The Battle for America 2010: One Week Out, How Big Will the GOP Wave Be in the House?
The Sudden Appearing
This type of race is different from the hockey stick race in that it doesn’t show up as competitive at all until the last few weeks and, in some cases, the last few days. Then, abruptly, everybody’s talking about it, numbering it among likely takeover possibilities. In 2006, we saw a perfect example of this in Kansas’ second district. It wasn’t until mere days before the election that the competitiveness of the race became apparent to political observers, and by election night, Democrat Nancy Boyda had unseated Republican incumbent Jim Ryun in a stunning upset.
There are many races across the country which fall into this category this year. One of the more interesting is the race in California’s CD-47, where Vietnamese-American Van Tran has benefited from Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez’ racially charged comments made last month. This district has suddenly become very competitive, and while Sanchez still holds a slight advantage in my projection, a recent Republican poll shows the race exactly tied. The momentum clearly favors Tran.
Others in this category are Phil Hare’s seat in Illinois CD-17 (though Jim Geraghty has seen this coming for some time), Lincoln Davis in Tennessee CD-4, Sanford Bishop in GA-2, Mike McIntyre in NC-7, and Charlie Wilson’s OH-6 seat. All these races have become very competitive in the last month. Expect some, if not all, of them to flip to red on November 2.
The Covert Insertion
There’s a recruitment ad for the U.S. Navy that highlights the skilled stealth with which Navy Seals operate. In the ad, the camera is focused on an empty beach at night. Flashes of lightning reveal nothing out of the ordinary. A short period of darkness follows and then another lightning display. This time, footsteps leading from the water cover the sand. Someone has come ashore without detection. Such is the nature of our military’s special forces. It also describes what may be in store for us on election night.
This type of race is on nobody’s radar early. It is on no one’s radar late. But by the time we wake up to the race results, someone has come in and stolen it away. Of course, by their very nature, these races are the hardest to identify beforehand. That said, we can get hints as to which are candidates for this type of surprise result. Consider a poll out of Washington’s 6th District, home to 17-term Democrat Norman Dicks. Nobody is tracking this race, yet the survey gives Republican Doug Cloud a narrow lead. Could Cloud come out of nowhere to snatch this one for Republicans? Only time will tell. And that’s the thing about this category. Hardly anyone will even suspect these seats are vulnerable until they have been lost.
The Republican wave is coming; of that we can be sure. But in truth, no one knows what the final damage will be to the Democratic caucus in the House. Can the GOP take their present momentum through the finish line? How many seats currently projected as takeovers will live up to that billing? How many, if any, seats leaning Democrat will succumb to the onrushing tempest? And finally, how many Norm Dicks are out there that no one has yet identified? We are in unfamiliar waters this time around. We’ve not seen the factors present as they are in any election in my lifetime. To sum it all up, I think another Obi-wan quip is appropriate: “How can you predict something that hasn’t happened before?”
In seven days, we won’t have to.
Small correction.
The Republican candidate in Florida’s 22nd District is ALLEN West, not Adam West.
Go Allen!
Yeah, but who wouldn’t want to see Batman in the House?
“To the Bat-conference chamber, Robin. We haven’t one moment to lose!”
Yes, and you can bet LTC Allen West will not refer to Ahmadinejad as “old chum,” and he would view any increased government spending as “a fate worse than death.”
But he might replace AF1 with the Bat-plane; and the jury is still out on wearing a Bat-utility belt.
Would love to see Batman take down the Joker in the White House.
