The Battle for America 2010: How Big a Wave for the GOP in November?
For the first time this election season, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) survey of the 435 U.S House races shows Republicans leading in more contests (203) than Democrats (199), with control of the House dependent on 33 races currently labeled as tossups.
The RCP survey suggests that 108 of the Democrats’ 256 seats are at risk, while only 15 of the Republicans’ 179 House seats are in play. If one removes seats that RCP believes are competitive but likely to be retained by the party currently in control, 86 Democratic-held seats and only seven Republican-held seats are in play. With a net shift of 39 required to give the Republicans control of the House, and the generic ballot polling showing the biggest leads for the GOP in the cycle (several in the 6-7% range, Rasmussen at 12%), it is not hard to see why many analysts are increasing their estimates of the size of the potential Republican gains.
Charles Cook now believes it is likely the GOP will win back control of he House, perhaps with a comfortable majority. Prior to the 2006 midterm elections, the GOP held 232 House seats, so the party suffered a decline of 53 net seats in the last two national elections. In 2004, President Bush won 255 House districts in his re-election race. That number may represent the high-water potential for the party in a real blowout election wave, given the current districts in place in the states for the final time this decade, prior to the reallocation of the 435 House seats among the states and within the states for the 2012 cycle.
The generic ballot polls, while favorable to the GOP, represent a national summary of preference for the House between the two parties and understate the GOP advantage this year in individual House races. The creation of dozens of black majority districts after the 1990 census served to concentrate African American voters (who routinely vote about 90% for Democrats) into these districts, removing a strong Democratic voting group from surrounding districts — many of which fell to the GOP in 1994 by small margins.
This pattern was particularly evident in the Southern states with high African American percentages of the population: Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia, as well as some suburban districts in other states. The Democrats won some of these seats back in 2006 and 2008, but several are likely to fall to the GOP this year.
Taking back control of the Senate will be a much a tougher challenge for the GOP. With the Democrats holding a 59-41 lead, the Republicans would need to win ten net seats. This assumes that Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, who won re-election in 2006 as an independent after his defeat in the Democratic primary, chooses to remain an independent caucusing with the Democrats after 2010. Lieberman is very likely to have a Democratic opponent in 2012 and could run as a Republican.
There will be a tsunami taking place in November, and the Democrats should be prepared for some major defeats. But we should keep up the pressure and not just assume the Democrats will lose. Keep up the momentum and show up in November at the voting booths. If we can do that, it could be a huge victory and some sanity could return to Washington. Are all the Republican candidates great? Of course not, but it’s a start and it certainly is better than the alternative, which is sending more liberal Democrats to Washington to keep the Pelosi/Reid agenda going. Stay angry, show up, and vote. Be counted and they WILL hear us in November.
Roll on November!
I said it once before in a comment in PJM and I’ll say it again: DO NOT count your chickens before they’re hatched. It is still a long way off to election day, and the Democrats are not stupid. Regretfully, the Republicans do not have a unifying theme as they did in 1994. Running against Obama and his policies may just be insufficient for the voting public. So don’t be surprised if you wake up the day after the election sorely disappointed.
Articles like this keep raising the bar for “victory.” At the rate things are going failing to take both the House and Senate, with a veto-proof majority in the Senate, will be a “Victory” for the Democrats and the “Obama Agenda.”
It also doesn’t help that the ‘Pubbies have failed to nationalize the election and present a national platform. Democrats know what they stand for. What the heck do ‘Pubbies stand for?
Why don’t we believe that the voters can assert what THEY stand for and that their position will result in a defeat for the democrats? Are we, again, assuming that Americans are too stupid to understand what’s at stake?
Personally, I don’t want another “Contract for America.” I’ve always thought our Constitution filled that need. It really, really irritates me that (apparently) elections are governed by marketing and packaging alone. The assumption, I guess, is still that voters need someone to tell them how to vote.
Depressing.
