The Battle for America 2010: Six Days from the Reckoning
FLORIDA
Key Races: Governor, U.S. Senate
Florida politics went national this week as Rick Scott (R) and state CFO Alex Sink (D) battled it out for the governor’s mansion in a debate hosted by CNN on Monday. The outcome: A Sink staffer gets fired for breaking the rules, by trying to coach the Democratic candidate from the sidelines.
After a long campaign season of tight polling numbers between the two candidates, Scott is widening the gap coming out of last week’s debate, with 50% support to Sink’s 44%, according to the latest Rasmussen survey.
A Zogby/Naples Daily News poll last week, however, shows Sink with a sudden lead over Scott, 43.1% to 38.5%, in a survey of 802 likely voters.
So has Sink’s self-promoted eleven newspaper endorsements to Scott’s zero held sway with voters, or will Scott’s accusation that Sink is a follower of “Obama math” and a “Tallahassee insider” resonate?
The two will continue to bombard the airwaves with negative attacks during the final push this week in the wake of star-studded rallies throughout the Sunshine State by the likes of Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin, as well as others.
Did Sunday’s debate on CNN bridge the gap between candidates in the hotly contested U.S. Senate race between Republican Marco Rubio, independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek? The latest poll numbers prior to that showdown showed Rubio holding a steady lead with 43% to Crist’s 32% and Meek trailing behind with 20%.
The atmosphere going into the final push remains one of “anti-establishment” and “anti-incumbent,” giving so-called outsiders a better chance than ever to take seats. No one knows the threat better than current Governor Charlie Crist, as he tries to separate himself from “establishment” by changing from Republican to independent, apparently with little success in terms of numbers thus far.
Florida’s early voting began on October 18 and unofficial results run the gamut amongst numerous news sources, some citing “surprising” results for Democrats and others touting early signs of much talked about Republican victories. No truly reliable numbers exist and the state Supervisor of Elections site doesn’t publish results in the middle of voting, so for real results, voters will just have to watch, vote, and wait. The final week is sure to be a battle to the finish.
ILLINOIS
Key Race: U.S. Senate
Bill Baar reporting:
Polls are showing a break starting towards Republican Mark Kirk over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois’s U.S. Senate race. Real Clear Politics’ rolling average found Kirk up 2.8. The lead is still within the margin of error of 3 or 4 points, but all the polls are breaking towards the GOP. “Mob Banker” frames and negative ads might finely have found target.
The Chicago Tribune’s poll of 700 registered likely voters released Monday showed Kirk up 3 points over Giannoulias at 44% to 40%. The Green Party’s LeAlan Jones claimed 5% support and Libertarian Mike Labno another 4%, so the potential spoilers have been counted.
One impact of negative campaigning has been solidifying GOP support around Kirk despite Kirk’s moderate stands on social issues (consider Tamara Holder’s “Republicans beware: Mark Kirk is a liberal” an example of Democrats getting too clever for their own good pushing the Libertarian candidate as an alternative — and spoiler– to conservative voters). The Trib found:
Though Giannoulias and Democrats have sought to mock those positions [Kirk’s moderation], they have only engendered more support for Kirk in his own party. Republicans who said they’re going to vote for Kirk jumped from 76 percent to 86 percent since the last poll.
Worse, that mockery may help Kirk with the demographic deciding the race. From the Trib’s polling:
…the two men each have the support of 43 percent of a key voting demographic: white suburban women who tend to be social moderates.
The Chicago Sun-Time’s Carol Marin is one very liberal member in the left chunk of that demographic and she’s been looking at early voting patterns in Cook County. They’ve got her scared:
…look at early voting, for instance, and the fact that for the first time since its inception, the suburbs are surpassing the city in turnout. In some cases, the ratio is 3-1.
“I’m not seeing the early voting numbers pop yet,” Allen [Chicago Board of Elections spokesman Jim Allen] said. “This will be a first if the trend continues.”
With just one more week of early voting left, Cook County Clerk David Orr, a Democrat, doesn’t mince words: “There is certainly a scare here for the Democrats.”
Consider too that Chicago “has lost its No. 2 ranking in African-American population to Atlanta, which has become a magnet for blacks because of its lower cost of living and strong economy” and it looks as though a key Democratic constituency in Illinois is not waiting for the election but has already voted with their feet for jobs and prosperity out of state.
So Cook County early voters are turning out as they should, some of the Obama coalition have just left Illinois, and liberal pundits are getting gloomy. The Daily Herald’s Burt Constable’s “Stink bug enters political fray” and Rich Miller’s “Senate, gov hopefuls leave voters wanting” reflect the funk.
Yet for the first time ever, John Powers writes in the Chicago Daily Observer, “a group of volunteers has recruited over 500 new Republicans to be election judges in Chicago this year, giving the Republicans a full slate of election judges for the first time in memory.”
So some folks are sticking to Illinois and even stepping up to the plate for the tough job of GOP election judge in Chicago. No despair for them. What’s happening now’s going to play out in the mayoral race too. Some folks are getting energized about some real changes.