Art of War and Warfare:
I received an email from a conservative friend of mine who lives in the People’s Republic of California and he was discussing the current administration and their bungling diplomacies, etc. and discussing chess as a game to plan war strategies, etc. I responded to my good friend with the following and entitled it the Art Of Warfare:
Exactly Doc–First of all, if you find it necessary to go to war, you then have to have as your goal, winning the war. Then, you make a plan. Then, you implement your plan. If your plan is not working, regroup and figure out why said plan did not work, and then make necessary adjustments to said plan, and act on it. And like in any planning, only scrap what does not work, keep what was working well, and then get on with the plan until your goal is achieved. If your original assessment was that war was not only the right thing to do and thus necessary, then you owe it to the cause of good and to your soldiers and to your citizens and allies to achieve the goal of defeating the enemy you found it necessary to go to war with to begin with. And, to date, in history, no wars that involved the forces of perceived good and evil, has the war been won with words and diplomacy. Diplomacy comes after you have defeated your enemy and you let the enemy know what his future rules of civility are going to be if you have any vested interest and right to be involved with his country to begin with. And, if what you are telling the enemy what his rules of civility are going to be, you have to be sure that what those rules are, are acceptable to what the majority of the citizens of said nation want. And, if you do not have the people on your side, maybe you should not be there to begin with, unless the only way to keep the nation from being an aggressor is to occupy them and keep them in check. And, with a place like the middle east where you have Muslim Regimes, who have 20th and 21st century technologies and 10th century BC mentalities, you either have to take away their technologies or capabilities of using said technologies when it comes to warfare technologies. Or, if you are not willing to do this, then you must make sure that you keep their leaders in Check to insure that they will never use those technologies against their neighbors or against any other non-aggressor nation. If the war in Iraq was necessary, then it is our responsibility now to stay in the area long enough to finish the job in the region and that may require the permanent occupation of Iraq with permanent bases to keep the Iranians and other hostiles in perpetual Check Mate. In the meantime, if part of our reason for being there is OIL because we need it, then we need to lessen the need for their oil by extracting and using our own oil which, according to our own geologists, we have plenty of it. And, as a nation, we cannot allow a group of enviro-whack jobs who have their own personalized goals and beliefs and agendas to keep us from extracting our own energy resources wherever those resources are located. And, also, when the enviro-whack jobs are endangering national security, these whack jobs need to be investigated and see which of our other enemies are they either knowingly or unknowingly colluding with. The Liberal Mindset in this country at the highest levels of power is the greatest national security threat this nation faces. And, many of them are knowingly colluding with our enemies, while, I am sure that most of them are just unknowing and ignorant pawns who go along to get along for their own selfish needs for power and approval of the powers that be. Looking at the makeup of our congress, I have never seen such an amassed group of fools and incompetents, who are able to wield so much power with an unlimited Checking Account. The current makeup of our leadership in this country is the biggest assortment of fools, lunatics, incompetents, criminals, subversives, perverts and enemy spies that I have ever witnessed. You could not plan and implement a More Perfect Storm for Disaster than what we have assembled in our government today. And, if we do not recognize this current congress and president for what and who they are, and remove them at the ballot box, and then begin to Down Size their Powers and the Abilities for them to Make another Mess of the sort they have already created, our days as a free an sovereign people living in a free and sovereign nation are numbered. This current government and it’s leadership are in bed with our enemies and in some cases, our enemies are already in positions of power in our government. The downsizing of government is absolutely necessary, and by downsizing, I mean the elimination of some of the major Agencies, Bureaus, Commissions, and Departments that do no good at all and in fact, are doing great harm to our country. And, along with these Major Unconstitutional ABCD’s of Bureaucracy, you eliminate the thousands of Tentacles of these major Bureaucracies that are spread out all over the nation like a massive root ball in a potted plant when the plant outgrows the pot. The major war we now face as a nation is the war at home. And, the citizenry of this nation have to be awakened and educated to the fact that our current government is beyond incompetent, they are criminally and suicidally incompetent. And, if we do not Win The War at home, we will continue to play into the hands of our enemies, and we will deliver the weapons and tools that our enemies will take and then destroy us and our allies with. This is the case in the middle east now. Iran is still using technologies that we gave them. The Iran we have today is the creation of Feel Good Incompetents in this government, both present and past. You can go back to Jimmy Carter, who was another incompetent warm and fuzzy president who had drank the communist kool-aid, and see how his policies put the Islamic Lunatics in power who toppled the Shah who was the head of an elected and civilized society. And, you can mark Jimmy Carter’s Presidency as the Beginning of this Islamic Terrorist War that we are still fighting today. Today, we can win the war at home with words that educate and awaken The Masses of Americans who are ignorant and are kept that way by our MSM, Hollywood, Politicians and the Public Schools. We have to end the Official Brainwashing, Lying and Propaganda Campaigns that have been waged on this country by our very so-called