Unfortunately we can not take for granted that Americans are not that stupid. However I feel better than many about this year,s elections than many. I believe that the normal political equations for instance money ratios are not as absolute in their effects as is usually the case. Merely retaking the House slows the Social Democrats but isn’t the saving victory we need. Not taking the Senate will not be an epic defeat but it won’t be the victory we need to start reversing the 111th. If we don’t elect Sharon Angle and Rand Paul that won’t be epic defeat either but it will indicate limits to how far back Americans want the welfare state pushed. The fact that these two candidates are considered at the edges is what makes their elections crucial. If Americans gets scared off by Angle or Rand Paul we can’t fix what’s broke.
As Abraham Lincoln said: ” The wise hen does not cackle until the egg is hatched.”
Please remember that these polls fail to canvas the dead in the cemeteries, the felons and the illegal immigrants, all of whom vote 100% Democratic. There will be no Republican landslide after these votes are found in the trunks of cars nationwide.
Bingo Bill. The Dems have plenty of fraud left to play in the various races. Wash state-Murray will win just like the Gov when she stole the race with newly found votes…. All that slush money waiting for 2012 called stimulus funds will be used to buy votes. And we the stupid American public just lap it up.
Even if we “win” the Congress and the Senate, we will be impotent to do anything against Dear Leader and his minions in the MSM. We’ve been down this road before.
And if they retain the Senate and we fail, and we will, to get DLs programs rolled back, we will be called obstructionist and radicals by the left and they will win back the Congress in 2012 plus DL will be crowned Ceasar. We are DOOMED. Guys like McLame, Collins and Snoweblind will help the left go further than they have in this first administration under Dear Leader.
Hey what about people like me who might take their money and still vote out their goofy candidate?
If that is the case, we need to sharpen our axes.
great point. long live Duvall County in Texas for Lyndon in ..what?…’48?and Cook County for Kennedy in ’60. The Dems have a lock on the dead.
But what is the GOP going to do with the victory the Democrats are handing them? That’s my concern.
Slowing the rate of bleeding isn’t good enough. The GOP track record on inaction, fecklessness, and political cowardice has me worried that our slide into the abyss will not be reversed when the Democrats are rightly kicked out of office.
I agree, rearranging the deck chairs is useless.
I want the size of government cut at least 20% for starters and a constitutional convention so that new amendments can be drafted that will restrict all three branches of govt’s power.If the Repubs get the majority, the convention should be called. Roosevelt, Johnson, Bush and Obama and their conspirators in Congress show that the govt. is out of control with capitalism and liberty under seige. It is time to change that permanently. Jefferson would be profoundly disgusted with the state our nation is in today.
Is the military going to be authorized to step in and guard the polls against the Chicago machine and all the other gangsters the regime has in place to thwart the intimidation and illegal goings on that occurred at in last national election cycle? Have the problems with the Armed Forces ballots been solved and a solution for their votes being counted?
Is this where the eeyores meet?
This is where we decide whether to baste the emma in red wine reduction or slow pit the emma to tenderize it.
I agree with RJE, Samizdat, et al. …
Know what would be REALLY USEFUL? Rather than the 343rd article on how the GOP is poised to sweep November on some level – which everyone already knows (including the Democrats) – how about floating some ideas for holding the GOP accountable for its actions TO DATE? You know… the ones that led to an economy-destroying Congressional Democrat majority in 2006 and a Republic-destroying President in 2008?
The left did not get hold of this Republic by the throat by being idiots. They can see just as well as anyone else the coming downturn in the economy. Spending by the largest generation in history – the Baby Boom generation – is going to be trailing off sharply as these people move into middle age & retirement. That means an extended economic contraction, no matter what.
The left’s strategy is now becoming crystal clear:
- firebomb the economy while falsely blaming “Bush”, “the previous administration” and “eight years of failed policies” for every problem;
- jack up the GDP temporarily by pumping hundreds of billions in debt into the economy;
- express hysterical moral outrage at ANY suggestion that our problems began with the advent of the Congressional Democrat majority in 2007, and that the credit meltdown was a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Democrats’ affirmative action attacks on the financial industry;
- force the economy to contract almost to the breaking point through tax increases, socialized medicine mandates, cap-and-tax, et al., knowing that the public’s reaction will be to mindlessly swing the political pendulum back to the GOP;
- watch gleefully as the second, deeper, extended half of the recession hits after the fake, federal-debt-driven “recovery”;
- hammer relentlessly via The Left Wing Media that the Congressional Republicans “destroyed the recovery and now things are ten times worse”.