MARYLAND
Key Races: Governor, U.S. House
If you believe the Baltimore Sun and its pollsters, the race for governor between incumbent Martin O’Malley and Bob Ehrlich is becoming a runaway. The paper’s latest poll has O’Malley up by a whopping 14 points, or 52-38. According to this poll, Democrats in Maryland are staying in the O’Malley camp and not crossing over to vote for the Republican Ehrlich.
But not so fast, say both the Ehrlich camp and the Maryland Republican Party. Moreover, the Red Maryland website rightfully points out that the pollster behind the Sun poll and the “straight down the middle” website Center Maryland have ties to O’Malley allies. It is difficult to believe that a race could go from 5 points to 14 points in a matter of days.
However, the dubious polling in the Sun and the Washington Post (which also shows a 14-point margin in a poll released this week), may have had its desired effect: Through the first two days of early voting (last Friday and Saturday; the 6-day period ends Thursday) Democrats in the state were actually voting in a better percentage than the GOP (see page 2 here.) However, the saving grace may be that turnout for early voting has been much better in Maryland’s more rural counties where Democrats are more likely to be conservative and cross over to the GOP side. Unless trends change drastically, an O’Malley win may well come from the same five counties he won in 2006 (Baltimore City, Charles, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George’s), with the other nineteen smaller, predominantly rural counties helping Ehrlich’s total.
The news is better for the GOP in the First District, where the big spending between Andy Harris and Frank Kratovil has pushed the seat into the “leans Republican” column; perhaps the state can get back to the 6-2 split it had between 2002 and 2008, when the Democrat Kratovil won a formerly safe GOP district.
But consideration should be given to the Fifth District race as well. It’s widely expected that Steny Hoyer will beat GOP upstart Charles Lollar, but the fact that Hoyer has to work and spend money on his own campaign means he can’t assist Kratovil or other Democrats across the country. Much like Barney Frank’s battle with Sean Bielat in Massachusetts, the fact a venerable Congressional old-timer is even facing a race shows the Maryland GOP isn’t completely dead — like any other state party apparatus, it just needs good candidates.
That needs to be the lesson going forward for Republicans in Maryland and other “blue” states. Retreads don’t always work, but conservatives who make the election about pocketbook issues and the proper role of government can win.
The lesson this year could be that if you spend millions of dollars of your own money on your own campaign, it doesn’t mean you’re going to win. Even in this media-obsessed society of ours, nothing succeeds like a good idea. Perhaps if these big-spending candidates hit their opponents more on substance rather than on personal attacks, they would get farther. Also, candidates like Linda McMahon have to start showing what they WILL do in Washington, instead of what the other guy will do. She needs to show that she understands Congress and how she will get things done. Politicians can promise anything (like our dear “friend” Obama proved in our last election). People want to now know how you’re going to deliver on those promises. Everything else is just noise.
ATTENTION NEVADANS:
DO NOT BE DUPED into voting for “TPN” (Tea Party of Nevada) candidate Scott Ashjian. The TPN is nothing but a Democrat front group to siphon votes towards career politician and radical leftwinger Harry Reid:
New York Times: Democrats Backing Fake Tea Party Candidates
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/harry-reid-scott-ashjian/2010/10/24/id/374718
Tea Party Knockoffs: Watered Down, Bitter
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/tea-party-knockoffs-watered-down-bitter/
Washington Times: 3rd-party candidates could tip tight races
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/oct/24/3rd-party-candidates-could-tip-tight-races/?page=3
LVRJ: THE POLITICAL EYE: Skeptics question Tea Party of Nevada
http://www.lvrj.com/news/skeptics-question-tea-party-of-nevada-84939927.html
ONLY A VOTE FOR SHARRON ANGLE WILL “REJECT REID”, Chicago-style thuggery and Marxist-style Communism currently infecting D.C.!
Political Shenanigans and Political Simpletons
It had to be expected.
With all the vitriol erupting out of both political parties, with the Democrat president skimming the bottom of the approval barrel at 37% and VP Joe Biden calling the imminent midterm election “more important” than 2008, with all the Dem guns–big guns and little guns–out on the hustings trying to salvage what’s salvageable next Tuesday, with a prominent Rhode Island Democrat telling Obama to “shove it,” things were bound to get dirty.
Dirtier, I should say. And they have gotten dirtier, in fact, ugly.
Thus, in Chicago, where strange things seem to happen around election time, and at other times, a few hundred thousand potential mail-in voters may be SOL when it comes to having their choices count because a “glitch” happened. Aside from the absurdity of voting by mail there was another absurdity: their ballots were misdirected to the IDCC, the Illinois Democratic Coordinated Council, and they may not get postmarked by the deadline.
Thus, in Kentucky during the Rand Paul-Jack Conway final debate to make Kentucky voters aware of where their candidates stand, a MoveOn.org operative fell while attempting to disrupt the debate, had her blonde wig ripped off, and then, adding injury to insult, claimed she was stepped on by a Rand supporter.