leaders, and tell folks what is really going on. It is my firm belief as an educator, that people make much better decisions when they are armed with the truth and good information. Mostly what the citizens of our country are being fed today are Lies, Propaganda, and Dis-Information, and it is my belief that the majority of these Lies, Propaganda and Dis-Information is being disseminated purposely by Our Leaders and the MSM and Hollywood is providing the Megaphone to Broadcast these Lies, Propaganda and Dis-Information. And, the majority of the citizens, are merely pawns who have Bought The Lies and believe the lies to be truths, and therefore are making daily decisions based on what they believe to be facts, when in fact, they have been lied to deliberately and dumbed down deliberately by the powers that be. The Liberal Democrats and other Nefarious Enemies of our Freedoms know the level of ignorance and illiteracy that exists in the USA today, because they have purposely engineered this dumbing down and brainwashing campaign over the past 4 decades, and they Prey On This Ignorance, thus the Election of the Likes of Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Barney Frank, Al Cee Hastings, John Lewis, Barbara Boxer, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and the rest of the Capitol Hill Gang of thugs, thieves, subversives, perverts, communists and other assorted misfits, criminals, and deadbeats. And, many of them are also Lawyers, who through the writing of laws that only lawyers can understand, are perpetuating the incompetency at the highest levels of government as they perpetuate their own legalistic and litigious culture. What America Needs to Hear is Common Sense spoken In Language that anybody can understand, and what Americans need is Good, Honest and Factual Information. Armed with Good Information, Most Americans, in spite of the decades of dumbing down and brainwashing, will make better decisions. The Only Way to Defeat Our Current Government is to Expose This Government and The Criminals and Incompetents that are perpetuating it. And, you do this by Telling The Public The Truth. Americans Can Handle The Truth if give an opportunity to See and Hear the Truth. It is not that most Americans believe the lies they are being told today, it is just that most Americans today, do not trust what anybody says as they have become cynical and believe that They All Lie, so what’s the difference???? Well, the difference is this: We now have a Marxist President who was Elected By An Illiterate Populace who Believed His Lies and Who Voted in a Politically Correct Way as opposed to Having An Incompetent President if we had elected John McCain. But, the difference is that John McCain’s patriotism and love of this nation cannot be questioned, whereas Mr. Obama’s love of this country can be questioned, and should be questioned based on his past and present words and deeds. Some say that in elections, you only select the lesser of 2 evils, but what you wind up with is still Evil. But, I can assure you that given the difference in evils of Obama and McCain, I will pick McCain’s Mamby Pamby Incompetence anyday of the week over Obama’s Direct Subversion and Hatred of the U.S.A. and our standing in the nation, which he seems to be determined to tear down. Thanks–Have a good day. Jerome
Dude! Try a paragraph break once in a while. A Valium or two might help too.
Here he is railing against big government this and that and is likely sitting there in his bunny slippers, lucky he has Medicare to control his diabetes and Social Security to live on. Clueless teabagger.
Here he is foaming at the mouth in his support for Barry Dunham and is likely looking at paying half of his minimum wages to the government in taxes and half as vig on his non-chargeable student loans for the rest of his life. Clueless Petulant Leftie.
Thank God people like yourself still exist. Your knowledge of actual facts is very much appreciated. I agree with you 100%. Remember Islam is our biggest enemy period as well as the idiots we have currently running our Government. We need to dig for our own oil and other energy sources. We need to strive for personal responsibility. God bless you.
We CAN do it!!! This isn’t a question of “Taking Back” American on November 2nd, it’s a question of DEFENDING America on November 2nd. We are defending it from the ravages of a bunch of socialists in Washington who want to transform this government into a European-style nanny state. And they’re not too far from achieving their goals. The Federal Government is broke, more and more people are on the public dole, unemployment is high, taxes are outrageous, and the Federal Government is nationalizing most of the larger industries in this country and has socialized medicine. Time to stop the madness and on November 2nd you’ll get that chance. Vote on November 2nd and defend this country from what these bums want to tranform her into, which is France.
If the Repubs take the House (and even the Senate) thet had better grow some balls and immediately start working to undue the damage obama and company have done. . . this is their last chance with me, if it is more business as usual, it will be third party for me from now on. . . .
Good article. I knew we had good candidates, but I was not aware that we had recruited Batman to run against Ron Klein in Florida. If Adam West wins, maybe we could persuade Bert Ward to run somewhere. And all this time I was sending money to Allen West, whoever he is.
My 24 year old daughter and 26 year old son are voting straight Republican in a very blue Maryland and with thousands of other families out there to talk into bothering to vote in these supposedly “BLUE” states the potential for a turn over in the crooks we have ruling us is pretty good.
The elitists should fear the ticked off silent majority who have not been visible in these blue states before. Like the voters in Massachusetts who came out of nowhere to shock the Democrats in the Kennedy Senate Special election, my bet is that in Maryland a lot of the Obama supporters will assume victory for the local Democrats and stay home. If we can outnumber the ACORN and SEIU voters we could shock them all. There are a lot of us who want real representation. Make sure every friend,relative, grandparent and neighbor get to the polls and vote. We have only this one chance to ensure our continued liberty.
