The Battle for America 2010: One Week Out, How Big Will the GOP Wave Be in the House?
The 2010 election is just a week away. In many places, early voting has already started. Up for grabs is control of Congress for the last two years of President Obama’s first term. There is a chance Republicans will gain the majority in both the Senate and the House. At this point, that chance is somewhat remote in the Senate, but Election Projection currently projects Republicans will earn a net 58 congressional districts, 19 more than a majority requires in the House.
Over the last six months, that count has more than doubled as more and more House races across the country have become competitive. In fact, just a month ago, the net GOP gain stood at exactly 39 seats. That’s a lot of movement in short order since then. While some erosion of the president’s party numbers on Capitol Hill can be expected, historically speaking, during midterms, it is these late-risers that will determine the size and scope of the Republican wave of 2010.
Yet identifying all the races where the challenger’s prospects have improved rapidly as we’ve entered the homestretch of the campaign is not easy given the unique circumstances in which we find ourselves this year. At no time in recent memory has the GOP enjoyed generic ballot advantages like we’ve seen this fall. Never has a limited-government grassroots movement taken hold the way the Tea Party has this year. And not since FDR have we had a president whose stated agenda would so alter the role and cost of the federal government.
Clearly, there is a Republican wave out there, but how big will it be? Obi-wan, the Jedi master from a galaxy far, far away whose commentary frequently shows up on Jim Geraghty’s blog at National Review Online, said it best:
Nobody has never seen nothing — and I do mean to use the ungrammatical double negative here — like this. So far, this is not a “wave” election, this is a super-wave election.
And gauging which seats will be caught up in this super wave, especially in the House, can be challenging. The way I see it, we can break these races into three distinct categories. Let’s take a look at them and a couple of example races for each.
The Hockey Stick
Global warming proponents like to refer to their view of the Earth’s rising temperatures as a hockey stick. In their minds, the Earth warmed slightly and slowly for two or three centuries before the mid 1900s and then rapidly since. On a graph, the general trend looks like a hockey stick where the earlier, slower rise is the hockey stick’s handle and the more drastic rise is its foot.
While I don’t espouse the alleged global warming phenomenon, at least not the man-made version, the hockey stick illustration is very useful in describing one type of late-rising House race. These races have been on the radar since the beginning of the election cycle, but weren’t seen as likely takeovers until recently.
A perfect example of a hockey stick race can be found in the most unexpected of places, Massachusetts. The open seat of retiring Democrat Bill Delahunt in District 10 was projected as a competitive Weak DEM Hold at Election Projection all year. Lately, however, there has been movement toward Republican Jeff Perry. An average of two recent polls shows a true toss-up now, and pundits have begun to see the race that way as well. Currently, I’m projecting Perry by a fraction of a percent. That certainly could change by next Tuesday, but this race has to be considered even money for the GOP.
Other seats on the radar that have seen recent upticks in the Republican challengers’ prospects include North Carolina CD-8 and New York CD-20, now projected to go to the GOP, and Maryland CD-1, where long-favored Andy Harris has finally opened up an outside the margin of error lead over Democrat incumbent Frank Kratovil. Also in this list would be Allen West’s race against Ron Klein (FL-22) and David Harmer’s race against Jerry McNerney (CD-11). Both projections have flipped to the Republicans in recent days.
Small correction.
The Republican candidate in Florida’s 22nd District is ALLEN West, not Adam West.
Go Allen!
Yeah, but who wouldn’t want to see Batman in the House?
“To the Bat-conference chamber, Robin. We haven’t one moment to lose!”
Yes, and you can bet LTC Allen West will not refer to Ahmadinejad as “old chum,” and he would view any increased government spending as “a fate worse than death.”
But he might replace AF1 with the Bat-plane; and the jury is still out on wearing a Bat-utility belt.
Would love to see Batman take down the Joker in the White House.