Thus, at the same debate, a Rand Paul supporter, a woman who recently had had foot surgery and was wearing a surgical boot, had that foot stomped on by a Conway guy. She had her incision torn open but both she and the other stompee refused medical treatment although both filed assault charges.
Thus, in Vegas and in New Bern, N.C., . . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=2389)
In VA-5, Periello and his allies (including the SEIU and an ACORN front group) have been running absolutely nonstop attack ads, trying to saddle Hurt with everything for voting against veterans to voting for tax increases (all bogus distortions) The fact that Robert (a friend of mine, BTW, and a good guy) is nonetheless up by six is a good indication that there aren’t enough lefties in Charlottesville-Albemarle to overcome the rest of an essentially conservative district.
About Virginia-8, the ‘untouchable’ seat of Jim Moran may be in trouble now that he has insulted members of the military, deriding theirs as not ‘public service’.
Latest poll shows: Moran 32.3%, Murray 29.7% and UNDECIDED 30.5%
Murray needs a little pick up in name recognition to grab those undecideds.
First, Bryan, you’ve done a great job of helping us stay abreast of the wide-ranging issues and trends in this crucial election. Thank you.
Second, while I encourage everyone to NOT count votes before they’re cast, I strongly believe the polls are under-reporting the full force and fury of the “middles” – the middle class, middle America (or as Couric characterizes us, the great unwashed of flyover country), and the moderate/independent middle.
Why? I’m a small-business owner and dyed-in-the-wool GDI (‘gosh-darn’ independent). The owner of one of our partner companies is a registered Dem with centrist leanings. Many of my clients are Rs. Not one of us has participated in ANY election survey (and I’m receiving at least one and sometimes multiple survey calls every single day).
This informal sampling represents Republicans, Dems and Indies who may not participate in surveys, but who do show up and vote. ALL of us, in private conversations, have acknowledged we’re voting NO to every levy, every tax hike, every government-expanding local and state issue, and every candidate who has supported any of these. Practically speaking, that means we’re all voting the R-ticket (even though our state and local races have more than a few Rinos).
Finally, no matter what BO says, Nov 2 is a referendum on him, his party, his minions and his actions in office.
..one of the fallacies of polling is that opinions are sought while the person being poled is sitting on the couch in the comfort of his home. No absolutely definitive measure has been devised to determine if he or she will get up off the couch, get in the car, drive to the polling place, and cast the vote.
It is hard to exactly measure motivation.
It is not hard to measure. They just don’t do it.
Pollsters ask me:
Are you certain to vote; likely to vote; May not vote; Not going to vote?
They do not ask, “Are you damned-skippy, sure-as-Hell, Vengeance-on-your-mind going to vote?
If they did, they would have a more accurate picture. ;D
Sadly, motivation doesn’t always translate into action, and we all know which road is “paved with good intentions.” Your survey response option nails it: I am damned-skippy, sure-as-hell, vengence-on-my-mind going to vote. The PTB have absolutely no grasp of the depth, breadth and intensity of fury and commitment rising among we, the “middles.”
I live in SC, just South of Charleston in the 6th Congressional District, the racist district which is drawn to exclude whites and capture blacks, which has been held by King Clyburn (the House Majority Whip) for decades.
Anyways, I recieved a phone call, which requested that I answer some questions. I assumed it was push polling or real polling for the election, and being a political junkie, I was excited about participating.
Then 2nd Question they asked, after, are you registered to vote, was “What race are you?” To which I hesitantly answered Caucasian. They immediately ended the polling, politely but quickly.
Why am I not surprised!
Who or What Is Barney Frank?
Democrat Congressman Barney Frank’s website gives this quickie introduction: “Barney Frank has been in Congress since 1981. He is the Chairman of the Financial Services Committee. Previously he was a Massachusetts State Representative and an assistant to the Mayor of Boston. He has also taught at several Boston area universities.”
Would that that were all that could be said about the representative of Massachusetts’ 4th c.d.
The second member of the United States House of Representatives to openly declare his homosexuality, in 1987, according to Wikipedia, Barney shares his Newton, MA. duplex with his current “partner,” Jim Ready of Maine when both are in town. Sister to Democrat Ann Lewis, DNC operative and advisor to Hillary Clinton in 2008, Barney’s net worth as of that year was claimed to be $972,150.
Not bad at all for a nice, Jewish boy from Bayonne whose father managed a truck stop and served a year in the clinker.
Wikipedia provides precious little other information about Barney’s “personal life” but does say, correctly, that, “He is considered to be one of the most powerful members of Congress, which also makes him the most powerful homosexual in Congress and he’s never been reticent to exercise that power with gay legislation and causes.
What Wikipedia notably omits are references to the scandals of Rep. Barney Frank, principally consorting with a male prostitute, Steven Gobie, whom he later hired as a “personal assistant” and who used Barney’s Washington basement as a homosexual brothel. Barney’s fellow Dems didn’t see any of that as worthy of expulsion or even of censure.
It must be nice to work with good, Democrat buddies. . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=2419)