“My 24 year old daughter and 26 year old son are voting straight Republican in a very blue Maryland and with thousands of other families out there to talk into bothering to vote in these supposedly “BLUE” states the potential for a turn over in the crooks we have ruling us is pretty good.”
I earned my Union Thug pin in Merlin politics ground game, (I’m REALLY sorry about Parris Glendenning, but you have to admit that he WAS good for a barrel of laughs…especially when you gave him a handgun with a trigger-lock and the key).
What makes Merlin so Blue is almost entirely the strip of land on 15 miles either side of the median strip on I-95.
If everyone living in that swath of land disappeared into thin air on election day, the joint would turn as red as Indiana or Abalama.
…. “Global warming” hoaxers like to refer to their view of the Earth’s rising temperatures as a hockey stick ….
That is they used to. Until the creator of the “hockey-stick graph,” Michael Mann, the person after whom the fascist fraud, “Mann-made global warming,” was named, was proven to have been a con-Mann and his hockey schtick, a fraud.
I know Batman is on the side of the good guys, but I think you mean Allen West (FL-22) not Adam West. Allen West deserves all the good publicity he can get.
The conservative revolution must result in huge gains in the congress in order to demonstrate to all that America rejects Leftism and Leftists.
Good news/bad news.
Being a huge fan of Stephen Green (Vodkapundit), [even though I am a Scotch drinker]…readers of this article would do well, EXTREMELY well, to pay attention to two of his latest entries.
The first is at Hair of the Dog, a video/PJTV entry that has several very important points made by the likes of Ed Gillespie, George Will and …Steve himself. Steve responds to the whistling past the graveyard line being spewed by Democrats and their Pocket Water Carriers (warning: there’s a Rachel Midol clip highlighting this).
The disingenuous talking points are as follows:
1)We passed all this wonderful stuff, but the dummies don’t understand it and how wonderful we really are;
2)The races are “moving toward the Democrats” as it gets closer to voting time.
If you have not watched George Will succinctly demolish this, you are missing a great treat.
http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=mpg&mpid=115&load=4333
On to the next point: Don’t get cocky.
If a race is within the margin of cheating, including every dirty trick imaginable, it’s not safe. You would not believe what Steve has unearthed today.
In Nevada and North Carolina, the machines are rigged. If you ever played a crooked slot machine in Vegas, you know it can be done. Wait til you read how they are doing it…and anyone who has voted already would have to read this, stop in their tracks and have that exact same feeling you have after you leave the house for a car vacation…and wonder if you turned the water off in the bathroom. Anyone who used a machine and voted early…AND DIDN’T WATCH THE SCREEN…is going to have that feeling.
Take a peek at this one…and hold onto your hats. ACORN, the SEIU, George Soros and the rest of the trick and mistreaters have been planning a ghoulish surprise for anyone wishing to vote for Republicans.
http://pajamasmedia.com/vodkapundit/
If there is *any* choice, DO NOT USE PAPERLESS E-VOTING and especially not internet voting. Use the mark scan cards if available – they can be recounted. The old relay counters are more verifiable than e-voting – the can’t be recounted, but the wires connecting relays to vote buttons are physically visible to election workers (e-voting is entirely invisible and controlled by software), and your vote makes a satisfying “Klunk”. Mail-in ballots are better than e-voting – they can be lost or forged, but at least they can be recounted. E-voting with a visible paper receipt (behind glass – you can’t take it home) at least tells you after the fact that your vote was miscounted – and the receipts can be recounted. Best of all, use optical scan ballots. They can be selectively spoiled (by making additional marks/punches), but are easily counted/recounted both manually and automatically.
It is a travesty (or evil plot) that these non-auditable voting methods are available at all. To minimize the damage, the count from auditable voting methods must be as high as possible. E-voting is EASY TO HACK (especially internet voting).
P.S. Paperless E-voting was introduced by a Republican ex-con.
P.P.S. See verifiedvoting.org – an organization trying to minimize the damage of e-voting.
term limits needs to be thought about. i have been for it when i see people sit around in office forever…doing nothing but getting rich. then i think what of those who do a really good job…shouldn’t they be rewarded with reelection? if people put thought into voting bad representation would be limited. just thinking.