Go ahead and watch – see if this doesn’t happen in exactly this way.
We need to start coming up with ways to deal with this now, or 2012 will see re-election of this fascist administration and a resurgence of Congressional Democrats… and the end of the Republic as we know it. The GOP is playing their standard game, and that’s not going to cut it. They have played RE-active politics for too long and that doesn’t work anymore. They need to lead, follow or get out of the way. Guys like Paul Ryan, Thad McCotter and Chris Christie are the sort of leaders we must have to turn this ship around. Has-beens like Gingrich and GOP tools like Romney, McCain and even “T-Paw” aren’t going to do it.
Jack in Silver Spring:
And this morning the news indicates that Goofy McCain after spending $20 Mil will be returned to the Senate where he will immediately do another about face and return to his work of “comprehensive immigration reform” and “Global Taxation”, shoulder to shoulder with his pal, Barack Hussein Obama, as they together carry on God’s work.
And the ever evolving Charlie Crist will move from the governor’s chair in Florida to a seat in the Senate, next to McCain, or maybe the one stolen from Norm Coleman, the “fighter” by Al Franken, the “joker”. Marco Rubio? He too had a dream.
“Keep hope alive”. So says Jessie Jackson. And that’s all there is left.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/_We_re-not-the-other-guys_-isn_t-good-enough_-GOP-534714-101266744.html
Here’s the result: 41 seats in the House. 6 seats in the Senate. Any potential gains beyond that will be lost due to Tea Party extremism and the hysteria of the right wing media. (Yes, we’ve been paying attention.)
Gee Whiz, you guys, have a little faith why don’t you. If not in God or the American people, then at least have faith that Democrats aren’t the only people with smart strategists working on victory.
For starters, don’t be fooled by all the negative predictions about the economy. People aren’t used to slow growth, so they keep oscillating between thinking the economy is about to take off in to a normal recovery or go off a cliff. Hence the wild gyrations in the stock market. Mark my words, it won’t happen that way- slow to nonexistent growth and an awful job market is the most likely outcome. In perhaps another year, things will start to get better largely of their own accord. Remember, the US has a growing population unlike Europe, and we will fill up all those houses sooner rather than later. Of course, Congress could fail to extend any of the tax cuts if they can’t reach agreement- and that sort of tax bomb really would screw things up big time. But my prediction is that at least the middle class tax cuts will be extended, which is probably good enough. Really, Republicans have an advantage in the tax debate scheduled for September- something has to get passed, and there is bipartisan support for extending all the tax cuts. My prediction is the compromise will temporarily extend all the tax cuts for two years, letting the Democrats at least save some face, while Republicans bet they’re in control of everything by then.
Secondly, who says we need a unifying theme besides opposition? Polls in 1994 showed very few voters were even aware of the existence of the Contract for America, much less what was in it. These sorts of things are really just tools to help Republican politicians think about how to present a consistent governing vision that they can communicate to their voters in their own particular way. The Democrats have nationalized the election for us, and people are not going to forget the big 3: stimulus, cap and trade, health care. The real worry is not this election, but the next one: Republicans need to make sure that people do not forget about all this crap in 2012.
Remember the welfare reform bill in 1996, that Clinton actually signed? It was brilliant legislative strategy to paint him as an extreme liberal obstructionist, except it didn’t work because Clinton had no real principles. The key is not to repeat the mistakes of the Gingrich Congress- most of all don’t shut down the government or impeach high ranking officials, especially the President. Be content with small bore symbolic measures, stopping the Democrat’s agenda, and stopping the increase in spending, especially Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, auto and pension bailouts, big-spending state bailouts (aka “stimulus”), and TARP. Realize that we won’t yet control the entire government, so our power to act is limited. Then, in 2012, remind voters of why they voted out all those Democrats by passing bills in the House that will never become law. Since they won’t become law, stuff them full of things that voters like: for instance, on health care repeal the mandate and the death panels, but not the coverage for dependents and those with pre-existing conditions. A combination of poison pills that Democrats can’t allow and stuff that voters really like- do it on energy, health care, and tax reform.
