past presidents’. So?
Stop me if I’m wrong here, but the Constitution only forbids PRESIDENTS from being something other than Natural Born Citizens…it says nothing about vice presidents. Should Romney/Rubio be elected and Romney die in office, I believe only then whould the presidency necessarily have to bypass Rubio in favor of number 3…the Speaker of the House.
Wrong. The 12th amendment to the Constitution says “But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.”
My choice for VP would be Representative Allen West. Read a little of what he writes and you will not be disappointed. A big plus is that he is from Florida which is an important swing state. An attack dog that would continually nip at the anointed one’s ankles.
Rubio is pro-amnesty and that’s a deal breaker with me. In no way should bad behavior be rewarded especially at the expense of US citizens.
The choice of VP may well be the tipping point either way…
I think the Hispanic vote will be very important in November, especially in Florida in light of the Zimmerman case. It is unfortunate that Rubio has some flaws, but we can hope that nothing happens to Romney, and 2016 could be a different VP if indicated.
It’s very likely that everyone has known this for a while, but I just learned yesterday the role Romney played in the finding of a co-worker’s daughter who disappeared. Setting up a command center, flying all employees to it, etc. I checked this out for credibility, and it is true. I have been lukewarm about the man, but I have to say, after reading this story, my opinion sky rocketed.
I’m attempting to attach one of the many links I found when I Googled this, but I’m not sure I’m doing it correctly.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/jan/30/chain-email/viral-internet-story-says-mitt-romney-helped-locat/
He’s still a Patriot Act-supporting, NDAA indefinite detention-supporting, TARP-supporting, bailout-supporting, policeman of the world-supporting, has no real plan to balance the budget, Etch-a-Sketch gun grabber.
Get back under the bridge, paultard.
As usual, the anti-Paul people can’t state actual, legitimate reasons why they are anti-Paul and only have personal attacks.
Ron Paul takes his oath of office seriously and supports the Constitution and wants to cut spending and stop the runaway debt and only fight properly declared wars and thinks the Fourth Amendment and due process are good ideas, oh no!
Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Kleefisch. Young, attractive, mother, very conservative, great on TV, tea-partier, real fighter.
Nev Gov Sandoval is pro-choice. Other than that, he’s just about perfect.
No to Condi Rice, she’s too contraversial being a Busher, and being a black woman is too panderizing.
Christie is too fat to be only Vice President, he will run on his own in 8 years. And he’s still got a lot to do in NJH
Rubio – YES. He’s young, attractively handsome, has good speaking voice, is a true conservative to prod Romney from time to time. His newness means there’s less on which Obama’s storm troopers can pounce and distort.
On what planet is Marco Rubio “a true conservative?” True neoconservative who likes policing the world and stealth amnesty, sure.
So says the guy who supports the guy who is the Neville Chamberlain of our time. Appeasing our enemies is not the way to impress actual Conservatives. Read any newsletters lately?
Appeasing our enemies? lol, Ron Paul is the only guy who wants to stop giving our enemies foreign aid! You’d think more people would want to do that if for no other reason than, you know, we’re broke.
With all due respect to the author of the article and commenter #17 ted, I am backing Condi Rice.
Rubio is backed by quite a few people. It’s thought he can bring Hispanics to the Republican Party. First, I hate it when people think all Hispanics are the same. Puerto Ricans on the east coast are not the same as Mexican-Americans in the Southwest. Rubio is of Cuban descent. Would Puerto Ricans or Mexican-Americans see him as one of their own?
Ted has a point about Rice. She was front and center in the Bush administration, but that was because she was one of the very few competent people in the Bush inner circle.
Rice has shown that she can articulate a President’s vision. Something that is important in a VP. Unlike a previous VP candidate, Rice knows how to talk to the press. More importantly, Rice had to deal with a very hostile liberal press and did it with reason and a lot of class.
It is not pandering to nominate a black woman for VP if that black woman just happens to be the smartest and most able person available.
Personally, I don’t think Romney will pick Rice. However, I will be pushing Condi Rice up until the moment that someone else is picked. If Rubio is the VP choice, that’s fine with me, but Rice is my #1 choice. She was the only good part of the Bush administration. I know she has said she would rather be with a bunch of squawking teenaged know-it-alls than have to deal with the Senate. Frankly, I don’t blame her. But she should be convinced that she should accept for the good of her party and most of all her country.
Government experience, the ability to deal with a hostile press and she looks good on TV. What more do you need?
Absolutely no to Rubio or Jindal – neither is a natural-born citizen, meaning born on US soil PLUS both parents must be US citizens at the time of the child’s birth. I did not vote for 0bama, and I won’t vote for any other fraud.
Again, correct me if I’m wrong, but VP’s are not Presidents…and the constitution says nothing about the qualifications of VP. Succession issues would only matter if Romney died in office.
As I replied to your earlier comment, the US Constitution’s 12th amendment includes the following text: “But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.”
Romney-Kardashian!
Don’t forget Al Cowlings as Secretary of State!
Funny how the Repub VP nominees (Palin, Rubio or whomever) need to be more experienced than the Dems Prez.
If you have heard Rubio speak, even once, you know what charisma he commands.
He is on par with some of the best speakers this country has produced. And he’s youthful, Latin, lives in Florida and has a great personal story to tell.
I feel if you have to explain who you’re VP pick is, he’s the wrong guy then.
Rubio is already better known than most of these possibles, and will ignite hispanic voters, and fire up the troops at rallies everywhere.