Art of War and Warfare:
I received an email from a conservative friend of mine who lives in the People’s Republic of California and he was discussing the current administration and their bungling diplomacies, etc. and discussing chess as a game to plan war strategies, etc. I responded to my good friend with the following and entitled it the Art Of Warfare:
Exactly Doc–First of all, if you find it necessary to go to war, you then have to have as your goal, winning the war. Then, you make a plan. Then, you implement your plan. If your plan is not working, regroup and figure out why said plan did not work, and then make necessary adjustments to said plan, and act on it. And like in any planning, only scrap what does not work, keep what was working well, and then get on with the plan until your goal is achieved. If your original assessment was that war was not only the right thing to do and thus necessary, then you owe it to the cause of good and to your soldiers and to your citizens and allies to achieve the goal of defeating the enemy you found it necessary to go to war with to begin with. And, to date, in history, no wars that involved the forces of perceived good and evil, has the war been won with words and diplomacy. Diplomacy comes after you have defeated your enemy and you let the enemy know what his future rules of civility are going to be if you have any vested interest and right to be involved with his country to begin with. And, if what you are telling the enemy what his rules of civility are going to be, you have to be sure that what those rules are, are acceptable to what the majority of the citizens of said nation want. And, if you do not have the people on your side, maybe you should not be there to begin with, unless the only way to keep the nation from being an aggressor is to occupy them and keep them in check. And, with a place like the middle east where you have Muslim Regimes, who have 20th and 21st century technologies and 10th century BC mentalities, you either have to take away their technologies or capabilities of using said technologies when it comes to warfare technologies. Or, if you are not willing to do this, then you must make sure that you keep their leaders in Check to insure that they will never use those technologies against their neighbors or against any other non-aggressor nation. If the war in Iraq was necessary, then it is our responsibility now to stay in the area long enough to finish the job in the region and that may require the permanent occupation of Iraq with permanent bases to keep the Iranians and other hostiles in perpetual Check Mate. In the meantime, if part of our reason for being there is OIL because we need it, then we need to lessen the need for their oil by extracting and using our own oil which, according to our own geologists, we have plenty of it. And, as a nation, we cannot allow a group of enviro-whack jobs who have their own personalized goals and beliefs and agendas to keep us from extracting our own energy resources wherever those resources are located. And, also, when the enviro-whack jobs are endangering national security, these whack jobs need to be investigated and see which of our other enemies are they either knowingly or unknowingly colluding with. The Liberal Mindset in this country at the highest levels of power is the greatest national security threat this nation faces. And, many of them are knowingly colluding with our enemies, while, I am sure that most of them are just unknowing and ignorant pawns who go along to get along for their own selfish needs for power and approval of the powers that be. Looking at the makeup of our congress, I have never seen such an amassed group of fools and incompetents, who are able to wield so much power with an unlimited Checking Account. The current makeup of our leadership in this country is the biggest assortment of fools, lunatics, incompetents, criminals, subversives, perverts and enemy spies that I have ever witnessed. You could not plan and implement a More Perfect Storm for Disaster than what we have assembled in our government today. And, if we do not recognize this current congress and president for what and who they are, and remove them at the ballot box, and then begin to Down Size their Powers and the Abilities for them to Make another Mess of the sort they have already created, our days as a free an sovereign people living in a free and sovereign nation are numbered. This current government and it’s leadership are in bed with our enemies and in some cases, our enemies are already in positions of power in our government. The downsizing of government is absolutely necessary, and by downsizing, I mean the elimination of some of the major Agencies, Bureaus, Commissions, and Departments that do no good at all and in fact, are doing great harm to our country. And, along with these Major Unconstitutional ABCD’s of Bureaucracy, you eliminate the thousands of Tentacles of these major Bureaucracies that are spread out all over the nation like a massive root ball in a potted plant when the plant outgrows the pot. The major war we now face as a nation is the war at home. And, the citizenry of this nation have to be awakened and educated to the fact that our current government is beyond incompetent, they are criminally and suicidally incompetent. And, if we do not Win The War at home, we will continue to play into the hands of our enemies, and we will deliver the weapons and tools that our enemies will take and then destroy us and our allies with. This is the case in the middle east now. Iran is still using technologies that we gave them. The Iran we have today is the creation of Feel Good Incompetents in this government, both present and past. You can go back to Jimmy Carter, who was another incompetent warm and fuzzy president who had drank the communist kool-aid, and see how his policies put the Islamic Lunatics in power who toppled the Shah who was the head of an elected and civilized society. And, you can mark Jimmy Carter’s Presidency as the Beginning of this Islamic Terrorist War that we are still fighting today. Today, we