And remember, even the Administration’s own Christina Romer thinks unemployment will be over 8% at the end of 2012. I don’t see any path to an Obama reelection with unemployment that high and Congress encouraging the tendency he already has to be on the wrong side of every issue.
As for the polls, there is no reason to think things will get better for Democrats by election day 2010 and every reason to think things will get worse- a shaky economy, a loser tax debate, and big outside spending that equalizes the playing field (see http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41272.html ). And remember- the polls are biased against us, and undecideds usually flip by large margins to the challenger. The media? Constantly decreasing in influence. Fraud? Always been a problem, nothing new there. My prediction: A reversal of numbers in the House, and Republicans pick up all 12 seats mentioned in this article. Heck, even Charlie Cook has us picking up the House, and he’s always very conservative in his predictions.
We all can’t wait for November- and that’s a good thing! Be optimistic, it disheartens the Democrats, people want to vote for winners and optimists, and there is no such thing as jinxes! Give money if you can, volunteer if you can’t, and don’t forget your local candidates cause even if you are traditionally represented by a Democrat, chances are they could be in trouble this year. And don’t forget to contribute however you can to your state candidates cause reapportionment is up this year, and that’s how we cement all the amazing things that are going to happen this decade!
Don’t forget, its morning in America: This could be bigger than the Reagan revolution if we all pull together.
And check out my blog for more at http://elaboratepredictions.wordpress.com I’ve got a few more posts on the coming changes baking in the oven right now.
Very well put David Jones. I would only add a few general observations.
First, never forget that the MSM has two motivations concerning diverting attention, one overt and the other subliminal. The media ALWAYS promots every election cycle as a horse race because that is what attracks viewers – and – remember who it is that profits most from our for profit elections. The twenty million John Mcshamnesty has spent to buy his legacy senate seat was the true media market stimulus here in Phoenix. While his tawdry spending spree is disguisting enough – glance at what folks like Meg Whitman are spending.
And yet some pundit popeye’s are still trying to sell the public that Dems will have a decisive money advantage in this cycle? It’s bunk. Just like the last Prez cycle set spending records – this congressional cycle will as well – mark my words. Literally everywhere I look I see a helicopter Ben like carnival going on. This recession has undoubtably skipped political spending.
SPEAKING OF CARNY ACTS; The second subliminal is that everyone EXCEPT THOSE WHO WORK THERE recognize the MSM tilts so far left that they can grab their own ankles and kiss their own arse anytime they please. And since being besotted with Obama from the beginning you can factor UP the normal lean by a power of 10.
So anytime I HEAR ONE WORD of advice or observation that I believe is important – I LOOK FOR ANOTHER THREE SOURCES – NET/PRINT/TV – before truely buying it myself. It’s the old Reagan principle when dealing with the Soviets – ‘trust but verify.’
The final observation is that conservatives are poised to have their BEST SINGLE ELECTION CYCLE AT THE STATE LEVEL IN THE LAST 100 YEARS! Just think about that for a moment. Let it sink in, savor it, and find comfort in the storm there.
One among the many reasons that Reagan was a transformational president is that he began a shift towards conservatism at the state level. A complete 180 degree flip by the time he left office. It signified the end of the New Deal thru Great Society remnantes – some 60 + years of dominance. And just as he wasn’t given full credit for finalizing the cold war until he was gone and the Berlin Wall came down in ’89, the real credit for Gingrich and the Pub’s coming in ’94 belongs to him as well. In essence it took Reagan some fifteen years to build it – and by the ’06 cycle – Bush had it crumbling.
Those State Governments that were once overwhelmingly in the Republican column had turned into a rough parity by Obama’s election. To emphasize just how the country has rejected Obama’s statism/keynsian economic revival – these elections are now projecting again back to Republicans.
I submit that bolsters just what David Jones says – and repudiates what we all are hearing in the media; that the Republicans (at something like 24% approvial ‘lower than even the Democrates’)have failed to promote a ‘contract with America’ focal point and thus are in danger of missing the oppertunity the Democrates present.
Since I’ve read that many folks like Charlie Cook see 24-27 Governorships headed Republican, and statehouses, even if to a less dramatic degree, headed that way also, it prompts a very important question.
How come nobody is predicting any possible ‘upstream’ vote going the same way? Why shouldn’t Republicans benifit from this momentum?
The cynic in me is almost ready to conclude the only rational reason nobody mentions it is because a MSM overwhelmingly populated with those sympathetic to progressive liberals are disinclined to so speculate, since it would basically constitute sleeping with the enemy. Sorta like joining the Journolist without the perks and all the potential liabilities.
I could be wrong, as could David Jones, but I’m not buying it. Obama and Pelosi chose to govern by pushing a far left adgenda down the countries throat – Just like LBJ from ’65-’68. Thankfully thus far, despite the bogus claims of bigotry and malevalence, the Tea Party hasn’t set the Northeast on fire via riots – as the country suffered the last time around.
Instead we have people like Michelle Bachman forming a new Tea Party Caucus, and the movement in general leading the charge to HOPE AND CHANGE from within the system.
They will put Pelosi in her place, as a minority-leader tit mouse from the left coast with little power other than to bitch and moan, before taking (hopefully soon) a lucrative posting in some think tank or an organization like Bill Clinton’s global busybodies.
And as David Jones says at the end, Republicans will inherit the responsiblity to fix this economy and turn O-man into a 1 term Affirmative Action pain in the kiester.
“No Man’s life liberty or property is safe while the legislature is in session”.
Mark Twain
I say put ‘em all on a long vacation where they can do no more harm. I know I feel a lot safer now that Obama is on his 9th vacation this year. Gee whiz, folks, the year is barely half done and he’s already had 9 major holidays, do you suppose he can be persuaded to take another 8 vacation before Christmas?
I am also worried about what the republicans will do if they achieve a great victory. If RINOS like McCain are still elected, we will have more of the same and the Dems will then have the power to blame the republicans. They have no basis to blame the republicans (althought they do) because the demoncraps have full control. If and when the republicans win, they MUST do a complete about face and move forward to plans that work–less gov’t; protection of our borders; and the allienable duty to protect us from enemies both foreign and domestic.
The only real question is whether this country will throw off the yoke of big government socialism? I say no. Most of the people in this country already think as collectivists. There will never be any political will to reduce the size of government. These Republicans have no idea what to do to stop the Social Democrats. Another attempt at a revolution will also be squashed by the biggest government in the history of the world. Get ready for terrible worldwide despotism…. We are already Borg.
Well, how many incumbents have lost their primaries? (So far, there have been approximately 325 such contests do far.) How many? Seven. Four Republicans and three Democrats.
Yes. But don’t forget — several incumbents chose not to run because they believed they would lose in the primary or the general. Those are not counted in your statistics.
Also, you are only counting at the federal level. In some states the turnover has been very high. To take a single state as an example, in Nevada almost HALF of the seats are being turned over to newcomers.
The challenger in Colorado against Michael Bennett is Ken Buck, not John. He’s endorsed by Jim DeMint and his Senate Conservatives Fund is raising funds for him, so he does have a pretty good shot of winning. Let’s hope so. Give DeMint some backup in the Senate, and they can get some good things done.
4. Bill N
Please remember that these polls fail to canvas the dead in the cemeteries, the felons and the illegal immigrants, all of whom vote 100% Democratic. There will be no Republican landslide after these votes are found in the trunks of cars nationwide.
Which brings up a question that needs if possible to be carefully considered before the fact and not afterwards. What do we do if the election is blatantly stolen? With a government that has no legitimacy [and recent polling indicates that already only about 1/4 of the population believes we are ruled with the "consent of the governed"]; to accept it as a fait accompli and do nothing is to submit to tyranny and discard the Constitution. What is an Oathkeeper to do? What is anyone who is a citizen rather than a subject to do.
There is a saying, that starts with the words “Prior Planning Prevents”.
Subotai Bahadur
Bingo. I expect an unexpected Democratic victory in November.
Why?
Massive voter fraud. Just read the post on how Obama stole the presidency.
We are, to put it politely, screwed.
It’s going to be like Venezuela, where Hugo gets 99.8% of the vote.
Or like the good old days in Iraq, when Obama’s namesake was in power.