can win the war at home with words that educate and awaken The Masses of Americans who are ignorant and are kept that way by our MSM, Hollywood, Politicians and the Public Schools. We have to end the Official Brainwashing, Lying and Propaganda Campaigns that have been waged on this country by our very so-called leaders, and tell folks what is really going on. It is my firm belief as an educator, that people make much better decisions when they are armed with the truth and good information. Mostly what the citizens of our country are being fed today are Lies, Propaganda, and Dis-Information, and it is my belief that the majority of these Lies, Propaganda and Dis-Information is being disseminated purposely by Our Leaders and the MSM and Hollywood is providing the Megaphone to Broadcast these Lies, Propaganda and Dis-Information. And, the majority of the citizens, are merely pawns who have Bought The Lies and believe the lies to be truths, and therefore are making daily decisions based on what they believe to be facts, when in fact, they have been lied to deliberately and dumbed down deliberately by the powers that be. The Liberal Democrats and other Nefarious Enemies of our Freedoms know the level of ignorance and illiteracy that exists in the USA today, because they have purposely engineered this dumbing down and brainwashing campaign over the past 4 decades, and they Prey On This Ignorance, thus the Election of the Likes of Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Barney Frank, Al Cee Hastings, John Lewis, Barbara Boxer, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and the rest of the Capitol Hill Gang of thugs, thieves, subversives, perverts, communists and other assorted misfits, criminals, and deadbeats. And, many of them are also Lawyers, who through the writing of laws that only lawyers can understand, are perpetuating the incompetency at the highest levels of government as they perpetuate their own legalistic and litigious culture. What America Needs to Hear is Common Sense spoken In Language that anybody can understand, and what Americans need is Good, Honest and Factual Information. Armed with Good Information, Most Americans, in spite of the decades of dumbing down and brainwashing, will make better decisions. The Only Way to Defeat Our Current Government is to Expose This Government and The Criminals and Incompetents that are perpetuating it. And, you do this by Telling The Public The Truth. Americans Can Handle The Truth if give an opportunity to See and Hear the Truth. It is not that most Americans believe the lies they are being told today, it is just that most Americans today, do not trust what anybody says as they have become cynical and believe that They All Lie, so what’s the difference???? Well, the difference is this: We now have a Marxist President who was Elected By An Illiterate Populace who Believed His Lies and Who Voted in a Politically Correct Way as opposed to Having An Incompetent President if we had elected John McCain. But, the difference is that John McCain’s patriotism and love of this nation cannot be questioned, whereas Mr. Obama’s love of this country can be questioned, and should be questioned based on his past and present words and deeds. Some say that in elections, you only select the lesser of 2 evils, but what you wind up with is still Evil. But, I can assure you that given the difference in evils of Obama and McCain, I will pick McCain’s Mamby Pamby Incompetence anyday of the week over Obama’s Direct Subversion and Hatred of the U.S.A. and our standing in the nation, which he seems to be determined to tear down. Thanks–Have a good day. Jerome
Dude! Try a paragraph break once in a while. A Valium or two might help too.
Here he is railing against big government this and that and is likely sitting there in his bunny slippers, lucky he has Medicare to control his diabetes and Social Security to live on. Clueless teabagger.
Here he is foaming at the mouth in his support for Barry Dunham and is likely looking at paying half of his minimum wages to the government in taxes and half as vig on his non-chargeable student loans for the rest of his life. Clueless Petulant Leftie.
Thank God people like yourself still exist. Your knowledge of actual facts is very much appreciated. I agree with you 100%. Remember Islam is our biggest enemy period as well as the idiots we have currently running our Government. We need to dig for our own oil and other energy sources. We need to strive for personal responsibility. God bless you.
We CAN do it!!! This isn’t a question of “Taking Back” American on November 2nd, it’s a question of DEFENDING America on November 2nd. We are defending it from the ravages of a bunch of socialists in Washington who want to transform this government into a European-style nanny state. And they’re not too far from achieving their goals. The Federal Government is broke, more and more people are on the public dole, unemployment is high, taxes are outrageous, and the Federal Government is nationalizing most of the larger industries in this country and has socialized medicine. Time to stop the madness and on November 2nd you’ll get that chance. Vote on November 2nd and defend this country from what these bums want to tranform her into, which is France.
If the Repubs take the House (and even the Senate) thet had better grow some balls and immediately start working to undue the damage obama and company have done. . . this is their last chance with me, if it is more business as usual, it will be third party for me from now on. . . .
Good article. I knew we had good candidates, but I was not aware that we had recruited Batman to run against Ron Klein in Florida. If Adam West wins, maybe we could persuade Bert Ward to run somewhere. And all this time I was sending money to Allen West, whoever he is.
My 24 year old daughter and 26 year old son are voting straight Republican in a very blue Maryland and with thousands of other families out there to talk into bothering to vote in these supposedly “BLUE” states the potential for a turn over in the crooks we have ruling us is pretty good.
The elitists should fear the ticked off silent majority who have not been visible in these blue states before. Like the voters in Massachusetts who came out of nowhere to shock the Democrats in the Kennedy Senate Special election, my bet is that in Maryland a lot of the Obama supporters will assume victory for the local Democrats and stay home. If we can outnumber the ACORN and SEIU voters we could shock them all. There are a lot of us who want real representation. Make sure every friend,relative, grandparent and neighbor get to the polls and vote. We have only this one chance to ensure our continued liberty.
“My 24 year old daughter and 26 year old son are voting straight Republican in a very blue Maryland and with thousands of other families out there to talk into bothering to vote in these supposedly “BLUE” states the potential for a turn over in the crooks we have ruling us is pretty good.”
I earned my Union Thug pin in Merlin politics ground game, (I’m REALLY sorry about Parris Glendenning, but you have to admit that he WAS good for a barrel of laughs…especially when you gave him a handgun with a trigger-lock and the key).
What makes Merlin so Blue is almost entirely the strip of land on 15 miles either side of the median strip on I-95.
If everyone living in that swath of land disappeared into thin air on election day, the joint would turn as red as Indiana or Abalama.
…. “Global warming” hoaxers like to refer to their view of the Earth’s rising temperatures as a hockey stick ….
That is they used to. Until the creator of the “hockey-stick graph,” Michael Mann, the person after whom the fascist fraud, “Mann-made global warming,” was named, was proven to have been a con-Mann and his hockey schtick, a fraud.
I know Batman is on the side of the good guys, but I think you mean Allen West (FL-22) not Adam West. Allen West deserves all the good publicity he can get.
The conservative revolution must result in huge gains in the congress in order to demonstrate to all that America rejects Leftism and Leftists.
Good news/bad news.
Being a huge fan of Stephen Green (Vodkapundit), [even though I am a Scotch drinker]…readers of this article would do well, EXTREMELY well, to pay attention to two of his latest entries.
The first is at Hair of the Dog, a video/PJTV entry that has several very important points made by the likes of Ed Gillespie, George Will and …Steve himself. Steve responds to the whistling past the graveyard line being spewed by Democrats and their Pocket Water Carriers (warning: there’s a Rachel Midol clip highlighting this).
The disingenuous talking points are as follows:
1)We passed all this wonderful stuff, but the dummies don’t understand it and how wonderful we really are;
2)The races are “moving toward the Democrats” as it gets closer to voting time.
If you have not watched George Will succinctly demolish this, you are missing a great treat.
http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=mpg&mpid=115&load=4333
On to the next point: Don’t get cocky.
If a race is within the margin of cheating, including every dirty trick imaginable, it’s not safe. You would not believe what Steve has unearthed today.
In Nevada and North Carolina, the machines are rigged. If you ever played a crooked slot machine in Vegas, you know it can be done. Wait til you read how they are doing it…and anyone who has voted already would have to read this, stop in their tracks and have that exact same feeling you have after you leave the house for a car vacation…and wonder if you turned the water off in the bathroom. Anyone who used a machine and voted early…AND DIDN’T WATCH THE SCREEN…is going to have that feeling.
Take a peek at this one…and hold onto your hats. ACORN, the SEIU, George Soros and the rest of the trick and mistreaters have been planning a ghoulish surprise for anyone wishing to vote for Republicans.
http://pajamasmedia.com/vodkapundit/
If there is *any* choice, DO NOT USE PAPERLESS E-VOTING and especially not internet voting. Use the mark scan cards if available – they can be recounted. The old relay counters are more verifiable than e-voting – the can’t be recounted, but the wires connecting relays to vote buttons are physically visible to election workers (e-voting is entirely invisible and controlled by software), and your vote makes a satisfying “Klunk”. Mail-in ballots are better than e-voting – they can be lost or forged, but at least they can be recounted. E-voting with a visible paper receipt (behind glass – you can’t take it home) at least tells you after the fact that your vote was miscounted – and the receipts can be recounted. Best of all, use optical scan ballots. They can be selectively spoiled (by making additional marks/punches), but are easily counted/recounted both manually and automatically.
It is a travesty (or evil plot) that these non-auditable voting methods are available at all. To minimize the damage, the count from auditable voting methods must be as high as possible. E-voting is EASY TO HACK (especially internet voting).
P.S. Paperless E-voting was introduced by a Republican ex-con.
P.P.S. See verifiedvoting.org – an organization trying to minimize the damage of e-voting.
term limits needs to be thought about. i have been for it when i see people sit around in office forever…doing nothing but getting rich. then i think what of those who do a really good job…shouldn’t they be rewarded with reelection? if people put thought into voting bad representation would be limited. just thinking.